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Around SBN: Bracketology 2012: Duke Finally Steps Up To The No. 1 Line

WPA Game Recaps

Cardinals 12, Brewers 6: Tonight's Turning Points

Not the way any of us wanted to end this run, clearly.

1) David Freese's first inning home run: -.218 WPA (Video)

Freese was the sixth batter to come to the plate in the first inning against Shaun Marcum, and his home run to left drove the game's second, third and fourth runs home.

2) Jonathan Lucroy's second inning home run: +.167 WPA (Video)

The Brewers were down 4-0 when they came to bat for the first time, but in two innings they almost came all the way back. The final blow in the second inning was Jonathan Lucroy's two run shot to left center to trim the Cardinals' lead to 5-4.

3) Lance Berkman's first inning single: -.140 WPA (Video)

The Cardinals first run scored on the game's fourth batter, as Lance Berkman singled to center and advanced to second on the throw to the plate. The single left the Cardinals with two men on and one out in the frame.

4) Albert Pujols' third inning home run: -.103 WPA (Video)

The Brewers had fought back and reduced the Cardinals' lead to one run at 5-4 but gave the runs back in a hurry. This Pujols home run improved the St. Louis lead to two at 6-4.

5) Allen Craig's third inning single: +.097 WPA (Video)

The third inning meltdown concluded with this hit, as Craig singled off LaTroy Hawkins and drove in two runs to expand the Cardinal lead to 9-4.

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And Suddenly, It Was Over: Brewers Lose 12-6 To Cardinals, Eliminated From NLCS

W: Mark Rzepczynski (1-0)
L: Shaun Marcum (0-3)

HR: Corey Hart (1), Rickie Weeks (2), Jonathan Lucroy (1), David Freese (3), Rafael Furcal (1), Albert Pujols (2)

MVP: Jonathan Lucroy (+.135)
LVP: Shaun Marcum (-.315)

Win Expectancy Graph and Star of the Game Voting

About a week ago, a friend posted this on Facebook:

Spotted a big purple van cruising around West Des Moines, colorfully decorated clearly in homage to Scooby Doo and the Gang's Mystery Machine. While I applaud the time and effort put forth to painstakingly recreate such an iconic vehicle from classic television, my eye wandered to the side of the van, where in big, bold black paint print, it said, "Mistry Machine" That's right. MISTRY.

Tonight, I feel like that's a fair analogy for the 2011 Brewers. After spending months constructing a record-breaking, at times awe-inspiring thrill ride, the Brewers were given an opportunity this week to put on the finishing touches and misspelled their own name instead. It's hard to treat the 2011 season as anything but a massive success, but that doesn't make its sudden and underwhelming conclusion any less disappointing.

If you had told me the Brewer offense would score six runs tonight, I would've told you I thought they had a pretty good chance at winning. But if you had told me that Shaun Marcum would allow four runs in the first and Chris Narveson would surrender five more in the second and third, then I probably would have predicted an outcome like this.

The Brewers hit three home runs in the game, but also allowed three. Jerry Hairston Jr. was the only Brewer with multiple hits in the game, going 2-for-3 with a double. Ryan Braun went 0-for-4, so he'll finish the postseason tied for the Brewer single season record with 22 hits.

There's a strong chance that we saw several final Brewer moments tonight:

  • Prince Fielder went 0-for-4 with three groundouts and a fly out in what will almost certainly be his final game before becoming a free agent.
  • LaTroy Hawkins, who will be a free agent this winter, recorded the final out in the third inning and pitched the fourth, allowing one hit and nothing else.
  • Takashi Saito, also on track to become a free agent if he doesn't retire, pitched two scoreless innings in relief. It was his longest outing since August of 2009.
  • Craig Counsell grounded out in a pinch hit appearance in the bottom of the seventh.
  • Francisco Rodriguez pitched the eighth, allowing a run on two hits.

And, given the way things have gone this week, I can't think of a more fitting ending than this: Mark Kotsay struck out on three pitches to record the season's final out.

So, with that, a 96 win season, the first to include a Brewer postseason series win since 1982, draws to a close. The World Series will open in St. Louis on Wednesday. 

We'll have postgame comments and more in a bit.

538 comments  | 

Cardinals 7, Brewers 1: Tonight's Turning Points

Tonight they're stomach-turning points.

1) Jaime Garcia reaches on Jerry Hairston's second inning error: -.148 WPA (Video)

The Brewers were one out away from getting out of a tough inning and had the pitcher at the plate but Jerry Hairston Jr, who had just made an excellent defensive play one batter earlier, let a ground ball go through his legs. Two runs scores to give the Cardinals a 3-0 lead.

2) Yadier Molina's second inning double: -.147 WPA

Two batters before the play listed above, the Cardinals had runners on first and second with one out when Molina doubled over Corey Hart's head in right, scoring Lance Berkman and leaving two men in scoring position.

3) Nick Punto's second inning line out: +.068 WPA

In between events #1 and 2, Jerry Hairston Jr made a great defensive play to rob Punto of a single and likely RBIs. 

4) Jerry Hairston Jr's third inning strikeout: -.061 WPA

The Brewers had runners on first and third with one out in the third after Zack Greinke and Corey Hart singled, but Hairston struck out swinging and Ryan Braun popped out to end the inning.

5) Corey Hart's third inning single: +.059

One batter before Hairston's strikeout, Hart was the second half of back-to-back singles to put two men on with one out in the inning. Neither scored.

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Bad Defense, Offense, Pitching Doom Brewers In 7-1 Loss To Cardinals, Who Now Lead NLCS 3-2

W: Octavio Dotel (2-0)
L: Zack Greinke (1-1)

HR: None

MVP: Corey Hart (+.107)
LVP: Zack Greinke (-.240)

Win Expectancy Graph and Star of the Game Voting

Well, that was awful.

Here's a complete list of things the Brewers did well tonight:

  • Ryan Braun doubled in the first inning, extending his record postseason streak to nine straight games reaching base safely in the opening frame.

Yeah, I think that's about it.

Zack Greinke wasn't awful tonight, but he still allowed five runs (two earned) on seven hits and failed to complete the sixth inning. He was strongly hindered by three Brewer errors and a couple of other plays that should have been made. Really, poor defense was the game's biggest story: Jerry Hairston Jr., Yuniesky Betancourt, Rickie Weeks and Marco Estrada all made errors, in addition to a key early missed fly ball by Corey Hart.

Hart led the Brewers with three hits tonight, and his single in the fifth inning drove in the Brewers' only run. Jonathan Lucroy, who scored the run, was the only other multi-hit Brewer.

On the bright side, the season won't end tomorrow. But the Brewers will face elimination when this series resumes on Sunday, and it'll become even more likely if Ron Roenicke sticks with his plan to start Shaun Marcum.

255 comments  | 

Brewers 4, Cardinals 2: Tonight's Turning Points

Tonight's game might be a turning point in the series, and these are the turning points within that turning point. How very meta.

1) Yuniesky Betancourt's fourth inning single: +.130 WPA (Video)

The Brewers scored two runs in the fourth, and this drove home the second one: Yuniesky Betancourt's single plated Jerry Hairston Jr to tie the game.

2) Matt Holliday's second inning solo home run: -.114 WPA (Video)

Randy Wolf escaped the first inning, his usual trouble spot, but wasn't as lucky in the second: Matt Holliday had a perfectly placed fly ball down the right field line that the wind kept fair and pushed out of the park.

3) Jerry Hairston Jr's fourth inning double: +.114 WPA (Video)

The Brewers were down 2-0 heading into the top of the fourth, but rallied to tie the game. The first run scored on this hit, Hairston's double to left that drove home Prince Fielder.

4) Jerry Hairston Jr's sixth inning double: +.108 WPA

The Brewers led off the sixth inning with back-to-back hits and this was the second one, a double to left that gave the Brewers runners on second and third with no outs. Two batters later, Rickie Weeks scored on a Ryan Theriot error.

5) Allen Craig's third inning home run: -.104 WPA (Video)

This was the last run Brewer pitchers allowed on the day, as Craig hit a fly ball into the jet stream and it carried out to right center.

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Brewers Even NLCS Behind Strong Performance From Wolf, Beat Cardinals 4-2

Welcome back, Beast Mode.

W: Randy Wolf (1-1)
L: Kyle Lohse (0-2)
S: John Axford (3)

HR: Matt Holliday (1), Allen Craig (1)

MVP: Jerry Hairston Jr and Randy Wolf (+.194 WPA each)
LVP: Mark Kotsay (-.097 WPA)

Win Expectancy Graph and Star of the Game Voting

This game was a textbook example of a bounce-back performance.

Randy Wolf, who struggled mightily against Arizona in the NLDS, was excellent tonight. He allowed two runs on a pair of solo home runs among six hits over seven innings, walking just one and striking out six. On a night when the wind was blowing out to right at Busch, he did a great job of working out of trouble and putting the offense in a position to secure the victory.

Meanwhile, the Brewer offense had just enough tonight to get the job done. They scored a pair of runs in the fourth on Jerry Hairston's double and Yuniesky Betancourt's single, one more in the fifth on a Ryan Braun double, and a final tally in the sixth when a Ryan Theriot error allowed Rickie Weeks to score. Jerry Hairston Jr, Ryan Braun and Nyjer Morgan each had two hits, while George Kottaras and Mark Kotsay were the only Brewer starters held hitless

Tonight's win ensures the series will return to Miller Park on Sunday for Game 6. It's now a best of three for the pennant.

324 comments  | 

Brewers Can't Quite Overcome Mistakes, Lose 4-3 To Cardinals To Fall Behind 2-1 In NLCS

Mark Kotsay can't make a play on a double hit by Jon Jay in the bottom of the first inning Wednesday.

W: Chris Carpenter (2-0)
L: Yovani Gallardo (1-1)
S: Jason Motte (3)

HR: Mark Kotsay (1)

MVP: Mark Kotsay (+.144)
LVP: Prince Fielder (-.196)

Win Expectancy Graph and Star of the Game Voting

Many of us spent several hours before tonight's game decrying the decision to start Mark Kotsay in center field tonight. He only took one inning to do everything we were worried about.

His night got off to a good start, as he walked in the first. Then he was picked off second when he wandered too far off second base on a fly ball. And in the bottom half of the inning he demonstrated that he's not a major league center fielder: Two balls that Carlos Gomez or Nyjer Morgan would likely catch fell in as the Cardinals plated four runs.

The Brewers scored two in the top of the second and another in the third (on Kotsay's home run) to make it close, but neither team scored again after that. Milwaukee chased Chris Carpenter from the game after five innings, but the Cardinal bullpen retired twelve Brewers in a row to end the game.

Yovani Gallardo was in big trouble after the first, but recovered to give the Brewers five innings. He allowed the four runs on eight hits and four walks, striking out just two. 

Chris Narveson pitched the eighth inning tonight, meaning he's unlikely at best to make the start if the Brewers force a Game 6.

390 comments  | 

Cardinals 12, Brewers 3: Tonight's Turning Points

Let's get these highlights over with, then wash our hands and move on.

1) Albert Pujols' first inning home run: -.174 WPA (Video)

This one was over early, and it took a big step in that direction when Albert Pujols homered off Shaun Marcum in his first at bat.

2) Albert Pujols' third inning double: -.127 WPA (Video)

Pujols drove in two more runs with this shot to center, giving the Cards a 4-0 lead.

3) Rickie Weeks' fifth inning double play: -.096 WPA (Video)

The Brewers had something going in the fifth, but Rickie Weeks grounded into a double play with the bases loaded to end the threat. Watch the replay to see for yourself if he should have been called safe at first.

4) Rickie Weeks' fourth inning home run: +.085 WPA (Video)

Rickie Weeks put the Brewers on the board in the fourth inning, hitting a long home run to left to bring the Brewers back within three and 5-2.

5) Jonathan Lucroy's second inning fly out: -.050 WPA  

With one out in the second Jerry Hairston Jr and Yuniesky Betancourt hit back-to-back singles to put two on for Jonathan Lucroy. He was unable to advance them, however, flying out to right field.

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NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
Chicago 0 0 .000 0 Lost 0
Cincinnati 0 0 .000 0 Lost 0
Houston 0 0 .000 0 Lost 0
Milwaukee 0 0 .000 0 Lost 0
Pittsburgh 0 0 .000 0 Lost 0
St. Louis 0 0 .000 0 Lost 0

(updated 2.14.2012 at 1:02 AM CST)


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