Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: The Gift Of The 2003 Tigers

Statistical Analysis

Stat Of The Night: Putting 2011 In Perspective

Tonight it's hard to do, but I think over time the pain of losing this game and this series will be less fresh and we'll be able to step back and recognize that the 2011 season was probably the second best in Brewer history.

If nothing else, here's a quick table illustrating that point:

Season Playoff Games
1982 12
2011 11
1981 5
2008 4
39 Other Seasons 0

As I wrote in tonight's recap, the way the season ended is a blemish on this team's accomplishments that will never fully heal. But that doesn't change the fact that this team was one of the most talented, exciting and entertaining units we've ever seen.

9 comments  |  2 recs | 

Stat Of The Night: The Defense Rests (Or Fails)

Zack Greinke had a rough night tonight, but the defense behind him played a huge part in it. The Brewers committed three errors while Greinke was on the mound, leading to three of Greinke's five runs being unearned. 

By allowing three unearned runs tonight, Greinke tied a Brewer postseason record:

Pitcher Season Series Game ER R Difference
Zack Greinke 2011 NLCS 5 5 2 3
Yovani Gallardo 2008 NLDS 1 3 0 3
Don Sutton 1982 WS 6 7 5 2
Doc Medich 1982 WS 6 6 4 2
Pete Vuckovich 1982 WS 3 6 4 2

If the Brewers can win at home Sunday and Monday, Greinke is almost certainly going to be the starting pitcher in Game 1 of the World Series on Wednesday. If they can't, then this is his final and best start in what has to be considered a pretty disappointing postseason performance.

All told the Brewers committed four errors tonight, coming one shy of tying an NLCS record.

3 comments  | 

Stat Of The Night: A Big Night For Randy Wolf

Randy Wolf throws a pitch during Game 4 of the National League Championship Series Thursday.

Randy Wolf called tonight's game the biggest win of his career, and he became the first Brewer not named Yovani Gallardo to record a quality start this October. 

Wolf pitched seven innings tonight, becoming just the sixth pitcher in franchise history to go that deep into a postseason game:

Pitcher 7 IP Playoff Starts Most Recent
Mike Caldwell 3 1982 WS Game 5
Pete Vuckovich 2 1982 WS Game 3
Moose Haas 1 1982 ALCS Game 4
Don Sutton 1 1982 ALCS Game 3
Yovani Gallardo 1 2011 NLDS Game 1
Randy Wolf 1 2011 NLCS Game 4

Tonight was Wolf's first career postseason win in four attempts. Hopefully he'll get a shot at another one this October.

3 comments  | 

Stat Of The Night: Mark Kotsay Is The Center Of Attention

ST LOUIS, MO - OCTOBER 12:  Mark Kotsay #25 of the Milwaukee Brewers face plants on the infield dirt as he is forced out on a double play in the top of the first inning against Nick Punto #8 of the St. Louis Cardinals during Game Three of the National League Championship Series at Busch Stadium on October 12, 2011 in St Louis, Missouri.  (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Mark Kotsay did everything he could tonight to demonstrate something his previous managers have known about him for years: He's not a major league center fielder. 

Kotsay has played in 278 regular season major league games since the start of the 2009 season, but has appeared as a center fielder in just 15 of them. Ten of those appearances (plus one more tonight) have come as a Brewer:

Season Team(s) Games as CF
2009 Red Sox/White Sox 5
2010 White Sox 0
2011 Brewers 10*

* - Eleven if you include the playoffs

Tonight was also his 19th game batting second or third in the Brewer lineup. Before this season he hadn't started a game as a #2 hitter since 2008, and had made just ten starts batting third since 2006.

Kotsay has been better the second half of this season, hitting .288/.338/.425 since the All Star break. But he's simply not capable of being the kind of player Ron Roenicke appears to think he is.

5 comments  | 

Stat Of The Night: Fielder Finds His Fourth

Prince Fielder's eighth inning home run tonight didn't have much of an impact on the outcome of this game, but it was somewhat historic: It was his third of the 2011 postseason and the fourth of his playoff career, moving him into sole possession of first place on the Brewers' all time list:

Player Postseason HR
Prince Fielder 4
Ted Simmons 3
Paul Molitor 3
Gorman Thomas 2
Ben Oglivie 2
Ryan Braun 2
Robin Yount 1
Corey Hart 1
Carlos Gomez 1
Cecil Cooper 1
Mark Brouhard 1
Yuniesky Betancourt 1
Rickie Weeks  1

At the bottom of that leaderboard, another note: With their home runs over the last two days, Yuniesky Betancourt and Rickie Weeks are the 12th and 13th Brewers ever to homer in a postseason game. Hopefully they'll add some more over the coming days.

0 comments  | 

Stat Of The Night: For Zack Greinke, Better To Be Lucky Than Good

Today was not one of Zack Greinke's better days: He allowed six runs over six innings (plus one batter in the seventh). Most days a no decision is the best outcome one could hope for in that situation, but the Brewer offense picked Greinke up with a six run fifth inning and got him the win.

Greinke's outing today was worth -.334 WPA, making it the fourth worst outing by a winning starting pitcher in MLB postseason history:

Pitcher Team Season Series Game IP H R ER BB K WPA
Warren Spahn Braves 1957 WS 4 10 11 5 5 1 2 -.427
Ed Walsh White Sox 1906 WS 5 6 5 6 1 5 5 -.373
Tom Seaver Mets 1969 NLCS 1 7 8 5 5 3 2 -.358
Zack Greinke Brewers 2011 NLCS 1 6 8 6 6 2 6 -.334
Steve Carlton Phillies 1980 WS 2 8 10 4 3 6 10 -.245

To use another measure, Greinke's Game Score today was 36. Among winning starting pitchers in MLB postseason history, that's tied for the fifth lowest, and is the worst since Oliver Perez won a game for the 2006 Mets with a 33.

1 comment  | 

Stat Of The Night: Nyjer Morgan And Postseason Moments

It's a little bit hard to believe, but Nyjer Morgan's +.374 WPA tonight actually wasn't the best postseason performance by a position player in Brewer history. Here's the new top five:

Player Season Series Game WPA
Ted Simmons 1981 ALDS 3 +.416
Nyjer Morgan 2011 NLDS 5 +.374
Cecil Cooper 1982 ALCS 5 +.323
Paul Molitor 1981 ALDS 3 +.319
Robin Yount 1982 WS 5 +.303

Simmons' performance is one we don't frequently talk about, but it was really pretty incredible. With the Brewers facing elimination against the Yankees, Simmons hit a two run homer in the seventh inning to give the Crew a 2-1 lead. The Brewers blew that lead in the bottom of the inning, so they had to come back again in the top of the eighth. Simmons' double in that inning gave them a two run lead they would not relinquish.

Cooper's big game, of course, needs no introduction. In a game that will likely be compared to tonight's for years to come, Cooper hit a bases loaded single in the seventh inning to drive home the game tying and eventual winning run.

11 comments  |  1 recs | 

Stat Of The Night: Is Ryan Braun The Best Postseason Brewer?

Following tonight's loss the Brewers are 3-5 in playoff games during Ryan Braun's career. It's hard to blame him for the team's results, though, as he's gone 12-for-31 and posted a .387/.406/.625 line. He hit a single and drew a walk tonight to earn game MVP status with a +.132 WPA.

Braun doesn't have the signature, series clinching moment yet, but career WPA numbers make a strong case for him as the best postseason position player in franchise history:

Player Games WPA
Ryan Braun 8 +.397
Cecil Cooper 17 +.374
Paul Molitor 17 +.196
Robin Yount 17 +.184
Charlie Moore 16 +.144

Meanwhile, Randy Wolf is also in rare company: His -.479 WPA performance tonight replaced Mike Caldwell's disaster start in Game 1 of the 1982 ALCS as the worst ever by a Brewer. Shaun Marcum's performance Tuesday night is now the sixth worst.

Hopefully, these last two nights are games we'll eventually talk about as bumps in the road en route to something greater.

2 comments  | 


User Tools

Brew Crew Ball is dedicated to providing a friendly atmosphere for intelligent Brewer conversation. Click here to view our Posting Guide and Community Guidelines.

NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
Chicago 0 0 .000 0 Lost 0
Cincinnati 0 0 .000 0 Lost 0
Houston 0 0 .000 0 Lost 0
Milwaukee 0 0 .000 0 Lost 0
Pittsburgh 0 0 .000 0 Lost 0
St. Louis 0 0 .000 0 Lost 0

(updated 2.14.2012 at 1:02 AM CST)


Moderators

Newavatar_small Kyle Lobner

146_-_street_map_plaza_from_pop_tower_with_bars-tiltshift_small TheJay

Communist_party_small Jordan M

X1pxoywqu4sjf73f7drxq2lmqys7mzsyx7pa9necepiffk_ewcuwmuazb-o17ukmbriclcdkn4lk-4xposaawiq4j8hzdsccpjwatqpz2o2p-i0nnqjlyt7pmytaycsaknszvaktpshtcu9sjle1qchlw_1__small NoahJ

Hikaru_50_small morineko

Picture_069_small Nicole Haase

Gogol_bordello_small BrewHaHeather

Anon-md_small Rubie Q