Next Move
It's not official, but it looks like Eric Gagne is joining the Brewers on a one-year deal. That means the bullpen looks like this, roughly in depth chart order:
- Gagne
- Riske
- Turnbow
- Torres
- Shouse
- Wise
- Mota
That's pretty cool. The downside is that, if Gagne is on a one-year, $10MM deal, the budget is basically gone. Assuming that we non-tender Mench, my salary projection edges up to $75MM with Gagne and Torres. In other words, if we're going to make another move (and you know we will), it probably won't be on the free-agent market. Or, if it is, it'll be accompanied with some kind of salary dump, like trading Capuano for prospects.
The one thing staring us in the face right now is that we've got too much pitching. I know, I know, you can never have too much pitching, but literally, we have more guys who pitch than there is room for on the MLB roster. Not counting Villanueva and Parra, we have six starters. And Villanueva, at least, deserves a spot on the opening day roster, and there may not be one for him.
As I see it, we have three main options to solve this problem. I think that we probably kill two birds (or more) with one stone, trading a pitcher and acquiring a 3B/LF/CF in the same deal. Here are the choices:
- Most likely: trade Capuano (or maybe Bush or Vargas) for a stopgap. It's not a great match, but I'm thinking something like Capuano for Brandon Inge, or some slightly bigger deal involving Joe Crede. This type of deal wouldn't make a huge impact; it would basically give us a starter at that last position and clear up the logjam.
- Next most likely: trade Villanueva for an equally young (and low-service time) position player. One tempting target is Josh Hamilton, who may become available from the Reds. This is the one sort of deal in which I'd be willing to deal Villy -- we'd have to get someone with similar service time.
- Least likely: trade Sheets. The Mariners have been discussed as a destination, and between Jeff Clement (nearly ready C) and outfielders Adam Jones and Wladimir Balentien, they have the ammo to get a deal done. Both of those outfielders are at least plausible center fielders, which means that, if LaPorta becomes ready by Opening Day 2009, that guy slides over to center, LaPorta takes over in left, and Hall (or Weeks or Hardy, I suppose) gets traded.
I haven't decided how I feel about the Gagne signing yet, but it is fun to see a new, promising '08 team take shape, even if all we have in left field right now is LaGrynn.
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27 comments
Comments
Budget
by BroadwayJoe22 on Dec 8, 2007 3:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I hope they don't get Gagne...
Yes, drop Wise. Trade Cappy & Sheeter...
Get Joe Crede if possible. Maybe for Billy?
Move TGJr. to an everyday spot.
BUT I really, really, like our Pen... It'll be a strength for us this season.
by CATALYST on Dec 8, 2007 3:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking about this
by TheJay on Dec 8, 2007 4:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
we'd be lucky
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 8, 2007 4:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good thinking!
by roguejim on Dec 8, 2007 9:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
by TheJay on Dec 8, 2007 9:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
- Riske
- Turnbow
- Torres
- Shouse
- Wise
- Mota
by TheJay on Dec 8, 2007 4:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
A little more
Add in Gagne, and it's an expensive pen...
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 8, 2007 4:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
by TheJay on Dec 8, 2007 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
certainly true.
-riske
-bow
-torres
-shouse
-wise
-parra
-villanueva
(feel free to substitute for the last two)
That's under $14MM for seven guys, I think. No clear closer, but a very solid group, correctly deployed. two lefties, even!
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 8, 2007 4:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i cant wait till...
by Jamie in LA on Dec 8, 2007 5:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How do you not see villanueva as a starter
I thought it was almost a given after the way Villanueva finished the year he would be one of the 5 starters.
I pictured the starting 5 as
1.Sheets
2 Yo
3 Suppan
4 Villanueva
5 Bush/Cappy/Vargas/Parra(winner of a battle royal no count out submission match)
If you have Villanueva in the pen who is our number 4 starter?
by WSB Chris on Dec 8, 2007 8:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
one more of bush/cappy/vargas
Now, I should say, I think the best starter should be in the starting rotation, regardless of who is a veteran starter or who has experience in the bullpen. But that's not always the way teams make decisions. The fact that Carlos had a good run in the bullpen and looked like a potential set-up guy for a while means that, if it comes down to "what are we going to do with villy and vargas?" yost might default to vargas in the rotation just because vargas "is" a starter, and villy in the pen because we know hee could be good at it.
that said, I'd be shocked if at least one of cappy/bush/vargas, and also remember that starters inevitably get hurt. if villy starts in the pen, he might still get 20 starts.
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 8, 2007 10:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree only one of them will stay.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 9, 2007 9:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
all else equal, Bush is the best...
IOW, I'd be happy to part with Bush in the right deal, and I'm sure that Melvin is listening to offers for all three (and perhaps others).
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 9, 2007 9:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I for one
by craigholl on Dec 9, 2007 10:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i'd be afraid
Honestly, we'd deserve that.
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 9, 2007 10:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Vargas should b a Pirate
by roguejim on Dec 10, 2007 12:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
brilliant!
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 10, 2007 11:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
re: three options.
just kidding. NL Champs.
in that case, though, I think the Sheets option is much less likely, even though it is the most attractive. any one of Clement, Jones, or Balentien would be a great addition to the club, especially the first two, because they play premium positions at which we could really use a future star. I think Adam Jones is probably my favorite prospect in baseball right now, so maybe I'm biased. the reason that i think this is the best option: because it acknowledges that we could be a force for years to come, not just in 2008-09. i think Jones will be an impact player starting in 2008 and will only get better. i'd trade Sheets straight up for him, or even throw in a bullpen arm. another possible trade target for Sheets in the Dodgers, which would be hard to mess up because it would involve guys like Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Andy LaRoche, Chad Billingsley, etc.
so Jeff: you've said which option you think is most likely, but which would you prefer they pursue?
by baumann on Dec 8, 2007 11:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I really like Sheets to the M's too
But the more I think about it, the less likely the Sheets trade becomes. And the reason why is weird -- Doug is at payroll now (I would guess, assuming Mark A didn't approve a huge increase), and if we traded Sheets for youngsters to fill LF, we'd go WAY under payroll with no reason to go back up. Sheets for Clement/Jones or whatever would push us back to $65MM and fill the 3B/LF gap, meaning that the most we could spend money is on another backup IF or MAYBE a backup OF (Lofton to platoon with new acquisition?). In other words, it would be tough, short another set of weird deals, to get payroll back above $70MM.
I really doubt Melvin is enough of a gambler to roll the dice on youngsters in the year we're going for it, especially since it would do such weird things to the payroll, even though, if Mark A was sabr-savvy as well as controlling the purse strings, I have to think he'd be mighty tempted to put the same quality of team on the field (and make the same team better for 09 and beyond, way better) while saving a cool ten mil. That's a really big war chest for July.
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 8, 2007 11:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Are we asking too much?
Well, maybe someone like Ethier. But I don't see the multi-prospect hauls that have been bandied about.
by roguejim on Dec 9, 2007 12:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
no way
And I think we should be approaching a Sheets trade similar to how the Marlins approached the Cabrera deal -- you meet our demands, or we keep him. Worst case scenario? We keep him, and he pitches games 1 and 5 of the world series, and then we get draft picks.
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 9, 2007 9:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
by baumann on Dec 9, 2007 11:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I really like that plan.
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 9, 2007 12:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
the other two
bringing in Josh Hamilton is something I like quite a bit, actually, but it looks like the Reds will make a move for Bedard, so they might not need someone like Cappy. Would we trade intra-division? I think the Reds are a better team than STL heading in to 2008. They're probably the 3rd place team in the Central right now.
by baumann on Dec 9, 2007 4:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think somebody like Crede
At this point, we don't need an offensive force in that last spot. It'd be nice, but we'll score plenty of runs. Frankly, if you convinced me that, say, Abraham Nunez was the best third-base defender in baseball, I'd be in favor of getting him. That said, I'm wondering (I'll make a post out of this soon, I think) whether making Counsell the starter at third is a decent idea. We know he can pick it.
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 9, 2007 9:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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