Brew Crew Ball

How to Hit Daisuke

jacob — Fri, 16 May 2008 18:39:48 -0000

I took a tour of Josh Kalk's web based pitchf/x tool to get a sense of what to look for from Daisuke.

Here's what I came up with. I thought I had heard that Daisuke was a guy with a big repertoire, five, maybe six pitches, but Josh's tool really shows him as a guy with three pitches, fastball, slider, changeup. There's over 1400 pitches here, and I believe it's all 2007 data.

Daisuke's fastball sits at an average of 93 mph with decent tail in on right handed batters, his slider is thrown at a modest 84-85 mph and breaks away from right handed hitters. The changeup is thrown mostly in hitters counts to RHBs. Only about 10% of his pitches are changeups which looks like a subpar pitch.

first pitch: hitters want to sit on the fastball low and away, he'll throw that about 60% of the time. He'll start it off the plate and try to get it to tail into the strikezone.

hitter's counts: 60% sliders, mostly thrown for strikes so they'll start middle-in and break away.

pitcher's counts: daisuke will waste a fastball 0-2 high or outside, and try to get you to chase a slider outside on 1-2. Daisuke would rather challenge the hitters. 3-2 will be a low fastball.

recommendation: jump on the fastball 0-0 and 3-2, lay off the slider away 1-2, in the hitters counts take the sliders for strikes to get to a 2-2, or 3-2 fastball. Daisuke doesn't want to go 3-2, and doesn't want to walk you.

Time to move Weeks down in the order

80badger — Thu, 15 May 2008 19:30:14 -0000

After watching Rickie struggle to light the fire for the Crew this season in the lead-off slot I started to jump on the "send him down" bandwagon. Luckily I caught myself and decided to actually go look at his stats and see how he ranked against the other lead-off guys in the NL.

Now I will be the first to admit that I am no stat wizard, never played one on TV and I did not sleep in a Holiday Inn Express last night ;-). Having said that, I think what I pulled makes sense but I have little doubt that Jeff, or KL or The Jay or someone more versed in black magic will let me know where I may have gone astray, and probably rightfully so.

So if nothing else than to foster some discussion on the subject and get my first hack at blogging stats under my belt here is what I pulled.

Below are the BA and OBP's for all the NL leadoff guys as of last night. I have sorted the players by BA in the first block and OBP in the second block. These are 2008 season to date numbers. You will see that Rickie is at the bottom in BA and below current avg on OBP. Because I am an unapologetic Corey Hart fan I included his numbers for grins, he might not be a bad alternative!!!!

After looking at this I am not ready to clang the bell that Rickie needs a visit to Nashville but some movement down several slots in the order I think are prudent, not only for Rickie’s benefit but for that of the team. Thoughts?

Team	Player	BA	OBP
Rockies	Spillborghs	0.323	0.392
Braves	Escobar	0.311	0.388
Brewers	Hart	0.304	0.363
Dodgers	Pierre	0.297	0.364
Phillies	Rollins	0.294	0.308
Giants	Lewis	0.287	0.358
Nats	Lopez	0.273	0.350
Cards	Barton	0.267	0.371
Average		0.259	0.327
Mets	Reyes	0.258	0.329
Cubs	Soriano	0.257	0.293
Pirates	Sanchez	0.253	0.282
Dbacks	Young	0.250	0.341
Reds	Patterson	0.235	0.282
Padres	Hairston	0.228	0.273
Marlins	Ross	0.191	0.260
Brewers	Weeks	0.187	0.311
Astros	Bourin	0.187	0.298


Team	Player	BA	OBP
Rockies	Spillborghs	0.323	0.392
Braves	Escobar	0.311	0.388
Cards	Barton	0.267	0.371
Dodgers	Pierre	0.297	0.364
Brewers	Hart	0.304	0.363
Giants	Lewis	0.287	0.358
Nats	Lopez	0.273	0.350
Dbacks	Young	0.250	0.341
Mets	Reyes	0.258	0.329
Average		0.259	0.327
Brewers	Weeks	0.187	0.311
Phillies	Rollins	0.294	0.308
Astros	Bourin	0.187	0.298
Cubs	Soriano	0.257	0.293
Pirates	Sanchez	0.253	0.282
Reds	Patterson	0.235	0.282
Padres	Hairston	0.228	0.273
Marlins	Ross	0.191	0.260

Final thought: if we are looking for other answers for the lead off slot and were to actually send Rickie down and want to pull up someone from the minors here are the 2 most likely prospects and their numbers.

Nashville Nunez .210 .306

Huntsville Escobar .269 .299

Brewers Make Onion Sports Page Today

heybatterbatter — Thu, 15 May 2008 15:47:53 -0000

Piggly Wiggly Scouting Report Indicates J.J. Hardy Enjoys Rib-Eye Steaks

MILWAUKEE—A Piggly Wiggly-sponsored scouting report shown during an at-bat by Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy Sunday indicated that his major weakness is a hankering for Piggly Wiggly-brand certified angus beef boneless rib-eye steaks, now just $4.99 a pound. "J.J. is very strong when it comes to purchasing three Ole El Paso Mexican Dinner Kits for $5, but he's struggled lately with Golden Flake-brand potato chips, as he hasn't bought a single bag since last August," said FSN North play-by-play announcer Brian Anderson, reading from the onscreen scouting report. "Perhaps [opposing Cardinals pitcher] Braden Looper can take advantage of the fact that J.J. does not like Tyson breaded chicken fingers." After Hardy grounded out to third base, Anderson called it a textbook case of Ronco vermicelli being on sale for 69 cents.

http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/

piggly_wiggly_scouting?utm_source=onion_rss_daily

Braun Reportedly Agrees to 7-year Extension

stigmo — Thu, 15 May 2008 13:41:35 -0000

UPDATE: Fox Sports has confirmed: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8141962/Brewers-give-young-star-Braun-long-term-deal

ESPN Radio here in Madison just reported that Ryan Braun has agreed to a 7-year extension. No news from the media yet. All I could find was this vague link from brewers.com reporting a major press conference. I'm sure updates will be posted when available. No word yet on money...

This certainly would be a huge move. It will also be interesting to see how it affects negotiations with Sheets, Fielder, Hart, etc.

Questions for an Expat's first trip to Miller Park

Brew Angel — Wed, 14 May 2008 23:50:46 -0000

I'll be making my first trip back to Wisconsin since 2000 in late June,
and I'm planning to take my wife & 4-year-old son to the Brewers/Orioles
game on Friday the 20th. (It's the only game that fits in the family
travel schedule). I went to plenty of games at County Stadium before
moving to SoCal in 1998, but this will be my first visit to Miller Park.
Personally, I'd be happy sitting in the Uecker seats with a couple of
brats, a bag of peanuts, and a six-pack of Miller Lite, but I need some
insider information to ensure that the family enjoys the game as much as
me!

So here are some questions, in no particular order of importance:

Seats: My son loves Ryan Braun (who doesn't, besides Cardinal/Cub
fans?), so much so that at spring training this year he kept asking me
to point out where Ryan Braun was on the field. ("Daddy, where's Ryan
Braun now?" Thankfully we were sitting on the left-field side in
Maryvale so he could see the Brauntasaurus.) So I'm planning to get
left-field box seats, either field- or loge-level. Recommendations? Is
the view significantly better at the field level, or is it more a
question of what row you're in? (i.e. If the choice is between the 4th
row loge or 26th row field, which would you choose?)

Tickets: Is there an option other than StubHub or ordering direct from
the Brewers' website? (I don't necessarily have a problem with StubHub
or the website, I'm just wondering if there are other options.)

Driving/Parking: I'm planning to pay for preferred parking in advance.
Worth it? And since we'll be driving up from (-shudder-) Chicago the
day of the game, is there a good approach coming up I-94 that can help
avoid some of the game-time traffic?

Food: We'll be gorging on brats, naturally, but is there a particular
concession stand along the left-field side that has better food than the
others?

Kids: The Li'l Dude has been to about 20 Angels games, a couple of
Dodger games, and some Cactus League games. He's okay for about 3
innings, then he needs to be entertained. The Miller Park section of
the Brewers' website mentions a Kids' Playland near Bernie's clubhouse,
but I can't find any specifics as to kid-type activities. The Angels
have a "Family Fun Pavilion" with T-ball, ring-toss, and other games for
the kiddies. Is the Kids Playland similar?

Souvenirs: I have my vintage Brewers jersey. The Li'l Dude already has his Brewers cap and Ryan Braun T-shirt to wear to the game, but he's still growing. Which store at the Stadium stocks the widest range of kid-sized merchandise? Do any of them stock a variety of womens' styles for the wife?

I appreciate any answers/thoughts/recommendations you might have!

Question about Bill Hall's defense

cwyers — Wed, 14 May 2008 17:23:41 -0000

This is probably a moot point right now - seeing as Hall is no longer an outfielder - but I was doing some graphing this morning and I had a question.

Here's a graph of Bill Hall in the outfield last year:

Compared to, say, Jim Edmonds:

Color-coding indicates frequency of plays made at that location - blue means a lot of plays, red means fewer plays.

(If you're curious - I'm looking at Edmonds for obvious reasons; Hall had similar RZR/OOZ numbers in a similar amount of opportunities and so I thought it might be an interesting one-on-one comparison.)

The larger number of blue "clusters" in the Hall graph indicates (to me, at least) a larger number of starting positions for Hall than Edmonds. Does that match up well with your experience watching Hall last season?

SOS & RPI

Kyguy922 — Wed, 14 May 2008 15:19:48 -0000

As the Brewers sit a game above .500 and look to the rest of the series with the Dodgers, and look forward to the series with the Red Sox, all things considered, the Brewers are in a good situation in terms of schedule.

Based off ESPN's SOS and RPI, the Brewers have had the toughest schedule thus far, with opponents win % at .527. This looks to only get harder as the Brewers play a top team in the Red Sox at Fenway. During the course of the year, I would imagine the Cubs will not win at the current pace they have, as well as the Marlins and Cardinals, so the SOS number will probably go down as the pace of 96 wins seems unlikely for all three. And playing in an arguably weaker division could bring down the SOS, even though I don't know if that stereotype of the Central being the worst division in baseball will hold out this year.

The good news is the schedule should get easier with more games vs the Reds (have played 6 of the 18) and Pirates (have played 0 of the 15 ) during the course of the year. Cardinals we have played 9 games, and they appear to be one of the better teams in the NL Central. Plus all 6 of the Cubs games have been at Wrigley so far.

I know this is not college basketball, but if it was, the Brewers could have a chance to grab the last #1 seed, as they are ranked #4 in the RPI which takes 25% of your team's record, 50% of opponents' record and 25% of your opponents' oppenents' record. The Brewers are behind the Rays, Cubs and Red Sox.

ESPN RPI

This is a good sign, last year the top 5 RPI's were the Red Sox, Indians, LAA, NYY and Rockies, all in the playoffs.

I know it is early in the year and the Crew have technically lost their #1B pitcher in Gallardo. But I don't expect Fielder to be a .250 hitter with 20 HRs, and continue to have our #1, #2 and #6 hitter all batting around .200. Even if they did, I think with the schedule the Brewers record would improve with the easier teams they are scheduled to play. If they improve on these numbers to along with the easier schedule, they could be in really good shape. I know it is a long season, but just trying to put things in perspective.

Uecker Suave (in SI!)

MooseHaas — Wed, 14 May 2008 15:11:45 -0000

From the top of the Brewers article in this week's SI (check the dude on the right!):

This photo has to be getting Ann E. Ladd excited.

Seriously, though, I kind of liked this story, even if the grumpy JS blog says there's nothing to see. Three select snippets, beyond the Uecker pic:

1. Gagne makes blunders off the field, too: When the Brewers landed in Fort Lauderdale at 10:30 p.m., two buses and a stretch limousine were waiting for them. The limo was for Gagné. What timing. He had just blown a save -- he was in fact a week away from losing the closer job -- and now he was going to parade down Ocean Drive? Gagné, in fact, had ordered a town car, not a limo. And his trip was not to South Beach but to Vero Beach, a sleepy retirement community two hours north where the Dodgers held spring training.

2. That thing Yost wouldn't talk about w/ Gagne? It's in here. Using laptops, pitching coach Mike Maddux reviewed video with Gagné and worked on the closer's release point.

3. The reason for Prince's slump? His jersey was too tight. When Fielder felt as though his jersey was constricting his swing a few weeks ago, Migliaccio ordered one with wider sleeves.

More PITCHf/x goodies

dixieflatline — Tue, 13 May 2008 21:36:07 -0000

Last fanpost in a while I promise. Here is the info from Gagne's two innings yesterday. He threw 26 fastballs, 4 change ups, and 0 curves according to MLBAM. Here is the side view of the averaged pitches.

via baseball.bornbybits.com

Now obviously the sample here is tiny but, if anything, his change appears worse than it did the rest of the season. He might be better throwing a majority of fastballs but I wouldn't be too quick to give him his closers role back. Bush too threw a ton of fastballs. MLBAM says 60 fastballs 11 curves, 11 changes, and 10 sliders which I think pretty much everyone else calls a cutter. Whatever, you get the idea.

Also, I generated a list of every brewer pitcher's pitches by their runs100 . Now runs100 is based off linear weights for 100 pitches so a negative number is good. It also is funny because 0 isn't league average. I'll post the league averages first. I have tweaked the horrible pitch identification for brewer pitchers but not yet for the league

type runs100 number

---------------------------------
Fastball -1.17018 82942
Sinker -0.111099 1865
Curve -2.16034 12847
Slider -2.61032 20880
Change -0.873506 16887
Splitter -1.76619 1686
Cutter -2.09699 3724

Here are the brewer pitchers

Dave_Bush Fastball -0.916794 393
Dave_Bush Curve -1.24744 78
Dave_Bush Change 1.05 60
Dave_Bush Cutter -0.0396226 53
Eric_Gagne Fastball 0.909195 174
Eric_Gagne Curve -2.42105 19
Eric_Gagne Change 1.22877 146
Seth_McClung Fastball -3.0339 177
Seth_McClung Curve 0.794915 59
Seth_McClung Slider 1.86667 15
Guillermo_Mota Fastball -4.9947 132
Guillermo_Mota Slider -3.78438 96
Guillermo_Mota Change 2.86087 69
Manny_Parra Fastball 2.72681 332
Manny_Parra Curve -2.01069 131
Manny_Parra Slider -2.37143 35
Manny_Parra Change -2.02055 73
David_Riske Fastball -0.815888 214
David_Riske Slider -1.47857 14
David_Riske Change 2.92245 49
Ben_Sheets Fastball -2.27481 393
Ben_Sheets Curve -4.0783 235
Ben_Sheets Change -4.86389 36
Brian_Shouse Slider -5.03894 113
Jeff_Suppan Fastball 0.137662 308
Jeff_Suppan Sinker -1.38269 52
Jeff_Suppan Slider -3.95391 128
Jeff_Suppan Change 1.14329 164
Salomon_Torres Fastball -1.91856 264
Salomon_Torres Slider -4.98929 28
Salomon_Torres Splitter 0.317391 46
Derrick_Turnbow Fastball 2.16512 86
Derrick_Turnbow Slider -5.18095 21
Carlos_Villanueva Fastball 0.882283 254
Carlos_Villanueva Curve -0.892308 91
Carlos_Villanueva Slider -1.04917 120
Carlos_Villanueva Change -3.47846 130
Yovani_Gallardo Fastball -2.97153 137
Yovani_Gallardo Curve -0.928713 101
Yovani_Gallardo Slider 0.292593 54
Mitch_Stetter Fastball 0.0511628 43
Mitch_Stetter Slider -0.82906 117

Shouse is all screwed up with his side arm action totally messing up the identification. I haven't been able to fix his yet. If you take a peak at McClung it looks like his off speed pitches kind of suck. This makes me think that he wouldn't make it as a starter. Bush, Villy,, and Parra really have been having trouble with their fastballs. Before last night Bush's fastball number was in Gagne territory. Speaking of him, you can see that neither his fastball or change has been doing the job. Stetter's fastball took a huge hit yesterday as he couldn't throw strikes he threw a ton of fastballs and still missed the zone. Sheets change, though new, looks very effective. Maybe that is a good sign for the rest of the year. Though maybe the league will catch up to it.

Have fun.

The Fastest Mental Break in MLB History, Gagne says he's ready to close again

Scooter82 — Tue, 13 May 2008 04:45:27 -0000

2 Innings and 1 ER after Gagne said this, "I do not deserve the ninth inning right now." He has an interview with Tom H. of JSOnline for the purpose of saying, "I had my mental break (Sunday), I'm good to go now. I know I belong in the ninth inning." It's good to see confidence out of our $10 million dollar man, but come on what has changed since Sunday that he suddenly feels as though its 2002 again?

Eric Gagne's Change from 2007 and 2008

dixieflatline — Mon, 12 May 2008 15:59:50 -0000

In the game thread yesterday there was some interest in seeing some plots from Gagne from 2007 with a Boston and Texas split and then his 2008 stuff. I mentioned that this year he was relying on his change a lot more in 2007 and maybe it wasn't as good of a pitch as it was before. There was some talk about that being the problem in Boston as well. So here is the plot of his fastball and change from 2007 while in Texas.

via baseball.bornbybits.com

I know it says curve but it means change I just forgot to change that when I ported the code over from my curveball study. In any case, you can see how his release point looks pretty reasonable and the change mirrors the fastball well before dropping late. The two tick marks are when the ball has traveled .075 seconds which is what Adair calls the information gathering time in his book. Now here is the Boston data.

via baseball.bornbybits.com

Wow that looks very similar to me. It appears like his change really didn't change so either his problems were with another pitch or mental or maybe just plain dumb luck. Here is the 2008 data however.

via baseball.bornbybits.com

Hey I finally got the change up labeled correctly, Anyway, yikes! Gange's change is now crossing over his fastball and isn't dropping much at all compared to his fastball. Again this data is uncorrected but I think there is a real problem here. While the speed difference is still nearly 9 MPHs but if the batters can recognize the difference in speed they really don't have to lower the bat much. I have no idea what needs to be altered in his delivery to fix this but it is pretty clear to me that something really needs to be fixed. The crazy thing is he is throwing that crappy change so much here in 2008 compared to 2007 .

Changes needed in Milwaukee

jimmyb1799 — Sun, 11 May 2008 15:27:13 -0000

I know that Ned Yost and Doug Melvin are discussing the starting rotation today. That is a problem, but I am not overly convinced that the Crew has anyone that can do better than Villy or Bush.

There are some changes that need to be made. Eric Gagne, Bill Hall, and company are killing the Brewers right now. Is there any hope on the horizon? I believe there is. See more about what changes I am talking about right here.

gagne is french canadian for turnblow

b3nihana — Sun, 11 May 2008 04:32:08 -0000

I despise this guy. His unabomber lookin beard, his goggles that always fog up, and he can't save a lead, or hold one at that. The bats haven't started either, but no matter the situation, gag-knee sucks it up. I am so glad it was a one year deal, he's a joke of a pitcher when he's not cheating (mitchell report). The extra year and a couple million dollars more, and we'd still have coco closing out the games.

Rotation Review

Ted Simmons Speed Camp — Sun, 11 May 2008 04:04:35 -0000

So the meeting between Yost, his staff and Melvin which was mentioned early in the week will center around spots 3-5 in the rotation, according to Yost (as quoted in JSOnline). (I don't really believe that's all they'll discuss, but that's what Ned would admit to). Yost said Parra would stick in the rotation, which isn't that surprising given the fact that he settled down after a shaky start the other night, which puts him ahead of Bush and Villy's most recent outings. But it also probably reflects the fact that there just aren't enough alternatives available to replace 3 starters, so one of the 3-5 guys (at least) has to stick.

There's been talk of giving McClung a shot in the rotation to see how he does, and it's hard to argue with that idea given the 6+ ERAs Bush and Villy are currently touting. (Though personally it's my opinion that he's been effective enough in the bullpen that it's a shame to pull him out). Defelice got lit up in his last start at AAA, but has otherwise been decent in Nashville, and given our pitching woes it's hard to imagine that Jeff Weaver won't be brought up sometime before the June deadline in his contract. Are there any other alternatives in the system, because none of the three alternatives I've seen knowledgable people discuss have me all that excited, though the performance of Villy and Bush has been bad enough it's hard to argue against giving them a shot.

Time to clean house

stigmo — Sun, 11 May 2008 03:17:35 -0000

The ranting and raving of a Brewers fan and lunatic with a limited baseball knowledge:

Time to clean house. Get rid of Yost. Get rid of Sveum (Thank goodness that guy isn't a school crossing guard!). Take it on the chin and can Gagne. We lost Sheets' start, so now we've got four more games of starter pitcher lines of 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 109 pitches.

You all know baseball a lot better than I do. What could we get for Sheets realistically? Could we pull some top level pitching prospects so that next year's rotation isn't total crap in the 2-5 slots? Might a contender in need of a back-of-the-rotation starter take Suppan off our hands at the deadline?

If we could ditch these guys, couldn't we start '09 with Braun, Fielder, Hart, and Gallardo as the core along with some serious pocket change to go on a bender when free agency comes around?

Also, can we put Bill Hall down? I don't mean put him down as in insult him. Or put him down as in send him down to the minors. I mean put him to sleep. He makes me on a Friday afternoon with baseball on the radio look productive.

Lastly, F the cubs.

Rant over. I'm sorry for wasting your time and page space, but I feel better.

Gagne, backing up Ned's persistance in him

Scooter82 — Sun, 11 May 2008 02:14:31 -0000

Just read an article on JSOnline. They interviewed Eric Gagne following todays game, and while Ned Yost continues to sit and wait because he doesn't make decisions following tough losses, it appears Gagne is suggesting the move for our thick-headed skipper.

"I don't deserve that ninth inning right now. It's very simple," said Gagne, who surrendered two ninth-inning runs that allowed St. Louis to pull out a 5-3 victory at Miller Park.

How can you continue with a guy in the 9th, after he admits he doesn't even believe he can get it done?

Full Article Here

Bye,Ned!

durango51 — Sat, 10 May 2008 23:57:18 -0000

Please God, when Yost gets the can tied to him (my guess is on or before 5/25), make sure he takes "Wave 'Em Thru" Sveum with him. Also, do you think we could trade Eric Gagne for Vern Gagne? Yeah, I know Vern is dead, but so are Eric's brain and arm.

It says I have to write 75 words when 54 did the job. I guess economy of expression isn't valued. So there!

Kevin Mench is back

drezdn — Fri, 09 May 2008 20:45:15 -0000

With a surplus of giant hats left over after they DFA'd Frank Thomas, the Toronto Blue Jays realized that they had a need for a lefty mashing Shrek look-a-like. So, in exchange for cash considerations, Kevin Mench has been fished out of AAA and sent to Toronto.

This raises a few questions for the June Brewers/Blue Jays series... Will Mench get a tribute video ala Jenkins? Will he be booed by Brewers fans? Will anyone remember him enough to boo him?

A look at Ben Sheets fastball and curve from a side view

dixieflatline — Fri, 09 May 2008 20:09:07 -0000

So here is the latest PITCHf/x creation. I am plotting an average fastball and curveball for different pitchers to try to find the infamous "hump" to the curve. These plots are shown standing near where the 3rd base coach might be standing looking at the pitch from the side. Currently, I am only using the crappy 2008 data but things don't look terrible. Here is Ben Sheets.

via baseball.bornbybits.com

Sheets is supposed to have a very small hump or no hump so when I saw this I was a bit surprised. You can see that Sheets is releasing the two pitches from slightly different release points which matches up with what we have seen from the 2007 data.

via baseball.bornbybits.com

Sheets average fastball tends to be up in the zone with the curve near the knees. This looked like a pretty big "hump" to me so I decided to look at a crappy pitcher to compare.

via baseball.bornbybits.com

Ponson tends to work down in the zone with both his fastball and curve. This results in a huge "hump" to his curve. Also look at the difference in release point. I have to imagine that this is basically telling batters what is coming.

Anyway, I am hoping to have some more quantitative stuff on this for my next THT article if anyone finds this stuff interesting.

Lineup changes

Kyguy922 — Thu, 08 May 2008 19:26:49 -0000

JSOnline

Interesting Yost takes out the 3 highest OBP guys to upstart the lineup. I guess you will hear some people complain if he changes it, and you will hear people complain if he doesn't change anything and we continue to lose. I miss seeing Kapler play, but overall a win would be MUCH appreciated. I have let the Brewers start affecting my mood, so everyone who knows me would appreciate a win too.