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Jeff Suppan is Awesome

It seems fitting that if the Cardinals are going to play so soon after their loss, it isn't a bunch of cold, unfeeling bastards (read: Cubs) who beat them handily.  I can't imagine it was easy for Suppan to go out there tonight, but he showed up big time.

For those of you keeping score at home, Suppan is now 4-2 in six starts, he's averaged more than seven innings per outing, and his ERA is down to 2.55.  He's still not dominating, nor will he ever, but with every start he shutting up a few more of the pre-season doubters.  It helps that our defense is so much stronger than it was last year, but a lot of better one for the Brewers.

Now, on a less serious note, which of the following was weirder:

  • Kevin Mench stole third off of Yadi Molina
  • Kevin Mench tripled
  • Kevin Mench could still walk after tripling and stealing a base
One more game like this, and Head is going to be a bona fide fan favorite once again. Couple that with Geoff Jenkins's excellent play in left field, and I might just shut up about Corey Hart's playing time for a day or two. (Key word: might.)

Another hot topic: while it's silly to track our run differential on a daily basis, it's worth noting that we're now back in the plus column. Still means we're way outperforming our pythag, but a little less so than if we had squeaked this one out. The longer we're outperforming, of course, the less it matters: playoff spots don't go to the team with the biggest run differentials, but the ones with the most wins. And right now, we're running away with that category.

Among his many incoherent (and unfortunately coherent, but still stupid) ramblings, Rick Sutcliffe claimed that Jeff Suppan was turning into a Greg Maddux-like pitcher. That seems a little optimistic, but it's interesting to note that Suppan had a 2.39 ERA in the second half last year. That means he's been dominant for four straight regular season months now. That could be a fluke, or it could mean he really is "learning how to pitch" or something. One of baseball-reference's incredibly awesome new features is the "last 365 days" split, and Suppan looks pretty good in that department. I'm sure I'll be following that one throughout the season.

That's a wrap on April, folks. I don't think I could've scripted a better one for the Brewers. Tomorrow, I'll take a closer look at how everybody performed in the first month, but it doesn't take a closer look to know that this was one of the best months of Brewers baseball in decades.

Update [2007-5-1 8:24:35 by Jeff]: Now that baseball-reference is updated through last night's games, I just checked to see how Suppan's "last 365 days" split looked after last night's game. His ERA is down to 3.66 in that time. I also calculated his FIP, which is 4.42. The knock on Suppan was that he relies a lot on his defense, and he got a bonus from standing in front of the Cardinals infield.

He certainly is outperforming his FIP, but even if he doesn't--even if the Brewers turn out to be exactly an average infield--that's still a pretty solid number. And I suspect that some of Suppan's ERA/FIP advantage is due to something he does, rather than a defense thing. One more thing: Supp's ERA in the postseason last year was about 2.50, just like his ERA is this year. That's another 25 innings of sample (against good teams!) that makes him look far better than the universally-applied "league average innings eater" tag would suggest.

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SOUP!
"He's still not dominating, nor will he ever, but with every start he shutting up a few more of the pre-season doubters."

I felt he was the best pitcher to be got and still feel that way)Zito excluded...but..LOL). If he has truly learned how to pitch like Maddux, Cy Young baby.

Also important, 25 doubles in a row and 16-9!! Not in that order. PLus, only one game away from another series!

by iluvlamp on Apr 30, 2007 9:43 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

On a Side Note
How lucky are we to have a guy like Gallardo in AAA, just waiting to join this already stellar big league club.  7 innings, 9 ks tonight.....AND he hit a homerun!

Hopefully we have a lot more months like April.  Go Crew!

This simutax makes me feel like a panda pooped a rainbow in my brain!

by captainmurphey on Apr 30, 2007 11:17 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Just think
If Hall was hitting and if we have a real third basemen. The one real hole.

by Grinder12000 on May 1, 2007 6:21 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

antsy for braun
this counsellino platoon isn't going to last. i realize that braun has only a month of triple a under his belt, but i wouldn't expect him in nashville much longer.

by Griswald on May 1, 2007 6:25 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

especially
if we have to keep waiting for error #2!

by Jeff Sackmann on May 1, 2007 6:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

"the hole"
I honestly don't look at third as a hole.  Obviously I want Braun up but to call third a hole may be overstating it a bit.  Third is simply the lightest hitting spot in this lineup.  Around the league that distinction usually goes the SS/2B/C, but the Brewers have all of those covered offensively, relatively speaking.  Having one light hitting, solid defending spot in the infield isn't necessarily the end of the world.  Although, watching Counsell hit IS unGodly.
I have seen the coming of the Lord. Savior, thy name is Gallardo.

by ESK on May 1, 2007 6:37 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Braun
As long as the Brewers keep winning, I don't see Braun coming up soon.  I think it will take an injury (not necessarily at third base) or a sustained period where the club is struggling for him to get the call.  That, or a stellar performance as a DH when we go to AL parks in interleague play.    I also think the Brewers may exhibit some caution as  guys deemed ready after Spring Break (Gordon, Delmon Young, the Arizona prospects) haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the baseball at the MLB level.  All that, not to mention service time, leads me to believe we'll be waiting for a bit no matter what Braun's HR:E ratio ends up being over the next month.

by jackie t on May 1, 2007 8:02 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would disagree
It is not as Counsell and Graffanino have played Gold Glove third base.  I see that position as a gaping hole, how many teams are batting their third baseman in the 8 spot.  I do not, but wish, think Geoff and Mench will be hitting in the .340's at the end of July we are going to need some more pop in the line-up.  I love Counsel and Graffanino as bench players, they beat the hell out of people like Lou Collier, Trent Durrington and Rob Picciolo.  At this point in their carrear they are both bench players.  It is time for the Braun project to offically get on it's way.

And for god sakes trade Mench while there is still some worth to him.  Sell High Buy Low

by kjbsam on May 1, 2007 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why would we trade Mench?
I really, really don't understand all the clamoring to get Mench out of town with the Brewers ready to make a post-season push.

Who's your RH bat coming off the bench to PH if we don't have Mench?  Counsell and Miller?  Ugh.  Like him or not, Mench serves a number of useful roles.  He's the only RH half of a platoon for Jenkins, he's a cushion for injury risk, and he's and he's the only RH bench bat we have with power.  If Jenkins were to go, Gross at least fills in his piece of the puzzle.  Not so with Mench.  

Is he going to hit .340 all year?  Clearly not.  Even so, he's still incredibly useful, and that remains true even if he reverts to his .800 career OPS.

by jackie t on May 1, 2007 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's true
No one like having a platoon, but our Menchkins platoon is working out, at least so far.

If you want to break up Menchkins, though, then the Jenkins half is the half that has to go. Gross should be able to put up Jinxie-type numbers in his part of the platoon, and for much less salary.  As Jackie says, we really don't have much of a replacement for the Mench half of the platoon, nor for his bat on the bench when Jinxie plays.  

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on May 1, 2007 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Letting the Jenkamench rest
I'm very happy that people are finally realizing that Jenkins and Mench, when used properly are two stellar outfielders.  I've been saying this since day one, if Jenkins is limited to only batting against righties he is going to be a STELLAR corner outfielder.  And if Mench is only used when he is hot (he is a streaky hitter just like Jenk) he is going to be a stellar 300-400 ab guy.  It's very very very nice to have Corey Hart sitting out waiting for his chance.  Granted this might stunt his growth a tad, but hey, the kid has talent and will get his time.

As per Braun and our "gaping hole at 3rd base".  As many other said, usually teams have one or two positions that aren't "hitters" and usually defensive positions.  Counsell and Graffy have been serviceable and at the very least CLUTCH hitting this year, and steady with the glove.  As long as we are winning, lets let Braun gain more and more confidence down in AAA, no use bringing him up too early only to squash his confidence.  Anyone remember Ben Hendrickson and a certain Dana Eveland last year??? (I know pitching is different but it still holds true with domination at AAA and sucking in the Bigs)

by Burt Doyle on May 1, 2007 11:16 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

burt doyle.
great post burt doyle. couple o' things.

I've been saying this since day one.

I missed that, but i believe you, so props to you on identifying jenkins and mench as stellar outfielders. I think Yost has done a great(!) job with the trio of OFs. Yes, Jenkins has hit against LHP and Mench has had ABs against RHP and they've both been not good, but, those ABs seemed to me to be low leverage. For the sake of the franchise Hart is going to need to take a commanding lead in playing time by the end of the year. It's working pretty good so far though. Hart will be better than both of these guys, and can play everyday. Gross can step into the role Jenkins is playing right now and the brewers lose nothing. It's a good problem to have.

As per Braun and our "gaping hole at 3rd base".

I don't see the gaping hole quote, anywhere. I'm assuming suggesting the production at 3b is adequate? It's not.

After Hall, Counsell and Graffy are 2 and 3 for least clutch. Braun's time is near (6/18), no need to put up with suckitude at 3b until we start losing. That's like leaving a pitcher in the game until they implode and blow the game. Braun's making AAA pitching look foolish (1.106 OPS), that doesn't help his development. His throwing errors are mental, and no amount of AAA baseball is going to ease the transition to the Majors.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 1, 2007 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

6/8
Braun's time is near (6/18)

should read 6/8

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 1, 2007 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you're assuming he's our AL DH?
it's possible, but barring a move, I'd be surprised if he were called up for that role.  I know Prince got the call for that a couple of years ago, but this is a very different team: do you call up Braun to DH him over one of Mench/Jenks/Hart/Gross?  I think it'd be really hard to do that.

by Jeff Sackmann on May 1, 2007 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i missed the thread response to my comment
damn crazy work filter, but I think the most interesting thing about this whole Braun discussion is that everyone assumes Braun will put up better numbers than the mythical Graffasell.

Was/is Braun guaranteed to be better offensively than the 3B beast?  I don't know, was/is Braun considered head and shoulders ahead of Alex Gordon?  Even young guys like Wright and Zimmerman (who when he was drafted ahead of Braun WAS considered head and shoulders better) are struggling.

Gordon:.173 avg .296 slugging
Wright:.244/.311
Zimmerman:.236/.327

Is the assumed drop off in defense worth the possibility of poor offensive production?  And how long can a surging team like Milwaukee put up with a struggling youngster (in the unlikely scenario that he struggles)

I have seen the coming of the Lord. Savior, thy name is Gallardo.

by ESK on May 1, 2007 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes.
Was/is Braun guaranteed to be better offensively than the 3B beast?

Yes. Guaranteed.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 2, 2007 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Defense
"It helps that our defense is so much stronger than it was last year, but a lot of better one for the Brewers."

While our errors are down our Defensive effiency this year is actually worse then last year, 0.683 compared to 0.694.  This may be low because Hall is getting used to center but I don't know how much of an effect that will have. In fact, the only two teams in the NL that have a lower DE are the rockies and the marlins who both play in large parks.

by dixieflatline on May 1, 2007 11:29 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

every time
poo holes pulls a ball in the air, I assume it's gone
I have seen the coming of the Lord. Savior, thy name is Gallardo.

by ESK on May 1, 2007 7:13 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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