It feels like we've been waiting for this game for a week.

After discussing, disbelieving, decrying and dreading it for several days, the hour has arrived for Shaun Marcum (3.54 ERA, 3.73 FIP in 2011, 12.46 ERA, 6.49 FIP postseason) to make his second start of the NLCS. As the numbers would suggest, Marcum is having a remarkably poor postseason. In Game 2 on Monday he allowed five runs on seven hits over four innings, walking one and striking out one in a 12-3 Brewer loss.

We've talked a lot recently about Marcum's stuff: If you missed it, go see Jordan's post from earlier this week. Really, though, two numbers sum up his problem:

• On Monday he threw his changeup, easily his best pitch and one of the best of its kind in baseball, just eleven times in 72 pitches. (Roughly 15%). He threw his fastball and/or cutter, both of which sit in the mid-80's and feature nearly no movement, 52 times.
• Marcum faced 19 batters on Monday, and got just three swinging strikes.

If he fails to use his changeup and fool batters again tonight, he's probably in for another short outing.

Including this week's start, Marcum has faced the Cardinals five times this season. He's recorded three quality starts, a rough outing on August 2 (6 IP, 6 ER) and Tuesday's disaster. Nine Cardinals have faced him ten times or more:

For the second time in the series, Marcum gets a shot at West Germany-born Edwin Jackson (3.79 ERA, 3.55 FIP 2011, 3.48 ERA, 3.51 FIP postseason). Jackson was hit around a bit but managed to mostly keep the Brewers off the board in Game 2, allowing two runs on seven hits over just 4.1 innings. He threw 82 pitches in the start.

You can say a lot of things about Jackson, but it's worth noting that he almost always pitches deep into games. His 4.1 inning outing on Monday was his shortest start since April 28, when the White Sox lifted him after four innings in a 12-3 loss to the Yankees. The 82 pitches he threw on Tuesday were the least he's thrown in a start in almost two full seasons.

Counting Tuesday, Jackson has made four starts against the Brewers in 2011. He's pitched two quality starts, the short start on Tuesday and an absolute disaster on August 3. Eight Brewers have faced him ten times or more:

Here's tonight's lineup:

Corey Hart RF
Nyjer Morgan CF
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Rickie Weeks 2B
Jerry Hairston Jr 3B
Yuniesky Betancourt SS
Jonathan Lucroy C
Shaun Marcum P

And in the bullpen:

Marco Estrada pitched one inning (27 pitches) Friday.
Kameron Loe pitched one inning (17 pitches) Friday.
Chris Narveson pitched .1 innings (one pitch) Friday.
Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford last pitched on Thursday.
LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito last pitched on Wednesday.

The roof is closed tonight, so the weather will not be a factor. Enjoy the game!

This is where I normally write a one sentence intro, but all I can think of is "Hello, I'm a bear."

Tonight, in a rematch of Game 1, the Brewers face Jaime Garcia (3.56 ERA, 2.23 FIP in 2011, 7.36 ERA, 7.12 FIP postseason). He's been the losing pitcher in both of his outings this postseason, including a four inning, six run outing against the Brewers on Sunday. He walked three and struck out three while throwing 82 pitches in that game, and allowed home runs to both Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.

Dating back to August 2, Garcia has failed to record an out in the sixth inning in six of his last 12 appearances, and been limited to four innings in two of his last three. Even with the short outings, though, he's thrown 205.2 innings this season. That's 42 more than his previous career high.

This is Garcia's fourth start against the Brewers this season: He pitched a complete game shutout on May 6, but combined to allow 13 runs over nine innings in the other two games. Eight Brewers have faced him ten times or more:

He'll face Zack Greinke (3.83 ERA, 2.93 FIP in 2011, 8.18 ERA, 5.93 FIP postseason), who could really use a signature outing tonight to prove that he's not intimidated by big games or something. He pitched six innings on Sunday and gave up six runs on eight hits, walking two and striking out six.

Greinke's results this October have been a microcosm of his season: He's striking out over ten batters per nine innings, walking less than two and somehow he's still giving up runs in bunches. He needed 107 pitches to get through six innings on Sunday, but he's on normal rest tonight so that shouldn't be an issue.

Greinke has faced the Cardinals four times now this season, and his previous start in this series is the only time he didn't pitch a quality start. Nine Cardinals have faced him ten times or more:

Tonight's lineup is your garden variety setup vs lefties:

Corey Hart RF
Jerry Hairston Jr 3B
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Rickie Weeks 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt SS
Carlos Gomez CF
Jonathan Lucroy C
Zack Greinke P

And in the bullpen:

Francisco Rodriguez pitched one inning (18 pitches) last night.
John Axford pitched one inning (16 pitches) last night.
LaTroy Hawkins pitched one inning (20 pitches) Wednesday.
Chris Narveson pitched one inning (13 pitches) Wednesday.
Takashi Saito pitched one inning (eight pitches) Wednesday.
Marco Estrada and Kameron Loe last pitched on Monday.

The weather shouldn't be a factor tonight: The game time temperature will be somewhere around 61 and falling into the low 50's with no precipitation in sight.

The Brewers have three chances this week to win a game in St. Louis and bring the NLCS back to Milwaukee. Last night's didn't go so well, but the second is tonight.

Tonight they'll get a shot at Kyle Lohse (3.39 ERA, 3.67 FIP in 2011, 8.44 ERA, 6.96 FIP postseason), making his first start in 12 days. Lohse hasn't pitched in a game since Game 1 of the NLDS on October 1. He was knocked around in that outing, allowing six runs (five earned) on seven hits over 5.1 innings, walking one and striking out four. He allowed two home runs in that game. Tonight's game will be Lohse's eighth career playoff appearance: His teams have gone 1-6 in the previous seven.

Before his rough start to open the postseason, Lohse had a pretty solid stretch run. He posted a 1.72 ERA over his final five starts, and didn't allow a home run in any of them. He allowed two in his first playoff start. He also struck out 26 while walking just seven over 31.1 innings in his last five starts of the season. He throws a ~90 mph fastball, a plus change and slider and the occasional curve.

Lohse has faced the Brewers three times this season, with mixed results:

Eleven Brewers have faced him ten times or more:

Meanwhile, the Brewers are also getting a second postseason start out of Randy Wolf (3.69 ERA, 4.29 FIP in 2011, 21.00 ERA, 13.36 FIP postseason). Wolf is pitching on eight days' rest: He last pitched on Game 4 against the Diamondbacks on October 5 and allowed seven runs on eight hits over three innings, walking three and striking out two.

Wolf's seven runs allowed in Game 4 tied a season high: He also allowed seven runs in a game against the Diamondbacks on July 5. Since then, though, he had posted a 3.65 ERA over 101 innings, striking out 54 and walking 29.

Wolf has faced the Cardinals five times this season and been all over the map:

Eight Cardinals have faced him ten times or more:

Here's tonight's lineup:

Nyjer Morgan CF
Mark Kotsay RF
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Rickie Weeks 2B
Jerry Hairston Jr 3B
Yuniesky Betancourt SS
George Kottaras C
Randy Wolf P

And in the bullpen:

LaTroy Hawkins pitched one inning (20 pitches) last night.
Chris Narveson pitched one inning (13 pitches) last night.
Takashi Saito pitched one inning (eight pitches) last night.
Marco Estrada and Kameron Loe last pitched on Monday.
John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez haven't pitched since Sunday.

Weather:

Rain should not be a factor tonight, as the game time temperature in St. Louis is expected to be around 65 and fall into the upper 50's overnight. The Weather Channel says there's a 10% chance of precipitation.

Tonight, the Brewers have a golden opportunity to lock down a strong advantage in the NLCS.

However, to do it they'll probably need a strong start from Shaun Marcum (3.54 ERA, 3.73 FIP in 2011, 13.50 ERA, 6.45 FIP postseason), and lately that's been a lot to ask for. Marcum struggled in three of his last four regular season starts and again on Tuesday, allowing seven runs on seven hits over 4.2 innings.

This is the paragraph where I normally tell you about recent trends with Marcum's stuff, but today Jack Moore of FanGraphs beat me to the punch. He's not seeing a notable decline in Marcum's fastball velocity but did notice a sharp decline in the usage of his changeup, which has always been his most effective pitch. Whether Marcum is fatigued or simply struggling with the change, he probably needs to find a way to throw it well and often to be effective.

This is the fifth time Marcum has faced the Cardinals in 2011, and three of the previous four outings were pretty good:

Eight Cardinals have faced Marcum ten times or more:

He'll face off against Edwin Jackson (3.79 ERA, 3.55 FIP in 2011, 2.61 ERA, 3.75 FIP postseason). He's making his fifth career postseason appearance: He worked in relief three times as a member of the 2008 Rays, and this is his second start as a member of the Cardinals. He pitched six innings in NLDS Game 4 on Wednesday, allowing two runs on five hits over six innings. The Cardinals won the game, 5-3.

You might not have realized it (I didn't), but Jackson is quite the workhorse. He's only 28 but has averaged roughly 208 innings over the last three regular seasons. The list of pitchers to break 200 innings three times before their 29th birthday recently is pretty elite company: Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver and Cole Hamels.

Jackson faced the Brewers three times in August, with extraordinarily mixed results:

Eight Brewers have faced Jackson ten times or more:

Here's tonight's lineup:

Corey Hart RF
Nyjer Morgan CF
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Rickie Weeks 2B
Jerry Hairston Jr 3B
Yuniesky Betancourt SS
Jonathan Lucroy C
Shaun Marcum P

And in the bullpen:

Francisco Rodriguez pitched one inning (19 pitches) last night.
John Axford pitched one inning (13 pitches) last night, and Ron Roenicke confirmed he's available.
Takashi Saito pitched one inning (13 pitches) last night.
Chris Narveson, Marco Estrada and Kameron Loe pitched on Wednesday.
LaTroy Hawkins hasn't pitched since Sunday, October 2.

The roof is expected to be open tonight, with the game time temperature around 63 and dropping into the 50's as the night goes along.

Today is kind of a big deal.

The Brewers open the National League Championship Series with Zack Greinke (3.83 ERA, 2.98 FIP in 2011, 7.20 ERA, 8.03 FIP playoffs) on the mound. Hopefully whatever issues he was undergoing in his playoff debut are over now and he's ready to go: He allowed four runs on eight hits over five innings on Sunday, allowing three home runs. He struck out seven and walked none in the game, throwing 86 pitches on short rest.

Those three home runs Greinke allowed a week ago were the most he's allowed as a Brewer, and the most he's allowed in any game since 2009. Amazingly, in the middle of his incredible Cy Young season Greinke allowed three home runs in an August start against the White Sox. It happens, I guess.

Greinke made three starts against the Cardinals this season and was pretty good in all of them:

Six Cardinals have faced him ten times or more:

Meanwhile the Cardinals will send Jaime Garcia (3.56 ERA, 3.23 FIP in 2011, 3.86 ERA, 4.88 FIP postseason), who has quietly put together a really good season. Garcia posted 3.6 fWAR in 2011, half a win better than his 2010 season and the best on the Cardinals by any pitcher not named Chris Carpenter. Like Greinke he made his career postseason debut last week: He allowed three runs on six hits over seven innings Tuesday, walking two and striking out one.

Like so many young pitchers this time of year, Garcia is in uncharted territory in terms of innings pitched. He threw easily a career high 163.1 in 2011, and has now thrown 201.2 between the regular season and playoffs in 2011. His velocity was down a few tenths of a mph on Tuesday, but not enough to raise a red flag. He only threw his fastball 36 times over 100 pitches, though, which is interesting.

Garcia made two starts against the Brewers this season and the results could not have been more different:

He's faced eight Brewers ten times or more:

Here's today's lineup:

Corey Hart RF
Jerry Hairston Jr 3B
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Rickie Weeks 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt SS
Carlos Gomez CF
Jonathan Lucroy C
Zack Greinke P

And in the bullpen:

John Axford pitched two innings (28 pitches) Friday.
Francisco Rodriguez pitched one inning (26 pitches) Friday.
Takashi Saito pitched one inning (14 pitches) Friday.
Chris Narveson, Marco Estrada and Kameron Loe pitched on Wednesday.
LaTroy Hawkins hasn't pitched since Sunday.

The roof is expected to be open today on a beautiful day for baseball: Game time temps will be around 73 and will fall into the 60's as the day goes along.

And here we are again, back where we started.

The Brewers' playoff lives are in the hands of their hottest starting pitcher, and that's not a bad place for them to be. Yovani Gallardo (3.52 ERA, 3.59 FIP in 2011, 1.13 ERA, 2.78 FIP playoffs) returns to the mound at Miller Park for the first time since powering the Crew to a Game 1 victory on Saturday. He pitched eight innings in that game and allowed a run on four hits, walking one and striking out nine. The earned run was the first he's allowed in 15 career postseason innings.

If Saturday's start was any indication, expect to see a lot of sliders from Gallardo today. 29 of his 107 pitches in Game 1 (27%) were sliders, and he threw his four seam fastball just 47% of the time. His fastball has been his best pitch this season at +0.60 runs per 100.

Gallardo held the Diamondbacks to just four hits on Saturday, but Willie Bloomquist had two of them. One of the others was Ryan Roberts' solo home run. Four current Diamondbacks have seen Gallardo ten times or more:

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks also likely feel like they have their best pitcher on the mound: Ian Kennedy (2.88 ERA, 3.22 FIP in 2011, 5.40 ERA, 5.43 FIP playoffs) pitched 6.2 innings in his playoff debut on Saturday and allowed four runs on eight hits, walking one, hitting two batters and striking out three. He threw 111 pitches in the start.

Kennedy is in uncharted territory with 228.2 innings in 2011, but his velocity showed just a slight dip on Saturday: His average fastball clocked in at 89.6 mph, down from 90.3 for the regular season. He threw it a lot, though: 85 of his 111 pitches were either two or four seamers.

The Brewers had eight hits against Kennedy on Saturday, but five of them came from Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, and three of them went for extra bases. Fielder's seventh inning homer blew the game open and chased Kennedy from the mound. Four Brewers have faced him ten times or more:

The Game 1 lineup is back in full force today:

Corey Hart RF
Nyjer Morgan CF
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Rickie Weeks 2B
Jerry Hairston Jr 3B
Yuniesky Betancourt SS
Jonathan Lucroy C
Yovani Gallardo P

And in the bullpen:

Chris Narveson pitched 1.1 innings (31 pitches) Wednesday.
Marco Estrada pitched two innings (28 pitches) Wednesday.
Takashi Saito pitched one inning (21 pitches) Wednesday.
Kameron Loe pitched .2 innings (five pitches) Wednesday.
John Axford, LaTroy Hawkins and Francisco Rodriguez all pitched on Sunday.

The roof will be closed today, presumably to keep Milwaukee's beautiful day from interfering with the game.

Tonight, the Brewers have another chance to finish this off.

They'll get that chance against Joe Saunders (3.69 ERA, 4.78 FIP), who was originally scheduled to pitch last night but was pushed back a day with a hand injury. He's thrown a career-high 212 innings this season and posted a sub-4.00 ERA but the stats would suggest he's due for some regression: Opposing hitters are hitting .271 on balls in play against him (down from .289 career), he's striking out less than five batters per nine innings and allowing 1.2 home runs over the same span. He's pitching tonight on a week of rest: He allowed five runs on nine hits to the Dodgers over six innings on Wednesday, walking none and striking out two.

Before that last start, Saunders was on something of a hot streak: He'd averaged almost seven innings per start over his last six appearances and posted a 1.98 ERA. He throws a 90 mph fastball, a plus changeup and above-average sliders and curves. The changeup is worth +1.05 runs over 100 pitches this season, and +0.43 for his career.

Saunders is facing the Brewers for the second time this season: On July 20 he pitched seven innings and allowed two runs on five hits in what eventually became a 5-2 Brewer victory. Three Brewers have faced him ten times or more:

The Brewers' fourth starter of the postseason will be Randy Wolf (3.69 ERA, 4.29 FIP), and now that I look closer I'm realizing that most of the things I said above about Saunders are also true about him. Wolf has thrown 212.1 innings this season (his career high is 215.2, set last season) and is also getting good results despite the fact that he doesn't strike many batters out (5.7 per nine innings). He last pitched on Tuesday, September 27 and allowed four runs on nine hits over 5.2 innings against the Pirates.

This season Wolf seems to have evolved into a bit of a junkballer, but it's working for him. For the first time in his career he's throwing his upper 80's fastball less than 50% of the time, replacing it with a heavy dose of sliders and curves and some changeups. In terms of runs per 100 innings, though, the fastball remains his best pitch at +0.61.

Wolf faced Arizona twice in a two week stretch this season and had mixed results:

Seven current Diamondbacks have faced Wolf ten times or more:

Tonight's lineup features a couple of changes:

Corey Hart RF
Jerry Hairston Jr 3B
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Rickie Weeks 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt SS
Carlos Gomez CF
George Kottaras C
Randy Wolf P

Lefties hit just .212/.240/.341 against Saunders this season (compared to .281/.345/.465 for righties), so I was hoping Jonathan Lucroy would catch Wolf tonight. No such luck.

In the bullpen:

Kameron Loe pitched 1.1 innings (16 pitches) last night.
Marco Estrada pitched one inning (16 pitches) last night.
Chris Narveson pitched one inning (13 pitches) last night.
LaTroy Hawkins, John Axford, Takashi Saito and Francisco Rodriguez all pitched on Sunday.