So, sometime around the sixth inning of last night's game, I got an email from a Cubs fan, offering a thank you for taking 3 of 4 from the Cardinals. Just to make sure he didn't get too far ahead of himself, I sent him this.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

Obviously, it's smiles all around after Dave Bush put up a nice performance last night and Ryan Braun's bat sent a couple more baseballs screaming into the masses. But, in the JS Online game story, there's still a hint of Ned being Ned:

Kudos to Anthony Witrado for publishing that exchange and coming through with more than just the "it's early" refrain.

Adam Charles at Bugs and Cranks thinks last night's game was just part of an elaborate plot by Tony LaRussa. We're still waiting for the twist.

The Grand National Championships has a quick rant on bullpen management and closers. I will give credit to Ned for pitching Gagne in a non-save situation last night and giving him an opportunity to straighten himself out.

Last night's game didn't involve a save situation, but it did involve two teams going closer by committee. Baseball Musings asks what happens if it works.

Not only did Dave Bush pick up his first win of the season last night, he also qualified to start in row 7 of the Hank Aaron 755, Big League Stew's race for players with NASCAR names.

The Padres have designated Rule 5 pick Callix Crabbe for assignment (also noted here in the Fanshots), meaning the Brewers could have him back. Al doesn't seem to think they'll be interested, but it's middle infield depth, how could they not be?

On injuries:

Rafael Furcal will miss the upcoming series with the Brewers after being placed on the DL with a lower back injury.
Marlins P Scott Olsen isn't hurt, but he was having a hard time regaining velocity after his 8 2/3 inning, 121 pitch outing against the Brewers last week.

Here's pretty much all you need to know about Dayn Perry: He thinks Carlos Zambrano should win the Cy Young even though Brandon Webb is 8-0, has thrown more innings, struck out more batters and has a lower WHIP. I know compiling award ballots can be hard, but writing Webb in for Cy Young is a no-brainer at this point.

Apparently he hits other teams, too: Lance Berkman had stretches last week where he went 16-for-20 and 19-for-25. That second feat had only been accomplished once in the last 50 years.

David Sloane is the agent for Carlos Delgado. He's making Delgado a lot of money, but the Mets 1B is his only client. Why, you ask? Because he's insane.

Oh, and here's video of an unassisted triple play.

Drink up.

It's Adam Wainwright vs. Dave Bush.  For more than you ever wanted to know about where Bush is at right now, just scroll down.  For a whole bunch of matchups, here's the BR Game Preview.  For instance, Pujols has a .490 career OPS against Bush, which may have something to do with why LaRussa is saving him for, oh, I don't know, a pinch-hit AB against Torres.  1.083 OPS in 28 plate appearances.  Maybe, uh, Bush will throw a complete game.

Game time is 7:05, and it's the last time this year the Cardinals will play in Miller Park, at least until the NLCS.

Go Brewers!

One of the key questions for the Brewers over the next couple of weeks is: Just how good is Dave Bush?  Or, more specifically: How good can we expect him to be between now and October?

There's no disputing the fact that Bush has pitched poorly thus far.  His ERA is about 7.00, and while his FIP is better, it's only a run less.  If you think his performance with runners on is something that will continue, it's possible that his FIP is overly optimistic.  His xFIP (adjusting for the number of fly balls that leave the park) is better yet, but at 5.29, it's still not something he's about to put on his business card.

All of these numbers, though, refer to 5 starts.  30 innings.  It's certainly troublesome that the only 2008 data we have to go on is so bad, but every league average pitcher is going to have a stretch like this.  Even Ben Sheets, in his tremendous 2004 campaign (season ERA: 2.70), had a stretch of 45+ IP in which his ERA was 5.40.

Do we know that Bush is just going through a rough time, and that he'll turn things around?  No, we don't.  But we are talking about a 28 year old pitcher with over 100 career starts, 60+ of which came on the same team in the same park against the same league.  Very few players fall apart in their late 20s, and a pitcher is much more likely to perform in line with a sample of 400+ IP than with a sample of 30.

ZiPS projected Bush to have an ERA of 4.64 this year.  That's actually on the pessimistic side as far as projections go; my system, MINER, forecast him 4.46, while CHONE, another extremely accurate system, figured him for 4.38.  Those numbers reflect historical data that suggests that pitchers in their late 20s generally keep chugging along at their established rates.  Even in Bush's bad-for-him 2007, he was just about average for a starting pitcher, and that's where the projections put him for 2008.

Of course, a projection isn't a guarantee.  I looked at the set of ZiPS projections from 2007 to see how starters with similar forecasts fared.  Here are 8 guys who were projected to have ERAs between 4.59 and 4.69, and how they did in 2007:

• Jon Garland, 4.23
• Joe Blanton, 3.95
• Paul Maholm, 5.02
• Matt Chico, 4.63
• Esteban Loaiza, 5.79 (in 7 GS)
• Miguel Batista, 4.29
  
• Ricky Nolasco, 5.48 (in 4 GS)
• Orlando Hernandez, 3.72

Of those, closest comp is probably Garland, as he's the only one on the list within a year of Bush's age.  This is all just for illustration -- there's a reason projections are based on huge pools of aggregate data, not simply on a small group of comparable players.  But the point should be clear: pitchers with similar track records to Bush's usually end up somewhere around that level.

Now to switch gears.  It's become fashionable in some stathead circles to say that "scouting knowledge trumps statistical forecasts."  The idea is that if a pitcher changes his arm slot, or loses velocity, or has a nagging injury, then all bets are off.  To some extent that's true, and thanks to the great work of guys like Josh, we can start to analyze some of those things in a more rigorous way than just pointing and frowning.

I'm no professional scout, but I find it hard to identify noticeable differences in Bush's skills this year compared to previous years.  He has never dominated, and even when he's pitching well, he seems to throw a lot of straight fastballs.  To say his 7.00 ERA is due to a bunch of straight fastballs is to ignore where his straight fastballs (plus excellent control) got him in the first place.

And for better or worse, one of the better ways we have of knowing whether something is really wrong is by seeing how a player's team treats him.  Obviously the Brewers weren't thrilled with what they saw in Vargas, or they would've kept him.  We don't know whether Maddux, Yost, and Melvin think that Bush is still as good as he has been for the last four years, but we can be pretty sure that they thought he was better than Vargas, and they now think he's better than DiFelice, Narveson, or McClung.  (That's not an enthusiastic endorsement, I know.)

In May 2006, Bush had one stretch that looks almost identical to his start this year.   Of course, it didn't turn out that he was done--he followed  it with seven quality starts in his next eight outings.  I have no idea whether we'll get anything like that from Bush starting tonight, but the preponderance of evidence we have to go on suggests we'll get something a whole lot more like 4.64 and a whole lot less like 6.98.

I can tell the Project-a-Tron is despondent, and what's more, it has lost all sense of reason.  It is forecasting a 0% chance of a Brewers win.  It's possible that the low probability is because I haven't filled anything in the fields for the Brewers lineup, so it thinks the Brewers will score zero runs, but I think it goes deeper than that.

Here's the BR Game Preview, which offers more hope than the estimable Mr. Tron.  Dave Bush is not only better than Jon Lieber, but he gave up one run in six innings last time he faced the Marlins.  He'll be facing Burke Badenhop, who is making his fifth major league start.  He was probably rushed to the majors, and hasn't been very good so far.  He's also a righty, though, so statistically, the Brewers are likely to bat about .000 against him.

Since I'm in a prickly mood, I'll send you over the JS Blog, where the real journalist is sharing the batting order.  These two paragraphs illustrate the difference between slackers like me and the professionals who know how to do their jobs:

Emersed in a four-game skid and an even longer hitting slump, the Brewers are status quo with the batting order. Although, it's not like many changes could be made to fix the problem even though the general consensus with blog posters seems to be moving Weeks out of the leadoff spot.

His average is low. His OBP is low. But he is scoring runs, so that kinda goes a long way ... but for how much longer?

Right-o, buddy.  Blogging = random application of words to text editor.

Go Brewers!

An off day is always a good time to practice thinking positive thoughts.

BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 79.2 and 8.2% to win the Central.

Yesterday's off day was also a pretty quiet one around the web. In fact, the biggest news is likely that there will be no news surrounding the closer's spot.

On closers, Eric Seidman at Fangraphs is working to develop a new stat that's more accurate than a pure save total. I like where he's going with it.

In his most recent "That's Debatable" at ESPN.com, Jerry Crasnick says the Brewers have too many pitching issues to overcome to be considered the top team in the NL Central.

Reportedly, the Mets are interested in Turnbow. Doug Melvin is sitting by the phone.

If you needed something disturbing to help you get through the day, here's Brian Shouse juxtaposed into classic art. Is juxtaposed the word I wanted? Perhaps I'm using it in the wrong situation...just like the Brewers use Shouse.

Here are the results from last week's Fan Opinion Poll:

• 52% of voters thought the Brewers made the right decision keeping Manny Parra on the roster and sending down Dave Bush. Of course, it's a moot point now.
• 70% of voters thought Mike Cameron should bat second. No other position got 10% of the vote.
• 52% thought Bill Hall should've swung away in the ninth inning of last Sunday's game. 43% favored the decision to bunt.
• 58% of voters were satisfied with the 13-pitcher roster. Also a moot point.
• Of those dissatisfied, 48% wanted more position players on the roster. Welcome back, Joe Dillon.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is down to 40%, with 32% disapproval and 26% unsure. He was at 47%/22%/29% last week.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is up slightly, at 84%, with 4% disapproval and 10% unsure. He was at 83%/4%/11% last week.
• 97% of voters approve of the Cameron signing and position changes.
• 60% approve of the Gagne signing, with 17% disapproval. That's up from 47% approval last week.
• 34% of voters think the Brewers shouldn't offer Ben Sheets a new contract until after the season. 31% think the Brewers should offer him a contract now and 24% think they shouldn't offer him one at all.

Full results here. A new poll may be posted today. If you have suggestions for questions in this week's poll, I'd welcome them. Drop them in the comments.

On injuries:

Braves IF Martin Prado injured his thumb sliding into first base in a 14-7 game. He's out 6-8 weeks.
Mariners P Jarrod Washburn had to leave last night's start with tightness in his right calf.
Rockies P Kip Wells will require surgery to remove a blood clot in his right hand.

Non-Brewer related: We've been talking an awful lot in the comments lately about umpiring. The Book has an interesting post today on Angel Hernandez and how he skews umpiring statistics. I'd try to offer a better summary of it, but the more I read, the more confused I get.

That's all for today. Post your suggestions for linkage in tomorrow's Mug and/or suggested poll questions in the comments. Drink up.

The title of this post is about the Cubs, but really, the post itself is much more about the Brewers.

Last night, Rich Hill walked the first four guys he faced.  Piniella pulled him from the game, and it was announced that Jon Lieber will replace him in the rotation.  Hill obviously has some issues to work through, and the longer it takes him to recover, the harder it will be for a contending team to put him back in the rotation.

This, of course, happened on the same day as the announcement regarding Gallardo's season-ending injury.  It's pretty clear that the loss of Gallardo for the season is worse than Hill's wildness (Hill cold be back in a month, for one thing), but  the effect may be closer than you think.

Before the season, I noted that the Cubs and Brewers rotations lined up very evenly.  You can argue about who is better in each slot, but there are a lot of similarities if you aren't tied to the "official" position on who was the "#2" or "#3" starter:

• The ace: Sheets / Zambrano
• The young stud: Gallardo / Hill
• The $10MM vet: Suppan / Lilly

Dempster or Marquis would be a decent analogue to Bush, though the biographical similarities break down in the last two spots.  Statistically, though, Dempster/Marquis will probably be about equivalent to Villa/Parra in 2008.

Both young studs are out for a while, and that leads us to:

• Initial reinforcements: Bush / Lieber
• 2008 ZiPS ERAs: 4.64 / 4.85

It'll take a lot more than this simple comparison to evaluate the impact of losing Gallardo, and it doesn't have as much to do with the Cubs as I'm suggesting here.  But if there's a moral to the story, it's this: sh*t happens.  It happens to every team, every year.  It happened to us yesterday, and it happened to our rival as well. 

The real test of any baseball team is what happens next.  That applies both in the psychological sense--can the team pull together and win despite losing a key player?--and the front office sense--is the team built to withstand a major injury?

The Brewers aren't as pitching-deep as they were two months ago, and that's been exposed in a way that most of us didn't anticipate.  But whatever you think of Dave Bush, he is very possibly the best #6 starter in the big leagues.  By that standard, Lieber isn't bad either, but he probably won't be as good.  The Cubs will survive yesterday's blow, and so will we.

I think I got a little too much frustration yesterday. Saturday night, the cruise control on my car went out about 350 miles from home. Narveson had a no-hitter going through 3 innings in Omaha yesterday before I jinxed it and he gave up the game-winning run in the 4th. Mike Cameron is jogging out his ground balls in AAA in a way that would make Johnny Estrada jealous. Omaha walked the bases loaded in the seventh, but Brad Nelson saw fit to swing and miss at 3 straight pitches to end the inning anyway.

Then I got back in the car and heard the last 3 innings of yesterday's game. One strategic note still irks me:

Craig Counsell walked in the 9th, which was great. So now we've got Bill Hall up, fresh off a seventh inning home run. Am I the only one who screamed when they told him to bunt? I know he's a big risk to strike out, but the pitcher can't find the strike zone and we handed them an out anyway. Advancing the runner via the sacrifice actually brought the win expectancy down, and was made completely irrelevant when Weeks walked too. Did this drive anyone else nuts? I had 300 more miles in the car to think about it, and it's still bugging me.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds have us at 84 wins and 19.7% to win the Central.

So Dave Bush has been sent to AAA to make room on the roster for Mike Cameron. Brewers Bar thinks Parra should've gone down instead. In-Between Hops says the buzz about Parra's inability to pitch deep into games is overblown and based on pitch counts. Today I have a new Fan Opinion Poll. I'm curious to hear what people think about this one. Results from last week's poll are below.

Adam Charles at Bugs and Cranks is using his excitement about the Cubs series to forget that the Brewers just lost to Wes Helms.

With the 16th pick in the first round, the Milwaukee Brewers selected Christian Friedrich, a LHP from Eastern Kentucky, in Minor League Ball's mock draft.

Phil Rogers ranked the Brewers 16th in his most recent power rankings, behind 3 NL Central teams. The Southpaw ranks them 8th and does a better job of including some eye candy with the rankings.

Speaking of rankings, Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun Times rated Miller Park 25th. I'll admit I haven't been to all (or even most) major league parks, and I'm not Miller Park's biggest fan, but I find 25th hard to believe.

On injuries:

Moises Alou may have broken his ankle in rehab.
Jorge Posada has a torn muscle in his rotator cuff.
John Smoltz left yesterday's start with discomfort in his shoulder.

No one's calling it an injury, but there does seem to be some concern and difference of opinion regarding Brett Myers' struggles to regain velocity.

No one, though, will doubt Joel Pineiro's flexibility.

Here are the results from last week's Fan Opinion Poll, with a record 168 votes:

• 48% of voters thought the Brewers should have 12 pitchers on their roster. 44% voted for 13.
• 25% of voters thought Derrick Turnbow should be the pitcher to go. 18% voted for Mitch Stetter and Seth McClung, 16% voted for Dave Bush and 15% voted for Manny Parra.
• 96% of voters thought Yovani Gallardo was brought back at just the right time.
• 69% of voters thought 3 consecutive days should be the limit for Eric Gagne.
• 36% of voters thought Ben Sheets will miss five to ten starts this season. 35% thought he will miss three to five.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is at 47%, with 22% disapproval and 29% unsure. He was at 78%/8%/12% last week.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is at 83%, with 4% disapproval and 11% unsure. He was at 97%/0%/2% last week.
• 94% of voters approved of the Cameron/Hall/Braun move.
• 47% of voters approved of the decision to sign Eric Gagne, down from 61% last week.
• 30% of voters thought the Brewers shouldn't offer Ben Sheets a contract until after the season. 29% think they should do it now, and 25% think they shouldn't do it at all.

Full results here.

To cast your vote in this week's poll, Click here. Last week's poll set a turnout record for the third straight week. Thanks to everyone who helped promote it, and if you can help us out this week, please do so.

That's all for today. Drink up.

Happy Patriot Day, Brewer fans. I've been away from the TV, radio and computer for most of the last 3 days, but coming home today I see that the Brewers took two of three and should've swept the Reds, and open today's series with the Cardinals a game back of first place. It's time for a Frosty Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
ESPN Video Highlights
Baseball Digest Daily recaps
BP Postseason odds projecting the Brewers for 84 wins and a 23.6% shot at winning the Central.

Let's talk about Ben Sheets for a moment. The team says Sheets will only have to push his next start back a day. That doesn't seem serious, but at the same time, they've gone up to 14 pitchers on the roster just to make sure they have enough to cover the delay. Jim Powell also says Sheets is feeling better. I'm not entirely sure how keeping a guy like Mitch Stetter on the roster would fix the problem, even if he wasn't.

Inside the Book asks if teams overvalue guys with great stuff but questionable control. Since we seem to be having occasional debates lately about the value of Derrick Turnbow, I thought this belonged in the top half of the Mug.

Brian Shouse's streak of 83 consecutive appearances without allowing a home run was the 14th longest all time.

If you thought everyone loved Paul Molitor, it turns out it's only almost everyone.

Thanks to all 142 of you who voted in last week's fan opinion poll. The results:

• 74% of voters thought Dave Bush should move to the bullpen in place of Seth McClung when Gallardo returned.
• 45% of voters thought Eric Gagne's position as closer should be re-evaluated at the end of April. 32% thought he should be re-evaluated at the All Star Break and 21% think he's the closer indefinitely.
• 82% of voters thought Prince Fielder's slow start had nothing to do with becoming a vegetarian.
• 66% of voters thought the Brewers should make an effort to limit Manny Parra's innings.
• Of those voters, 68% thought it should be done by skipping his spot in the rotation when possible.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is at 78%, up from 77% last week, with 8% disapproval and 12% unsure.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is at 97%, with one lone no vote and 2% unsure. Last week he was at 91%/5%/2%
• 96% of voters were in favor of the Cameron/Hall/Braun move.
• 61% of voters were in favor of the Gagne signing, with 17% opposed and 21% unsure.
• 35% of voters thought the team should offer Ben Sheets a long-term deal, with 29% wanting to wait until after the season, 19% opposed and 16% unsure.

Full results here. I'm hoping to write this week's poll today and post it later or tomorrow. If you have questions you'd like to see included, drop them in the comments.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Doug Davis is recovering well from surgery and throwing off flat ground. He could return in May.
Kosuke Fukudome missed last night's game with a cyst above his right eye, but should play today.
Chipper Jones was pulled from yesterday's game with a quad injury.
Alex Rodriguez was also pulled from yesterday's game with a quad injury.
Jimmy Rollins has been placed on the DL, but since he pinch-hit Saturday, he's not eligible to be placed retroactively.
David Weathers has been placed on the DL with nerve inflammation in his elbow.

Frank Thomas was released rather abruptly yesterday. Obviously, this will lead to lots of speculation about who he could help, but Landon Evanson at Bugs and Cranks likes him as a Twin.

This would be a much better reason to be cursed: Historical evidence suggests the Cubs may have thrown the 1918 World Series.

Now available: Hideo Nomo. Potentially available May 1: Bartolo Colon.

Bucs Dugout's tournament to determine the worst GM in baseball has moved on to the second round. Voting is open for the first matchup, Jon Daniels v. Bill Bavasi.

And while you're voting, go here as well and help me fill out my AL awards ballots. Thanks!

Drink up.

So, as Jeff mentioned in yesterday's Plastic Cup, I was on the road yesterday. A brief anecdote from the road:

The fiancee and I were traveling together yesterday, and my last item of business was finished a couple of hours before hers. So there I was, in the back of a coffee shop, headphones in, listening to the Brewers, waiting for the call that would say "it's time to go." I tuned in around the time Manny Parra was exiting. I spent about 4 innings wishing she would hurry up and call, as the game was...well, less than encouraging. But I was there when Prince's double tied it in the 8th, and I was trying hard not to make a scene when Ryan Braun singled to lead off the 10th...

And the phone rang. "Ok, I'm ready for you to pick me up." I reluctantly packed my things, walked to the parking garage, and by the time XM Radio could pick up reception, it was 5-3 in the bottom of the 10th. Not only did I miss Prince's first home run, I didn't even know that's how they scored until the post-game show. Hopefully I'll catch about 50 more of them this season to even it out.

Win Expectancy Graph
Baseball Reference Box Score
ESPN Video Highlights
Baseball Digest Daily Recaps

With the win, Baseball Prospectus' Postseason Odds have the Brewers winning exactly 81 games, with a 16.2% chance of winning the Central.

All kinds of stuff about Prince following the game:

Tom H. has Fielder's postgame quotes.
Home Run Derby named it Home Run of the Day.
In-Between Hops notes the Fielder is even with his home run pace from last year, but would need to hit 4 in his next 5 games to keep it up.
Baseball Musings notes that, before the HR, 7 of Prince's 13 hits had come with runners in scoring position.
Yahoo has a photo of Prince rounding the bases.

Also, if you're looking for quotes from the Cardinals regarding yesterday's game, Fungoes has a wealth of them.

Bugs and Cranks has a nice review of the situation at the back end of the rotation, with Bush, Villanueva and Parra holding spots and Gallardo looking for one.

Speaking of Villanueva, John Sickels has an in depth look at him.

He's had one at bat in the last three days, but Ken Rosenthal still can't get enough Gabe Kapler.

Forbes has released their annual valuations of all 30 MLB teams. The Brewers rank 24th.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Erik Bedard may have torn cartilage in his hip. I'm not sure what that means for his return.
Carlos Beltran missed last night's 14-inning marathon with a stiff neck.
Rangers OF Marlon Byrd has been placed on the DL with a sore knee.
Braves reliever Peter Moylan is out for the season with a bone spur pressing against the UCL in his elbow.
Rays reliever Al Reyes is on the DL with an impinged shoulder.
Richie Sexson will miss a game or two with nagging shoulder and leg pain.
Miguel Tejada isn't hurt, but he sure is aging fast.

Speaking of things that'll make you age fast, the Rockies and Padres played 22 innings last night. Even Fangraphs gave up after 17.

Two stories out there today showing Cub fans in a (well deserved?) negative light: First, via Redleg Nation, I found this clip of Marty Brennaman's reaction to Cub fans throwing dozens of balls on the field following a home run. Also, Fukudome's reaction to a racist t-shirt being sold by vendors outside Wrigley is a must read. I know a lot of very bright, intelligent Cubs fans that are a credit to their franchise...it's just unfortunate they seem to be in the minority.

Bucs Dugout continues their search for baseball's worst GM. Polls are open right now for Omar Minaya v. Jim Hendry and Ken Williams v. Wayne Krivsky.

Gaslamp Ball wants to hear about your favorite baseball books.

Finally, in response to a question asked in the game thread a couple of nights ago, TheJay has compiled a list of the last players to wear #42 for every franchise. Scott Karl was the last Brewer, and also the last Rockie. Interestingly enough, Mo Vaughn was the last player to wear #42 for three teams.

That's all for today. I'm back on the road in a few hours, so Jeff will be filling in again tomorrow and Sunday. If you have something to submit for inclusion in a future Mug, please post it in the comments. Drink up.

It's Dave Bush against Braden Looper.  The action starts at 7:15 CT.

The Brewers lineup, featuring Kapler against a righty and Dillon subbing for Braun, and if I do say so myself, some of you are seriously overreacting.  We all knew Kapler would start seeing time against righties as long as he kept hitting like this, and Dillon is one sub, giving Braun his first day off of the year. 

It isn't how I would do it, but compared to the "approved" lineup (Gross and Braun instead), we're losing about 3/10 of a run.  And that's assuming that Kapler and Gross both play according to their preseason projections...which at the very least, Ned probably doesn't believe.

Ok, I've stepped down from my pedestal now. 

To see what I had to say in response to 5 questions at Viva El Birdos, click here.  Scroll on down here at BCB if you want to see lboros's answers to mine.  (It's worth it.)  And if you want to drench yourself in situational stats, here's the baseball-reference game preview.

I haven't seen the official Cardinals starting lineup yet, but if they go with the same starting eight that they used against a righty on Saturday night, Project-A-tron says:

• Brewers 4.9
• Cardinals 4.4
• Brewers WinExp: 51%

Also, if TLR stays true to form, we'll have a matchup of pitchers batting eighth.  Not that it matters a whole lot for the Cards--catcher/Kennedy/pitcher/Izturis is just one mass of Triple-A goodness at the plate.  Remarkably, while Izturis and Aaron Miles have gotten 12 of the 13 starts in the 9 hole, the SLG out of the 8 position is higher than that from the 9th.

Go Brewers!