More Tables!
by battlekow on Jan 29, 2007 9:22 PM CST
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintThis comment in Jeff's positional averages post got me thinking about what this blog really needs: more tables!
Specifically, I thought tables showing how various projections stack up against last year's positional averages would be pretty nifty, so I made some. Every position player who can be reasonably expected to accrue at-bats for the Brewers next year is included, save Vinny Rottino, because he plays too many positions and doesn't hit well enough to be interesting anyway.
Notes: Gabe Gross and Kevin Mench are measured against the mean of the LF & RF averages, and Craig Counsell likewise is compared to a combination of 2B & SS. Also, for the purpose of this frivolity, I'm considering Tony Graffanino a third baseman. As for the numbers themselves, 1.00 is exactly average, 1.01 1% better than average and 0.99 1% worse. Behold:
Ryan Braun:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 1.02 | 0.98 | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| ZiPS | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.96 | 0.95 |
| CHONE | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.95 | 0.93 |
Brady Clark:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 1.00 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 0.96 |
| ZiPS | 1.01 | 1.09 | 0.85 | 0.95 |
| CHONE | 0.96 | 1.03 | 0.84 | 0.93 |
JD Closser:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| ZiPS | 0.90 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.93 |
| CHONE | 0.90 | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.94 |
Craig Counsell:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 0.94 | 1.02 | 0.87 | 0.94 |
| ZiPS | 0.91 | 1.02 | 0.83 | 0.91 |
| CHONE | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.84 | 0.91 |
Johnny Estrada:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 1.05 | 0.99 | 1.02 | 1.01 |
| ZiPS | 1.03 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.98 |
| CHONE | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
Prince Fielder:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.09 | 1.06 |
| ZiPS | 0.98 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 1.02 |
| CHONE | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
Tony Graffanino:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.89 | 0.94 |
| ZiPS | 0.93 | 0.97 | 0.81 | 0.88 |
| CHONE | 0.93 | 0.95 | 0.82 | 0.88 |
Gabe Gross:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 0.95 | 1.02 | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| ZiPS | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.89 | 0.93 |
| CHONE | 0.91 | 0.99 | 0.87 | 0.92 |
Tony Gwynn:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.83 | 0.89 |
| ZiPS | 0.91 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| CHONE | 0.96 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.90 |
Bill Hall:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.22 | 1.14 |
| ZiPS | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.09 |
| CHONE | 0.98 | 0.99 | 1.14 | 1.07 |
JJ Hardy:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 0.96 | 0.99 | 1.03 | 1.01 |
| ZiPS | 0.90 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.97 |
| CHONE | 0.95 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.02 |
Corey Hart:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.12 | 1.08 |
| ZiPS | 0.95 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| CHONE | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.97 |
Geoff Jenkins:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| ZiPS | 0.94 | 0.95 | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| CHONE | 0.94 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 0.96 |
Corey Koskie:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 0.94 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| ZiPS | 0.89 | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.96 |
| CHONE | 0.86 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.93 |
Kevin Mench:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 1.00 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 1.02 |
| ZiPS | 0.98 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 0.98 |
| CHONE | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.94 | 0.93 |
Damian Miller:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 0.94 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| ZiPS | 0.92 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.92 |
| CHONE | 0.90 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.93 |
Laynce Nix:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 0.97 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| ZiPS | 0.93 | 0.89 | 0.96 | 0.93 |
| CHONE | 0.94 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 0.96 |
Mike Rivera:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 0.90 | 0.88 | 0.96 | 0.93 |
| ZiPS | 0.90 | 0.88 | 0.98 | 0.93 |
| CHONE | 0.92 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 0.96 |
Rickie Weeks:
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 1.00 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| ZiPS | 0.95 | 1.03 | 1.06 | 1.04 |
| CHONE | 0.99 | 1.12 | 1.10 | 1.11 |
And by anticipated popular demand:
Bill Hall (3B):
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| ZiPS | 0.97 | 0.96 | 1.08 | 1.03 |
| CHONE | 0.96 | 0.95 | 1.06 | 1.02 |
Rickie Weeks (CF):
| Proj | AVG% | OBP% | SLG% | OPS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 1.02 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| ZiPS | 0.97 | 1.02 | 1.01 | 1.02 |
| CHONE | 1.02 | 1.12 | 1.06 | 1.09 |
As you can see, despite Johnny Estrada's healthy batting average ratios, he's really just an average catcher (or at least is projected as such).
Only Hall, Fielder and Weeks clear 1.00 in each projection. Surprisingly, JJ Hardy emerges as probably the fourth-best hitter on the team after adjusting for position, depending on how you take Corey Hart's PECOTA projection--and we'd never have known it without tables!
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Why hasn't anybody commented on this?
In all seriousness, this is very interesting and informative. It quantifies the vague sense that I and a lot of others on this site seem to have had. The Brewers have a lot of guys who should hover around the league average. They have a couple of guys like Bill "Please God, Do Not Put Him In Left" Hall, Fielder, and Weeks, who should hit above average. There is no outright masher. So, if the important pieces in the lineup can stay healthy, if the starting pitching lives up to its above-average projections, and if the bullpen mess congeals into something workable, the Crew has a shot at taking the Central. Then the PR department can shut up about 1982.
I really like those PECOTA numbers on Hart. I note that PECOTA is more generous across the board, particularly for players without a long major league track record. Anybody out there better informed than me who might know what accounts for the difference?
Good question
I was also confused about PECOTA, which says the difference between Johnny Estrada and JD Closser is minimal. That doesn't seem right.
The difference between Estrada & Closser
PECOTA
and for pitchers...
by Jeff Sackmann on Jan 31, 2007 3:34 PM CST up reply actions
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