Happy Thoughts from Redbird Fans

by roguejim on Jan 31, 2006 6:07 PM CST

I know we're in a lull for Brew Crew News, so here's something that's worth looking at --- a Cardinal web site that discusses the NL Central race.

Generally, some nice thoughts toward our guys: the worst seems to be "they'll be OK in 2006," and the best seems to be "they're in a position to contend now and in years to come."

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Wow

I was quite impressed by those guys, giving the Crew the credit. They seemed pretty intelligent, and I've heard Cards fans have a reputation for that. This is much unlike the delusional Cubs fans, with theer "this is the year we win it all, and if it's not, it's clearly due to outside forces" rhetoric.

But I think they made some legitimate points about the Brewers, both positive and negative. But some of them really aren't too concerned about losing the NL Central; I really wouldn't say it's a guarantee right now.

by Griswald on Jan 31, 2006 11:43 PM CST 0 recs

I would say that

the VEB crowd is very possibly the most consistently knowledgable and bright of any team-centered community on the web. So it comes as no surprise to me on that count.

I also pretty much take it for granted that they'll win the division. Some Cub fans think they have hope...but EVERYTHING would have to break right for them...and even then, I think their potential maxes out at about 90 wins, which is about the lowest you could project the Cardinals to get, even with an injury or two to someone other than Albert.

As for the Astros, it doesn't feel right to count them out, but...even with Roger back, he won't be able to pitch for them until May 1; he'll be more fragile than he was last year, and I think a lot of those guys overperformed last year. They might put together a solid 85-86 win season, but again, not good enough to really threaten.

The Cards won't be as good as they were last year or the year before...but sadly, they'll most likely be better than us.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 1, 2006 12:34 AM CST up 0 recs

agree

I think it's the Cardinals' division to lose, but they will get some pushes from the Crew and Stros, and (maybe) the Cubs. You could say the Cubs could challenge pretty much every year, but things tend to happen with that team.

by Griswald on Feb 2, 2006 4:00 PM CST up 0 recs

cubs

you don't think the cubs will be worse this year?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 3, 2006 9:50 AM CST up 0 recs

i'll plead ignorance

I guess I haven't actually read up on them and what they've done this offseason, but it seems like with that payroll they should at least have the ability to get in contention.

What am I missing?

by Griswald on Feb 3, 2006 7:30 PM CST up 0 recs

Jacob may want to say more...

...but in short, they didn't break .500 last year, so you'd have to expect massive improvements for them to contend this year. They'll probably get improved production out of CF (Pierre instead of Patterson) and if Murton starts in LF, that'll be better than the mix that went out there last year, but Derrek Lee probably won't match 2005, and it's an injury-prone team all over.

On the pitching side, that's where the real variables are...the bullpen is full of question marks and Dusty doesn't manage the pen very well...Kerry Wood could be a stellar starter, a stellar closer/set-up man, or just be injured again...this could be the year Zambrano's overuse catches up with him.

I wrote about the Cubs here:
http://www.brewcrewball.com/story/2005/12/27/18024/728
and I don't think much has changed in the last month. If everybody's healthy and plays up to expectations, they could battle with us for 2nd place...if not, they'll be battling Cinci for 4th.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 3, 2006 7:39 PM CST up 0 recs

Alright

My line of thinking was that they underachieved last year, and if they were to play the way they "should" play, or could play, and stay healthy, etc. then they could possibly contend against a Cardinals team that, to my knowledge, hasn't gotten any younger. I still believe, like most everyone, it's the Cardinals' division to lose.

I can't believe the Cubs still have Dusty?! It seems like they have underachieved every year he's been there. But, he is responsible for two of the most enjoyable baseball games I have ever watched, Game 6 and Game 7 of the '03 NLCS.

by Griswald on Feb 3, 2006 7:48 PM CST up 0 recs

ober-achieved?

their pythagorean record (based on runs scored and runs allowed) had them at 80-82. Actual record was 79-83, so they underperformed by only 1 game.

Now in predicting how they'll fare in 2006, one quick, but dirty, way is to look where they will improve.

pierre is an upgrade for sure, but that might be it, right? everywhere else will probably be a downgrade, from lee to maddux to walker to jacque jones.

If they play all the way up to their potential they may reach .500. I just don't see where they got better.

injuries you say? Well, the best they started any month of the season was 3 games over .500. So at their best stretches during 2005 they were only slightly better than a .500 ballclub.

Cubs will be battling for 4th place in the NL Central next year.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 6, 2006 3:46 PM CST up 0 recs

I'm a bit disappointed

I thought "Ober-achieved" would have a Wes Obermueller reference!

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 6, 2006 7:42 PM CST up 0 recs

asdf

:)
it was implicit.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 7, 2006 3:36 PM CST up 0 recs

I should add

you're right that their payroll should keep them in contention, but when they're spending $10m each for multiyear deals for a couple of inconsistent setup guys...well, having more money than we do gets cancelled out a bit.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 3, 2006 7:40 PM CST up 0 recs

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	97	64	.602	0	Lost 4
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