Zack Greinke is the new Manny Parra, in that he's the Brewer pitcher I spend most of my time trying to figure out. With Manny healthy and back on the roster for the 2012 season, it's only a matter of time before we start rehashing the old discussions about his pitch selection and overall effectiveness. There will be plenty of time for that in-season. So to get warmed up I'm going to get right back on the horse and try to figure out what the heck happened with Zack Greinke in 2011, and hope that leads toward some kind of conclusion about what to expect this season.

Greinke started his time with the Brewers with some mind-bending results. He was doing just about everything right in his first starts, in terms of what he can control-- he was striking out a ton of batters and walking very few batters. His strikeout to walk rate was downright historic. He just was not getting results. Part of the problem had much to do with something he does have more control over: too many home run balls. But the rest of the picture didn't add up, because there was really no historical precedent for something this extraordinary, a 11 K: 2 BB ratio and an ERA that wouldn't get under 5 for a frustratingly long time.

Some deserved blame was placed on the defense, but an anamoly like this couldn't be the fault of the defense alone, which was actually just below average and not as bad as it seemed at times. There were other theories about Greinke trying too hard to avoid walks and throwing too many hittable pitches at times when he should have given in and thrown something out of the zone. There was another idea that this was just some horribly bad luck combined with a few poorly timed pitches and that things would even out over the course of the year.

In truth a combination of these ideas was probably the right answer to the question, "Why was Zack Greinke struggling?". As an analyst might have expected, Greinke's outcomes started to even out over the course of the year. He finished with a 3.83 ERA, 2.98 FIP, and 2.56 xFIP (xFIP adjusts for "home run luck", changing actual home runs to a percentage of fly balls). The end result certainly looked much prettier, but other problems held back his debut Brewers season from being a big success. First, Greinke struggled to go deep into games; he went over 7 innings just twice all season and never reached 8. Secondly, he failed to make a dominant impression on the postseason. The Brewers were 2-1 in his starts, but he gave up 3 homers and 4 ER to the Diamondbacks in his start in the NLDS, then gave up 6 ER in 6 innings (including a home run) against the Cardinals, then gave up 5 runs (only 2 earned) and failed to strike out a batter in 5 2/3 innings in his second start of the NCLS.

The new pitch f/x player cards over at Brooks Baseball are the place I started to look. I wanted to compare some numbers from Greinke from his dominant 2009, subpar 2010, and 2011, which fell somewhere in between those two final seasons with the Royals.

Here's a couple of quick charts on things that I thought were interesting. First is boring, pitch selection. Key point here is that his pitch selection changed in 2010 when he was apparently saving his arm while playing for a team out of contention, then basically bounced right back in 2011 to a mix similar to the one he had in 2009. I combine Zack's 2 and 4 seam fastballs here, more about that in a bit.

Next is whiff rate. This is off Brooks Baseball data, they now have a really useful tool to sort player pitches by sabermetric outcomes. Whiff rate is a nice proxy for nastiness of a pitch, it's the percentage of time a batter swings at a pitch and misses. It's closely correlated to overall strikeout rate.

This one's a bit more interesting. I would expect overall swings and misses to go up with Greinke's move to the National League, and in fact he set a career high in that category, with 10.6% last season. Relatively, however, the slider and curveball actually dropped a bit, and the increase in swinging strike rate falls almost entirely on the fastball-changeup combination, judging strictly 2009 and 2011.

Now to touch on the strangest part of Zack's 2011 season, and why I have so much optimism for him in 2012. Greinke set a career high in ground ball rate last season. He drew 40% ground balls in his phenomenal '09 season, upped that number to 46% in 2010 when it looks like he experimented much more with a 2-seam sinker, and then upped it again to 47.7 in 2011 while relying much more on the 4-seamer than he had in 2010. Greinke had a strangely high 22% line drive rate, something that we likely won't see again. 13.6% of fly balls against him left the park, a very high number. It was 4.5% in 2009, and that's something that can account for the difference between one of the great pitching seasons of all time and just a solid campaign.

Zack Greinke isn't the same pitcher he was in 2009, but he hasn't remade himself either. He uses the same general mix of pitches, with about the same levels of nastiness, but he's produced some different results. If he keeps maintaining his ability to induce ground balls, the infield defense will hopefully be improved enough to take advantage. And if that fly ball luck starts to even out, we could be looking at another stellar season from Grienke. I don't think it's going to be 2009 good- only a few pitchers in MLB history have had a better year than that one. But I'd put down money on him having some jaw-dropping numbers this year. The Brewers didn't get some Greinke 2.0 who rebooted after his 9 WAR season in '09, this is the same guy, and he's capable of doing it again.

Some things to read while ending sexism.

We're three days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Maryvale, and the Brewers find themselves carrying an extra $375,000 in their pockets this morning. The team won their arbitration case with Jose Veras yesterday and will pay him $2 million in 2012 instead of the $2.375 million he requested (FanShot). This is kind of an awkward way to start the team's relationship with a new player, but Veras' agent says there are no hard feelings.

This will be an interesting spring training for a lot of Brewers for a variety of reasons, but eight players have more on the line than most. MLB Trade Rumors notes that Frankie De La Cruz, Tim Dillard, Mat Gamel, George Kottaras, Kameron Loe, Chris Narveson, Manny Parra and Jose Veras are out of options and will have to be exposed to waivers if they don't make the Opening Day roster. For the last five guys on that list it likely won't be an issue, of course.

Mat Gamel, by the way, is leaving tomorrow morning and driving from Florida to Arizona with his wife and two small children.

Adam Foster of Project Prospect is in the middle of an extended project to rank pitchers' arsenals and says Yovani Gallardo has one of the game's top five curveballs, and will likely have a top five fastball too. If that's the case, maybe his missing changeup won't be a big deal.

We've long known that Alex Gonzalez isn't expected to be much of an offensive improvement over Yuniesky Betancourt, but this number is still a little disappointing: David Golebiewski of Baseball Analytics notes that the Brewers' new shortstop posted a .140 wOBA on pitches outside the zone in 2011, the third worst mark in all of baseball. Of course, even if Gonzalez provides nothing at the plate his defensive value will make him worth keeping around.

The Brewers made a couple of minor transactions yesterday, signing infielder Jeff Bianchi and BCB Community #1 prospect Wily Peralta to 2012 contracts. Both players have less than three years of MLB service time and will likely make near the league minimum for any time spent in the majors this season.

I can't decide if this is a weird statistical quirk or a sign of a problem, but it's interesting either way: Jack Moore of Disciples of Uecker notes that Brewer pitchers fared much worse in 2011 than one would have expected against the #8 hitters in opposing lineups. He also notes that the intentional walk was very rarely used there.

In the minors: The Brewer Nation continued their "Brewers By the (Jersey) Numbers" series with a profile of Zelous Wheeler.

Around baseball:

Indians: Designated pitcher Kelvin De La Cruz for assignment.
Mariners: Catcher Chris Gimenez has refused an outright assignment to the minors and is now a free agent.
Orioles: Signed outfielder Adam Jones to a one year, $6.15 million deal to avoid arbitration.
Rays: Signed manager Joe Maddon to a three year contract extension through 2015 and signed outfielder Jeff Salazar to a minor league deal.
Royals: Exercised the club option on manager Ned Yost's contract for 2013.
White Sox: Signed outfielder Kosuke Fukudome to a one year, $1 million deal with a club option for 2013.

When the 2012 season wraps up it will be the end of an era for the Astros in more ways than one: Hall of Fame broadcaster Milo Hamilton, who has been calling games on the radio for 51 years and been with the Astros since 1985, plans to retire following the team's final National League season.

Today in former Brewers: Longtime Brewer farmhand Sam Narron has decided to retire and take a job as a minor league pitching coach for the Nationals.

My favorite sabermetric note of the day comes via Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs, who mapped out pitchers' ground ball percentage against their height and found nearly no correlation. Scouts will have to find another reason to discredit all sub-six foot pitchers in one fell swoop.

This morning's edition of Today In Brewer History celebrates early Brewer Rick Auerbach's 62nd birthday. Today is also Alex Gonzalez's 35th birthday, and Plunk Everyone notes that he's the all time HBP leader among February 15th-born major leaguers with 76.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to see if this donut is still available.

Drink up.

On this day in 1950 Frederick Steven Auerbach was born in Woodland Hills, California. The Seattle Pilots drafted him in the seventh round on the 1969 January draft and he had played just 246 games in the minors when the Brewers called him up to make his major league debut in 1971.

Auerbach probably got an extended opportunity in the majors because of his ability to play shortstop but, unfortunately, I'm coming up short on words to describe just how terrible he was offensively. Over 238 career games as a Brewer during three seasons Auerbach hit just .213/.273/.265. Somehow, despite being a complete offensive liability, he played in 153 games in 1972.

The Brewers traded Auerbach in April of 1973 and he managed to hold on to play eight more season in the majors.

Auerbach, who turns 62 today, shares a birthday with new Brewer shortstop Alex Gonzalez, who turns 35. Hopefully that's all they have in common.

(Thanks to Brewerfan.net and the B-Ref Play Index for helping me find today's birthdays.)

The Ryan Braun situation has overshadowed him a bit, but Aramis Ramirez will report to camp this spring as the Brewers' most notable offseason acquisition. 2012 will be his 15th major league season (all within the NL Central), and he's already accumulated some pretty impressive career numbers.

Ramirez is tied for 113th in major league history with 315 career home runs. Here are some notable names he could pass on the all time list this season:

• If he hits one homer, he'll pass Jeromy Burnitz for sole possession of 113th. Burnitz also finished his career with 315 home runs, including 165 as a Brewer.
• He needs three long balls to pass Hall of Famer George Brett (111th all time), who hit 317.
• Five would push him past Cecil Fielder (109th), who hit 319.
• Jumping ahead, 22 home runs would move him ahead of longtime Milwaukee Brave Joe Adcock (94th), who finished with 336.
• Looking even further ahead, 28 would move him in front of Hall of Famer Ron Santo (87th), who finished with 342.

Ramirez is also tied for 128th all time with 1122 RBI. If he drives in 100 runs this year he'll pass Hall of Famers Joe Morgan (125th, 1133), Chuck Klein (105th, 1201) and future Hall of Famer Craig Biggio (113th, 1175), among others.

I'm a Nationals fan stopping by to ask a few questions about Brewer's fans opinions. I have been looking for a new CF with good contact skills to fit into the Nationals strike-out prone line-up. The Brewers a very, very good outfield. One with a decent amount of depth as well, Ryan Braun, Nyjer Morgan, and Corey Hart staring, with Norichika Aoki, Carlos Gomez, Caleb Gindl, and Logan Schafer as potential back-ups. Schafer seems like he would be very useful to the Nationals. Obviously, you don't need to carry 7 OFs on the 25-man roster, and that means you would likely put Gindl and Schafer back in the minors. I'm sure you all have discussed at great length the probable outcomes if Braun is suspended or punished for his alleged violation. I'm guessing Aoki starts in LF, and maybe you have Gindl and Gomez on the bench?

At any rate, it seems to me that the Brewers have a good shot a contending in the NL Central, even with the loss of Fielder. The Astros are going to be super terrible, the Pirates are still waiting on a decent rotation, the Cubs are rebuilding. The Reds and Cardinals will be some decent competition, but the Reds need to find 10 wins and the Cardinals will need to replace Pujols. At any rate, I was curious what the Brewers fans felt could be a useful uprgarde, and what you think might be a fair trade for Schafer.

From my perspective, Schafer has some valuable tools, solid defense and good average. However, he doesn't have a great deal of power, and is only a year removed from serious injury. Additionally, while you certainly don't need to trade him, you have something of a surplus of outfielders, and a strong incentive to be competitive this year with Marcum and Grienke becoming free agents after 2012.

As far as what the Nationals could offer the Brewers for Schafer, I'm not really sure. We have surplus of pitching. Your rotation is pretty good, though I don't know about your depth/spot starters in case of injury. Narvesson also seems pretty marginal, but he's young so he may add some control. Axford/K-Rod seem to be a good late-innings team, but it seems like rest of the pen is kind of iffy. However, I am far from an expert on your team, so I could be totally off, hence why I am here. I will say that the Nationals do have a fair number of solid relievers, but I doubt that they would part with Clippard or Storen. What are your thoughts?

Some things to read while Vince McMahon ruins your coffee.

We're four days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Maryvale, and by the end of the day we should have a near-certain picture of the 2012 payroll. Jose Veras, the team's last unsigned arbitration-eligible player, and the Brewers had their hearing yesterday, and the results are expected today (FanShot). Veras requested $2.375 million from the team, who countered with a $2 million offer. That difference doesn't seem like much but, as Mykenk points out, there is another gap to consider.

Yesterday we reported that John Axford was held up on the way into the US due to some border issues regarding his son. Today I'm happy to report those issues have been resolved and the Axfords are likely in Phoenix by now.

It's safe to assume that Axford and nearly every other Brewer regular and veteran won't play in this game: The team announced yesterday that they'll play a game in Tucson against the Mariners on March 16. It's a split squad game (the Brewers also visit the Royals on that day), but technically listed as a Brewer home game. Players who can get away with it usually avoid the long bus ride from Phoenix like the plague.

2012 will be Jonathan Lucroy's second full major league season, and he's already become steady enough that we kind of take him for granted. J.P. Breen of Disciples of Uecker has a look at Lucroy's slide to end the 2011 season and his expectations for 2012.

In the minors:

• David Laurila of FanGraphs has a Q&A with Brewer director of amateur scouting Bruce Seid.
• Brewer Nation continued their "Brewers By the (Jersey) Numbers" series with a profile of Cody Scarpetta.
• Craig Counsell will be the special guest at Wisconsin's Leadoff Experience in April.
• The Timber Rattlers are also continuing to promote their Opening Day bobbleheads. This week's video is titled "The Good, The Bad, & The Bobbly."

Many of you will probably recall that last spring the JS was shorthanded with Todd Rosiak still covering Marquette, so the paper turned to several Arizona State journalism students to help fill the gap. The program has apparently expanded this spring, and the Brewers are now one of four teams that will have students.

Around baseball:

Athletics: Signed outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to a four year, $36 million deal.
Blue Jays: Signed reliever Casey Janssen to a two year, $5.9 million deal with a club option for 2014, avoiding arbitration.
Red Sox: Signed DH David Ortiz to a one year, $14.75 million deal to avoid arbitration.

Even with the Cespedes signing, Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports lists the A's as one of five teams that got worse this winter and won't make the playoffs in 2012.

While the Brewers get ready to report to Maryvale, their NL Central rivals are also days away from opening their 2012 seasons. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com has a list of the site's spring previews from around the division.

In former Brewers: Tim Brown of Yahoo has a great, extended story on baseball in the Dominican Republic that features Dave Valle and a moment during his time in winter ball that appears to have changed the direction of his life.

This morning's edition of Today In Brewer History celebrates Takashi Saito's 42nd birthday. Kelly Stinnett also turns 42 today, and Plunk Everyone notes that he's second among all February 14-born batters with 42 career HBP.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to submit a complaint.

Drink up.

On this day in 1970 Takashi Saito was born in Miyagi, Japan. He had already had a long career in Japan and was just a week shy of his 36th birthday when the Dodgers signed him as a free agent before the 2006 season.

Saito has now pitched six years in the majors as a member of four teams (three years as a Dodger and one each with the Red Sox, Braves and Brewers). He's recorded 84 saves, appeared in an All Star Game and struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings for his career during years where most pitchers' playing days are already over.

Durability has never been a strong asset for Saito, but he has posted a 2.18 ERA over 326 innings in the major leagues. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 300 innings since the end of World War II, only one has done better:

In October Saito won a postseason game, becoming the oldest Brewer ever to do so.

Interestingly enough, Saito was born on the same day as 1996-97 Brewer Kelly Stinnett. Stinnett had a 14 year major league career and has already been retired for four years.

Both Saito and Stinnett turn 42 today. With help from the B-Ref Play Index, we'd also like to wish a happy birthday to:

• Ken Henderson, the Brewers' first round pick in 1991 (#5 overall, didn't sign). He turns 39.
• 1983-86 Brewer Jaime Cocanower, who turns 55.