Today In Brewer History: Take A Walk, Cecil
On this day in 1991 the Brewers and Tigers played a Monday afternoon marathon at old County Stadium. The Tigers scored four in the top of the sixth to take a 6-1 lead, but the Brewers matched them with four in the bottom half to bring it back to 6-5, then scored three in the bottom of the eighth to tie the game at eight and send it to extra innings.
The score was still 8-8 heading into the 14th inning, but the Tigers exploded for seven runs in the top of that frame to coast to a 15-9 win. Cecil Fielder drew a walk in that inning, becoming the first Brewer opponent ever to receive five free passes in a game.
Despite the outcome, pitching around Fielder may have been the right decision. He had led all of baseball with 51 home runs and a .592 slugging percentage the year before and would go on to lead MLB with 44 homers again in '91. He made his second of three All Star appearances that season, and won his second of two Silver Slugger awards.
With help from the B-Ref Play Index, happy birthday today to:
- 1992-98 Brewer John Jaha, who turns 46. We covered his birthday in this space last year.
- 1991-92 Brewer Ed Nunez, who turns 49.
- 1986-87 Brewer Mark Clear, who turns 56.
Stat of the Night: A Home Run Against Zack Greinke
In the bottom of the third inning, John McDonald hit a three run home run against Zack Greinke that gave the Diamondbacks a 7-5 lead. Greinke had an awful outing, and this home run only serves to prove that.
You see, Zack Greinke had only given up one home run all season before this game. That came on April 23, in the first inning against the Houston Astros. Greinke had made six starts and went 41 innings without giving up a home run since that first home run. Prior to 2012, Greinke averaged one home run every 9.76 innings. To go 41 innings without a home run is an impressive feat for him.
You might recall that last season much of Greinke's struggles, when he struggled, seemed to center around getting hit hard and giving up an untimely home run. That's exactly what happened tonight. Ten hits in 2.1 innings, with the three run home run giving up the lead.
That's not to say Greinke is prone to giving up home runs. He had a 1.00 HR/9 rate in 2011, his highest since his second full season in the majors in 2005. Greinke has been good about not allowing home runs in his career. In his brief time with the Brewers, it seems like he has a penchant to allow them at bad times, however.
Greinke lowering his HR/9 even further, as he has in 2012, is a great sign, though. His lowest HR/9 of his career was a 0.43. That came in 2009. I think we are all familiar with Zack Greinke's 2009 at this point. Avoiding allowing home runs is always a good thing, but for Greinke it may be the difference between good and great.
Brewers 5, DBacks 8: Turning Points
1) Josh McDonald homers in the third inning (-.232 WPA).
The straw that broke the Greinke's back as these were the final runs the Diamondbacks would score off the Brewers starter. This was a three run shot that gave Arizona a 7-5 lead.
2) Cody Ransom doubles in the third inning (.130 WPA).
Ransom drove in two runs and gave Milwaukee a 3-1 lead with this double. It came against his former team, though the rest of his night at the plate was pretty poor.
3) Jason Kubel's RBI single in the first inning (-.114 WPA).
After the Brewers took an early lead, Justin Upton singled in a run to tie the game. Kubel immediately proceeded that with an RBI single of his own that gave Arizona a 2-1 lead.
4) Ryan Roberts' bases loaded walk in the third inning (-.105 WPA).
Zack Greinke doesn't walk many hitters. The fact that he walked Roberts with the bases concerns me slightly. However, this just didn't seem to be Greinke's day. This walk further proves that.
5) Norichiki Aoki triples to lead off the third inning (.103 WPA).
Basic game theory says that the lead off man in an inning reaching base gives a team a very good chance to score that inning. The lead off man tripling makes those odds even better. And, wouldn't you know it, Aoki did score, serving as the catalyst to a big third inning.
Brewers 5, Diamondbacks 8: Bizarro Pitching Night
Win: Zack Greinke (5-2)
Loss: Wade Miley (6-1)
Save: JJ Putz (10)
HR: McDonald (2)
MVP: Mike McClendon (.152 WPA)
LVP: Zack Greinke (-.716 WPA)
Fangraphs Win Expectancy Graph
Zack Greinke came into this game with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.76 FIP. He left after 2.1 innings, ten hits, and seven earned runs.
Wade Miley came into this game with a 2.14 ERA and 3.28 FIP. He made it six innings, but allowed five runs, three of which were earned.
Both starting pitchers had been great, both were fairly terrible today. For Greinke, it was part luck, part just plain old getting hit hard. Everything the Diamondbacks made contact on seemed to fall for a hit, especially against Greinke. Whether they were finding holes or whether they were texas leaguers, Arizona pinned 10 hits on Greinke in a very short period of time. They also earned some three walks off of him, too. That includes a bases loaded walk that brought in a run. It just wasn't Greinke's night tonight, no matter how you looked at it.
The Brewers were able to do some damage early, with Jonathan Lucroy singling in Corey Hart, who led off the game with a double. They also put a four spot on the board in the third inning. Norichiki Aoki tripled, then scored on a Ryan Braun groundout. Following a Lucroy double and Rickie Weeks walk, new Brewer and former Diamondback doubled to bring in both men. Finally, a throwing error brought in Ransom to score.
The top of the third inning gave Milwaukee a nice 5-2 lead. Then Greinke blew up and allowed five runs to score in the bottom of the third. Freshly called up Mike McClendon did damage control and allowed just three hits in 2.2 innings, but the game was already out of hand. The Brewers failed to pick up a hit in the last four innings and went down with nary a whimper.
Cody Ransom had an interesting day. He provided that two-run double, but also struck out three times. Jonathan Lucroy and Norichiki Aoki were the only Brewers to pick up two hits. Meanwhile, Rickie Weeks went 0-2 with two walks and just one strikeout.
Another day another game as the Brewers face off with the Diamondbacks one more time tomorrow. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10 as Randy Wolf faces off against the returning Dan Hudson. Oh boy.
Game Thread #46: Brewers (19-26) at Diamondbacks (20-26)
More runs please!
More wins please!
Tonight's Matchup: Milwaukee (Greinke) at Arizona (Miley)
Coming into this season, Wade Miley (4-1, 2.12) was the Diamondbacks' thirteenth best prospect according to John Sickels. Miley curently has a 2.12 ERA and 3.28 FIP. Since being made a starter on April 23, he has made six starts with a 1.91 ERA and .630 opponent OPS. Sort of makes you wonder what Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer--the Diamondbacks' top two prospects and two of the top pitching prospects in the game--could do.
Miley has been excellent despite low strikeout numbers. He has just a 5.73 career K/9 in the majors and never really struck out many hitters in the minors. There were a couple stops where his K/9 jumped, but nothing that appeared sustainable. Throughout much of his minor league career, he also had a high walk rate, with a BB/9 sitting in the mid-3.00s to 4.00s. This season, he has knocked those numbers down to just a 2.73 BB/9, which is surely helping his overall numbers. Also aiding him is a 0.39 HR/9, which is bound to come up sooner or later.
In six starts, Miley has not allowed an earned run in three of them. He would have five quality starts, but he missed out on one by one out. His only other non-quality start came against the Mets when he allowed four earned runs in six innings. He has yet to walk more than two hitters in a start. His first two starts were especially impressive. Against the Phillies and Marlins he threw a combined 12.1 innings and allowed just three hits overall.
Miley relies heavily on his fastballs. He throws a 92 MPH four seamer 48% of the time and a 91 MPH two seamer 25% of the time. He'll also throw an 81 MPH changeup (14%) and an 80 MPH curveball (14%).
Unsurprisingly, Miley has never faced a Brewers hitter. Uh-oh.
Zack Greinke (5-1, 2.70) has been good Zack Greinke all year. A 2.70 ERA, 1.76 FIP, 2.37 xFIP, 9.37 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, and 0.16 HR/9 should make him a Cy Young contender, easily. Hell, it should maybe make him the Cy Young frontrunner. He even has a 5-1 record! Greinke is having an absolutely phenomenal season and is a bright spot in an otherwise drab start to 2012.
His numbers would look even better if not for his second start of the year against the Cubs when he gave up eight runs in 3.2 innings. That was one of only two non-quality starts. The other was due to him only pitching 5.1 innings, as he allowed just three runs to the Giants. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any other start.
Zack Greinke might very well be the best pitcher in the major leagues when he keeps it all together. He did in 2009. He might be doing it again.
Greinke has faced six current Diamondbacks at least ten times. Here is how they have fared:
| Player | PA | Line |
| Jason Kubel | 30 | .259/.333/.519 |
| Lyle Overbay | 24 | .348/.375/.652 |
| Aaron Hill | 23 | .318/.348/.364 |
| Justin Upton | 13 | .400/.538/1.100 |
| Chris Young | 12 | .100/.250/.400 |
| John McDonald | 10 | .100/.100/.200 |
I have yet to see a lineup for the Brewers at the time of this writing. If you see the lineup, be a dear and share it in the comments.
In the bullpen:
Francisco Rodriguez pitched 0.2 innings (7 pitches) last night.
Jose Veras pitched 1 inning (27 pitches) last night.
Kameron Loe pitched two innings (41 pitches) Wednesday.
John Axford pitched one inning (11 pitches) Wednesday.
Mike McClendon pitched one inning (10 pitches) on Wednesday for Nashville.
Juan Perez last pitched on Tuesday.
Tim Dillard last pitched on Sunday.
Manny Parra pitched two innings (44 pitches) Wednesday and is expected to start Tuesday.
ARCHIVED AUDIO: Kyle On The Home Stretch And Baseball PhD
This week I've got two audio options for your Saturday afternoon "waiting for baseball" listening pleasure.
First, my weekly appearance on The Home Stretch with Justin Hull on AM 1570 The Score in Appleton has been archived. This week we spent 43 minutes discussing the following topics:
- Comparing the 2012 Brewers to 2010.
- Looking around the NL Central
- Options for Marco Estrada's spot in the rotation.
- Zack Greinke and the decision the Brewers face regarding trading or attempting to re-sign him (or trading him, then attempting to re-sign him).
- Comparing Rickie Weeks' 2012 struggles to 2011 Casey McGehee
- Randy Wolf, the credit he doesn't get for a solid 2011 season and what can be done about his 2012 struggles.
I'm typically on The Home Stretch every Friday, usually from 3-3:45 when other events don't move us to another time.
In an added bonus, this week I also appeared on the Baseball PhD Podcast, which you can hear here. On the show I talk to Ed Kasputis about the 2012 Brewers and the gameday experience at Miller Park.
Saturday's Pick 6 Last Call
Congratulations are due out to Some Guy Named Gabbo, yesterday's winner in our SB Nation Pick 6 contest. Here's the full leaderboard:
| Rank | Player | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Some Guy Named Gabbo | 78.6 |
| 2 | Megalomaniac | 68.4 |
| 3 | Lewthelegend | 65.2 |
| 4 | icecreamman | 64.4 |
| 5 | Chris B | 54.8 |
| 6 | brewman70 | 54.2 |
| 7 | weisomatic. | 52.5 |
| 8 | 5toolz | 51.8 |
| 9 | drezdn | 50.6 |
| 10 | FearTheBeer | 49.6 |
The Padres and Mets play today's first game at 12:10, so you still have about an hour to go make your picks for today. Then, while you're thinking of it, go play Prognostikeggers too.

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