Brew Crew Ball: FanPosts

Nice article about Halama, plus some speculation

2009-11-25T23:20:42Z

Adam McC has a neat article about John Halama. I'm not overly optimistic, but it's hard not to pull for him.

Also, if we're already plotting the removal of Corey Hart from RF, how about a Gerut/Shelley Duncan platoon? For his career, Jody Gerut has an .803 OPS against RHP, whereas Duncan "is perfectly capable of knocking around left-handed pitching as a productive platoon first baseman, corner outfielder, or designated hitter."

For more about Duncan, you can click here. He also seems like a low-risk, high-upside kind of player, perhaps 2010's Casey McGehee.

Brewers' Top 30 Prospects

2009-11-23T15:56:48Z

Want to see Baseball America's (and Tom H.'s) list of the Brewers' top 30 prospects? Sure you do.

1. SS Alcides Escobar
2. 2B Brett Lawrie
3. 3B Mat Gamel
4. RHP Eric Arnett
5. C Jonathan Lucroy
6. OF Kentrail Davis
7. LHP Zach Braddock
8. OF Lorenzo Cain
9. RHP Jake Odorizzi
10. RHP Kyle Heckathorn
11. RHP Mark Rogers
12. OF Logan Schafer
13. RHP Cody Scarpetta
14. RHP Wily Peralta
15. C Angel Salome
16. RHP Amaury Rivas
17. OF Caleb Gindl
18. OF D’Vontrey Richardson
19. 2B Eric Farris
20. 3B Taylor Green
21. RHP Jeremy Jeffress
22. LHP Del Howell
23. RHP John Axford
24. RHP Josh Butler
25. RHP Alex Periard
26. RHP Evan Anundsen
27. RHP Brooks Hall
28. OF Max Walla
29. RHP Nick Bucci
30. RHP Maverick Lasker

The biggest things that jump out at me are the absence of Cutter Dykstra, the drops of Taylor Green and Jeremy Jeffress, and the ranking of Lawrie over Mat Gamel.

Overall, the impression I get of the Brewers' farm system is that it's pretty strong, but without a Braun or Gallardo that will shoot through the minors quickly. There's also a decent chance that three of the top five picks will be playing in the majors when the 2010 season gets underway.

Counsell Watch: Omar Vizquel, plus a note about the Cubs

2009-11-23T15:13:00Z

First, re: Omar Vizquel. NBCsports is reporting that the White Sox have offered Vizquel a $1 million contract. It's worth pointing out that the 42-year-old hasn't been good since 2006, but he's supposed to be a nice guy, so good for him.

I mention it because Bustre reported last week that up to a dozen teams were looking at Craig Counsell, and although I can't believe there was a lot of interest in Vizquel, he and Counsell are two of only a handful of FAs who can play third, short, and second. Personally, I think Counsell will sign before the winter meetings, and probably not with the Brewers.

If you were wondering, yes, Adam Heether has played short in Nashville and Huntsville last season, though only 22 games, and with a .917 fielding percentage. It's a work in progress.

As for the Cubs: as interesting as it is to watch DM purge salary, it's just as interesting to examine the Cubs' payroll right now. They currently have 8 players who are making at least $10 million in 2010, and 7 of them are making $13 million or more. Cots lists the known 2010 salaries for 9 of the Cubs; combined, those salaries (plus the $500,000 they're paying Luis Vizcaino to not play for them) put their payroll at $120 million, a good $30-40 million more than what the Brewers will likely pay for their whole roster. For that matter, the Cubs are already on the hook for $96 million for the 2011 season, before considering 9 players like Giovanny Soto hitting arbitration. No one likes hearing people complain about the disparities among different markets, but it's clear the Cubs are in a different neighborhood altogether from the Brewers.

Rumorville: John Smoltz, Carl Pavano

2009-11-22T19:47:33Z

Via MLBTR, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has a lot to say about some of baseball's more popular free agents:

3. Carl Pavano, RHP, free agent - According to agent Tom O’Connell, the action on Pavano right now is "very solid.’’ While Pavano may have to wait until John Lackey gets situated, teams in need of a No. 3 type starter may not wait. The Twins and Brewers are very interested.

4. John Smoltz, RHP, free agent - He apparently is very excited about what he’ll be able to do with a full offseason and spring training. Now the question is, on whose staff does he end up? The Cardinals still want him, but don’t rule out the pitching-hungry Brewers.

Carl Pavano has not been good since 2004, and only once since then has he topped 126 innings. Smoltz only pitched 78 innings last season and 28 the season before. 40 of those innings in Boston were pretty forgettable, but he pitched well enough in St. Louis to make him a worthwhile case study for our new pitching coach.

Yahoo's FA Tracker

2009-11-22T17:49:56Z

Yahoo has a handy Free Agency tracker of the top 131 free agents, including some Brewers you might have heard of. I know we're all about pitching, but this one caught my eye too:

A Gold Glove-caliber third baseman with positional versatility, on-base acuity and true leadoff skills.

Gold glove third baseman? Leadoff skills? On-base acuity? Why, we need all of those. (Especially if we can somehow land groundball pitchers, instead of flyball pitchers who, shockingly, don't seem to do well at Miller Park. Having Gold-glove ability on the left side of the infield and in center could make for an interesting 2010.)

There's also one other possibility: if we're looking for an ace kind of pitcher and can get one through free agency, we'd probably have to consider something I truly truly don't want to do: trade Mat Gamel. That would be easier to do if we had third base locked up for a while, and had McGehee taking Counsell's place as supersub. Imagine, Milwaukee being known as a defensive paradise.

Rumorville: John Halama?

2009-11-20T22:23:47Z

Per Adam McC:

The Brewers are seeking starting pitching depth this winter and Halama, 37, wants to reunite with pitching coach Rick Peterson and manager Ken Macha. The trio was together in Oakland in 2003, Macha's first year as A's manager and Peterson's final year as that team's pitching coach.

Sure, why not.

Rumorville: Todd Wellemeyer?

2009-11-20T22:07:54Z

Per John Heyman:

Brewers. They've looked into Lackey, Washburn, Doug Davis, Harden and Wolf plus possible No. 5-type guys Mark Mulder and Todd Wellemeyer. Mulder could reconnect with pitching coach Rick Peterson.

Wellemeyer, who posted two sub-4 ERAs before falling apart last season, would be yet another flailing St. Louis pitcher joining the club. In other sports, it's hard to maintain success because other teams keep looting your top free agents, not the worst guys you have. I think the Brewers need a LOLcat.

Rumorville: Derek Lowe/Corey Hart

2009-11-20T03:30:20Z

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Braves are shopping Derek Lowe to any team who wants to give a 37-year-old $45 million over the next 3 years. One of the few teams mentioned is our beloved Brewers. Rosenthal insists the two teams were discussing a Lowe/Hart swap, though Mark Bowman, Adam McC's counterpart for the Braves, disagrees, saying the Braves don't care much for Hart's inability to take a walk, and the Brewers don't care much for Lowe's age and disappointing 2009.

I can't imagine trading for Lowe while still keeping Suppan. That's just crazy talk. However, I'd be happy to take on Lowe's contract if it means ridding ourselves of the Soup, even if it means two more seasons of paying an old guy a lot of money. Then again, I think Lowe just had an off-year last season: his four previous seasons produced ERAs under 4, including a sparkling 3.24/1.13 in 2008. And even though this quote from Rosenthal is like channeling a certain former Brewers manager, "Take away three poor starts [last season], and Lowe's ERA would have been 3.87."

It's interesting that Hart is in trade talks, in that we don't have an obvious replacement for him. I recall Jeff offering the idea of keeping Cameron and moving him to right field, plus it would free a spot for Gamel, were he to learn to play right field. Anyway, it's one thing to shop JJ, when you have his replacement knocking on the door. It's another to offer someone who doesn't have an obvious replacement. It reminds of when we were shopping TG Jr before acquiring Cameron.

Further bulletins as events warrant. Hat tip to MLBTR.

Question regarding revenue sharing

2009-11-17T14:07:21Z

I typically don't like ESPN's Mike and Mike in the morning, but today they were discussing revenue sharing with Jayson Stark and claimed that small market teams are starting out with anywhere from $80 to $100 million in revenue sharing--so using the small market team defense is no excuse for not paying players.

I have a hard time believing this is true. Mark A certainly seems aggressive enough that I'd doubt he'd max out payroll at $90 million if he were already starting with $80 mil before a single ticket is sold.

There must be some nuance here that I'm missing. Can anybody help?

All in on Low Risk/High Reward Guys

2009-11-16T05:34:48Z

Heres a thought. what if the Brewers maximize their limited dollars for starting pitching by signing as many reclamation projects as possible with hopes that at least 3 of them pan out. there are a lot our there this year:

Mulder

Sheets

Duscherer

Bedard

Noah Lowry

Kelvim Escobar

(maybe Rich Harden)

Not to mention that Capuano will still be trying to get back to the bigs.

If we can sign all those guys to incentive laden deals, guaranteeing between $1 and $5 each depending on their reputation and allowing them to earn up to $9 million. I think the brewers might be able to get all six of these guys, what do you think.

a couple other names I like but that aren't in this category are Pavano, Padilla and Penny, but my ideal situation would be for us to trade for Vasquez.

Question: Rule 5 Draft Protection

2009-11-16T03:10:58Z

Major eague teams must file their "Reserve lists" on Friday, November 20. In other words, on that day each team's 40-man roster is set in preparation for the Rule 5 draft, which takes place on December 10.

The Brewers' 40-man roster has 33 spots occupied once all the team's free agents are removed. My question is this: which prospects need to be added to protect them from the Rule 5 draft? I'm sure this has been discussed somewhere in the Brewers blogosphere, but I'm not sure where. The only two names I can think of are Lorenzo Cain and Chris Cody.

As a refresher, these are the Rule 5 eligibility criteria, as found on Wikipedia.

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's forty man roster and:

- were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; or

- were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.

Speculationville: Edwin Jackson/Curtis Granderson

2009-11-14T00:57:07Z

The Brewers and Tigers didn't come together on a deal for J.J. Hardy, mainly because Doug Melvin didn't see them as a match, but is it possible they could still come together for a deal? Try this one on for size:

The Brewers desperately need starting pitching. At the same time, they're saving some money but losing some reliability by replacing Mike Cameron in center field with Carlos Gomez. Gomez is still young, strong defensively and has a lot of potential, but he's not really the type of player a contending team should be relying upon to contribute offensively.

Meanwhile, the Tigers are in the midst of significant financial issues. They spent over $115 million in 2009 despite declining attendance and an economic situation in Detroit that's bleak at best. They're likely to be looking to cut payroll, and they have a couple of players that could be of interest to the Brewers.

The proposal:

Brewers get:

RHP Edwin Jackson. The Tigers are reportedly looking to move Jackson, who made $2.25 million in 2009 and is due for a significant raise in arbitration. He earned that raise this season, posting a 3.62 ERA in 214 innings of work, striking out 161 and appearing in his first All Star Game. Jackson will likely get $4.5-5 million in arbitration, still less than the Brewers would likely spend to acquire a lesser talent via free agency, and would still be under Brewer control for 2011.

CF Curtis Granderson. While his offensive production has backslid a bit over the last three seasons, Granderson is still one of the game's better center fielders, with a career .272/.344/.484 line. He's still just 28 years old, so he's not in the decline of his career yet, and should be a productive player for the length of his contract. Granderson probably wouldn't be available if not for his contract: he's due $23.75 million over the next three seasons, plus an option for 2013. With that said, the deal isn't as bad as you might think: Granderson is only due $5.5 million for 2010. He'll get raises each of the next two seasons, but the Brewers will also have money to spare, once Suppan, Hall and Riske's contracts are off the books.

Tigers get:

3B Casey McGehee. The Tigers are also reportedly interested in unloading the contract of Brandon Inge, who is due $6.6 million in 2010. If they do decide to move Inge, they'll need a long-term solution for the position, and McGehee could be it. With one year of service time, McGehee would be under the Tigers' control for the next five seasons, and could be paid at or around the league minimum for 2010 and 2011.

(I considered putting Mat Gamel in this trade instead of McGehee, but I think six years of Gamel is significantly too much to trade for two years of Jackson. Feel free to tell me I'm wrong in the comments.)

CF Carlos Gomez. We've blasted Gomez a lot around here over the last few days, so it's probably not surprising that I'm advocating for unloading him. With that said, all the positive things that have been said about Gomez still apply: he's young, could improve, still under team control for several seasons and very good defensively. He's not as good as Granderson and perhaps never will be, but he's much less expensive: He'll qualify for arbitration this winter for the first time, but will still likely make less than $1.5 million.

Salary relief. If the Tigers also manage to unload Brandon Inge in another deal, they'll have cut $37.35 million in financial commitments, including $17.1 for 2010, and taken on less than $2 million.

What do you think?

Poll

KLSnow, by proposing this trade, you are:

Rumorville: Kelly Shoppach

2009-11-13T07:39:09Z

I'm not sure if there are a dozen people who read the nbcsports.com blog for hot stove news, but fortunately, Rambling Al is one of them. The needle in the nbcsports.com haystack:

Shoppach is due $2.5 million or so in arbitration, and the Indians could turn to Marson behind the plate. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Shoppach serving as Milwaukee's catcher on Opening Day.

I guess I see the appeal: he's young-ish (29) and has a lifetime OPS of .776. There aren't many people who'd represent a definite upgrade over Lucroy's potential, but he'd be one of them. That said, I have no idea how we'd pry him away from the Indians. It's hard to imagine DM making another trade that doesn't bring some pitching back. (Maybe we can trade Brent Brewer.)

Rumorville: John Lackey

2009-11-12T21:35:46Z

I have to admit, it's hard to get excited about John Lackey rumors. Given that (a) he's the top starting pitcher on the market, (b) the big name teams like the Yankees are expected to (but haven't yet) bid on his services, and (c) the salary amounts being floated around ($80-100 million/5 years) seem out of place for a guy with good-but-not-great numbers, it's easy to see Lackey as an unwise investment, even if the Brewers freed up enough cash to land him.

That said, the Brewers, in addition to the Mariners and Rangers, are reportedly asking about Lackey. Jon Heyman reports that teams like the Rangers and Dodgers might not have the money to pull it off. The Brewers might not have the money either, especially if their goal is acquiring TWO good starting pitchers, but clearing off nearly $25 million in the departures of Cameron, Hardy, Weathers, and Kendall is a start.

Braden Looper Watch (update 1)

2009-11-12T17:00:23Z

According to Adam McCalvey, the Brewers have until Saturday to decide what to do with Braden Looper's $6.5 million option. ~~Interestingly, A McC says that even if the Brewers decline to exercise their half, The Loop could exercise his half anyway. I didn't think it worked that way, but I guess it does.~~

Anyway, stay tuned for updates.

UPDATE 1: There was some confusion about the goofy "mutual option." Adam McC has since clarified:

If the Brewers decline the option, Looper would exercise his half and get a $1 million buyout....Sorry about screwing that up.

So there you go. Adam also said he will come to your house sometime this offseason and make you a fresh stack of banana pancakes, complete with a pat of butter on top in the shape of the mlb.com logo, to atone for his error. Be sure to "tweet" him the dates you are available. (I'm joking, of course. The butter is in the shape of Ned Yost's head.) Anyway, thanks, Adam, for setting the record straight.

Jonathan Lucroy: You know, maybe...

2009-11-11T14:37:11Z

I clicked on this link because its corresponding tweet suggested that Jason Kendall might not be a 2010 Brewer after all. Unfortunately, there's no new information that suggests he won't be back, though it sounds like DM is committed to not paying $5 million for a catcher this season. However, the link also talks a little about Jonathan Lucroy's game offensively, and now I'm wondering if a good spring training for Lucroy might be enough to give him the job.

First, I have to admit, I don't know much about either of the Brewers' top two catchers in the system: my impression was that Angel Salome had a promising bat but was not there defensively, whereas Lucroy's defense was about major-league ready but his hitting was not. I still don't know much about Salome, other than Doug talked to him last week and Angel is still something of a work-in-progress.

We know a little more about Lucroy, though. The biggest revelation is that he is an on-base machine: in AA, he hit a modest .267, but he has an OBP of .380. He had walked more times (78) than he had struck out (66). Adam M. says he profiles to be in the mold of Terry Steinbach (Steinbach's stats here), who over his career was...pretty OK, offensively, as a catcher.

Of course, his biggest attribute is that he would be cheap cheap cheap. If he is a plus defender at catcher (and DM seems to think that's the case), even a moderate offensive showing might be enough for him to win the starting job, or at least to split time on the major league club. This is especially true given the FA choices available at catcher: we could bring in a FA catcher for $2-3 million, but not get much of an upgrade, offensively or defensively, over what Lucroy could provide. At the very least, Lucroy could mean we only need to find a part-time FA catcher, playing for $1 million or less.

Finally, the caveat: a lot of this recent Lucroy support is stemming from his play in the Arizona Fall League right now, where he's OPSing .949 over a small sample of 41 ABs (with, notably, 1 walk compared to 6 strikeouts). Lucroy might not even be in the conversation if he were OPSing .798, as he did in AA. Moreover, although Lucroy could give us a solid defense up the middle with Escobar and CarGo, it's possible that none of the three would OPS .700 in the majors next season, which, when you include the pitcher, makes for a lot of outs in the lineup. Just the same, I think (perhaps inaccurately) that OBP translates pretty well from the minors to the majors: if Lucroy can hit .235 but get a lot of walks, he might actually be a better option than your typical FA catcher, especially if you're throwing every last dollar you can get your hands on at pitching.

Brewers Minor League Leaders thru the 00's - Walks

2009-11-10T14:36:09Z

2000 - 2009 - Walk Leaders

Here's a list of the top five walk (bottom five?) seasons for Brewer minor leaguer pitchers over the last 10 years:

134 - Nick Neugebauer, 2000 (Mudville 87/ Huntsville 47)
93 - Carlos Chantres, 2001 (Indianapolis)
84 - Jerry Oakes, 2002 (Beloit)
82 - Evan Fredrickson, 2009 (Wisconsin)
80 - Roberto Maysonet, 2002 (High Desert...in 81 IP)

A little more about the leader, Nick Neugebauer

(Photo from onmilwaukee.com)

Drafted:                                  Drafted in 2nd Round by Brewers in 1998 from Arlington HS (CA)
How Acquired:                      Drafted by Brewers. One of only two Brewer draft picks in 1998 to make it to the majors.
Years with Brewers:            5
Best Season:                        In the minors 2001 - went 7-7 with a 3.10 ERA and a 175/61 strikeout to walk ratio and a 1.263 WHIP in 130 IP.
Last Professional Season: Pitches one game for High Desert in 2004
Major League Stats:             2-8 with a 4.99 ERA in 14 career starts. Also had 58 SO and 50 BB in 61 IP.
Other Notes of Interset:

Brandon Inge was selected immediately after Nick in the draft.

As noted above, only two of the Brewers draft picks in 1998 made it to the majors. Nick and 6th round draft pick Bill Hall. The first and third round picks that year (J.M. Gold and Derry Hammond) never made it out of single A.

When he made is major league debut in 2001, he became the youngerst starging pitcher in the NL that season and was only 6 days older than the youngest in the AL (CC Sabathia)

While he didn't show it in the majors during his short time, Nick was a decent hitter putting with a batting average of 0.304 and a slugging percentage of 0.413 in 46 AB including a home run and 8 RBI's.

Neugebauer made 14 starts with the Brewers and had two game scores over 60. His first major league start (when he got one of his two career wins) and a start against the Marlins in 2002.

Nick had rotator cuff surgery in 2001, then again in 2003. When it was decided that he would miss the 2003 season it was hailed as the first setback in Ned Yost's managing career.

After posting walk rates of 8.9 (per 9 IP) in 1999 and 9.4 in 2000, Nick turned things around in 2001 and lowered his rate to 4.2.

He has three of the highest strikeout rates in the minors his first three seasons (13.9 in 1999, 12.2 in 2000, and 12.1 in 2001). In 1999 and 2000 he allowed less than 6 hits per 9 IP.

Was a AA All-Star in 2001. Also ranked as the Brewers #1 prospect in 2000, #2 prospect in 2001, and #1 prospect in 2002. Ranked as the #83 overall prospect in baseball in 2001 and #17 in 2002. Participated in the futures game in 2001.

2009 Leaders

82 - Fredrickson (Wisconsin)
77 - Lindsay Gulin (Nashville)
58 - Trey Watten (Wisconsin)

Vazquez/Bradley

2009-11-09T04:39:06Z

I know people hate reading trade proposals, and scenarios proposed by fans rarely make sense, but I'm interested in what people think, so here it goes:

Javier Vazquez had a phenomenal season with the Braves this year, but there have been reports that the Braves might make him available now that they have resigned Tim Hudson, and they are in need of an OF that bats from the right side. I imagine that 2 seasons of Corey Hart is not enough of a return for Atlanta, but possibly with the inclusion of Casey McGehee a deal could be reached.

Hart + McGehee (?) = Vazquez

To be followed by:

Suppan = Milton Bradley

The Cubs are looking to ditch Bradley and the Brewers will have a new opening in the outfield. The Cubs will save money overall ($21M over 2 years vs $14.5M including $2M buyout) and they might need a starter considering Ted Lilly's health questions and the rumor that they aren't planning to resign Rich Harden.

Bradley had an off year in 2009, but still managed to produce 1.0 WAR, coming after seasons of 4.5, 2.4 and 2.7 WAR in 2008-2006. He is also a switch hitter which will give the Brewers another Left handed batter against RHP.

The Brewers take on Vazquez's $11.5M next season but actually save $5.5M (counting the buyout for Suppan) by dealing Suppan for Bradley, for a total bump in payroll of only $6M, and this doesn't take into account Corey Hart's $3.25M salary from last year which would go up to around $4 or $5M. Therefore, the trades are almost salary neutral next season, which leaves plenty of money to add the pitching Doug Melvin has been talking about. Possibly even enough for the only name we've heard him mention, "Lackey".

This obviously wouldn't be the final two moves for the Brewers, as the team would still need a #3 and #4 starter to fit in between Vazquez/Gallardo and Bush. And I am hoping Melvin will pursue the likes of Eric Bedard, Justin Duscherer and other higher risk/higher reward types that will pitch effectively when healthy and replaced on the staff by someone like Parra or Butler when/if they are shelved for a period of time.

Have at it...pick it apart...

Just for Fun: Comparing Gomez and Gutierrez

2009-11-08T05:54:54Z

TheJay recently posted a list of players with similarly low OBP to Gomez and how their careers panned out. I was also taking a look at how Gomez's numbers stacked up to another current player who had a comparable career so far both statistically and in terms of their scouting reports as prospects; the Mariners' Franklin Gutierrez (his .307 OBP in the first three seasons of his MLB career missed TheJay's cutoff, as did his 23-25 age). Here's what I saw (please excuse the lack of formatting):

Gomez - Rookie (2004, age 18) - 239 PA - .281 AVG - .324 OBP - .407 SLG - .184 BB/K
Gutierrez - Rookie (2001, age 18) - 258 PA - .269 AVG - .324 OBP - .389 SLG - .410 BB/K

Gomez - A (2005, age 19) - 539 PA - .275 AVG - .331 OBP - .376 SLG - .364 BB/K
Gutierrez - A (2002, age 19) - 419 PA - .283 AVG - .345 OBP - .456 SLG - .348 BB/K

Gomez - AA (2006, age 20) - 486 PA - .281 AVG - .350 OBP - .423 SLG - .280 BB/K
Gutierrez - AA (04-05, 21-22) - 724 PA - .278 AVG - .343 OBP - .440 SLG - .344 BB/K

Gomez - AAA (2007, age 21) - 153 PA - .287 AVG - .366 OBP - .412 SLG - .650 BB/K
Gutierrez - AAA (06-07, 23-24) - 596 PA - .295 AVG - .376 OBP - .448 SLG - .548 BB/K

Gomez - MLB1 (2007, age 21) - 139 PA - .232 AVG - .288 OBP - .304 SLG - .300 BB/K
Gutierrez - MLB1 (2006, age 23) - 141 PA - .272 AVG - .288 OBP - .360 SLG - .110 BB/K

Gomez - MLB2 (2008, age 22) - 614 PA - .258 AVG - .296 OBP - .360 SLG - .180 BB/K
Gutierrez - MLB2 (2007, age 24) - 301 PA - .266 AVG - .318 OBP - .472 SLG - .270 BB/K

Gomez - MLB3 (2009, age 23) - 349 PA - .229 AVG - .287 OBP - .337 SLG - .310 BB/K
Gutierrez - MLB3 (2008, age 25) - 440 PA - .248 AVG - .307 OBP - .383 SLG - .310 BB/K

They're quite similar players, really. Gutierrez has an obvious edge in power, but by all accounts Gomez actually has a stronger build and more "raw power" (why he hasn't shown any of it is another question). Gomez is also different from Gutierrez in that he's considerably faster and more highly-touted on the bases. What I find most interesting:

1) Their OBP are extremely similar at every level. Gutierrez only pulls more than ten or so points away when comparing their second MLB years - when he was the age Gomez will be going into next season. I wasn't sure if it made more sense to compare their lines by age or by level, but in either case the similarities are apparent and show an improvement from Gutierrez in his age 24 season.

2) Their combined BB/K ratios over their first three years in the MLB are relatively similiar. I didn't list them, but their K% are also quite similar with Gomez actually having an edge over Gutierrez.

3) The clear advantage Gutierrez has is in his power (as rather crudely measured here by SLG). But if you go by age instead of year (which makes sense, since I think there's a pretty strong consensus that power develops as players get into their mid-later twenties) the large gap by level disappears. Gutierrez put up a .360 SLG in the MLB at age 23, Gomez put up a .360 SLG at age 22 and dropped off a bit at age 23 with a .337 (when his whole offensive game suffered for not getting a chance to start every day). At age 24 (Gomez's 2010) Gutierrez slugged .472 - though it's obviously unreasonable to expect that big of a jump from Gomez.

Why is this interesting? Maybe it's not, I just though I would compare Gomez to a fellow centerfielder with a similar play-type and scouting report. Gutierrez is arguably a much better defender than even Gomez, and clearly has shown more power (18 HR last season). But Gomez has room to grow defensively and has a huge edge in Gutierrez in SB-potential.

It's also interesting to note, just for fun, the season Gutierrez had in 2009: aided by an admittedly freak defensive season (29.1 UZR!) something we certainly shouldn't expect from Gomez (nor should it really be expected again from Gutierrez) - Gutierrez was by far the most valuable centerfielder in the major leagues, worth 5.9 WAR and $26.4 million. Even if you drop his UZR to a more realistic 20 (what he put up in 2008, and maybe a very optimistic ceiling for Gomez's ability) he would have still been somewhere around tied with Matt Kemp for the most valuable CF in the game.

Am I saying we should expect such phenomenal numbers as Gutierrez posted in 2009 anytime soon from Gomez? Not at all; he clearly still needs a lot of work on his plate discipline, on his ability to translate his supposed raw power into in-game results, and also on his baserunning to compensate for his lack of power.

What I am saying, however, is that the legions of commentators (not necessarily on this site, but extending even to quite a few "professional analysts") who are writing Gomez off as a career defensive replacement, a poor player, or a failed prospect - and of the Hardy/Gomez trade as a laughable Twins coup in terms of value - can easily be proven wrong in the next few years.

I get the criticism of the trade I'm seeing here on BCB, and I'm not really sure it was a smart trade by Melvin myself, but Gomez is here now and I for one am quite excited to have such a promising young player on the team; even if the lack of a pitching return from Hardy is initially underwhelming.

Low OBP + Young Player = What Kind of Career?

2009-11-08T04:23:36Z

With all the talk about the newest Brewer's poor hitting, I thought it would be interesting to look at some players who once found themselves in a similar position. Specifically, players in the last twenty years who had 1000+ plate appearances through their age-23 seasons and a very low on base percentage. Below is the list of the bottom fifteen such players by OBP (fifteen was a convenient break-off point between guys at .305 and .310). Below that is a table showing how each of those players' careers turned out after age 23. I think there are some pretty interesting names involved.

Cnt	Player	Pos	Teams	From	To	Ages	PA	AB	H	HR	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Cesar Izturis	SS	TOR/LAD	2001	2003	21-23	1201	1131	278	4	41	124	25	13	.246	.270	.319	.590
2	Alex Gonzalez	SS	FLA	1998	2000	21-23	1096	1031	245	24	37	220	10	6	.238	.273	.376	.649
3	Sammy Sosa	RF	TEX/CHW/CHC	1989	1992	20-23	1411	1293	303	37	77	358	67	34	.234	.282	.380	.662
4	Yadier Molina	C	STL	2004	2006	21-23	1033	937	223	16	62	91	3	6	.238	.291	.342	.632
5	Omar Infante	IF	DET	2002	2005	20-23	1309	1202	296	26	77	232	27	11	.246	.291	.384	.676
6	Carlos Gomez	CF	NYM/MIN	2007	2009	21-23	1102	1017	250	12	55	241	59	21	.246	.292	.346	.638
7	Corey Patterson	CF	CHC	2000	2003	20-23	1167	1094	284	33	43	266	39	9	.260	.293	.419	.712
8	Jose Lopez	2B	SEA	2004	2007	20-23	1637	1524	397	28	60	200	11	8	.260	.295	.379	.674
9	Juan Uribe	SS	COL	2001	2003	21-23	1244	1155	298	24	59	235	19	4	.258	.298	.408	.706
10	Andujar Cedeno	SS	HOU	1990	1993	20-23	1074	984	242	22	71	247	15	10	.246	.299	.380	.679
11	Cristian Guzman	SS	MIN	1999	2001	21-23	1673	1544	400	19	89	269	62	25	.259	.302	.386	.688
12	Jose Guillen	RF	PIT/TBD	1997	1999	21-23	1449	1359	359	31	58	245	5	7	.264	.303	.397	.700
13	Peter Bergeron	CF	MON	1999	2001	21-23	1063	938	217	8	95	192	21	20	.231	.305	.321	.626
14	Mike Caruso	SS	CHW	1998	1999	21-22	1119	1052	292	7	34	74	34	20	.278	.305	.343	.649
15	Alex Gonzalez	SS	TOR	1994	1996	21-23	1071	947	221	24	93	258	23	10	.233	.305	.385	.690

Once again, the table below is how each player's career turned out after age 23:

Cnt	Player	Pos	Teams	From	To	Ages	PA	AB	H	HR	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Cesar Izturis	SS	5 Tms	2004	2009	24-29	2617	2421	643	10	146	218	73	34	.266	.311	.336	.647
2	Alex Gonzalez	SS	FLA/CIN/BOS	2001	2009	24-32	3680	3362	842	90	199	659	16	13	.250	.300	.401	.701
3	Sammy Sosa	RF	CHC/BAL/TEX	1993	2007	24-38	8485	7520	2105	572	852	1948	167	73	.280	.354	.560	.914
4	Yadier Molina	C	STL	2007	2009	24-26	1425	1278	373	19	116	111	10	6	.292	.353	.382	.735
5	Omar Infante	IF	DET/ATL	2006	2009	24-27	1000	910	262	11	64	146	9	4	.288	.335	.399	.734
6	Carlos Gomez	CF	MIL	2010	?	24-?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
7	Corey Patterson	CF	5 Tms	2004	2009	24-29	2591	2401	595	71	126	515	145	42	.248	.289	.397	.686
8	Jose Lopez	2B	SEA	2008	2009	24-25	1340	1257	358	42	51	136	9	6	.285	.313	.453	.765
9	Juan Uribe	SS	CHW/SFG	2004	2009	24-29	2936	2681	687	103	160	513	19	31	.256	.299	.440	.739
10	Andujar Cedeno	SS	HOU/SDP/DET	1994	1996	24-26	1159	1067	243	25	72	241	11	7	.228	.285	.352	.637
11	Cristian Guzman	SS	MIN/WSN	2002	2009	24-31	3716	3473	962	41	156	451	59	41	.277	.309	.386	.696
12	Jose Guillen	RF	8 Tms	2000	2009	24-33	4389	4005	1097	164	231	745	25	19	.274	.329	.457	.785
13	Peter Bergeron	CF	MON	2002	2004	24-26	193	165	32	0	24	60	10	4	.194	.296	.236	.533
14	Mike Caruso	IF	KCR	2002	2002	25	21	20	2	0	1	2	0	0	.100	.143	.100	.243
15	Alex Gonzalez	SS	6 Tms	1997	2006	24-33	4457	4030	988	113	299	907	74	38	.245	.302	.393	.694

Obviously Sammy Sosa had by far the best career offensively. Journeyman Jose Guillen has had the second-best career. (Gee, I wonder how that happened.) Yadier Molina is a budding star and Jose Lopez is beginning to realize his power potential. Christian Guzman, Juan Uribe, and (each) Alex Gonzalez have had lengthy careers and aren't bad players, but they're hardly stars. I'm not going to touch Cesar Izturis or Corey Patterson.

Andujar Cedeno is interesting because he actually peaked at age 23. He hit well in 1993 and 1994, especially for a shortstop, but fell off a cliff following the players' strike. He was out of the majors by 27 and died in a car accident at age 31. Mike Caruso was the guy the Giants hoped Brian Bocock could be. He made the 1998 White Sox after spending 1997 in High A ball. All he did was hit .306 with 22 steals in his rookie year. He too suffered a sharp decline. You might remember Peter Bergeron's name from his time with AAA Indianapolis in 2004.

In any event, it's certainly possible for a young player to overcome a poor start offensively and turn into a decent player. Certainly good defenders get plenty of opportunities to do so. The chances of such a player turning into a star? Not very good.

I, for one, certainly wouldn't mind being surprised.