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Next Move

It's not official, but it looks like Eric Gagne is joining the Brewers on a one-year deal.  That means the bullpen looks like this, roughly in depth chart order:

  • Gagne
  • Riske
  • Turnbow
  • Torres
  • Shouse
  • Wise
  • Mota
That, of course, leaves a ton of guys out and, amazingly, is more than half new acquisitions.  There's no room for lefties Parra, Stetter, or Choate, or McClung, or any starters who don't make the rotation.

That's pretty cool.  The downside is that, if Gagne is on a one-year, $10MM deal, the budget is basically gone.  Assuming that we non-tender Mench, my salary projection edges up to $75MM with Gagne and Torres.  In other words, if we're going to make another move (and you know we will), it probably won't be on the free-agent market.  Or, if it is, it'll be accompanied with some kind of salary dump, like trading Capuano for prospects.

The one thing staring us in the face right now is that we've got too much pitching.  I know, I know, you can never have too much pitching, but literally, we have more guys who pitch than there is room for on the MLB roster.  Not counting Villanueva and Parra, we have six starters.  And Villanueva, at least, deserves a spot on the opening day roster, and there may not be one for him.  

As I see it, we have three main options to solve this problem.  I think that we probably kill two birds (or more) with one stone, trading a pitcher and acquiring a 3B/LF/CF in the same deal.  Here are the choices:

  1. Most likely: trade Capuano (or maybe Bush or Vargas) for a stopgap.  It's not a great match, but I'm thinking something like Capuano for Brandon Inge, or some slightly bigger deal involving Joe Crede.  This type of deal wouldn't make a huge impact; it would basically give us a starter at that last position and clear up the logjam.

  2. Next most likely: trade Villanueva for an equally young (and low-service time) position player.  One tempting target is Josh Hamilton, who may become available from the Reds.  This is the one sort of deal in which I'd be willing to deal Villy -- we'd have to get someone with similar service time.

  3. Least likely: trade Sheets.  The Mariners have been discussed as a destination, and between Jeff Clement (nearly ready C) and outfielders Adam Jones and Wladimir Balentien, they have the ammo to get a deal done.  Both of those outfielders are at least plausible center fielders, which means that, if LaPorta becomes ready by Opening Day 2009, that guy slides over to center, LaPorta takes over in left, and Hall (or Weeks or Hardy, I suppose) gets traded.
If the Sheets scenario happens, it's not going to happen soon -- the "lesser" pitchers like Sheets and Bedard probably won't be seriously in play until Johan Santana gets traded.  For obvious reasons, the likely suitors for those pitchers will be the same.

I haven't decided how I feel about the Gagne signing yet, but it is fun to see a new, promising '08 team take shape, even if all we have in left field right now is LaGrynn.

0 recs  |  Comment 27 comments

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Budget
They'll probably clear up some cash by non-tendering Wise.

by BroadwayJoe22 on Dec 8, 2007 3:28 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I hope they don't get Gagne...
But if they do...

Yes, drop Wise. Trade Cappy & Sheeter...

Get Joe Crede if possible. Maybe for Billy?

Move TGJr. to an everyday spot.


BUT I really, really, like our Pen... It'll be a strength for us this season.

TED IS TO NED WHAT CHENEY IS TO BUSH.

by CATALYST on Dec 8, 2007 3:58 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking about this
McClung and Aquino are both out of options, I believe, so they might end up as part of a trade package since there's no spot for them in the pen.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Dec 8, 2007 4:10 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

we'd be lucky
to get anything for either one ... maybe we could swap them to the Rats for Salas and Roberts :).
Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 8, 2007 4:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Good thinking!
I heard Salas and Roberts are pretty good!  Though they might rather retire than play for the Brewers.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Dec 8, 2007 9:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
Who does Torres think he is? Curt Flood?
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Dec 8, 2007 9:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm
  • Riske
  • Turnbow
  • Torres
  • Shouse
  • Wise
  • Mota
All six of those guys combined make roughly as much as Francisco Cordero now does per year, right?
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Dec 8, 2007 4:19 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

A little more
Riske, Bow, Torres, and Mota are all $3MM or above, and Wise + Shouse is probably $3MM or so.  So a total of $15MM, maybe a shade less.

Add in Gagne, and it's an expensive pen...

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 8, 2007 4:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
I guess it's just an interesting case study of how good a bullpen you can get for the same amount as a "premium closer."
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Dec 8, 2007 4:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

certainly true.
consider this one:

-riske
-bow
-torres
-shouse
-wise
-parra
-villanueva

(feel free to substitute for the last two)

That's under $14MM for seven guys, I think.  No clear closer, but a very solid group, correctly deployed.  two lefties, even!

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 8, 2007 4:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i cant wait till...
yost orders Gagne to throw at Miguel Cabrera in game seven of the world series; presumably a "must win" game!
Jamie is a Softball Champion!

by Jamie in LA on Dec 8, 2007 5:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How do you not see villanueva as a starter
Question Jeff

I thought it was almost a given after the way Villanueva finished the year he would be one of the 5 starters.

I pictured the starting 5 as

1.Sheets
2 Yo
3 Suppan
4 Villanueva
5 Bush/Cappy/Vargas/Parra(winner of a battle royal no count out submission match)

If you have Villanueva in the pen who is our number 4 starter?

My God Yost is coming back the 2008 season is already a disaster and they have not thrown a pitch yet. ;)

by WSB Chris on Dec 8, 2007 8:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

one more of bush/cappy/vargas
No way that the team keeps more than one of Bush/Cappy/Vargas as a reliever.  I'd be a little surprised if even one of those guys goes to the pen.

Now, I should say, I think the best starter should be in the starting rotation, regardless of who is a veteran starter or who has experience in the bullpen.  But that's not always the way teams make decisions.  The fact that Carlos had a good run in the bullpen and looked like a potential set-up guy for a while means that, if it comes down to "what are we going to do with villy and vargas?" yost might default to vargas in the rotation just because vargas "is" a starter, and villy in the pen because we know hee could be good at it.

that said, I'd be shocked if at least one of cappy/bush/vargas, and also remember that starters inevitably get hurt.  if villy starts in the pen, he might still get 20 starts.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 8, 2007 10:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree only one of them will stay.
But it's got to be Bush.  The guy east innings better than anyone else on the roster and he's shown some effectiveness out of the pen.  It's hard for me to imagine Capuano doing the same with the same opportunity.  

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 9, 2007 9:15 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

all else equal, Bush is the best...
but when you're talking about trades, remember that every OTHER team knows Bush is best, too.  We could get something valuable for Bush, whereas Capuano is probably worth a decent reliever or middling regular, while Vargas is probably worth Kevin Roberts and Marino Salas.

IOW, I'd be happy to part with Bush in the right deal, and I'm sure that Melvin is listening to offers for all three (and perhaps others).

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 9, 2007 9:25 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I for one
Would be happy to get Roberts and Salas for Vargas.  
"The ship feels like it's sinking, but our guys are in the boat, pushing the water out." - Ned Yost, 8/28/2007

by craigholl on Dec 9, 2007 10:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i'd be afraid
that every time Vargas pitched for the Pirates against us, he'd give up 5 runs in 5.1 IP, and then the Rats would win.

Honestly, we'd deserve that.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 9, 2007 10:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Vargas should b a Pirate
he has "arg" right in the middle of his name.  Arg!
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Dec 10, 2007 12:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

brilliant!
Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 10, 2007 11:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

re: three options.
paying $25mm for a bullpen, most of it acquired this off-season, that means we're making a run, right?

just kidding.  NL Champs.

in that case, though, I think the Sheets option is much less likely, even though it is the most attractive.  any one of Clement, Jones, or Balentien would be a great addition to the club, especially the first two, because they play premium positions at which we could really use a future star.  I think Adam Jones is probably my favorite prospect in baseball right now, so maybe I'm biased.  the reason that i think this is the best option: because it acknowledges that we could be a force for years to come, not just in 2008-09.  i think Jones will be an impact player starting in 2008 and will only get better.  i'd trade Sheets straight up for him, or even throw in a bullpen arm.  another possible trade target for Sheets in the Dodgers, which would be hard to mess up because it would involve guys like Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Andy LaRoche, Chad Billingsley, etc.

so Jeff: you've said which option you think is most likely, but which would you prefer they pursue?  

"Cover your flesh." - Bill Haverchuck

by baumann on Dec 8, 2007 11:08 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I really like Sheets to the M's too
Judging from the packages being thrown around for Santana, I think we could DEFINITELY get Balentien plus Clement, maybe swapping in Jones for Balentien.  

But the more I think about it, the less likely the Sheets trade becomes.  And the reason why is weird -- Doug is at payroll now (I would guess, assuming Mark A didn't approve a huge increase), and if we traded Sheets for youngsters to fill LF, we'd go WAY under payroll with no reason to go back up.  Sheets for Clement/Jones or whatever would push us back to $65MM and fill the 3B/LF gap, meaning that the most we could spend money is on another backup IF or MAYBE a backup OF (Lofton to platoon with new acquisition?).  In other words, it would be tough, short another set of weird deals, to get payroll back above $70MM.

I really doubt Melvin is enough of a gambler to roll the dice on youngsters in the year we're going for it, especially since it would do such weird things to the payroll, even though, if Mark A was sabr-savvy as well as controlling the purse strings, I have to think he'd be mighty tempted to put the same quality of team on the field (and make the same team better for 09 and beyond, way better) while saving a cool ten mil.  That's a really big war chest for July.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 8, 2007 11:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Are we asking too much?
I don't see anyone giving us a top prospect for a one-year rental of an injury-riddled pitcher making $11 million.

Well, maybe someone like Ethier.  But I don't see the multi-prospect hauls that have been bandied about.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Dec 9, 2007 12:33 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

no way
injury-riddled, yes, but top 5 starter if healthy.  I'm sure that such a deal would require a lot of poring over medical records, but if the other team thought it was a good risk, he should be worth quite a bit more than Ethier.

And I think we should be approaching a Sheets trade similar to how the Marlins approached the Cabrera deal -- you meet our demands, or we keep him.  Worst case scenario?  We keep him, and he pitches games 1 and 5 of the world series, and then we get draft picks.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 9, 2007 9:28 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

thanks
for the opinion, Jeff.  sometimes i get what i think are good ideas and then worry that i'm way out of line.  Clement/Jones would be so amazing for this club. if this would happen, I think Jones plays LF this year and becomes the CF in 2009, when we move Bill Hall in a trade to make room for LaPorta.  that could be a hell of an OF . . . goods ideas; wishful thinking(?).
"Cover your flesh." - Bill Haverchuck

by baumann on Dec 9, 2007 11:26 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I really like that plan.
It's cool that having Santana and Cabrera have forced teams to realize that their top prospects are not at all untouchable, which probably means it'll be easier to pry somebody like Jones or Clement away in a Sheets deal.
Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 9, 2007 12:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the other two
options i don't like because they provide marginal upgrades at best.  crede's career obp is a joke, and coming back from back injuries, can we expect him to be as nimble and strong as he once might have been at the hot corner?  i personally think that Gross will out-perform someone like Crede in an equal # of PAs.  the same might be true for Inge, though he is an amazing fielder and is less risk in terms of injury.  

bringing in Josh Hamilton is something I like quite a bit, actually, but it looks like the Reds will make a move for Bedard, so they might not need someone like Cappy.  Would we trade intra-division?  I think the Reds are a better team than STL heading in to 2008.  They're probably the 3rd place team in the Central right now.  

"Cover your flesh." - Bill Haverchuck

by baumann on Dec 9, 2007 4:41 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think somebody like Crede
is more of a move for defense.  If we assume that Braun will continue to be bad at third but would be average-ish in left (I know, two big assumptions), the important diff between Crede and Gross is their defense, not their offense.  That could be 2-3 wins right there.

At this point, we don't need an offensive force in that last spot.  It'd be nice, but we'll score plenty of runs.  Frankly, if you convinced me that, say, Abraham Nunez was the best third-base defender in baseball, I'd be in favor of getting him.  That said, I'm wondering (I'll make a post out of this soon, I think) whether making Counsell the starter at third is a decent idea.  We know he can pick it.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 9, 2007 9:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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