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Around SBN: Nevin Shapiro Vows To Bring Down Miami

This is it. I promise.

1 Coco plus 1 giant head equals...

I realize I'm beating a caballo muerte a little bit here, but for one last time I'd like to address the question of what we got in exchange for Carlos Lee. I bring it up again for two reasons:

  • Now the trade deadline has passed, we know we're keeping Kevin Mench and Francisco Cordero for the remainder of the year, and
  • Since info about possible Alfonso Soriano deals has leaked, we might have more information about what a prime-time slugger was worth on this year's market.
Unfortunately, Doug Melvin didn't have another trick up his sleeve; I had hope he would find a team that, having lost out on Caballo and/or Sori, would overpay for Mench. Maybe the Twins would've done it for somebody like Boof Bonser...I don't know. It's a crying shame that the Brewers traded Carlos and now can't get Corey Hart playing time. There are is perhaps no other player in Major League Baseball more unfairly blocked.

Not only is Kevin Mench possibly not better than Nelson Cruz (certainly, 1.5 years of Mench isn't better than 6 years of Cruz!) but Mench may not be any better than Hart. To think: we gave up equal value for a player who is redundant.

So let's look at some of our other options. The Dodgers were known to be in the running, rumored to have offered a package built around Andy LaRoche. LaRoche alone would've been worth considering, but instead of focusing on him, look at what the Dodgers gave up for rental of Julio Lugo: Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza. Pedroza isn't much (though he is intriguing), but Guzman probably has more upside than LaRoche, and the Dodgers organization seems to have lost some interest in him. Guzman is 21 and hitting well in AAA--he's moved around in the field, but numbers like that are Corey Hart-like.

Clearly, the Dodgers aren't afraid to trade prospects; as Marc Normandin points out, they've already sent many of their good ones to the Devil Rays. In the long run, it may well turn out that Logan White knows which prospects to use as trading chips, and they're keeping the best, but I think it's more likely that Ned Coletti learned his lessons well in San Fran, and is ready to mortgage the farm for a shot at this year's Wild Card.

Perhaps more importantly, the Angels put together meaningful offers for Miguel Tejada and Alfonso Soriano. The Tejada offer has been reported as Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar; Will Carroll claims that their Sori offer was the same. This article reports a different offer for Alfonso:

[T]he Angels' final offer was believed to be triple-A shortstop Erick Aybar, either double-A pitcher Jose Arredondo or Class-A pitcher Tommy Mendoza, and either outfielder Reggie Willits or Tommy Murphy.
Did the Rays get more for Lugo?

From what I know, Willits and Murphy are 4th OF-types, so they don't really count here. But Aybar would be mighty useful to this team, now and in the future, and Arredondo and Mendoza are quality pitching prospects; Arredondo may be comparable to Yovani Gallardo. His numbers are a little worse, but he's been pitching in the Texas League: adjusted for league and park, they're comparable.

Of course, we don't know that the Angels made that offer to the Brewers. But we don't need to know exactly what was offered to get an idea of the value that Doug Melvin could've gotten had he decided to go the prospect route. In Aybar or Guzman, he would've gotten a Major League-ready talent (or close) who would've slotted into the Brewers system among the top five prospects. In the additional prospect, especially if it was Arredondo, a pitcher who would also fit in among the top ten in the organization. It wouldn't be a win-now move, but then again, we're not going to win now.

I also wonder whether Melvin made a mistake in pulling the trigger three days before the deadline. Jim Bowden appears to have been difficult to deal with; I have to imagine that it was frustration with the Soriano negotiations that led the Dodgers to get involved with Julio Lugo. If Melvin had been dangling Carlos Lee when, yesterday afternoon, it became apparent that Sori was off the market, perhaps one of the available packages--say, Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar--would have been offered to Caballo. We'll never know, but it seems naive to think that offers wouldn't have changed as the market changed on Monday.

As I say, this is the end of my rantings about what we could've/might've/should've gotten for Carlos. I'm officially done dreaming about having Guzman, Aybar, Mathis, Arredondo, or Boof Bonser in our system. I just wish I had more to pin my hopes on than...Julian Cordero.

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good rant.
Jeff, good rant. four things:
  1. I can't believe the Angels would offer up Ervin Santana, they are playing for a division win, who would replace him in the rotation?
  2. You didn't mention the centerpiece of the trade. Francisco Cordero for 1.3 seasons is worth Lee for .3 seasons easy, very easy.
  3. Mench easily outperforms Cruz in '07, i'd put money on it. We have a good shot next year, screw '08, losing Cruz hurts us in the late aughts, sure, but the upgrade for a shot at next season is worth it.
  4. The pieces are in place. I wouldn't trade F.Cordero for a high pitching prospect, would you? Interesting to note that Soriano and Tejada are still with their respective teams. Seems we did much, much better than the Orioles and the Nationals did. What do they have to look forward to in '07?
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 1, 2006 9:33 AM CDT reply actions  

well...
  1. multiple sources suggest that they did offer Santana...it really surprises me, too.
  2. yes...well, i didn't want to go over EVERYTHING again :). I agree, though I don't think Cordero is quite as valuable as you think he is. If he pitches for the next 1.3 years like he has the last three months, then you win.
  3. I'm not so sure. If Mench just needed a change of scenery and a mgr who believes in him, great. If that's not the issue, we have yet another platoon OF playing every day. Maybe Cruz would've been the same way, I don't know.
  4. I'd be tempted to trade Cordero for a high pitching prospect, actually. The Brewers have done great finding cheap closers, and given how inconsistent even expensive closers can be, why start spending money now? If you told me that the Brewers, for some bizarre reason, had to lose Gallardo or Cordero, I'd give up Cordero in a second.
As for the O's and Nats, you're right, they were both pretty dumb. But as far as we can tell, there were offers on the table, including some pretty ridiculous ones for Tejada...they just have lead feet.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 1, 2006 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

platoon
If that's not the issue, we have yet another platoon OF playing every day. Maybe Cruz would've been the same way, I don't know.

I'm worried about that, too. Jenkins is not completely ineffective against righties yet, and Mench has killed lefties. Mench/Jenkins platoon Free Corey Hart. It has to happen now too, to see if Hart will stick.

Regarding the Orioles and the Nationals I guess my point is that the offers probably weren't actually there and the Brewers got the best deal they could've. How could you not deal Soriano for Ervin Sanchez, you'd have to be a bowden-esque idiot.

The Brewers have done great finding cheap closers

Yes, and no, right? Clearly the gamble fails sometimes, and i'm pretty sure that watching Turnbow blow saves in July was enough to convince Melvin that for next year, no gambles, at least, fewer gambles. Also, notice Melvin broke the mold. Really, he shoulda dealt Turnbow and found a new closer. That's the game, teams overvalue the save. Look what we got for Kolb, that was unbelievable that the Braves would have been willing to give up Jose Cappellan for Dan Kolb.

Ok, here, another angle, of the prospects that were actually given up, the ones that teams actually were willing to trade, is there anyone you'd take over cordero/mench?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 1, 2006 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

I guess the problem is that we really don't know
I don't believe that the Angels didn't offer Aybar ...but maybe Melvin doesn't think Aybar is ML ready.  (In which case he is a) wrong, or b) realizes Ned won't use anybody when he has another option and that guy is under 28.

Also, notice Melvin broke the mold. Really, he shoulda dealt Turnbow and found a new closer.

Totally.  Keep bringing in new arms every year, keep shuffling them in, find the ones that are hot and/or have been underrated.  Every once in while we'll put our stock in somebody who flops, like Mike Adams, but the beauty of that is, when they flop, Ned can move on.  Adams was out after a couple of weeks.  I feel like, had Cordero not been acquired, D-Bow would be our closer 5 BSs from now.  Overpaying for closers is not only dangerous because of the money, but because of mgrs like Ned who think that, when you spent $x million for somebody, they have to be used.  

(See also: Jenkins, Geoff.)

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 1, 2006 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Nice analysis.
I agree and wondered why we didn't talk to the Dodgers more -- particularily earlier in the month before they had dealt Dioner Navarro.  Picking up Guzman and Navarro for Lee may have been a possibility and woudl have worked very well.  It is puzzling why the organization doesn't have confidence in Hart.  They seemed high on him in the Spring and he hasn't done anythign diappointing.
Whatever happened to Ramser Correa???!

by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Aug 1, 2006 9:48 AM CDT reply actions  

timing
Overall with timing I think we got the best of what we could get. Remember if Lee would have been moved earlier. Fans would have freaked because they actually thought we had a shot at the wild card. I was never really under the assumption that Lee was interested in staying in milwaukee. Nelson CRuz is obviously the piece that no one knows about. What he'll turn into.

I think the big thing with this deal was timing. Coming out of the break Melvin couldn't deal Lee because of the fans who thought there was a chance. AS the deadline grows to me the value of a "rent a player" goes down. With the return being high for Soriano and the others. Lee got more and more attractive. AS far as the dodgers you don't really know what other deals they had waiting. Whether they told melvin to hold off till they heard back from another team. I would think the phillies getting abreu that lee would make more sense and less money. but it all depends.

But overall, I like Mench in left. I would love to see Corey Hart get a shot. You never know he may be the second coming of Bob Coluccio out there or Danny Walton. Maybe Jenkins has cleared waivers and he may be moved. His value is definately down. I think the Cordero piece was good. With Sheets and Ohka coming back and the trickle down to the bullpen. I think the pitching wasn't what we need. Obviously, after the recent games hitting or lack there of is killing us.

Tim Indiana brewers fan bring back the chalet. give miller park some sort of a historical brewery feel to it. it's a sleeper right now!!!!!!!!!!!!

by storminTAZZ on Aug 1, 2006 10:07 AM CDT reply actions  

Angels offer
I aked Haudricourt about what the angels were offering a soon as I heard Melvin on the radio saying they offered prospects.

He said that Melvin assured him the Angels were not offering top prospects, and none were major league ready.

To me, that rules out Aybar, and definitely means Santana wasn't offered to the Brewers.

by thekranz on Aug 1, 2006 12:12 PM CDT reply actions  

Julian
Does anyone know if Julian Cordero has pitched or is scheduled to anytime soon. I am curious to see how he does in our system.

by familyguy on Aug 1, 2006 12:49 PM CDT reply actions  

he hasn't yet...
but he probably didn't join WV until Sunday or Monday.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 1, 2006 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

caballo trade
i'm going to withold judgement on this trade for the time being for two reasons:

-any of the 3 could have stellar 2nd halves and make us say "carlos lee who?" hell, mench hasn't done so bad in the first few games, has he? jeff mentioned a the possibility of a fresh start doing him well - what if that happens and it turns out we don't need any "prospects"?

-melvin will almost certainly make deals in the offseason with the bullpen and the logjam in the outfield, possibly involving turnbow, cordero, or kolb; and gross, jenkins, mench, clark or any of the other 84 outfielders on the roster.

we're out of the playoff race, so until i see the 25 man roster for opening day 2007, i'm not going to judge this trade just yet (though i still hate the de la rosa for graffinano trade). sometimes i almost wish it would be better if we were 10+ games out, or if one of the real contenders would go on a tear and pull away.

by Griswald on Aug 1, 2006 1:12 PM CDT reply actions  

I was going to ...
... post a really long winded diatribe about what I thought about the deal.  But then I saw this and figure I'll bullet point a few things in here.

* I don't think the Lee trade is as bad as we're making it out to be.

... I'm just as upset the Brewers didn't get an potential ML star/cusp of the majors kind of player, but what I think Melvin is doing is priming the team up for a few years.  As pointed out earlier, Mench's percentages are similar to Lee, and I think Melvin still wanted to keep Lee, and succeeded with a younger version.  He won't put up Lee numbers, and he's property of the Brewers through '08 if they really want him.  Lee had no such gaurantee.

* Adding Mench is a primer for off season deals.

... All of you know the potential for the team's young outfielders, and it would be a nightmare if they all started at the same time.  Having Mench opens up the possiblity to get rid of Jenkins (finally) in the off season and put Hart in that spot.  And when Mench moves on/becomes expensive at the end of his tenure, I would believe the team could slide Braun in (if they decide to move him) or who knows what other players come in.

* If the team keeps Cordero around next season, then falls out of the race in '07, he's excellent trade bait.

... Expensive?  Yes.  But it could be worth it.

* Imagine a bullpen with Cordero/Wise/Turnbow/Capallen firing on all cylinders.

... Sure right now it's a dream, but those four can bring it when it's going right.  There's four innings of solid relief right there.

* Bell was free

... My hatred of David Bell (or David Boone, makes no difference) is unfounded because the Brewers had to get some help.  He was essentially free and will be gone at the end of the season.

* Tony "Grandpa" Graffanino was unnecessary, but it was necessary

... I guess to remain competitive the team had to stick a guy in there (aside from Mr. Overmatched).  I hate to give up someone like de la Rosa, but Ned the Gamer didn't give him a chance.  I hope Jorge does well in KC, good park to pitch in, too.

Once I got over the idea that the Brewers wasted obtaining potential and picked up a couple solid major leagers, I'm ok.  I still don't believe it's a "compete now" move because the team is clearly out of it, but I can see some reasoning behind it.  We may never know the trades that almost could have been.

Nate

by nmc on Aug 1, 2006 2:25 PM CDT reply actions  

mostly agree
...but remember Bell wasn't free.  We didn't give up anything, but we're paying nearly $2 mil to have him instead of a Cirillo/Barnwell or Cirillo/Rottino platoon.  I'm not saying we don't benefit from it (we do) ...but that's $2 mil that isn't being spent elsewhere, whether that be signing international players, saving a little extra for a FA next year, etc.  

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 1, 2006 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah
I was thinking "free" being "not a player I've heard of in the organization."

I forgot to mention my kicking point at the red paper clip arguement with Melvin.  If it weren't for his shrewd moves, we would not have netted Mench and gang for Podsednik and Keith Ginter, that's for sure.

Nate

by nmc on Aug 1, 2006 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

Santana
Yes, multiple sources may suggest that Santana was offered for Lee, but I think that's absolutely insane. I would say it's highly doubtful he was really on the trading block for a rental player. As for Tejada, that might be a different story. But we shouldn't even be talking about Tejada and Lee in the same sentence. Tejada is a much more valuable player.

I think a lot of the Soriano and Lee trade rumors are bogus. If Aybar and Santana were really offered for Soriano, he would be an Angel right now. And if it was true, that would mean Bill Stoneman and Jim Bowden are both disabled. Bowden . . . maybe. Stoneman, I don't think so.

It's more likely that these rumors were leaked by someone in the Angels organization. If word gets out that the team was offering a young major league pitcher and a very good prospect, Stoneman can say "I did all I could" if a deal doesn't work out. If a deal happens, he looks good because the initial rumors proved to be untrue and he gave up less. Plus, it might force a team that isn't skeptical enough to panic and overpay. I think teams do this a lot.

Also, I would much rather have Mench and the two Corderos than Boof Bonser.

Finally, if the Brewers had traded Lee earlier in the month, the fans would have stormed Miller Park and tore it down with their bare hands. It would be nice to be able to run a baseball team without worrying how the fans will react, but that's not reality.

by BroadwayJoe22 on Aug 1, 2006 2:48 PM CDT reply actions  

Lee for Hart?
Mench seems like a fine hitter so far, and the fact that his head barely fits on the screen when he's interviewed almost makes the trade worth it right there.

However, given management's love affair with veterans, the trade ultimately blocks Hart for another year (assuming they don't trade Mench/Clark/Jenkins, of which I think there's a 50/50 chance).

What if Corey Hart can put up Mench-like numbers now, if given a freakin' chance?  What about Gabe Gross (is he still on the team?) and Tony Gwynn?  I wouldn't be at all surprised that if you compared a full season of Mench/Clark/Jenkins to a full season of Hart/Gwynn/Gross, that the latter group is at least comparable, if not better.  Certainly a better value: what, $1 million vs. $15 million, give or take?  (Plus we'd have Cruz as insurance.)

Even if they suck, we'd have the 2nd half of 2006 to figure that out.  Or, if they prove they don't suck, then think how exciting 2007 would be.

If you want to trade for major-league ready guys, fine.  How about trading for guys at a position where we're less strong?  Like I've ranted before, it's not like we have no room for improvement.

On the plus side, I'm glad we didn't keep Lee for a compensatory pick --- unless Cruz becomes a superstar, this trade is better than that option.    Plus, with Cordero, 2007 is better --- you can argue that if we had Cordero sooner, that we wouldn't be in as sad a shape as we are.

I guess we have to follow Griswald and see what happens in the offseason.  This could end up being great for the organization, or Melvin could sure screw it up royally.  Before this deal went down, I'd assume the former; looking at it now...it could go either way.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 1, 2006 2:50 PM CDT reply actions  

Imagine...
...if there were a way to parlay Lee into Tejeda.  Then, fine, trade Nelson Cruz.
"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 1, 2006 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

follow me
i shall lead ye into the heartland...corey hartland, that is.

but i also have to say (and may have said it before but it's worth repeating) that it's pretty disappointing to find the brewers in this position on august 1. i would have predicted back in march that we'd be about 5 games over .500 at the start of august - and wouldn't you know it, we'd be leading the wild card in this sorry group of teams known as the national league.

by Griswald on Aug 1, 2006 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

This just occurred to me
After Guzman, Nelson Cruz was the best prospect flipped at the deadline.

That makes me sad.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 1, 2006 3:26 PM CDT reply actions  

No
It should make you think that it wasn't quite the seller's market it was billed to be. Just because Nelson Cruz was probably the second best prospect dealt, doesn't mean he's anything more than a C+/B- prospect. Hell, even Guzman's stock has dropped a bit this year.

by BroadwayJoe22 on Aug 1, 2006 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

trade
would you trade cordero and mench for guzman?
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 1, 2006 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think we can all agree
Choose Boof.
"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 1, 2006 5:59 PM CDT reply actions  

Boof makes me think Teenwolf
and Teen Wolf makes me think Coach Finstock

"It doesn't matter how you play the game, it's whether you win or lose. And even that doesn't make all that much difference."

I think Ned Yost is channeling his inner Finstock the way he manages this team.

by thekranz on Aug 1, 2006 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wow, good call
Michael J. Fox before he sold out to The Man.
"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 1, 2006 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

In Russia ...
... Boof choose you!
Nate

by nmc on Aug 1, 2006 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Product placement
Choose Boof!
"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Aug 1, 2006 7:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

Best blocked player
I think Hart has some stiff competition with BJ Upton & Delmon Young.  Look at the detritus that Tampa has on their roster.

(Yes, I realize Upton was just called up.)

by battlekow on Aug 1, 2006 10:23 PM CDT reply actions  

fair enough
though it's arguable whether those guys are in the minors because they're blocked, or because the Rays don't want to call them up for other reasons.  Upton certainly could've been accomodated; Young I'm not so sure about.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 1, 2006 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Future Portland Trailblazers of Major League Baseball!

by BroadwayJoe22 on Aug 2, 2006 1:04 AM CDT up reply actions  

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