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The Ned Yost Lifetime Employment Program

Ned sez:

Yost also is taking extended looks at catchers Mark Johnson and Mike Rivera but downplayed the notion that Chad Moeller's job could be in jeopardy after his slow start (0 for 12, including four strikeouts in the Japanese exhibition game).

"We want to look at different guys," Yost said. "I played Jeff Cirillo at second base today. Does that mean Rickie Weeks should be worried? No. This is the time to look at guys."

I really don't understand why Ned doesn't put pressure on Moeller.  Maybe he thinks Chad will perform better without it; it's always possible there are back-office conversations that we're not privy to.  As we need to be reminded during Spring Training, what managers and GMs tell beat writers doesn't really tell us much until moves actually happen.

But here's what we do know.  

  1. Chad Moeller hasn't been good since 2003.  
  2. He just turned 31, so there's no reason to expect he's maturing or somehow "peaking" at this point in his career.  
  3. We have one organization soldier, Mark Johnson, who is at least as good (though probably not much better).  
  4. We have another journeyman in Mike Rivera who probably is better.
  5. Both Johnson and Rivera  would cost an extra $150k or so to put on the major league roster.  In other words, the cost of upgrading from Moeller to Rivera is negligable.  We'd be eating Moeller's $800k, but that's spent whether Chad plays for Milwaukee, Nashville, or Yomiuri.  
  6. Moeller's not a world-beating defender.  Neither is Rivera, but Rivera isn't bad--many observers think Moeller is.  

Moeller has never done anything on the field for Milwaukee to earn this kind of guarantee.  He may well have earned a S.T. invite, and a spot on the 40-man.  Heck, with the backup catchers available this offseason, Chad may deserve that $800k deal.  But bringing Moeller back and gifting him the backup catcher job is like giving Chris Magruder a deal, promising him a role as 5th OF, and then unthinkingly sending Gabe Gross to Nashville.  

Ouch.

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moeller's defense & more.
I always thought he was a great defender.

And something much harder to judge, I always thought he called a good game.

Hopefully Damian Miller starts 125 times like he wants to. The difference between Moeller and some other catcher is not going to make much of a difference.

Seems to me that the relationship Moeller has developed with the pitching staff is worth something as well.

Let's be generous and say Moeller gets 200 ABs, or any backup catcher whoever that might be. Let's look at Runs Created using OXS x AB.

Let's say Moeller repeats his '05 season and posts a 260/370 line for an OXS of .096. Using ZIPs for the other two, we can put together this chart:

Name OBP SLG OXS RC
Moeller .260 .370 .096 19.2
Rivera .280 .400 .112 22.4
Johnson .330 .340 .112 22.4


Very little difference, eh?

Well Ok, now let's say we got a backup catcher who was as good as Damian Miller (zips has him at 320/380) and our Damian Miller Clone got 200 ABs. Damian Miller Clone would create... <drumroll> ... 24.3 runs.

Our Damian Miller Clone outperforms Moeller by 5 runs over the course of 200 ABs. Only 5 Runs!

There is no way Moeller doesn't make the team, the "upgrade" offensively is not worth the experience Moeller has.

If Moeller repeats his 16 runs created from last year I'll be happy with that.
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Mar 16, 2006 9:41 AM CST   0 recs

Okay...
...you sound more rational than I am.

I think ZiPS is regressing a bit too favorably for Chad though.  That seems like something that might be structurally wrong with the system--I know Dan regresses a lot, which makes sense for the vast majority of players.  But backup catchers, and maybe some middle infield scrubs are not "major league" hitters in the usual sense.  I mean, regress John Flaherty all you want, he'll still hit .200.  Chad looks to me more like John Flaherty than somebody primed to bounce back at age 31.

Just a thought.  Thanks for looking at that stuff...and you're probably right, I'm making a big deal over nothing.

by Jeff Sackmann on Mar 16, 2006 2:07 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

I take back some of that.
I saw Moeller's .260 and thought it was BA.  Duh.  I figure a .260 OBP is reasonable, not overly regressed.  

All hail ZiPS!

by Jeff Sackmann on Mar 16, 2006 2:37 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

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