Some things to read while staring out the window waiting for spring.

As noted in the FanShots, the NL Gold Gloves were handed out yesterday. No Brewers were selected. Meanwhile, Baseball Musings' Probabilistic Model of Range ranks Brewer shortstops first in all of baseball, and J.J. Hardy as the best full-time defensive shortstop in baseball. The first award will get more publicity, but the second one is the one with the actual correlation to being good at defense. Rollins, by the way, was about the sixth best full-time shortstop.

While we're on the subject of awards, here's two more: CC Sabathia finished fourth in the voting, behind Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and Brandon Webb in the SB Nation NL Cy Young Voting. Sabathia took third, behind Lincecum and Santana, in Baseball Prospectus' awards.

Also, as noted in the FanShots, CC Sabathia is still telling friends he won't play in New York.

As I write this, 72% of voters in the poll think bringing Mike Cameron back for 2009 was the right decision, with 15% voting no and 12% voting for cheese. That's about what I expected public opinion to be, which is why I was surprised to see almost 60% of voters at JSOnline vote no.

If you are one of the small percentage of BCB readers (or large percentage of JS readers) who want Cameron gone, then you'll be happy to note the rumor that he could be traded to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera and pitching. I guess Cabrera is young and cheap, but for this deal to make sense to me it'd have to net a lot of pitching.

We haven't talked about Corey Hart in a while. According to Beyond the Box Score, Gabe Gross and Nelson Cruz were among the top 25 right fielders in 2008, but Corey Hart was not.

Hot stove notes:

Brave Elmer Dessens filed for free agency.
Dodger Brad Penny had his option for 2009 declined. Also, Russell Martin may not be on the move after all, even for a package that could have netted Scott Olsen and Dan Uggla.
Marlin Scott Olsen could be acquired for a catcher - the Marlins have targeted Ranger Max Ramirez.
White Sox Javier Vazquez and Nick Swisher are reportedly on the trading block.

Drink up.

Tracking Winter League baseball is quickly becoming the hardest part of this gig. But I couldn't make myself take a day off, because my calendar says it's Health & Sports Day in Japan.

In Arizona: Taylor Green went 1-for-4 with 2 strikeouts in the Javelina's 7-5 loss to the Saguaros on Friday. Box Score

Then, on Saturday, Brae Wright pitched a scoreless inning while giving up two walks and a hit (Hold, 2), and Omar Aguilar pitched a scoreless inning around a hit and a walk, but the Javelinas lost to the Saguaros again, 5-2.

Elsewhere in Arizona, Lou Palmisano, on loan to the Mesa Solar Sox until the Phillies' season is over, went 1-for-3 with a double in Mesa's 2-1 loss to Surprise.

The AFL was off yesterday, presumably so everyone could watch football.

In Hawaii: Logan Schafer and Caleb Gindl both went 0-for-4 Friday, and Mike Ramlow struck out three and gave up 3 hits in 3 innings of scoreless relief as the CaneFires fell to Waikiki, 2-1. Box Score

Saturday, no Brewers played and Waikiki dominated the CaneFires, 13-3. Box Score

Sunday, Caleb Gindl and Logan Schafer went 0-for-4 each again, but Chris Cody allowed just one run on one hit and one walk over five innings as the CaneFires tied Waikiki 1-1 in 10 innings.

In the Mexican Pacific League: Erasmo Ramirez made his winter ball debut last night, giving up two runs on three hits and two strikeouts in just one inning of work, as the Algodoneros de Guasave (Guasave Cottongrowers) defeated Mochis, 11-3. Box Score

Today, the Javelinas play at Phoenix at 2:35 Central time, the Algodoneros play in Mochis at 6 pm Central, and the CaneFires are off.

Possibly the highest-profile Brewer still playing, 2008 first round pick Brett Lawrie is profiled over at The Official Site as he works to transition from Team Canada to instructional league.

Of course, one other player who spent time in the Brewers organization is still active: Gabe Gross. The Brewers probably could have used Gross down the stretch, but no worries, they got Josh Butler for him, and he scorched his way to a 5.36 ERA with a WHIP over 1.5 in Brevard County.

View From Bernie's Chalet has an offseason to-do list for the Brewers, including his thoughts on Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia, Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy.

Speaking of Sheets, The Hardball Times estimates he'll get either four or five years and between $55 and $65 million as a free agent.

And speaking of Sabathia, here's today's Sabathia Smorgasbord: John Shea of the SF Gate gives the Brewers a 10-to-1 shot at retaining him. That's better than the 100-1 odds posted last week. John Brattain of Baseball Digest Daily says the Players Union may play a role in deciding where Sabathia will pitch next season.

And speaking of Hardy, Baseball by Paul ranked him as the eighth best shortstop for 2009.

It should come as no surprise that Joe Maddon won Beyond the Box Score's AL Manager of the Year award. What is surprising, however, is Ned Yost's appearance on four NL ballots, tying him for fifth place. Dale Sveum also appeared on two ballots and took ninth.

Every now and then TheJay notices something I would never have seen. Today, for example, he notes that Carlos Villanueva is one of just 12 pitchers since 2000 to wear a uniform number lower than 13.

Todd Coffey, on the other hand, was the only Brewer to walk into a railing while staring down Jeff Brantley.

On the hot stove: The Giants added three pitchers to the market over the weekend, removing Tyler Walker, Kevin Correia and Brad Hennessey from their 40-man roster.

This Philly.com story about the interesting paths some Phillies took to the majors is an interesting read. It made me wonder how many near-misses are out there. Could there be 10, 20 or more Jamie Moyers out there who never got a chance? (h/t Baseball Musings)

Should Ron Santo be in the Hall of Fame? Don Ehrke of Dugout Central makes the case against him.

Oh, and even the lobsters are catching Rays Fever in Tampa. Not the Rally Lobster, though.

Drink up.

Here are some lyrics from the "Weird" Al Yankovic song, Albuquerque: "You got any ability to play like a winning team in September?"
"No! We're out of ability to play like a winning team in September!"

Sunday's Win Probability Graph
Sunday's BR Box Score

Saturday's Win Probability Graph
Saturday's BR Box Score

Friday's Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score

I have a handful of links today, but nothing more entertaining than Tyler Maas' day in the life of Craig Counsell. So I'll lead with that.

So on Friday I started a conversation about general managers. I noted that Doug Melvin seems to be losing some ground among fans and Jack Zduriencik is still being called a GM of the future. I expected some discussion but a general consensus towards keeping Melvin around for next season. What I got instead was a poll showing 60% of readers think Jack Z should be GM next season. I'm surprised.

This is never good: the 2008 Brewers are being compared to the final scenes in Animal House.

Ray Durham hasn't played since straining his hamstring Friday. I haven't seen any reports on the seriousness of the injury. Rickie Weeks went 3-for-4 in his place on Saturday, but went 0-for-4 with 3 K's yesterday. Weeks is still hitting .310/.431/.548 in September.

Crawfish Boxes took a look at the long-term ramifications of Ben Sheets' most recent injury.

Statistically Speaking ranked CC Sabathia 3rd on his NL Cy Young ballot.

Jon Heyman is playing World Series matchmaker. Once he's done combining every possible big-market matchup, he notes that a Twins-Brewers WS would be pretty cool too.

The Brewers have fallen all the way to 15th in Phil Rogers' power rankings and 16th in the Whisnant Rankings.

On injuries:

Matt Holliday missed action over the weekend with a stiff back but could play again tomorrow.
Blue Jays SP Shaun Marcum will need Tommy John surgery and is out for the rest of 2008 and all of 2009.
Hideki Matsui has been shut down for the season and will have knee surgery today.
Marlins SP Anibal Sanchez left Friday's start with a leg injury.
Angels SP Joe Saunders will miss his scheduled start tomorrow with a kidney stone.

While we're on the topic of injuries, what are your expectations for an injured player on a non-contending team? Dusty Baker and Hal McCoy are making an issue of the fact that Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper haven't been seen around the Reds clubhouse since injuries ended their seasons. Should it be an issue?

Looking for a "buy low" candidate pitcher for 2009? Are you desperate enough to consider Russ Ortiz? Apparently he's eying a 2009 comeback.

Or, you could buy really low and trade for Adam Kennedy, due $3.3 million next season and hitting .269/.303/.343 in 2008. He's upset because he's not getting to play everyday in St. Louis. I can't imagine why.

Oh, and here's an exchange between Gabe Gross and Abraham Lincoln. Classic.

Drink up.

To listen to the announcers last night and read the paper the last few days, you'd think that we left center field and the number two spot empty for the first 25 games, just waiting to get Mike Cameron back so that we could really start our season.

Cameron's a good player, and he's definitely better than the alternatives.  Yes, even Gabe Kapler.  But let's be reasonable and try to get a sense of how much Cameron is likely to help this team.

Oddly enough, one possible answer is: Not very much.

Granted, Kapler and Tony Gwynn probably played above their heads, but including last night's game (because I'm lazy), the aggregate center field line for the Brewers so far is 294/342/451.  That's pretty darn good for center field--in fact, it's as far above average for the position as any other position on the club.  (I know, that isn't saying much.)  Even more impressive when you consider it included 44 PAs of Gabe Gross's sub-300 SLG, and 1 PA of Hernan Iribarren's OPS of zero.

Click over to FanGraphs if you want to see a whole bunch of projections for Cameron.  My system of choice, ZiPS, gives Cameron a 254/341/447 line.  In other words, basically the same as we've gotten so far.

As I've said, we couldn't have expected the platoon (Kaplynn?) to keep producing at that level, but at the plate, Cameron is probably not going to give us a boost. 

If you want to compare Cameron's offense to what he is replacing on the '07 team, we'll have to look back at the glory days of the Menchkins platoon.  Hall and Braun are probably going to give us about what they gave us last year (more of Braun, but probably not quite so phenomenal), so on offense, Cameron steps in for the left fielders.

Last year, the two-headed monster gave us production of 261/318/453.  It's a little worse than the Cameron projections, but not enough to make a big difference.  So again, at the plate, acquiring Cameron is a wash.  (On the field, anyway; off the field, Cameron is cheaper than Menchkins was, uses one fewer roster spot, and doesn't require special hat orders.)

Of course, I've gotten an awful long ways into a discussion of Mike Cameron without touching on his defense.  I guess I saved the best for last.

As you all probably know, Cameron is an elite defender.  Defensive metrics make it hard to anoint a winner, but he is possibly the best center fielder in baseball.  According to RZR (leaders in 2007 , or 2006), he's among the top few in the league along with Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, and Juan Pierre.  (RZR doesn't take outfield arms into effect.)

Another data point: according to MGL's proprietary Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) system, Cameron was among the top CFs from 2000-2003 , as well.  (You'll have to scroll down to find the CFs.)  In fact, in that span, he's the highest-rated player who was a regular for the better part of those four years.  I wouldn't put too much stock in 5-8 year old defensive data--guys slow down, even guys who take a lot of stimulants--but it shows that the 06-07 data is no fluke.

There's no good way to know whether Kapler and Gwynn would have been as good in the field as Cameron will be; we just won't accumulate the data.  (*Someone* might have play-by-play and hit location data for Gwynn's time in the minors, but *someone* is kind of lazy in crunching the numbers.) 

As I noted in my article about defense earlier this week, the outfield has been strong, and it seems like a good bet that Ryan Braun is not to blame for that.  So as the conventional wisdom would indicate, Kapler is a pretty good defensive center fielder, though almost certainly not in the same league as Cameron.

So...that's what we have to expect from our shiny new toy.  He's not our savior--there are a lot of other bats in the lineup that have to play that role right now--but he is a key part of the offseason plan that turned the Brewers into what is most likely a solid defensive team.

(Witty open goes here). It's time for a Frosty Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason odds: 85.5 wins and 21.7% chance of winning the Central.

A side note from the BP Odds: 21 games into the season, the D-Backs are already being given a 67% chance of winning the NL West, which was supposed to be one of baseball's tightest divisional races.

Jim Powell's blog may be the best place to start today. He talks about Fielder, Turnbow, Gabe Gross and Geoff Jenkins.

Tom H. notes that one year ago, April 23 of 2007, Derrick Turnbow also saved a game where Prince hit two home runs. Considering Turnbow hadn't saved a game since, I thought it was an interesting coincidence.

Can great Brewer moments influence history? Bugs and Cranks seems to think so.

The Hardball Times looks at the future of Yovani Gallardo.

ESPN the Magazine ranked the Brewers fourth in all of MLB in Fan Satisfaction Rankings. Just think where they'd rank if there were more toilets outside.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Rangers P Kason Gabbard has been DL'ed with a sore lower back.
Reds OF Norris Hopper was placed on the DL with "elbow inflammation."
Daisuke Matsuzaka missed last night's scheduled start with the flu.
Mariners P Carlos Silva left last night's game with a thigh injury. It doesn't appear to be serious.

If you missed it yesterday, or you read the site via RSS so you don't see Fanshots at all, the Reds fired GM Wayne Krivsky yesterday and replaced him with Walt Jocketty. It seems awfully early to be making big changes.

The Cubs picked up their 10,000th win last night. As Dave Pinto notes at Baseball Musings, that's about 75 wins/season since 1876.

Elsewhere in the Central, Fungoes decries the folly of having 13 pitchers on the Cardinals roster, but fails to mention that the Brewers had 14 pitchers during the same series.

Ah, the wonders of a Youtube era. Now, you too can bring your camera to the ballpark and shoot crappy, incoherent video of a Mets reliever responding to the drunken masses during warmups. If you're bored today, take a moment to look at some of the shooter's other "work" and feel better about your life.

Credibility fades fast when you do things like this: Last night, reports came out that Frank Thomas had signed with the A's. But he hasn't yet.

The circle of life continues: Gabe Gross was the odd man out in Milwaukee so he was traded to Tampa, causing Dan Johnson to be the odd man out for the second time in April.

Beyond the Box Score takes a great look at ball and strike calls and how they vary based on several demographic issues. An interesting confirmation of what we've suspected all along: veterans get calls.

True Blue LA takes a look at the world around him and reaches an interesting conclusion: Sabermetrics and stat work have become so commonplace that having a stat guy on hand no longer gives teams an advantage. He says Sabermetrics are dead, but that's like saying the internet is dead because everyone uses it.

Baseball Musings passes along a great list of hitting tips to distribute by age.

The Mariners are encouraging fans to bring their Nintendo DS to the game to chat with other fans, look at stats and order food and drinks from their seats. I have a DS, and if I could bring it to the game and do that, I'd absolutely bring it along.

We're only a couple of days in, but turnout so far has been underwhelming for this week's Fan Opinion Poll. If you haven't voted yet, please do so. Also, thanks to Dan Walsh at The Daily Drink for his help promoting it.

That's all for today. If you'd like to submit a link for inclusion in tomorrow's Mug, drop it in the comments. Drink up.

Good morning. With 12 wins in our first 20, we're sitting two back of the Cubs and half a game back of the Cardinals. Tonight, we open a two game series against Geoff Jenkins and the Phillies. Time for a Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason odds putting the Brewers at 84.8 wins with a 21% chance of winning the Central.

As you've most likely heard, following yesterday's game Gabe Gross was traded to Tampa for a warm body who's struggling in A ball. Brewers Bar has a nice farewell post. I still think Gabe will be a productive everyday outfielder somewhere, but I know it wasn't going to be here, so I'm glad to see him getting a chance somewhere else.

All of a sudden, there's rumblings that Eric Gagne might be pulled from the closer's spot. Admittedly, I'm not real excited about his performance yesterday, but Gagne had pitched in four straight games and warmed up in the fifth straight on Monday before pitching in the sixth game Tuesday. I don't think any closer would pitch exceptionally well in that situation. I think the Gagne signing was a mistake and his most effective days are past him, but pulling him now would be a mistake too.

Speaking of struggling relievers, apparently Ned's not done with Turnbow.

If you're looking for the whiniest possible recap of yesterday's game, Bugs and Cranks has it. Bring your violin.

The chatter around Fielder's new diet must be getting louder in the clubhouse, because now even Ned Yost is commenting on it.

Dugout Central says Brewer fans are the unluckiest in baseball. They make a decent case. But, with that said, Midwest Airlines seems to value them more than most customers.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Josh Beckett was scratched from yesterday's game with a stiff neck.
Orlando Hernandez will be in a boot for two more weeks and still can't throw the banana.
Rangers P Dustin Nippert has been placed on the DL with a sore right foot.
Indians P Jake Westbrook is on the DL with a rib cage strain.
Mariners OF Brad Wilkerson was pulled from yesterday's game with a sore hamstring.

Cubs GM Jim Hendry has advanced to the second round of Bucs Dugout's Worst GM Tournament, and now faces Astros GM Ed Wade in the second round. Go cast a vote, if you're so inclined.

Could Charlie Manuel have been a Civil War General? Tim McCarver seems to think so.

That's all for today. If you have an item for inclusion in tomorrow's Mug, drop it in the comments. Drink up.

I haven't read any official announcements as to who is in or out of the starting rotation, but for tonight anyway, it appears that Villanueva's spot is safe.  Maybe that means Ned is trying to keep his main guys on a regular schedule; maybe it means Bush is out of the rotation.  Whatever it means, we have Carlos to look forward to tonight, and he's taking on Adam Wainwright.

Tom H has the lineups, and there are no surprises.  With a righty on the mound, Gross is in there again.  I know some of you are apoplectic about all the playing time Gross has gotten, but he does have a .763 career OPS against righties, while Kapler's OPS vRH is .724.  It's not a slam-dunk decision either way, but there's no reason to think that just because Gross is off to a rough start (in all of 44 PAs) means that his career is over and the Brewers are handicapped every time he's in the lineup.

While you're waiting for the game to start, give KLSnow some feedback as to who the AL award winners are up to this point.  So far we've got a grand total of three votes, including his and mine.

Finally, the project-a-tron likes our chances back at Miller Park:

• Brewers 5.1
• Cardinals 4.65
• Brewers WinExp: 58%

It didn't look that way in the last series, but I still maintain that the bottom of the Cardinals lineup (Molina/Kennedy/pitcher/Izturis) could be brutal.  Let's hope Villanueva got that memo.

Go Brewers!

I'll be watching two things today: the Brewers game, and the weather in Queens.  If a rainstorm or two gets in the way of me seeing Johan Santana vs. Ben Sheets, I will be one furious Brewers fan.

Anyway, getaway day today, and the rubber game of the series, all starting at noon.  Aaron Harang takes on Carlos Villanueva.  Ned is sticking to his lineup, notwithstanding protests from Tom H.  (No, there's not a law, but unless you think Gabe Gross's true talent level is that of an .091 hitter and Gabe Kapler's is that of a .438 hitter, it's not a bad idea.) 

Dusty keeps juggling, with Keppinger back in the 2 slot and Encarnacion and Bako back in the lineup.  Last night aside, the conventional wisdom is wrong: Cinci doesn't have all that great of an offense. 

Project-a-tron says:

• Brewers 4.43
• Reds 4.33
• Brewers WinExp: 55%

Go Brewers!

Admit it, you're excited: You want to see Johnny Cueto just as much as the next guy.

Of course, you'd also like to see Cueto's first drubbing.

Mr. Haudricourt has the lineups; just click here.  Gwynn is still hurting, so Gross is batting second, while everything else is as per usual, with Suppan on the mound.  The JS Blog also has an interview with Cordero.

I've kept playing with my game-prediction spreadsheet.  Here's what it considers so far, using ZiPS projections for all players:

• OBP and SLG for all starting position players -- that, plus the starting lineups, gives us an run estimation for each offense.  (It would be nice to incorporate platoon splits, but that's a ways off.)
  
• IP and RA (run average--not just earned runs) for both starters--using those, we predict how many innings the starter will last and how many runs they'll give up in that time.
• RA for every member of both bullpens.  This is the weakest part of my model. I just average the RA's for all relievers to get a bullpen RA.  I figure the bullpen will pitch the number of innings that the starter doesn't (good assumption, that one) and use the collective RA to figure out how many runs the bullpens will allow.
• Park factors.  ZiPS are park adjusted, so the Brewers numbers are right, but I need to adjust the Reds runs and runs allowed to Miller Park.
• Home field advantage.  Historically, the home team wins about 54% of the time.   I do something a little bit (but not much) more sophisticated than just tacking on 4% to the home team's win expectancy.

Shove all that into a spreadsheet, find the expected run totals, and generate a win expectancy for both teams.  Today, your projected final score is:

• Brewers 5.21
• Reds 3.95
• Brewers win expectancy: 65%

To which I say, "Stupid spreadsheet!  Don't you know the Cueto is the most awesome rookie pitcher ever?"  Well, ZiPS isn't ready to anoint Cueto a Hall of Famer just yet, so neither is my spreadsheet.

Go Brewers!