More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

This is what I'm talking about, baby. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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We've got Carlos Gomez now.  I haven't looked really closely at his numbers, but my first take is that it's a fair deal.  The Twins get a somewhat better player for 2010 in J.J. Hardy, but we get someone who is cheaper, fills a hole, and might improve while still under team control.

But...reasonable people can disagree, and evaluating the Hardy-Gomez deal isn't my point.  [Jordan just published some interesting thoughts on the deal.  Even though I've rudely buried his post, go read what he has to say.]

Instead, I'd like to suggest that, against the sudden, unanimous conventional wisdom, we still re-sign Mike Cameron.  (I haven't read through all the comment threads yet, so I apologize if I'm repeating somebody else's idea.)

Here are some things to consider:

1. Cameron is undervalued.  (Yes, I know I'm opening up another can of worms here.)  He's an elite defender, he has aged well, and he may be willing to come back to Milwaukee at a discount.  If we can sign him for less than or equal to what we paid last year, we've got a deal.  A much better deal than we'd get spending an equivalent amount on pitching.

2. Cameron or Gomez can play right field.  The Mariners have shown the value of having elite defenders in more than one outfield spot.  Cameron has played corners in his career.  Center field prowess translates pretty reliably to corner outfield prowess.  For those of you with a statistical bent: The positional adjustment would change, but a +10 CF would probably be +15 or so in right, so it would come close to evening out.

3. Outfield defense is important.  Suppan is a fly ball pitcher.  Looper is a fly ball pitcher.  (Though most of his fly balls are out of reach.)  If we sign Washburn, there's another one.  If we're shopping for mid-rotation guys, fly ball pitchers aren't necessarily bad--IF we have an elite defensive outfield.  It would make Doug Melvin's job easier, actually: Ground ball pitchers are generally more valuable than fly ball pitchers since teams stick Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez in the outfield.  (And other reasons, but I don't want to digress.)  So having the freedom to sign fly ball guys would give Doug some flexibility.

4. Corey Hart is getting expensive, and he is not necessarily very good.  Unlike with Hardy, I don't have a ton of faith Corey Hart being a valuable part of a contender.  Yet, his name reliably comes up in trade rumors.  Maybe Hart + Gamel will get us that starting pitcher.  It's tough to gauge this from the outside, but I get the impression that we could receive fair value in a Hart trade.

5. Worst case scenario, we've added Gomez as a fourth OF.  Maybe we can't trade Hart, but payroll hasn't really gone up.  Then, depending on how the season goes, we can flip Cameron or (more probably) Hart to a team that develops a need.  The outfield would be crowded, and it would prevent a Gamel move to right field, but too much talent isn't a bad thing, and I don't get the impression Gamel is shagging fly balls this offseason anyway.

Like most of my offseason proposals, I don't think this is what Doug is going to do.  But I think it's what he should do.

More photos » by Steven Senne - AP

14 days ago: FILE - In this Feb. 23, 2009, file photo, Minnesota Twins' Carlos Gomez poses for a photograph. The Milwaukee Brewers traded J.J. Hardy to the Twins on Friday, Nov. 6, 2009, for outfielder Gomez. (AP Photo/Steven Senne,file)

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• I like the acquisition of Gomez, before we start putting any context on this trade. He's a ridiculously good defender, one of the best centerfielders in the game due to his tremendous speed and range. Being an elite defender gives him plenty of value before even looking at his offensive contributions. There's a tendency to group together "good centerfielders"-- but there's a big difference between the tier of guys like Tony Gwynn Jr., Juan Pierre, and Jody Gerut, and truly elite defenders like Gomez.
• Gomez, right now, is not a good offensive player. He's been basically a replacement-level hitter in his time in the big leagues so far. That does not mean he's been a replacement level player, though, because his stellar defense has made him worth between about 1 and 2 wins in his two full seasons. He has a career .286 wOBA, and the league average is around .333-- and wOBA includes stolen base contributions. His career slash line is .246/.292/.346.
  
• There's reason to believe that Gomez has a much bigger offensive upside. He was a very highly regarded prospect in his day, and a major piece in the Johan Santana deal. In A-ball as a 19 year-old, he .275/.335/.380; then he came in with a .281/.350/.423 line at AA at age 20. He was bumped to the majors by the Mets at age 21 after hitting .271/.353/.361 in AAA. He's been in the majors since then, with that completed year and two more with the Twins, and hasn't cracked a .300 OBP. Just based on his profile, it has to be possible that there's an upside of even a .320-.330 OBP and .350 SLG this year, which would go a long way towards making Gomez a much more valuable player. He'd practically be an all-star if he was a league average hitter, but that's probably too much to ask for at this point. He'll be here for four years, though, so there's still hope.  
  
• Gomez is a lot of fun to watch. I usually don't get caught up in that type of stuff, but I always found it amusing to see him take a monster hack at a pitch and almost corkscrew himself into the ground, and then bunt on the next pitch. And his energy on the basepaths and ability in center will keep us entertained.
  
• In terms of total value, this deal is pretty close to an even match. The expected value of Hardy's production over his salary in the next two years is very close to the amount of expected value of Gomez's production over his salary in the next four years. That's a strategy for a team that doesn't expect to be in contention for the next two years, however, so it doesn't quite make sense to me why the Brewers chose to do this type of deal. I'm just going to go ahead and quote Graham from Lookout Landing, who was disappointed that the Mariners didn't beat the Twins asking price for Hardy: In terms of money/talent, the deal makes a good amount of sense for both sides. The Twins get a big upgrade at shortstop, the Brewers deal from depth to cover a weak position (albeit not that well) for free, and have some more money to play with in free agency. As the return for a guy like Hardy, Gomez the talent is rather underwhelming, but the financial flexibility he provides is useful. Could/should the Brewers have gotten more for him? Yes. But they didn't, which is where this deal becomes weird from the Milwaukee side. They had an asset which had less value to them than to the rest of the league, but they sold him for his value to them rather than anyone else's, which is not the best trading strategy in the world.    
• The Brewers did everything wrong in their handling of Hardy. The last line from Graham pretty much sums up what I think-- they sold Hardy at the value to them rather than his actual value. The whole situation has been bizarre-- sending him to AAA and promoting Escobar to shake things up when there was no real reason for doing so expect gaining a year of service time that apparently increased his value to... Carlos Gomez. Yes, Hardy had a bad year. Projecting him with a weight of 3/2/1 for the last three seasons still gives a 2-3 win player with 5 win upside easily. Even at his worst, last season, he was better than Gomez was last year. And maybe the strangest part of this deal was the huge rush. It happened two days after the World Series, and Doug Melvin admitted he didn't even call a team with a shortstop shortage, the Tigers, much less the rest of the league. Not only did he sell Hardy at the absolute lowest point of his value, but he managed to pull the trigger so quickly there's no telling what might have happened had he held on longer. I doubt the Twins would have pulled their Gomez offer from the table.
  
• Melvin didn't even touch the pitching staff with his biggest trading chip, and downgraded the offense. Sure, the extra savings from Hardy to Escobar and Cameron to Gomez give the Brewers some money to throw at a free agent pitcher. But that's not the logical way to look at it. Say the Brewers had accepted the apparent Red Sox offer of Michael Bowden for Hardy. Bowden, at the mininum, makes even less than Gomez next year, and Hardy's salary is gone either way. In this situation, with even a little bit more money to play with, they could re-sign Cameron to play center for maybe 1 year, $8-10 million because they don't have to worry about another pitcher-- or they could sign a righty centerfielder like Reed Johnson to platoon with Jody Gerut, a platoon which would project about the same as the Gomez and Gerut situation going on right now, in 2010 at least. Gomez is a better bet for the following three years, but remember that Lorenzo Cain and Logan Schafer are coming and might have been able to fill in the gap by 2011. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Would we rather be looking at a rotation of Gallardo, Parra, Bowden, Bush, Suppan with Cam in center and an extra $5 mil, or that same rotation with Gerut/platoonmate in center and $15 million to throw at Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, or Justin Duchscherer? Again, it's such a strange idea to throw your most valuable trading chip at a really slight position player upgrade for 2010. It just looks like he's playing for down the road. If salary relief is one of the good parts of the trade... well, non-tendering J.J. would have gotten salary relief too. Getting Bowden would have accomplished the same thing. I don't know why we have to consider this a positive in the trade.
  
• I really like the idea of getting Gomez here. He's a nice piece to have. Not for the price of Hardy, though. And I don't understand the way Doug Melvin handled this situation overall. He could have done so much better. I'll wait to judge his offseason until we see if the available money is handled the right way. One thing I will say now-- I hope the moves will be with a consistent goal in mind. Spending the money on starters like Washburn, Piniero, and Marquis would probably not upgrade the team enough to justify the spending and commitment, which is why I suggest 1 year deals for injury-prone pitchers. And if they do decide to target a pitcher, I hope Casey McGehee is more likely to be traded than Mat Gamel. Acquiring Gomez and dealing Gamel would probably indicate a confused set of goals about when the team's window of contention is.      
  

More photos » by AARON J. LATHAM - AP

Chris Narveson has pitched much better lately. Is that enough to justify keeping him around for 2010?

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It's been an interesting 2009 for Chris Narveson. After starting the season in Nashville, his tenth minor league team in his tenth minor league season, Narveson earned a call up to the big leagues for just the second time on June 13. He had a rough outing against the Indians two days later, allowing three earned runs on three hits and three walks in 1.2 innings, and followed it up by allowing three more runs in 2.2 innings to the Tigers four days later. All told, Narveson racked up an 8.44 ERA in his first nine outings as a Brewer, and was designated for assignment on July 8. He went unclaimed and would later be outrighted to Nashville.

Since then, though, things have gone pretty well for him. He pitched out of the bullpen upon his return to Nashville, and on August 22 the Brewers put him back on the 40 man roster and, amid much groaning around here, recalled him to the big leagues. Needless to say, our expectations were low, but he's pitched pretty well since returning, posting a 2.20 ERA in 16.1 innings, and yesterday he made his first major league start since 2006, pitching 3+ innings on three days' rest and holding the D-Backs scoreless for three innings before allowing hits to three consecutive batters in the fourth and getting pulled.

Narveson has been primarily a starter throughout his minor league career, and had appeared in relief just eight times in the five seasons prior to 2009. He'll turn 28 in December, and as a player with less than a full season of service time, would be available to the Brewers for the league minimum in 2010 and 2011, should they decide to keep him on the roster. Should they? Let me know your thoughts in the poll below.

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

The Brewers reacquired Claudio Vargas from the Dodgers, in exchange for minor league catcher Vinny Rottino on Friday.

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It looks like the biggest news of the day is the acquisition of Claudio Vargas, and I'm sure that's plenty underwhelming to most. Vargas is a good bet to outproduce replacement-level pitchers like Mike Burns in the rotation, and the cost was just a minor-league utility player in Vinny Rottino-- who has little value to the Brewer organization right now (maybe he'll resurface as a coach in a few seasons, who knows). 

It's been a frustrating few months to watch ineffective starting pitching, but I think Doug Melvin made the right choice here to not go out and buy a rental for the rest of this season. He investigated adding a pitcher who could be around for 2010, but it appears that was not exactly feasible. Without a deal for a stud pitcher like Cliff Lee or Halladay, Melvin made an offer for Brian Bannister of the Royals and was probably in extensive discussions for other pitchers. Things apparently just didn't work out.

In all it's probably not a bad strategy. Struggling at 3.5 games out right now, there's a chance the Brewers rally and make the playoffs but a 1 win upgrade for the rest of the season wasn't worth losing one of the nearly MLB-ready prospects. The options were probably to go for it all-out, stand pat, or get someone who isn't just a rental-- and I'm glad they didn't burn a valuable piece on a moderate upgrade like Washburn.

So where do we stand now? A pretty much straight-up average team looking to get hot and back into the playoff race. It's not out of the question to see a .500 team catch some breaks and win more games than should be expected. And there's still a chance to add another starter in August through the waiver deadline.

And at worst, the Brewers totally fall out of contention and start experimenting for next season. Gamel and Escobar will be ready to fill full-time major league roles at the start of next season, and the only major free-agents are Hoffman, Cameron, Kendall, and Looper. This team will have a ton of valuable trading chips in the offseason and will probably be able to acquire a starting pitcher to make this team a very realistic contender. Beyond those top two prospects, the catching duo of Salome and Lucroy, as well as Green and Cain, will play a role in the 2010 season-- maybe as major league contributors, and maybe as trade pieces. 

So though it's disappointing as a fan when the answer to "Buy or sell?" is "Neither!", it's hard for me to complain. My main hope is that Vargas and pitchers like Burns don't end up blocking someone like Nick Green, a righty starter at AAA who is recovering from an injury but has put up his usual 6:2 strikeout to walk rate at AAA while getting a pretty healthy amount of ground balls. Guys like Green, Chris Cody, and Chase Wright should get chances to pitch in the majors until Suppan and Bush are able to pitch again.

So to wrap up, Vargas is a pretty solid stopgap. He's not going to give you many innings, but he has solid skills, strikes out quite a few batters, and doesn't walk all that many despite his tendency to nibble at the strike zone. Whether he's used as a reliever or starter, he's a free major league arm with a track record of a little success, and he was obtained for free. And maybe there is a chance he becomes more effective, he's always had good stuff, featuring a low 90s fastball, a quailty slider and a decent change. He's not the guy we were looking for or the guy Doug Melvin was looking for, but he's a decent arm for free, so it's hard to complain.

My favorite part of February and March is watching the Triple-A vets and near-retirees find minor league contracts.

But not every minor league contract is created equal...the Brewers have brought back Russell Branyan!

Like many players from the Brewers teams of a few years ago, he probably doesn't have what it takes to make the roster, but even if we only get a couple weeks of him whiffing and hitting a couple of light-tower shots to mix things up, I'll take it.

For those of you who are confused by my headline, Branyan's nickname in certain crowds is "TTO," which stands for Three True Outcomes.  The three true outcomes are strikeouts, walks, and home runs--that is, the events that don't involve fielders at all.  Adam Dunn is a more prominent TTO guy, and Gorman Thomas is a good example from Brewers history, but Russell will always be first in our hearts.

Update [2008-2-21 17:7:38 by Jeff]: Tomo Ohka's signed, too...but thankfully not by us.

I wonder if, at any point other than the time that Kevin Mench came to Milwaukee in the Carlos Lee deal, he actually had trade value.  Sure, he was always in trade rumors, for years before he came to Milwaukee, and more or less continuously after he arrived.

But now that he has hit the open market (granted, not at the peak of his career, or at least the peak of what he's done so far), we know what teams really think of him.

He signed with the Rangers (it's a Doug Melvin round trip!) on a minor league deal.

A minor league deal!  That means he'll be competing with Nelson Cruz (remember him?) for a bench job.  

Now that Podsednik and Mench are off the market and it looks like Damian Miller is headed for retirement, there aren't many veteran Brewers to keep an eye on.  I suppose someone could sign Tony Graffanino to a minor league deal and supervise his rehab, but...well...I'd rather count down the seconds to pitchers and catchers reporting that go on full-time Graffy watch.

I liked Scott Podsednik for a while, but no amount of nostalgia can cover up for his degree of inability.  He's not good enough to cover center field in the majors anymore, he never had any power, and now he's fragile, too.  Getting older and getting injured isn't helping his speed, either.

So, now, he's little more than a minor league spring training flyer, this year with the Rockies.  Maybe he's still useful as a backup outfielder, but I'm glad it's somebody else finding out, not the contending 2008 Brewers.

He's a National, anyway.

If you wondered just how far Johnny's stock has fallen, he's now Paul LoDuca insurance in Washington for a grand total of $1.25 million.

I suppose that Estrada hunted for the best shot at playing time, and with LoDuca recovering from injury, the Nationals gave him that.  But despite all of our dislike for Estrada and the fact that players generally don't sign cheaper deals with the teams that non-tender them, I have to think that Estrada would be worth $1MM more than, say, Eric Munson.  Especially if he could get that OBP back over .300.