Jeff Suppan is Awesome
It seems fitting that if the Cardinals are going to play so soon after their loss, it isn't a bunch of cold, unfeeling bastards (read: Cubs) who beat them handily. I can't imagine it was easy for Suppan to go out there tonight, but he showed up big time.
For those of you keeping score at home, Suppan is now 4-2 in six starts, he's averaged more than seven innings per outing, and his ERA is down to 2.55. He's still not dominating, nor will he ever, but with every start he shutting up a few more of the pre-season doubters. It helps that our defense is so much stronger than it was last year, but a lot of better one for the Brewers.
Now, on a less serious note, which of the following was weirder:
- Kevin Mench stole third off of Yadi Molina
- Kevin Mench tripled
- Kevin Mench could still walk after tripling and stealing a base
Another hot topic: while it's silly to track our run differential on a daily basis, it's worth noting that we're now back in the plus column. Still means we're way outperforming our pythag, but a little less so than if we had squeaked this one out. The longer we're outperforming, of course, the less it matters: playoff spots don't go to the team with the biggest run differentials, but the ones with the most wins. And right now, we're running away with that category.
Among his many incoherent (and unfortunately coherent, but still stupid) ramblings, Rick Sutcliffe claimed that Jeff Suppan was turning into a Greg Maddux-like pitcher. That seems a little optimistic, but it's interesting to note that Suppan had a 2.39 ERA in the second half last year. That means he's been dominant for four straight regular season months now. That could be a fluke, or it could mean he really is "learning how to pitch" or something. One of baseball-reference's incredibly awesome new features is the "last 365 days" split, and Suppan looks pretty good in that department. I'm sure I'll be following that one throughout the season.
That's a wrap on April, folks. I don't think I could've scripted a better one for the Brewers. Tomorrow, I'll take a closer look at how everybody performed in the first month, but it doesn't take a closer look to know that this was one of the best months of Brewers baseball in decades.
Update [2007-5-1 8:24:35 by Jeff]: Now that baseball-reference is updated through last night's games, I just checked to see how Suppan's "last 365 days" split looked after last night's game. His ERA is down to 3.66 in that time. I also calculated his FIP, which is 4.42. The knock on Suppan was that he relies a lot on his defense, and he got a bonus from standing in front of the Cardinals infield.
He certainly is outperforming his FIP, but even if he doesn't--even if the Brewers turn out to be exactly an average infield--that's still a pretty solid number. And I suspect that some of Suppan's ERA/FIP advantage is due to something he does, rather than a defense thing. One more thing: Supp's ERA in the postseason last year was about 2.50, just like his ERA is this year. That's another 25 innings of sample (against good teams!) that makes him look far better than the universally-applied "league average innings eater" tag would suggest.
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18 comments
Comments
SOUP!
I felt he was the best pitcher to be got and still feel that way)Zito excluded...but..LOL). If he has truly learned how to pitch like Maddux, Cy Young baby.
Also important, 25 doubles in a row and 16-9!! Not in that order. PLus, only one game away from another series!
by iluvlamp on Apr 30, 2007 9:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
On a Side Note
Hopefully we have a lot more months like April. Go Crew!
by captainmurphey on Apr 30, 2007 11:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Just think
by Grinder12000 on May 1, 2007 6:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
antsy for braun
by Griswald on May 1, 2007 6:25 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
especially
by Jeff Sackmann on May 1, 2007 6:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"the hole"
by ESK on May 1, 2007 6:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Braun
by jackie t on May 1, 2007 8:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would disagree
And for god sakes trade Mench while there is still some worth to him. Sell High Buy Low
by kjbsam on May 1, 2007 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would we trade Mench?
Who's your RH bat coming off the bench to PH if we don't have Mench? Counsell and Miller? Ugh. Like him or not, Mench serves a number of useful roles. He's the only RH half of a platoon for Jenkins, he's a cushion for injury risk, and he's and he's the only RH bench bat we have with power. If Jenkins were to go, Gross at least fills in his piece of the puzzle. Not so with Mench.
Is he going to hit .340 all year? Clearly not. Even so, he's still incredibly useful, and that remains true even if he reverts to his .800 career OPS.
by jackie t on May 1, 2007 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's true
If you want to break up Menchkins, though, then the Jenkins half is the half that has to go. Gross should be able to put up Jinxie-type numbers in his part of the platoon, and for much less salary. As Jackie says, we really don't have much of a replacement for the Mench half of the platoon, nor for his bat on the bench when Jinxie plays.
by roguejim on May 1, 2007 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Letting the Jenkamench rest
As per Braun and our "gaping hole at 3rd base". As many other said, usually teams have one or two positions that aren't "hitters" and usually defensive positions. Counsell and Graffy have been serviceable and at the very least CLUTCH hitting this year, and steady with the glove. As long as we are winning, lets let Braun gain more and more confidence down in AAA, no use bringing him up too early only to squash his confidence. Anyone remember Ben Hendrickson and a certain Dana Eveland last year??? (I know pitching is different but it still holds true with domination at AAA and sucking in the Bigs)
by Burt Doyle on May 1, 2007 11:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
burt doyle.
I've been saying this since day one.
I missed that, but i believe you, so props to you on identifying jenkins and mench as stellar outfielders. I think Yost has done a great(!) job with the trio of OFs. Yes, Jenkins has hit against LHP and Mench has had ABs against RHP and they've both been not good, but, those ABs seemed to me to be low leverage. For the sake of the franchise Hart is going to need to take a commanding lead in playing time by the end of the year. It's working pretty good so far though. Hart will be better than both of these guys, and can play everyday. Gross can step into the role Jenkins is playing right now and the brewers lose nothing. It's a good problem to have.
As per Braun and our "gaping hole at 3rd base".
I don't see the gaping hole quote, anywhere. I'm assuming suggesting the production at 3b is adequate? It's not.
After Hall, Counsell and Graffy are 2 and 3 for least clutch. Braun's time is near (6/18), no need to put up with suckitude at 3b until we start losing. That's like leaving a pitcher in the game until they implode and blow the game. Braun's making AAA pitching look foolish (1.106 OPS), that doesn't help his development. His throwing errors are mental, and no amount of AAA baseball is going to ease the transition to the Majors.
by jacob on May 1, 2007 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
6/8
should read 6/8
by jacob on May 1, 2007 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're assuming he's our AL DH?
by Jeff Sackmann on May 1, 2007 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i missed the thread response to my comment
Was/is Braun guaranteed to be better offensively than the 3B beast? I don't know, was/is Braun considered head and shoulders ahead of Alex Gordon? Even young guys like Wright and Zimmerman (who when he was drafted ahead of Braun WAS considered head and shoulders better) are struggling.
Gordon:.173 avg .296 slugging
Wright:.244/.311
Zimmerman:.236/.327
Is the assumed drop off in defense worth the possibility of poor offensive production? And how long can a surging team like Milwaukee put up with a struggling youngster (in the unlikely scenario that he struggles)
by ESK on May 1, 2007 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defense
While our errors are down our Defensive effiency this year is actually worse then last year, 0.683 compared to 0.694. This may be low because Hall is getting used to center but I don't know how much of an effect that will have. In fact, the only two teams in the NL that have a lower DE are the rockies and the marlins who both play in large parks.
by dixieflatline on May 1, 2007 11:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
every time
by ESK on May 1, 2007 7:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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