This is Better than Dave Roberts

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 25, 2006 2:54 PM CST in Transactions Comment 23 comments

The Milwaukee Brewers today acquired C Johnny Estrada, RHP Claudio Vargas and RHP Greg Aquino from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for LHP Doug Davis, LHP Dana Eveland and OF Dave Krynzel.

How about that! I've been ready for Davis to find a new home for a while now, but I didn't expect it would be in a transaction like this. Estrada has only four years of service time, so he'll be under the Brewers control for two more years. Call him "Bridge to Salome." I'm not sure if he's much better than Mike Rivera, but he has had a couple of solid years, and it would appear we got him on the cheap.

I think the key part of this deal is Davis for Vargas. Statistically, they are very similar pitchers; Davis has a longer track record, but Vargas is younger, cheaper, and will be under the Brewers control for three more years. And he dominated the Crew a time or two last year, so it's good to have him on our side.

The only way in which this deal comes out a net loss for the Brewers is if Eveland immediately comes into his own as a starter. If he does, it's the reverse of the Richie Sexson trade--we're getting lots of value from Chris Capuano and will continue to do so. Eveland could come back to haunt us, but on the other hand, he's shown very little at the big-league level yet, so it's a reasonable gamble.

Long story short: net win for the Brewers. Krynzel has no value on this team, Eveland wasn't someone we could confidently write into our 2007 plans, and Davis would've been nice to have around, but we would've lost him after the end of the season. Vargas will probably do just as well as Davis did, we get a high-upside arm for the bullpen, and we have two or three guys now who are legitimate major-league starting catchers. I like it.

After the jump, I have a bunch of stuff from the press release, including profiles and Doug Melvin's comments on the three new Brewers.

Update [2006-11-25 16:15:46 by Jeff]: Here's the story from the official site, and here's a set of ZiPS projections for the D-Backs. Estrada is projected at .290/.340/.435, while Vargas comes out at (gasp!) 6-13, 5.54. Ouch. Keep in mind that AZ plays in a very hitter-friendly park, not that those numbers can be saved by any environment.

"Estrada has been a very good offensive catcher during his career," Melvin said. "His ability to switch hit and his high contact/low strikeout approach is something that the Brewers offense has been missing."

Vargas, 28, went 12-10 with a 4.92 ERA in 2006. He made 30 starts and a relief appearance last season with Arizona. His 12 wins were second on the Diamondbacks, behind N.L. Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. A four-year Major League veteran, Vargas holds a career record of 32-32 with a 4.92 ERA.

A native of the Dominican Republic, the right-hander began his Major League career with Montreal/Washington (2003 - 2005) before joining Arizona in June of 2005.

"Vargas appears to be coming into his own," Melvin said. "He is a big, physical starter who has a power arm and will fit right into our rotation."

Aquino, 28, recently completed his third Major League season with the Diamondbacks where he went 2-0 with a 4.47 ERA in 42 relief appearances. Aquino is currently pitching for Estrellas de Oriente of the Dominican Winter League where he holds a 2-0 record alongside a 0.00 ERA with 7 strikeouts and no walks through 3 games.

In 2004, his rookie season with Arizona, Aquino recorded 16 saves. Also a native of the Dominican Republic, Aquino has spent his entire career with Arizona and owns a career record of 2-3 with a 4.93 ERA in 111 relief appearances.

"Aquino has always had a power arm, throwing in the 94 - 96 mph range," Melvin said. "He will add depth to our bullpen and he has the ability to pitch late in the games as evidenced by his 16 saves in 2004."

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I like it

Obviously, if Vargas moves into Davis' spot in the rotation, it could be a downgrade as far as consistency, but potential upside. Estrada solidifies the catcher spot and gives some help to Damian.

Estrada, Vargas, and Aquino are all arbitration eligible, but what's the odds the Brewers may try to sign Estrada and Vargas to cover their arbitration years?

by John on Nov 25, 2006 3:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

also like it

my main question is what will be happening to damian miller, will he be staying with the brewers next year?

but echoing john and jeff, i think it's a great trade for the crew. and our history in dealing with the diamondbacks makes me feel even more comfortable :)

by Griswald on Nov 25, 2006 3:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'll bet Damian stays

as a super-backup, maybe 100-110 games for Estrada (he was in 114 last year) and 50-60 for Damian. I don't think Estrada's defensive rep is the greatest, so maybe Damian goes in as a defensive replacement sometimes.

But, this crossed my mind...it's also possible that Estrada doesn't stay. We don't exactly need another catcher if we trust Mike Rivera to not suck, and Estrada could have value. I don't know who all is in the market for a catcher now...maybe the Giants?

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 25, 2006 3:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My guess is he stays

I bet Rivera goes to AAA, and Estrada becomes the main guy. Rivera kind of stopped being productive toward the end of last year, and it'd be hard to go from a strength to a weakness without getting something really good in return.

I like how you updated the Your 2006 Brewers list on the left. How very on the ball of you.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Nov 25, 2006 5:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

vargas

where does he fit on this pitching staff? his numbers look eerily similar to that of davis, but being younger i think he has more of an upside. could he potentially be a no. 3-4 starter next year?

by Griswald on Nov 25, 2006 4:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

This is fantastico

What a great trade. Like Jeff says, we only have DD for one more year, and then he's probably off to greener pastures. In the meantime, we don't know if we get the good Doug Davis of 2003-2004 or the stinky Doug Davis of 2005.

We get rid of Krynzel, which is good for several reasons: he's not very good, his name is hard to spell, and it was only a matter of time before I started saying that we drafted him.

And Eveland...the only real loss, and that's more a loss in possibility. Just the same, he hasn't shown anything in his time with us that says he's turning the corner.

Meanwhile, we get an upper echelon (in the NL, at least) catcher --- maybe not a lot of power, but he'll hit close to .300. He and Miller should be one of the better catching tandems in the league.

Vargas is probably not more than a #3 or #4 pitcher, but I doubt his numbers will be worse than Davis's were last season. Probably 4.5-ish. And Aquino probably has as much value as Eveland does now, if not moreso.

Plus we save some cash in the deal. I take back (almost) every negative thing I said about Melvin. :)

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Nov 25, 2006 5:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I think it's a solid trade that will pan itself out through next season. Davis in Arizona reminds me of a less expensive Russ Ortiz (you know, the inning eating/high walks guy), and I think he'll bounce back from a poor season. The Brewers have too many fantabulous starters in the minors who will be ready within two years. Plus, if the team had to get rid of a SP, I would have preferred Davis over the other three.

Miller ought to be more productive at the plate with less work. And Aquino will be hit or miss, but at least the Brewers can trot him out there every other day. Getting the two P's out of Arizona will also help.

Nate - I'm so rad!

by nmc on Nov 26, 2006 11:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Never

"The Brewers have too many fantabulous starters in the minors"

This is impossible.

by battlekow on Nov 26, 2006 12:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It is

Winter, I'm supposed to be optimistic, right? As a Brewers fan I'm allowed a few days of optimism throughout the year.

Nate - I'm so rad!

by nmc on Nov 26, 2006 2:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Haha

You certainly are. But I wasn't responding to your characterization of the talent, just the assertion that you could ever have too much pitching.

by battlekow on Nov 26, 2006 3:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno

I'm not that excited. Vargas is totally uninteresting, not unlike Davis, but I think you guys are overrating Estrada. Mike Rivera is the same age and will provide more power/less average for much less money (not that Estrada is very expensive, but still). Aquino will be a nice setup guy, but hell, so would Eveland, I think. Since it really doesn't change much and only has the potential to hurt if Eveland figures it out, I'm giving it a tentative thumbs down.

by battlekow on Nov 25, 2006 8:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

I think Rivera will provide less power and less average, but I didn't see that much of him to say for sure. In any event, I'm assuming the salaries work out to our advantage.

Besides, I'm excited that the catcher in our lineup is not a hole of suck. (No offense, Damian.)

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Nov 25, 2006 9:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I forgot

We now have an all-star catcher! Dave Nilsson, eat your heart out.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Nov 26, 2006 12:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Daron Sutton chimes in

Unsurprisingly, he's walking more comfortable now that Doug Dastardly is a Snake. His thesis/future dog food is that Doug Davis is as good as Barry Zito. He's wrong, of course, but not really by that much, though the idea of park factors predictably eludes him.

by battlekow on Nov 26, 2006 3:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

too bad...

Doug Davis thought he had gotten rid of Daron Sutton :)

by Michael M on Nov 26, 2006 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i...

i like this trade, although it would've been nice to keep eveland

If only we had Ryan Zimmerman...

by IronBMike on Nov 27, 2006 1:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I love this trade!

The more I look at it, the more I love this trade. If you throw out 2005, when Estrada was battling injuries all year, he has put together two very nice years in a row. As was pointed out, his BA and RBI numbers during this period are top-5ish among NL catchers.

Then you have Vargas: younger, cheaper and under our control longer than DD. As for Claudio's control, it looks better than DD's: witness a 123 Ks/52 BBs and a 1.41 WHIP versus 159 Ks/102 BBs and 1.52 WHIP for DD. Eveland and DD for these two guys alone would have been a good deal.

Throw in Aquino, who has a lively fastball and is tough on lefties and the deal gets sweeter. We now have middle-relief depth; which, given the deals being handed out to guys like Speier and Justin Walker, should be in demand this week at the Winter Meetings.

I've completely disregarded Krynzel in this analysis, as I view him as worthless.

Whatever happened to Ramser Correa???!

by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Nov 27, 2006 4:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

One of the best parts, IMHO

Is that we duck out of the way of the Overpaid Snowball rolling at us. DD is coming off an off year, and he's 31. He's right at the time in his career when his salary demand far outweighs his benefit to the team. That can be someone else's $20 million headache.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Nov 27, 2006 4:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

krynzel

in my view he was a guy who is probably a good player but simply needed a change of scenary. i wish him the best.

next up - ben hendrickson.

by Griswald on Nov 27, 2006 6:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

krynzel

I think he is out of options, and we might have lost him to waivers anyway.

by Dutch on Nov 27, 2006 10:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Does this mean...

... I have to change my little tag after my name?

Looks like he was online yesterday seeking out new friends from the Diamondbacks. I hear Conor Jackson has really pimped out page.

Nate - I'm so rad!

by nmc on Nov 27, 2006 4:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

That's so sad

Maybe Claudio Vargas has a MySpace page. :)

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Nov 27, 2006 4:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Vargas is not that good, sorry

For all you over excited Milwaukee fans, Vargas is not that good. I watched nearly every single start he had last year. Vargas was bailed out numerous times by one of the best 2B in Orlando Hudson, and either Drew or Counsell at SS. If it wasn't for the D-Backs top double play defense, he would have had an ERA above 6. In addition, I hope Milwaukee has a good relief because Vargas will not go deep, while Davis saved your bullpen.
The real steal for the Brewers may be Aquino, who has potential (but that is all so far).
As all you Milwaukee fans say Davis may not be that great, but Vargas is worse and has never done anything. I really feel bad since Milwaukee never has a winning team, and I know you all want to get excited . Still, trust me Vargas is nothing to get excited about. You should get no more excited than I told D-backs fans to get excited when they signed Russ Ortiz (and by the end of the year he couldn't get an out for Baltimore). Sorry but Vargas will luckily be number 5 in the rotation (if that).
The only possible argument is money, Davis was going to be expensive. Still, sorry brewers fans but unless something changes expect no more than 80 wins (if lucky).

by truth101 on Dec 8, 2006 6:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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