The Arizona Fall League has given us an opportunity to get an extended look at three of the most interesting pitching prospects in the Brewer system. I'm just generalizing about their stuff here and not making any specific conclusions about their velocity based on one outing. I just wanted to give everyone a general idea of what these guys are throwing when we discuss them this offseason. 

Zach Braddock

He's a lefty who has had a lot of injury trouble in his career so far but is loaded with potential. He threw 42 innings in the minor league season, working on a schedule by throwing short outings every third day. 13.7 K/ 1.5 BB per 9 in the regular season. With that kind of ratio it's not hard to see why he's an exciting prospect. 64 strikeouts, 7 walks. In the AFL he's thrown 10 2/3 innings with 7 Ks, 4 BBs, and 1 run allowed.

I'll look at his outing on November 6th, in which he got a save, throwing a clean inning with 1 strikeout. It took 10 pitches-- 9 fastballs and a slider. His fastball average was 93.7 with a maximum of 94.6. That's impressive velocity and consistency for a guy with this kind of command of the strike zone. He also showed very good consistency in his release point for the fastball, and only dipped down a little bit on the slider. The slider was 83 and had some pretty good break of 4.5 inches towards a righty hitter. As far as I know, he also throws a changeup-- but probably hasn't needed to use it working in relief. Throwing 94 with good command is plenty for him right now. 

The Brewers will face a bit of a dilemma next year as they decide what to do with Braddock. He's probably ready to pitch in the MLB right now as a reliever, but sticking him in that role will limit his upside. If Braddock could stretch out and solidify his role as a starting pitcher down the road, we could be looking at a remarkably valuable player. There are only about 5 left-handed starters in the majors that are capable of averaging 92-93+ with the fastball, and Manny Parra is one of them. I know many people are down on Parra, but remember that Parra once was an injury-plagued lefty but had good stuff and control. He didn't make it to the majors until age 25. As exciting as it would be to have Braddock in the 2010 bullpen, the Brewers should weigh the benefits against what they could have down the road if they are patient. 

Mark Rogers

We all know the story here. He's even more of an underdog than Braddock considering he didn't even throw a pitch in a minor league game in 2007 or 2008 following 75 innings back in 2006. No one really expected anything from Rogers at this point, but the velocity is still there. In 63 innings at High-A Brevard County, he put up a K/BB ratio of 8.7: 4.7. He has really struggled in the AFL, but we can still learn plenty about his stuff. 

Rogers was roughed up in 27 pitches on November 13th, but it's the best sample of his stuff available. His average fastball was 93.6, and he hit 95.4. Rogers is continuing to work on a starter's repitoire, throwing 4 changeups, 8 sliders, and a curve along with 14 fastballs. The change averaged 84.2, a very nice complement to the fastball-- the approximate 9 mile per hour gap is close to ideal. The slider is also hard, at about 84, and seems to have tight break on it. The curve he threw came in at 78-- which qualifies as a pretty hard curve.

The stuff he has shown indicates that with health and time he easily has the upside of a high-quality major league starter. It's going to be a while, but he'll probably start next year with a cautious schedule in AA and the Brewers will have to see how things go from there.

Josh Butler

He was one of the fastest risers in the Brewers system this year, starting as a pitcher too old for high A. He had an interesting progression-- I was very skeptical of his promotion to AA because his A+ peripherals did not support his low ERA. But after being promoted to AA and then AAA, he was an entirely different pitcher: he had a K:BB ratio of about 5: 4 in high A and improved that to about 7: 2 in AA and AAA.

Butler described his stuff like this on his blog:

I am a power sink pitcher that works in the 88-92 mph range with my fastball for the most part. I also throw a curve, slider and change-up.

Looking at Butler's outing on October 22nd, when he faced Stephen Strasburg, it appears he undersold his fastball velocity a bit. 34 fastballs averaged 91.1 mph and he topped out at 93.4. And there's quite a lot of break on that fastball, 11 inches towards a righty on average is good stuff. He also seems to rely heavily on the curve and changeup, throwing 15 and 13 respectively to go with 3 sliders. The changes averaged 83.6, which is a little hard, and the curves were also power versions of that pitch, coming in around 79. The slider is pretty typical, about 84 without a whole lot of break.

Butler will probably get a decent look at a bullpen spot come spring but I think the Brewers will decide to start him at AAA to develop him as a starter. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him up as a replacement at some point in 2010, especially if he can post some solid numbers there. I'll be intersted to see if he keeps up the peripheral success he started to achieve at AA and AAA last season.

by Morry Gash - AP

Casey McGehee pictured here hitting a grand slam, was an afterthought for most of us before the season.

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Sometimes a tornado blows through and leaves everything exactly how it was. That's kind of how third base went for the Brewers this season: Nothing went exactly how we projected, but the end result was about the same.

Projections:

Bill Hall
Projected: .262/.329/.454
Actual: .201/.265/.341

Mat Gamel
Projected: .274/.334/.442
Actual: .242/.338/.422

Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408

Before the season we were pretty optimistic about Bill Hall, with six of the nine projectors giving him an OPS of .780 or above. Instead, he played his way off the team and got to the point where the Brewers ate most of his salary and traded him to Seattle for a low level pitching prospect.

Worth noting: Mat Gamel's 2009 numbers don't really tell the whole story regarding his performance: Gamel hit .274/.340/.524 in 94 plate appearances as a third baseman, and went just 8-for-44 (.182) as a DH and pinch hitter.

Playing time:

Obviously, we completely whiffed on Casey McGehee. When we made the projections, many of us expected Mike Lamb to take his place on the roster: Instead, Lamb declined an assignment to the minors at the end of spring training and didn't appear in the majors this season.

Meanwhile, Craig Counsell had a very good season for him, but the fact that he received 50% more playing time than Mat Gamel is puzzling at best.

Overall:

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Alcides Escobar, seen here leaping over Delwyn Young, also leapfrogged J.J. Hardy this season en route to cementing himself as the shortstop of the future.

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Let's continue to work our way around the diamond with a look at another very disappointing position: shortstops.

Projections:

J.J. Hardy
Projected: .281/.347/.455
Actual: .229/.302/.357

Alcides Escobar
Projected: .263/.308/.359
Actual: .304/.333/.368

Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408

If you've just now noticed that J.J. Hardy had a disappointing season, I'm sorry. Hardy underachieved our expectations by 143 OPS points. possibly the single largest gap between expectations and reality on the 2009 Brewers.

Meanwhile, the sample size is small, but Alcides Escobar exceeded our expectations in all three slash lines, and cemented his status as the Opening Day shortstop for 2010.

Speaking of small sample sizes: There's probably nothing too this, but check out Craig Counsell's splits by defensive position in 2009:

Counsell had a career year in 2009, and his numbers were good at second, great at third and incredible (in a small sample) as a pinch hitter. Yet somehow he was terrible as a shortstop. I'm not sure if that's relevant or just a small sample size quirk, but I thought I'd share it and let you decide for yourself.

Playing Time

Clearly, Hardy's underwhelming performance had something to do with him getting significantly less playing time, although his service time may also have had something to do with it. Escobar didn't play as much as many of us thought he should when Hardy was back in September, but still contributed nearly four times as often as we expected him to.

Again, when these projections were made Craig Counsell had yet to re-sign with the Crew. Many of us projected him to play anyway, but he likely would have gotten a larger share of the projection if we'd been sure he'd be back.

Overall:

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Rickie Weeks tosses his bat to one of the five other Brewers to play his position in 2009. The bat was later stolen by Prince Fielder, who used it to win the Home Run Derby, if I recall correctly.

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Ok, after a day off for The Thinker, let's jump back into this with a look at second basemen:

Take a moment to think, once again, about what happened at second base for the Brewers, and the somewhat miraculous results. Early in the season, Rickie Weeks went down for the year and the Brewers were left with turmoil at the top of the order and at second base. Six players played second at one point or another for the Brewers, yet somehow the position was one of the team's most productive.

Projections:

Rickie Weeks
Projected: .257/.362/.425
Actual: .272/.340/.517

Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408

Casey McGehee
Projected: ..279/.334/.393
Actual: .301/.360/.499

TheJay, while refusing to predict exactly who would end up playing in Weeks' place, nearly nailed a 2009 prediction for Weeks, saying: "Hey, someone has to figure he’ll both bash up his wrist again and hit about what he’s done so far in his career." Wekks was ahead of his career numbers at the time, but sure enough, a wrist injury ended his season significantly early.

Craig Counsell's playing time projection at this and the other infield positions will probably seem low, but keep in mind, Counsell wasn't actually re-signed for 2009 yet when we made these projections.

Finally, there's probably not a single player at any position we missed on more than Casey McGehee. Back in January, we collectively projected him to get roughly two and a half percent of the plate appearances at second base, and didn't project him to play third at all.

Playing time:

Wow, look at that mess. I didn't even know how to sort this table to appropriately display the chaos. And yet somehow, it worked.

At this point in January, Jason Bourgeois had just wrapped up a long hitting streak in Mexico, and if you had told me the Brewers would use six second basemen in 2009 and he wouldn't be one of them, I would have been shocked. In a world where Craig Counsell had yet to re-sign, Bourgeois projected to be Weeks' top backup. Instead, he spent most of the season patrolling the outfield in Nashville.

Overall:

More photos » by Jeff Curry - AP

Prince Fielder's 2009 numbers look even better when compared to what we expected.

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Projections:

Prince Fielder
Projected: .284/.380/.547
Actual: .299/.412/.602

Obviously, we all got significantly more than we bargained for from Fielder this season. Not only did he start all 162 games and pick every Brewer at bat at first base, he slugged over .600, a full 25 points above the most optimistic of the 13 projections, and surpassed our OBP expectations by 32 points as well.

Playing time:

I'd say this is pretty self-explanatory. While all of us expected Fielder to play close to full time, none of us expected him to take every plate appearance by a Brewer first baseman this season. Brad Nelson was off the roster early, Mike Lamb didn't even make the team out of spring training and Mike Rivera never saw time at first. Casey McGehee was the only other Brewer to play there this season: He played four innings defensively and did not bat.

Overall:

by Darren Hauck - AP

Jason Kendall is very proficient at getting hit by pitches, but that's about the only thing Brewer catchers did really well in 2009.

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Now seems like as good a time as any to start a series looking back at our expectations for 2009, who met or exceeded them, and who fell short. We'll start today with a look at catchers, to get them out of the way.

Performance:

Jason Kendall
Projected: .251/.333/.324
Actual: .241/.331/.305

Mike Rivera:
Projected: .260/.315/.406
Actual: .228/.326/.342

Surprisingly enough, we as a community were a little optimistic on Kendall, at least as optimistic as one can be while projecting a .659 OPS. While it was a narrow underperformance, Kendall underperformed our expectations in all three slash stats.

Sadly, Mike Rivera also fell short of our expectations. A year after performing exceptionally well in limited opportunities, Rivera was still used sparingly (although slightly more often), but failed to recapture 2008's magic.

Playing time:

It looks like most of us expected the Brewers to try out some other options at catcher this season. Both Kendall and Mike Rivera gained playing time over our expectations, mainly at the expense of Angel Salome, who some of us projected to play as much as 40% of the time.

Two of sixteen projectors thought Vinny Rottino would sneak in some plate appearances this season, and one reader, before Brett Lawrie's move to second base, projected perhaps the most ambitious promotion in Brewer history. Neither of those happened, of course.

We also completely failed to project the possibility that Carlos Corporan would see fill in duty this season. His one plate appearance resulted in a hit, but his overall contribution is pretty negligible.

Overall:

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Can Rickie Weeks bounce back and have a strong 2010?

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Earlier this week, ACTA Sports sent me a preview of the hitter projections from 2010's Bill James Handbook. Obviously, it's still really early, but I found some of the projections interesting, so I thought I'd pass them along to you.

Let's start with your likely leadoff hitter for the 2010 Brewers:

It's probably worth noting that even Bill James, who tends to be relatively optimistic, doesn't project Weeks to play a full season in 2009 (he has him at 114 games). Even so, these numbers are probably a little optimistic. The .259 average is a slight drop from 2009, but the .357 OBP is actually 17 points higher. Weeks was off to a hot start slugging in 2009, posting a .517 slugging percentage, but this .449 projection would be easily the second highest of his career.

Other potential second basemen:

While James has Lopez playing a full season, he projects to be less productive, losing 55 OPS points to Weeks. This line for Counsell looks fair, although the Brewers are likely in trouble if they actually need him for 342 ABs.

Follow the jump for lots more projections!

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Looking for some idle speculation on the first Brewer-free Sunday afternoon since February? Here's something to play with.

Because of Jeff's brilliant work over at Minor League Splits, we can take any Brewer above rookie ball's minor league stats and get their MLE (major league equivalent), a baseline estimate of how they would have performed in the major leagues this season.

So without further adieu, here's a look at how Brewer minor leaguers might have performed in the majors in 2009, and how it compares to the players the Brewers actually used in their place.

Catcher

Brewers used: Jason Kendall, who hit .241/.331/.305 (.636 OPS), and Mike Rivera, who hit .228/.326/.342 (.668 OPS)

This is likely the most obvious position where you can make a solid argument that one of the minor leaguers should have played over the guy the Brewers trotted out there. Kendall had a nice finish to 2009, batting .271/.370/.391 after August 7, but still only out OPS'ed the hypothetical performance of Jonathan Lucroy by two points, with Angel Salome not far behind him.

Beyond Lucroy and Salome, it's a long way down to the next level, though. Corey Kemp's 2009 performance was pretty impressive in Wisconsin, but he's easily the third best catcher in the system above rookie ball right now, and he's still a long way away.

Follow the jump for the other positions!

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