Looking for the bright side, part II
Let's say, however fancifully, that today's move is part of some bizarre, drawn-out MASTER PLAN designed by Doug Melvin. It was obvious (maybe months ago) that Lee would be moved, so some deal had to be made. By making it today, with a series against the Reds before the deadline, there are still decisions to be made.
Scenario 1: We sweep the Reds.
We start next week 3 games out of the wild card, and even have time to make one more deal...though I don't know what that would be. We have a potentially great closer, we have a monster platoon in each outfield corner, and we could win this thing.
Scenario 2: We lose 2 or 3 games to the Reds.
After crying ourselves to sleep on Sunday night, we wake up on Monday to find that Gord Ash has eaten all the pizza. And that Doug has been working the phones. After all, he still has mondo trading chips. Cordero has been great since May, and he has proven closer mojo. Just about any contending team would want to get in on that. If people are talking to the Rats about Roberto Hernandez, they'd surely be interested in Coco. We also have Mench, who has been a hot commodity of sorts for the last 18 months, regularly appearing in trade rumors, especially linked to the Cardinals.
Scenario 3: We take 2 of 3 from the Reds.
I don't like this scenario, because we probably stand pat, though we're still five games out. In this case, we trade someone to the Twins for Jose Cordero, because we want to complete the set and we don't know what else to do.
In other words, this trade was a complicated hedge. Lee had to go, and now we still have options with 74 hours to go before the deadline. It may not be a clear win (far from it), but it will keep things interesting, and we could yet end up with a handful of prospects.
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52 comments
Comments
Jeff's on a roll today.
by roguejim on Jul 28, 2006 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, I'm a little better
- Cruz = Nix.
- Mench over two months almost = Lee over two months, and is for the moment way cheaper. As was mentioned before (I think by Jacob), he's Lee 4 years ago.
- We also get a pretty good pitcher in Cordero the Elder, plus an unheralded guy in A ball (Cordero the Lesser) who has good numbers.
It means, though, we have more work to do. I hope "more work" means the end of the line for Jenkins and Clark, instead of trading Hart/Gross/Gwynn, or even flipping Nix or Mench. I hope Doug's moustache does have Jeff's Master Scheme still in the works.
by roguejim on Jul 28, 2006 12:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The thing is
by battlekow on Jul 28, 2006 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Charlie Steiner just said
That was a startling comment.
by thekranz on Jul 28, 2006 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz != Mench
Cruz might have a couple good years at the ML level, but he won't exceed what Mench will do in the next couple years, and then Cruz has peaked. Also, Cruz could still bust, whereas Mench has clearly made it to the next level.
Mench > Cruz > Nix
But i think
Cordero > Lee
So there that is.
by jacob on Jul 28, 2006 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mench's road numbers
You don't think Cruz could put up .295/.338/.423 in the big leagues? Okay, I don't either, because he won't hit .295, but I think he'll easily slug better than .423.
by battlekow on Jul 28, 2006 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You might be right about Nix
Not a good trade, but I'm coming in off the ledge.
by roguejim on Jul 28, 2006 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
exaggerated
That's not quite right though, and I would like to take it back. :)
he's putting up numbers similar to lee did 4 years ago and probably has lee 3 years ago potential, but he's two years older already, and the splits are starting to show themselves.
I'd say he's definitely the right handed hitter in a platoon that could reproduce lee like numbers.
He's cheaper for this year and next, I think this trade, mench in arby and cordero with an option sets us up nicely for '07 while looking like we aren't quitting this year.
I thought at first, nice trade, then i thought if Mench platoons with Jenks very good trade, now that I can see 2007 lining up a bit, this has the potential to be a brilliant acquisition (Coco/Mench).
by jacob on Jul 28, 2006 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brilliant?
by battlekow on Jul 28, 2006 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am.
It's cause at 23, when other prospects are showing themselves, Cruz was dominated by A-ball pitching. His K/BB ratio was 128/29.
Then, at 24 he put up some gaudy numbers against A+/AA pitching, when others are at AAA, and put up decent numbers in AAA. But K/BB ratio was 149/51.
2005 looked ok, and '06 looks great, i think he is just a little far behind, and i wonder if his success at the minors will translate.
On the plus side for Nelson, his OPS is supported by a nice high OBP despite the low walk rate. Guys that don't make contact very well don't jump to majors so well.
I fully admit I could be way wrong, but my hunch is he is overhyped. And I see the trade like this.
Cordero for Lee (not a bad trade)
Mech for Cruz (great trade)
So I still say great trade, and if'/07 lines up right, brilliant trade.
by jacob on Jul 28, 2006 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
by thekranz on Jul 28, 2006 1:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't know
Only thing I can think, there must be a reason this guy (Cruz) has been shipped around so much.
by thekranz on Jul 28, 2006 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bleh
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 28, 2006 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if Cruz and Nix weren't part of the deal?
Maybe the Rangers wouldn't do Lee for Mench and the Corderos. (I saw Mench and the Corderos once live. They rocked the house.) So maybe Cruz and Nix even it out some?
I dunno. I can only hope that Jacob is right and Cruz is overrated.
by roguejim on Jul 28, 2006 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz
So we say Lee for Cordero and Mench, they say, ok but we need an OF prospect, we say ok, you can have Cruz, but we'll need Nix and a A level pitching prospect.
by jacob on Jul 28, 2006 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One trade analysis
This strikes me as an odd and somewhat disappointing package for the Brewers to end up with given all the exciting rumors swirling around for the past month...
[snip]
The flip side is that Mench has been much better at home than on the road during his Rangers career, hitting .284 with an .855 OPS in Texas and just .263 with a .769 OPS everywhere else. He's certainly a worthwhile NL-only pickup who figures to put up good numbers going forward, but his stock definitely takes a dip.
Not to be overlooked is Cordero, who just a year ago was amongst the best fantasy closers around. He's struggled too often this season and lost his job to Akinori Otsuka months ago, but could get a chance to replace the recently demoted Derrick Turnbow as the Brewers' new closer.
Cordero's strikeout rate remains excellent despite an ugly ERA, and moving from Texas should help suppress his tendency to serve up untimely homers. He saved 47 games in 2004 and 39 games last season, and Turnbow has been a big enough mess of late that Milwaukee could be ready for a long-term change.
Cruz is perhaps the most surprising part of this deal, as he's the best of the two young players changing teams, yet is leaving the Brewers. He's a little too old to be a big-time prospect, but he's put up great numbers in the minors for several years running, including hitting .302 with 19 homers, 72 RBIs and 17 steals in 103 games at Triple-A this season.
It's unclear where Cruz fits into the Rangers' always-crowded outfield long term, but he profiles as a solid everyday player who has the power potential to have a ton of success in Texas. I expected the Brewers to give Cruz a chance to replace Lee in their outfield, so including him in the deal with Lee is a bit of a shocker.
Last but not least is Nix, who at this point looks like a bust. The 25-year-old Nix is too young to give up on, but he's dealt with a number of injuries, fell out of favor in Texas, has made no improvements in regard to his complete inability to control the strike zone and is hitting just .263 with a measly .743 OPS in 76 games at Triple-A.
by roguejim on Jul 28, 2006 1:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What to do with Caballo's Corner?
Weeks Wing
Hall's Hangout
Is it always who plays Left, or where they hit their Homeruns?
by familyguy on Jul 28, 2006 3:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
though I guess
Could just become Corey's Corner.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 28, 2006 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Laynce's Loge
Or Hart's Haberdashery.
by nmc on Jul 28, 2006 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another trade analysis
So there you have it. For fantasy '06, all three of these guys are extremely relevant, but each may turn out to be something of a rental. Frankly, I'm surprised: It seems to me that the Brewers already have decent prospects (or major-league talent) in the outfield and bullpen, and it would've behooved them to try to fill other slots (notably starting pitching). But I suppose this deal is one of those 'tweeners for the fans: they needed to get rid of Lee, who wasn't going to sign with them, but they didn't want to wave the white flag. If next April comes, though, and Milwaukee has nothing to show for having dealt their mega-star, history will treat this deal unkindly.
Wait, what was that?
Darn tootin.' Doug, you better have other plans at the ready. GMs get fired for squandering opportunities like this.
by roguejim on Jul 28, 2006 3:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What Melvin was thinking
"This was the best deal we could make," said Melvin. "It gives us the chance to continue to run a good big-league lineup out there. If we had done any of the other deals, you'd think we were giving up on this season."
The deal was somewhat surprising in that not only did the Brewers trade Lee but also Cruz, their top outfield prospect in the minor leagues. Cruz was batting .302 with 20 home runs and 73 RBI at Class AAA Nashville, and was considered by many to be the logical successor to Lee if he were traded.
"Giving up Nelson Cruz was tough," said Melvin. "But we had to balance the deal off at the other end to get Mench."
Mench, 28, who has been the Rangers' starting rightfielder, was batting .284 with 12 homers and 50 runs batted in, in 87 games. Manager Ned Yost said Mench will replace Lee in left field on at least a semi-regular basis.
Nix, 25, began the season as Texas' centerfielder but was sent down after batting only .094 (3 for 32) in nine games. At Class AAA Oklahoma, he was hitting .263 with 10 homers and 53 RBI.
Francisco Cordero, 31, established himself as one of the top closers in the majors in 2004 and 2005, when he saved 49 and 37 games, respectively. He got off to a bad start this season, however, and the Rangers switched to Akinori Otsuka as their closer.
Cordero blew 9 of 15 save opportunities before being moved into a setup role. In 49 appearances, he was 7-4 with a 4.81 ERA.
The Brewers have experienced problems in their bullpen recently, with closer Derrick Turnbow losing that role after four consecutive blown saves. Melvin said Thursday he was pursuing relief help on the trade market.
Yost said he would look at both Turnbow and Cordero in determining who would close games for the rest of the season.
"Production will decide who closes games," said Yost. "We still believe in Derrick Turnbow. He's had a couple of rough weeks but he's had a pretty solid year and a half for us."
Julian Cordero, who is not related to Francisco Cordero, was pitching at Class A Clinton and was 2-5 with a 2.91 ERA in 27 games (five starts).
I changed my mind. I hate this deal again. Melvin is still playing for this year, and seems to think that throwing Mench out there for two months will make a difference over starting Hart.
"You'd think we were giving up the season." You freakin' putz. You know the easiest way for a low-payroll team to NOT succeed? Half-ass the rebuilding effort. You traded out best bargaining chip for a bunch of Jeffrey Hammondses, and you wasted our best prospect with it.
"We had to balance the deal off at the other end to get Mench." NO YOU DIDN'T, YOU MORON. What's the difference between Mench and Hart? Or Mench and Cruz? Is it really THAT much? No, it's not. (Don't tell Jacob.)
Listen, Moustache, when the sporting world is telling you "hmm, this is an odd move by the Brewers with little upside and the chance for disaster," you screwed up. YOU SCREWED UP! You could have taken the minor leaguers and moved on, like a smart GM would have, but you didn't. The only ways to save this are (1) keep trading as if your job depended on it (moron), or (2) break Nelson Cruz's leg, halting the trade with the Rangers. It's desperate, but this trade is so moronic, it requires desperate action.
Idiot. I hate this stupid team. Chorizo, you're with me: let's find a different team to root for. Maybe the Padres or Marlins.
by roguejim on Jul 28, 2006 3:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I had convinced myself I liked the deal
I wish I had never read that article...and I'm assuming Reuben Quevedo is under the chorizo costume.
by thekranz on Jul 28, 2006 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
at least we know how you feel :)
That's a really good point. I meant to write an article a while back about the Marlins this year...maybe I still will. They have a bunch of guys along the lines of Hart/Cruz/Eveland/etc., with a couple of stars, and they're playing as well as we are. They DIDN'T half-ass the rebuilding effort: they just about traded every last vet they had for AA/AAA+ prospects, and look! Those guys can play in the major leagues!
Now, if the Brewers tank this series, and Coco and Mench get flipped...maybe then it'll look better. But Mench really does seem like a waste of trade value.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 28, 2006 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoa there
Also, Nelson Cruz is far from the Brewers best prospect. Braun and Gallardo are miles ahead of Cruz.
I'm not saying this is a good trade. It's certainly not horrible, though. If the Brewers sweep the Reds this weekend (certainly possible) we'll all be talking about how happy we are that the Brewers can still win and don't have to worry about losing Lee for nothing but draft picks (a highly combustible commodity). If they get swept, the Brewers still having pieces left to trade for prospects comparable to Cruz.
by BroadwayJoe22 on Jul 28, 2006 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
fair point
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 28, 2006 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
JDLR for Graffy
Plus, I think if you're looking for prospects, you'll get more by trading someone like Lee than by trading Lee for lesser players and then flipping THOSE. (Exception: the lesser players will let you talk to multiple teams.)
All signs point to Sexson Trade Redux, as if he doesn't have faith in our young OF guys now. (And maybe he doesn't.) Or maybe Mark A. gave him a .500+ record or you're fired ultimatum.
I don't know --- maybe I'll be proved wrong, but I'm a Cruz believer. I'm thrilled to have Braun and Gallardo, but there's something to be said for a prospect succeeding at the AAA level. At this point, it's just a guessing game as to when Gallardo blows his arm out.
Anyway, I don't think you can assume he'll make more trades, if only because they might not pan out. If he does this deal, it's at least with the acknowledgment that they might be our starters on Tuesday. I think that's his plan. Ugh.
And what's with Nix? Is there ANYONE who thinks he has any upside?
by roguejim on Jul 28, 2006 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
jdlr/graff
a) we needed an IF, bad, and
b) JDLR was permanently doghoused.
What we can hope for is that both Coco and Mench have strong second halves. Both will be cheap for '07, so they could be great trade bait. At that point we might be able to get some young pitching, even if it doesn't happen by Monday.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 28, 2006 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess so
Ugh.
Any thoughts about Nix? Is he a flyer? Cribbage partner for Krynzel?
by roguejim on Jul 28, 2006 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're dying for Nix info
by battlekow on Jul 28, 2006 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That convinces me
Doug and the Rangers were talking about the good times, you know, Juan Gonzalez, Justin Thompson, and for a brief moment, at the critical time, Doug thought he was still managing the Rangers. This is a beautiful trade for them: they get Lee for a playoff push and Cruz for the future, plus they shed a fair amount of salary (and get the pick for Lee). For us, it's hard to see an upside. I think Moustache forgot whom he was working for.
So why include Nix, then? What do we do with him? Isn't Nix a tick remover?
by roguejim on Jul 28, 2006 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
flyer
A friend just joked that he's included just to take Cruz's roster spot. There's probably a bit of truth to that.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 28, 2006 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is so not making me feel better
by roguejim on Jul 28, 2006 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
your friend might be right
Isn't it funny how dramatically Podsednik's stock has dropped in Chicago, even though he's putting up better numbers than last year?
by BroadwayJoe22 on Jul 28, 2006 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but
by battlekow on Jul 28, 2006 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
by BroadwayJoe22 on Jul 28, 2006 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A problem
I can certainly see why Melvin did it (traded JDLR), but Neddy Ballgame is not calling the shots, Dougy Canada is.
by battlekow on Jul 28, 2006 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
JDLR
by BroadwayJoe22 on Jul 28, 2006 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeff
by nmc on Jul 28, 2006 3:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
yes
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 28, 2006 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 28, 2006 3:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
opportunity cost
I don't hate the deal from a player standpoint or think the Brewers got ripped off, I just hope they don't always stick to the "have to get major league players" rule from now on.
by rhi on Jul 28, 2006 4:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
To me,
by Stoa on Jul 28, 2006 4:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Optimism
The difference is, when you have nothing, you can be optimistic for the future, because you have nothing to lose. You really can't get worse. Unless Moustache has more trades up his sleeve, this trade is sacrificing improving our 2007+ teams for some wild hope at success in 2006. Ridiculous.
by roguejim on Jul 28, 2006 4:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
the worst part about this
All of my feelings of uncertainty (not pure pessimism) about this deal would turn immediately to overwhelming joy if Melvin could find a way to trade Jenks for a sack of moldy tangerines. I'd be willing to kick in a third of his salary on the remainder of his deal even.
What's the lineup going to look like going forward? Geoff Jenkins in the four hole? Yost still thinks he's the best hitter on the team after Carlos, I think. And that means he's now the best.
My guess:
Weeks
Graffanino
Hall
Fielder
Mench
Jenkins
Miller
Gross/Clark
Not exactly murderers row.
by Bill on Jul 28, 2006 5:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Cirillo
by BroadwayJoe22 on Jul 28, 2006 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The lineup tonight
Hart is starting in LF.
by battlekow on Jul 28, 2006 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
interesting
by Bill on Jul 28, 2006 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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