More Tables!

by battlekow on Jan 29, 2007 9:22 PM CST in Statistical Analysis Comment 5 comments

This comment in Jeff's positional averages post got me thinking about what this blog really needs: more tables!

Specifically, I thought tables showing how various projections stack up against last year's positional averages would be pretty nifty, so I made some. Every position player who can be reasonably expected to accrue at-bats for the Brewers next year is included, save Vinny Rottino, because he plays too many positions and doesn't hit well enough to be interesting anyway.

Notes: Gabe Gross and Kevin Mench are measured against the mean of the LF & RF averages, and Craig Counsell likewise is compared to a combination of 2B & SS. Also, for the purpose of this frivolity, I'm considering Tony Graffanino a third baseman. As for the numbers themselves, 1.00 is exactly average, 1.01 1% better than average and 0.99 1% worse. Behold:

Ryan Braun:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	1.02	0.98	1.10	1.05
ZiPS	0.95	0.93	0.96	0.95
CHONE	0.93	0.90	0.95	0.93

Brady Clark:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	1.00	1.03	0.90	0.96
ZiPS	1.01	1.09	0.85	0.95
CHONE	0.96	1.03	0.84	0.93

JD Closser:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	0.93	1.00	0.94	0.97
ZiPS	0.90	0.98	0.90	0.93
CHONE	0.90	0.99	0.91	0.94

Craig Counsell:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	0.94	1.02	0.87	0.94
ZiPS	0.91	1.02	0.83	0.91
CHONE	0.90	1.00	0.84	0.91

Johnny Estrada:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	1.05	0.99	1.02	1.01
ZiPS	1.03	0.98	0.97	0.98
CHONE	1.03	1.00	0.99	0.99

Prince Fielder:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	1.03	1.03	1.09	1.06
ZiPS	0.98	0.99	1.05	1.02
CHONE	0.97	1.00	1.02	1.02

Tony Graffanino:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	1.00	0.99	0.89	0.94
ZiPS	0.93	0.97	0.81	0.88
CHONE	0.93	0.95	0.82	0.88

Gabe Gross:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	0.95	1.02	0.97	0.99
ZiPS	0.96	0.99	0.89	0.93
CHONE	0.91	0.99	0.87	0.92

Tony Gwynn:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	0.95	0.96	0.83	0.89
ZiPS	0.91	0.93	0.75	0.83
CHONE	0.96	1.00	0.82	0.90

Bill Hall:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	1.03	1.03	1.22	1.14
ZiPS	1.00	1.00	1.16	1.09
CHONE	0.98	0.99	1.14	1.07

JJ Hardy:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	0.96	0.99	1.03	1.01
ZiPS	0.90	0.98	0.96	0.97
CHONE	0.95	1.02	1.03	1.02

Corey Hart:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	1.04	1.02	1.12	1.08
ZiPS	0.95	0.96	1.00	0.99
CHONE	0.98	0.97	0.98	0.97

Geoff Jenkins:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97
ZiPS	0.94	0.95	0.94	0.94
CHONE	0.94	0.97	0.95	0.96

Corey Koskie:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	0.94	1.00	0.99	0.99
ZiPS	0.89	0.98	0.94	0.96
CHONE	0.86	0.96	0.91	0.93

Kevin Mench:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	1.00	0.98	1.05	1.02
ZiPS	0.98	0.94	1.00	0.98
CHONE	0.93	0.92	0.94	0.93

Damian Miller:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	0.94	0.99	0.95	0.97
ZiPS	0.92	0.97	0.89	0.92
CHONE	0.90	0.97	0.89	0.93

Laynce Nix:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	0.97	0.92	1.05	0.99
ZiPS	0.93	0.89	0.96	0.93
CHONE	0.94	0.89	1.00	0.96

Mike Rivera:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	0.90	0.88	0.96	0.93
ZiPS	0.90	0.88	0.98	0.93
CHONE	0.92	0.91	1.00	0.96

Rickie Weeks:

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	1.00	1.03	1.00	1.01
ZiPS	0.95	1.03	1.06	1.04
CHONE	0.99	1.12	1.10	1.11

And by anticipated popular demand:

Bill Hall (3B):

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	1.01	1.00	1.14	1.08
ZiPS	0.97	0.96	1.08	1.03
CHONE	0.96	0.95	1.06	1.02

Rickie Weeks (CF):

Proj	AVG%	OBP%	SLG%	OPS%
PECOTA	1.02	1.07	1.07	1.07
ZiPS	0.97	1.02	1.01	1.02
CHONE	1.02	1.12	1.06	1.09

As you can see, despite Johnny Estrada's healthy batting average ratios, he's really just an average catcher (or at least is projected as such).

Only Hall, Fielder and Weeks clear 1.00 in each projection. Surprisingly, JJ Hardy emerges as probably the fourth-best hitter on the team after adjusting for position, depending on how you take Corey Hart's PECOTA projection--and we'd never have known it without tables!

0 recs | Comment 5 comments

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Comments

Why hasn't anybody commented on this?

Poor battlekow did a lot of work putting together these fancy tables and then we just let it lie here without comment?

In all seriousness, this is very interesting and informative. It quantifies the vague sense that I and a lot of others on this site seem to have had. The Brewers have a lot of guys who should hover around the league average. They have a couple of guys like Bill "Please God, Do Not Put Him In Left" Hall, Fielder, and Weeks, who should hit above average. There is no outright masher. So, if the important pieces in the lineup can stay healthy, if the starting pitching lives up to its above-average projections, and if the bullpen mess congeals into something workable, the Crew has a shot at taking the Central. Then the PR department can shut up about 1982.

I really like those PECOTA numbers on Hart. I note that PECOTA is more generous across the board, particularly for players without a long major league track record. Anybody out there better informed than me who might know what accounts for the difference?

Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.

by shooty babitt on Jan 31, 2007 10:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Good question

The tables are discussed (albeit briefly) in the "Lineups, please" diary, though pretty much just to reveal my ignorance about such things.

I was also confused about PECOTA, which says the difference between Johnny Estrada and JD Closser is minimal. That doesn't seem right.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Jan 31, 2007 11:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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