Melvin in the offseason

by roguejim on Oct 5, 2007 7:46 AM CDT

The Journal Sentinel has an interesting piece on what Moustache wants to accomplish this offseason. It's worth reading the whole thing, but here are some highlights:

We're going to try to re-sign CoCo and Linebrink. I know, I know. I'm not sure we'll get either, or, if we do, if either will be worth what their contract would be. It's funny to think that other teams are raiding our bullpen.

Turnbow isn't likely to be traded. That's probably a mistake: his ERA belies the fact that he will single-handedly lose games for you, but what can you do. I'm kind of surprised he's still on the team.

Also...

Beyond addressing his bullpen, Melvin said his off-season goals included finding a way to get more innings from the starting rotation (only Jeff Suppan accumulated 200), finding "a couple of hitters" who get on base to balance out a power attack and determining if it's the right time to offer long-term deals to younger players such as Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy.

Melvin said he would also decide whether he needs to make a change at catcher, where Johnny Estrada had a poor year behind the plate (throwing out 7.6% of runners) and an average one with the bat (.278, 10 HRs, 54 RBI).

In that respect, the starting rotation is poorer than advertised: we only had 33 starts that lasted 7 innings or more, about half of what we had in 2006.

It also sounds like the plan is to keep Hall in centerfield, and I wouldn't count on Ben Sheets going anywhere, trainer's room notwithstanding.

He also gave a vote of confidence for Ned, but this quote was interesting:

"There are areas Ned needs to improve at. He knows that. I had dinner with him (Tuesday night) and Ned will admit to a number of places where he made mistakes with his management of the bullpen.

"This is the first legitimate year we contended to the point where we really had a shot. So Ned is experiencing this for the first time, too. You can get better. If he doesn't, sometimes you suffer the consequences."

Despite the earth-shattering Kaboom coming from Jeff anytime now, I take some comfort that Moustache knows (and Ned knows) that Yost screwed up on more than one occasion. I'm concerned with how much of a learning curve we're giving him; still, I get the impression that if we see another mismanaged year like 2007, we'll have a new manager in 2009.

With the exception of improving infield defense (which sounds like a practice, practice, practice solution to me), I think he covered all of the complaints we usually gripe about here. It's a pretty comprhensive list. Having said that, though...

His couple of OBP hitter to balance out our offense? Assuming you can find them, where are they going to play? If Hall is staying in centerfield, then the only two spots with less-than-satisfactory starters is left field and catcher. Jinxie isn't an OBP kind of guy, so maybe this is a hint that he isn't being re-signed. Otherwise, we're talking about (a) trading some of our current starters, or (b) backups/part-time players, which isn't going to do much to balance out our offense when they're not full-time.

Getting a replacement for Estrada will be tough, I think. His BA is good enough where you can probably fool some teams into a trade, but we don't have a catcher waiting in the wings. (I believe Jake Taylor is also a free agent.) Rottino/Rivera?

I think CoCo would be OK coming back, but some other team (probaby the Mets) is going to spend a fortune on him. I don't know if Linebrink would want to come back. If CoCo goes, then we'll need a new closer. (Linebrink?)

We've shown no ability, in several years, to turn Turnbow into a quasi-reliable pitcher. Seriously, it's time to trade him.

Man, our pitching is a mess, especially if you take out CoCo and Linebrink (who both finished in the top three in ERA on our team). First, if the 2008 rotation is Sheets/Suppan/YoGa/Villanueva/Bush, then we're talking all righthanders. Without CoCo and Linebrink, the relievers with an ERA less than 4.5 are Shouse, Son of Clung!, Stetter, Wise, and Parra. The best thing for the bullpen would be to get the starters to last longer into games, preferably if Capuano is one of those starters; then again, I think there'd be an agrarian revolt at Miller Park if we make another Suppan-like signing. It'll be interesting to see how Nedgar et al. sort through the plethora of crappy pitchers, and see who gets kicked to the curb.

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Great post

John Sickels over at minorleagueball.com has a "You be the GM" edition with the Brewers, and it's fun to put in our 2 pennies' worth. This seems a good thread for us to speculate what Melvin will get done this offseason.

I once thought Coco would get BJ Ryan money, but now in this market I think Linebrink may get near that ($8-10M/yr) to close for somebody and Coco will definitely be one of the highest paid pitchers in the game. But if we want to contend I think we have to resign 1 of the 2.

I disagree with roguejim in that I think Turnbow is one of the more effective setup men in the game. His .183 BAA and 10.7 K/9 are exactly what we need in our pen. He's relatively cheap in this market. And if we lose both Coco and Linebrink meet our new closer ;).

That article gives me great optimism for next year because it's obvious Melvin knows what he's doing. He recognizes the flaws of the team and he knows he needs a closer and better pen management. I look for him to give a bank-breaking offer to Coco and it'll still be less than what another team gives him. I also suspect he'll make another trade to get rid of what's left in our farm system for bullpen or defensive help. Let's hope Z has another great draft next year with all our compensatory picks!

by balldeagle on Oct 5, 2007 8:42 AM CDT 0 recs

Brave New World.

For the first time in my memory, we have the unique combination of an open-wallet owner, smart/honest management, and a team on the brink of being perennial contenders.

This means that for the first time (in my memory) we are actually in a position to "get rid of what's left in our farm system" in order to get us over the hump, which is an exciting position to be in regardless of whether or not we want actually want to do that. Still, we might be one of the teams in the league where a few extra wins means a lot of extra money (playoff revenue).

But who are these "couple of OBP guys" that he has his eyes on? It seems to me that simply having Gabe Gross take over for Jenkins could provide a boost of 60-70 OBP points in-house, while saving about $8mm. I really think we could bat Gross second against RHP and see an .850 OPS from him. Put that money towards CoCo.

I'm kind of with balldeagle on the Turnbow thing. He's sporadic, but more often than not he gets the job done, and at any rate he's cheap.

As much as I like to see big moves, I'm just not sure what we can do to improve ourselves that much. The bullpen is a definite issue, but that is more likely to be solved by "smaller" moves than anything major. In fact, I'd like to see Steve Bray get a real shot as a closer or set-up guy next year, but we probably have some money to work with, too. Thus, relievers available via free agency this off-season:

Scot Shields
David Riske (team option)
Ron Mahay
J.C. Romero
Hitoki Iwase (Japan)
Octavio Dotel (player option)
Jorge Julio
Kerry Wood
Al Reyes (team option)
Masahide Kobayashi (Japan)
LaTroy Hawkins
Francisco Cordero
Scott Linebrink

It looks to me like there are a couple of guys we might look into, depending on the price. Personally, the most interesting name here is Iwase, who is probably the best relief pitcher in the Nippon Pros, and is a lefty to boot. Kobayashi is also very good. I'd much rather go after one of these guys than mess around with Linebrink.

As far as catchers: Jorge Posada? ;-)

"Cover your flesh." - Bill Haverchuck

by baumann on Oct 6, 2007 1:59 PM CDT 0 recs

Couple things

Shields isn't going to be a free agent- he signed an extension in March. And from what I've seen of Julio and Hawkins, I'm thinking that I'd have to veto those before they came to fruition.

"Shabbat shalom, motherfuckers" - Ryan Braun

by The Prospector on Oct 7, 2007 3:47 PM CDT up 0 recs

Do you guys think that Jason Bay...

might be available because of his down season? I know teams dont like to trade inside the division; but i was wondering what you guys think...

Asked what was said during the phone conversation with LaRussa, Yost said, "That falls under 'nobody's business" right; except all brewer fans who wanted a win!

by Jamie in LA on Oct 6, 2007 2:39 PM CDT 0 recs

By the Bay.

I've heard a trade rumor about Bay going to MIN for Matt Garza. Not sure how substantial that is. Which means he's available in theory at least.

As for the Crew, I think it would be worth kicking the tires. To imagine a 3-4-5 of some mix of Bay, Braun, and Fielder is to imagine success. The fact that the Pirates want Garza in return from the Twins means we'd be looking at Villanueva and then some.

"Cover your flesh." - Bill Haverchuck

by baumann on Oct 6, 2007 3:10 PM CDT 0 recs

cool thanks.

Asked what was said during the phone conversation with LaRussa, Yost said, "That falls under 'nobody's business" right; except all brewer fans who wanted a win!

by Jamie in LA on Oct 6, 2007 5:06 PM CDT up 0 recs

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