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We'll Have to Settle for 161-1

Ok, I guess the first loss had to come eventually.  It was heartbreaking--Prince Fielder was the tying run, standing at second base with none out, and we couldn't get him in.  But you know what?  For all the sucky things that happened in tonight's game (think Carlos Villanueva's first, second, and third walks), this was a really encouraging contest.

First, Jeff Suppan pitched well.  I didn't see his outing at all, but judging from the comments in the game thread, he didn't look good at all, especially from the outset.  But he went seven solid innings, giving up only two runs.  We can't expect that every time out from him, but that's the sort of thing that makes baseball guys love Jeff so much: he battles.  He never has great stuff, so he knows what to do when he doesn't have any stuff at all.

Second, Derrick Turnbow looks great.  I remember last April, when I watched every game for a few weeks, and I was just blown away by how nasty his stuff was.  (For some reason I had never registered its nastiness before--too much radio, I guess.)  Right now, it looks that good again.  Until further notice, NL teams need to assume that they only have seven innings to score against the Brewers.  

We had some issues bringing runners into score, but our offense just doesn't quit.  Regardless of which two outfielders are playing the corners, there are seven offensive threats in the lineup every day.  J.J. Hardy is once again looking like the guy who we were waiting for all the time, not the guy who looked like the second coming of Adam Everett last year.  Maybe that'll change when the NL remembers how to pitch to him (no fastballs. ever) but I'll take what I can get for now.

Now, the downside.  Carlos Villanueva (that's VEE-anueva to you, buddy) made his first appearance of the year, and walked three guys before coming out of the game.  Three up, three on.  By the time Elmer Dessens had gotten out of the inning, all three had come in.  In fairness, Wilson Betemit really made Carlos work, but the other two are just inexcusable.  I guess we have to write this off to opening day(ish) jitters, or adjusting to pitching from the bullpen, or something: poor control isn't Carlos's MO, and it won't take many more leadoff walks before Villanueva arranges for Jose Capellan to get back to the big leagues.

Speaking of Capellan: he's agreed to go to Nashville.  That was pretty obvious.  Nashville's opener is tomorrow night (the big club has the day off), and it might be televised via the MILB official site.  (Last year at this time, I think it was free.)  I believe John is planning on doing his daily Minor League Notes again this year, so we can keep track of Ryan Braun's home runs and errors, as well as Yovani Gallardo's strikeouts, popups, and overall dominance.

This weekend, the Crew stays at home to face the Cubs--we'll see the regular season debut of Claudio Vargas, and probably the season debut of Damian Miller, who I believe is the only position player who hasn't yet appeared in a game.  

Even though we have to settle for 2-1, this is a very encouraging start to the season.

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Completely agree
I like the way they're hitting the ball--that lineout to center off Weeks' bat was just waffled, and Hardy's been hitting screamers--but more importantly, I like the way they're approaching at-bats. The team didn't walk much last year, but for the most part they seem to be working the count pretty well; even Johnny Estrada has a walk!

The downside, as usual, is that despite his offseason reading material, Yost seems well-positioned (ha!) to hold the team back, no matter how well they're playing. The bullpen usage has been just bizarre to this point, the pinch hitting has been either misdirected or missing, and I still don't understand why Tony Gwynn is on this team (though that last one isn't all on Ned).

by battlekow on Apr 4, 2007 10:51 PM CDT   0 recs

Saito
was rocked. There was no way we should have lost but we did.sigh.  Villy was a crap call for sure.

by iluvlamp on Apr 4, 2007 10:57 PM CDT   0 recs

The Negative
Hey everyone. Been reading your blog for past month or so and probably should start throwing in my two cents. So first thats for all the quality reading. I do share your enthusiasm and see all the positives; but, there was one glaring negative to me...mismanagement.

First villa comes in. To me he is our long inning guy. Our 4th/5th starters pitch the next two. Wouldn't it make sense to save our long guy for problems that may arise in the next games (namely Vargas who isn't a sure thing though he looked good in ST). Fine, villa comes in and walks the bases full after 3 consecutive full counts.

Call to the bullpen, Elmer Dessens...bring in our worst pitcher to try to keep the game close. Dessens should have gotten the call over villa in the first place. At this point I'm starting to think where is Turnbow right now? Yost must be resting him...he won't be in this game.

Wrong...next inning Turnbow is in with the game almost out of reach. Is there a statistic out there that makes sense of bringing in Turnbow there rather than where Dessens came in? You have a hot pitcher, strikeout guy, former closer, and you don't bring him in there with the bases loaded and the game one pitch from being lost? To me that is the ideal Turnbow situation?

Brewers 2 - Yost 1

Look forward to your comments. Thanks again for the blog.

by TAPmoney on Apr 4, 2007 11:00 PM CDT   0 recs

Ahh... Nedly... What hath you wroght?
Let's not forget the initial Line-up mistakes.  There is no reason for both Jinx and the Head to be in the game at the same time, unless it is an interleague game and we have a DH.  Now the Head did go 1-3 with a walk, but Corey Hart is you best player in that position.  He made the same mistake with Hall last year, not playing him everyday to begin with.  

On to the pitching.  You are 100% right, except for the Dessens being the worst pitcher on the squad.  I think that title will fall to aquino.  We have the luxury of having the Ace reliever, and the Closer.  Why not use it?

Thank god Vargas isn't going this weekend.  I can't wait for the Zambrano/Sheets matchup.  It's round one of Battle of the Favorites for the Cy in the Central (now that Carpenter is out, probably for awhile).

by hyattff2003 on Apr 5, 2007 9:51 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

what else could he do?
I think that Ned will try to keep the back of the bullpen consistent.  Cordero will only pitch in the ninth.  Turnbow will only pitch in the 8th for holds, ninth in close games that are being lost. Wise will be the 7th inning holder, etc.

The fifth and sixth inning will always be crapshoots.  Take away the starters, and the three guys mentioned above (who will never pitch before the 7th) and you have CV, Aquino, Dessens, Shouse, and possibly the 5th guy (Vargas).

Aquino and Shouse pitched the previous day.  CV and Dessens had not pitched since Friday(?) and would not pitch until this Friday if they did not pitch last night.

by grant76 on Apr 5, 2007 9:55 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh Yea
And where was Tony Gywnn Jr. to pinch run for Fielder. Didn't we keep him for pinch running situations like that late in games? Oh no...I forgot we are pinch hitting him over veteran players. I mean he is good but...

by TAPmoney on Apr 4, 2007 11:05 PM CDT   0 recs

ned's explanation, i guess
would be that we don't really have a backup first baseman (graffy?), and if he used Gwynn, he'd be really shorthanded if the game went to extras.

But damn, if Fielder had been stranded at third after a Jenkins single, we would've really liked the opportunity to be shorthanded in extras, no?

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 4, 2007 11:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I was thinking the same thing about Fielder.
What would they do Fielder at 3rd with one out?  

Maybe Hart should have stayed in the game after pinch hitting.  Or keep Vinny on the roster? But then who would pinch run?

I'm not sure that we should have expected Ned to see that far ahead.  Not a big deal IMO.  

by grant76 on Apr 5, 2007 10:01 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I would think
If Mench had a 'team first' bone in his body, he would have offered to play a little 1B this spring.  To me, he seems like he'd at least be serviceable there if he tried it out (or he's that abominable that his only place is outfield or as DH).

by nmc on Apr 5, 2007 10:50 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

maybe...
ned didn't really read all those fancy books on how to win baseball games after all...

by engbjm06 on Apr 4, 2007 11:11 PM CDT   0 recs

Vargas?
MLB.com suggests Vargas is getting skipped this weekend.  Sheets-Zambrano on Saturday:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/scoreboard/20070407.html

by Bill on Apr 4, 2007 11:34 PM CDT   0 recs

Oh.
Good call.  That will be one heck of a matchup.  Maybe we'll see Vargas out of the pen...that seems like a long layoff otherwise.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 4, 2007 11:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You mean...
Maybe he'll get lucky and Ned'll divine his number in his tea leaves.

by battlekow on Apr 5, 2007 7:02 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

lay one down
I really think Bill Hall should have bunted in that situation.  I know many people would disagree because he has the potential to end the game, but the odds are definitely in your favor with a guy on third and 1 out with Estrada and Jenkins coming up. In fact Estrada's fly ball would of meant extra innings!

by kevind on Apr 5, 2007 9:22 AM CDT   0 recs

I agree
though maybe for a different reason.  I think they were going for the win, which is fine I guess.  But two thoughts:
  1. Bill Hall has a propensity to strikeout.  You can't move the runner if you don't hit the ball.
  2. The Brewers had a big pitching advantage.  The Dodgers had already used Broxton (Filthy).  They had already used Saito, he would not have pitched the 10th.  The Brewers, could have countered with Cordero in the 10th.

by grant76 on Apr 5, 2007 9:36 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

good point.
good point about playing for one.

however, i like not bunting there. i think i'd be calling for ned's head if he had bunted, so props to him for letting billy try do his thing (walk off hits).

ned gets props from me on that.

however, is understanding of game leverage is abysmal...

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Apr 5, 2007 10:38 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

*his
ned's understanding of game leverage.

When is the game closer, 1 run difference in the 7th or 3 run difference in the 8th? stupid nerds who live in their mom's basement no the answer to that... why can't ned?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Apr 5, 2007 10:39 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

*know
i'm on a roll. i think i'll stop typing.
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Apr 5, 2007 10:40 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

don't worry
those of us who actually understand simple math aren't expected to know how to type and/or spell, too.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 5, 2007 11:44 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

billy
I know billy is our clean up hitter and you don't ask your clean up hitter to bunt, but  i really think you should bunt there, when at home forsure. once the game is tied then win it in extra innings, if billy want to take his game to the next level, he atleast has to make contact and try to drive a ball to right center, even a ground ball to the right side would move the runner over, that is the difference between good teams, and really good teams, and we are not there yet

by Bigdogg2002 on Apr 5, 2007 11:44 AM CDT   0 recs

Defending Villanueva - somebody ahas too!
Yea - he walked three guys which will rarely have a positive spin - however - he DID throw 10 strikes.  It's not like he threw 12 balls in a row.

I'm not a "fan" of him but let's put things in perspective.  

by Grinder12000 on Apr 5, 2007 11:54 AM CDT   0 recs

most of those were to Betemit
who kept fouling them off.

But the first two atbats weren't all that hot.  And in that role (especially with Carlos's limited stuff), you have to throw strikes and let JJ turn outs into outs :).

But you're right, this wasn't a turnbow-style meltdown.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 5, 2007 11:58 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree
I did not actually see that inning as the Bucks were on the screen in the bowling alley so I could be totally wrong (can't find a pitch by pitch account on the web).

by Grinder12000 on Apr 5, 2007 12:28 PM CDT   0 recs

Suppan
While he did only give up 2 runs in 7 innings I was not too impressed.  First he stuck out two and walked three, never a good sign.  He induced only 7 groundballs to 12 flyballs.  At least 4 of those flyballs were warning track shots.  If you aren't going to strike anyone out then you had better not walk too many and induce you share of grounders.  Suppan has done that in his career but it was pure luck, and some hack-tastic baseball by the dodgers, that he went that far and only gave up two runs.

by dixieflatline on Apr 6, 2007 8:50 AM CDT   0 recs

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