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I. Don't. Want. To. Talk. About. It.

That sucked.  I mean, sure, we're all Brewers fans, we've been through worse.  Sometimes on a nightly basis.  But this team is supposed to be good.  In fact, this team is good, but we're hamstrung by a manager who doesn't know how to handle a bullpen and mistakenly thinks that he's piloting the 1964 Dodgers.

Let's talk about aggressiveness on the basepaths.  Aggressiveness feels good when it works, but you know what, it doesn't turn into an extra run all that often, and some of the time it does, that extra runs doesn't matter.  But when it doesn't work, it can be disastrous.  We gave away at least one run, possibly two and possibly many more tonight if we hadn't run into outs twice during this game.  Ned didn't personally direct those decisions, but he's been egging the guys on since day one.  That's on him.

And let's talk about the bullpen.  I'm all for not going to Turnbow with a four-run lead in the 8th inning.  Fine, good, not doing the obvious thing that is somewhat wasteful just to avoid second guessing.  But guess what: the Phillies have some good hitters at the top of their lineup!  And guess what else: Brian Shouse can't get righties out!  Sure, he can sometimes, and I'm sure Ned has a LaRussa-inspired index card that tells him exactly when that happens, but of all the guys in that bullpen, Shouse is the one man who should not under any circumstances be opening up the 8th inning.  Use Spurling for all I care.  Trade in Dessens for somebody who can actually pitch.  It doesn't matter, but it shouldn't be Shouse.

Let's go one step further.  When a guy doesn't have it, that's ok.  Tonight, Turnbow didn't have it.  It was clear about three batters before he was pulled.  Quick straw poll of BCBers: who would you rather have in the game, a baked Turnbow or a fresh Spurling?  After suffering through '06, I go with Spurling.  Cordero would be even better (I've heard that some humans are capable of throwing more than one inning on occasion), but it was obvious that Turnbow didn't have it.  Might he have gotten out of the inning?  Sure.  He had some bad luck: usually if enough balls are hard hit, a few of them go right to somebody.  But there's no good reason to take that chance as long as there's a warm non-Dessens body in the 'pen.

I could go on, but writing in all of these italics tags is making me tired.  I'm going to all three games in the rest of the series, and I sincerely hope that Ned doesn't have the opportunity to continue doing crap like this.  At the rate he was going tonight, I could be rooting for the Phillies by the sixth inning on Thursday.

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There is a simple two word answer to our problem
Joe Girardi

I am pretty sure that Joe would not have sat there like a deer in the headlights while his team pissed away a 4 run lead.

I really hate Ned Yost they have done well in spite of him

You can handle losses like yesterday it happens but  this one tonight these are the ones that hurt to your soul.

time to go patch drywall holes
 

by WSB Chris on May 14, 2007 9:17 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yost
was a joke tonight. A complete joke. We have to win tomorrow now. We have lost 3 out of 4! I think Cordero would have been at least a choice. The Shouse thing, I'm just pissed about that.

by iluvlamp on May 14, 2007 9:18 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, Jeff
Saved me some typing tonight.  No matter how good things go, it's nights like tonight that remind us that the Brewers win in spite of Ned.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 14, 2007 9:33 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

My god people
relax - things went wrong. Shit happens. A butter fly flapped it's wings somewhere.

The problem with being hot is you start to expect things to ALWAYS go right!  Well - it's baseball and I REALLY doubt you can blame Yost for the loss!

His decisions did not LOSE the game unless you have access to some alternate reality.

Aggressive base running?  Is that what you call Prince staying put on 1st on a Pass Ball?

by Grinder12000 on May 14, 2007 9:49 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

No
If you don't think the Brewers have been overly aggressive on the bases lately, you're nuts.

I would honestly like to see some stats on Brewer stolen bases vs. being thrown out so far this year. I'd venture to guess it's not a good ratio.

by MadRyan on May 14, 2007 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

SB Ratio
19 steals
11 caught stealing

63% success rate.

by craigholl on May 14, 2007 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is that
before today or including today

by Stoa on May 14, 2007 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

of course...
in all of MLB it's currently 631/232 for a 73% success rate, which is a pretty damn significant difference...

by Zeyes on May 15, 2007 5:03 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ridiculous
Shouse? In the 8th? Versus two righties? The hell?

Despite his sub-par efforts in Nashville, Chris Spurling has been pretty damn good in his time with the Crew.

Why was he not the FIRST in the 8th? Or better yet, why is Jose Cappellan not on the team in place of Elmer Dessens?

I realize S-HOUSE hadn't pitched in a while, but who cares? He's a SITUATIONAL LEFTY for a reason.

Honestly though, Dessens being on the team gums up the entire bullpen. He isn't a viable option EVER, and it's obvious Ned and/or Maddux don't have any faith in him to get outs anyway. So, why is he still on the team?

by MadRyan on May 14, 2007 9:51 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Have any of you actually coached???
Do you have ANY idea how hard it is to work a Bull Pen?  It is a learning experience.  You do things that do not look smart to see what happens. In safe situations.

SOMETIMES you get it in the arse and you look like a fool.  But every game you learn something.

Yost is not a dummy. He is a young and learning manager that EVERY YEAR goes through this learning process with the pen.

What works, who can do what and when.

Come on you guys - you are smarter then this.

by Grinder12000 on May 14, 2007 9:54 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ned screwed up, plain and simple
I don't blame him for putting in Shouse... no one expected a collapse, but he can certainly be blamed for this "aggressive baserunning" garbage, and also for not pulling Turnbow soon enough.  He had Cordero up.

by keephopealive on May 14, 2007 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yea
I'm not real fond of the aggressive base running when you have a power team like the Brewers - but that didn't lose the game.

The OLD Turnbow lost it.

by Grinder12000 on May 15, 2007 6:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I donnow man
Grinder I feel what you're saying but this is his 4th (5th?) year of managing, he should have this kind of thing down pat a little better than this.  Shouse has proven to be a good back-pocket specialist, and Spurling is starting to prove he can work through important innings, and a 4-run lead is barely even that important.  I also think the leash on Turnbow was too long, he had no signs of life whatsoever after three batters.  

The baserunning was indeed over-the-top tonight.  Tagging from third with two outs on a shallow fly is often smart aggressive baserunning, stealing 3rd with nobody out and the HOT top of the order coming to the plate is not.

by Tick on May 14, 2007 10:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Nothing I
hate more than the you have not coached or played thing. We all see it. I guess I can't comment on any President either. I have never been president but I know when one is doing a shit job.

by iluvlamp on May 14, 2007 10:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ok this is a small point
Compared to the rest of it this is tiny but I don't really want to talk about the large points today so I am going to go off on a tangent about a small point.

In the 8th when the game got to 6-5 with a runner on first and no outs Cordero started warming up in the pen.  What followed was fly out, single, single, fielder's choice run scores, single, sac fly.  Why was Cordero even warming in the pen?  If you can't find a spot in there to put in Cordero then I just don't know.  Last week there was a similiar situation where guys were up in the pen, things continued to unravel, and still no move.  It just doesn't make any sense to me.

by dixieflatline on May 14, 2007 10:50 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

agreed
although I didn't watch the game I know what you mean. That never made sense to me either.
Another point: To me, Yost showed how little he trusts the other relievers out there. He obviously wanted to give Turnbow and perhaps Cordero a night off...but to put Shouse--a loogy---in to face a righty just doesn't make sense.
In a small sense, Dale Sveuem should have pressured Yost into making a better move (that's the job of a bench coach) to look at all the options. If yost is telling us that shouse is the best option there...we have lots of problems.

I apologize for the caps/non-caps, I'm very inconsistent.

Brewers in 07!

by Michael M on May 14, 2007 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ned deserves plenty of blame
but so does Turnbow.  He was the guy who got the crap hit out of him over and over again, including by WES HELMS of all people.

A reliever who comes in with two on and no outs and gives up six runs in the inning is the primary culprit.  Ned may have significantly reduced the margin for error with some of his moves, but it was still an awfully large margin for error for DBow, and he blew it.

Here's hoping this was just a one time thing.  We've got to get 2 of the next 3 here.

Fortunately, the Mets beat the Cubs for us.

by Bill on May 14, 2007 10:53 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

My thoughts
I didn't watch or listen to the game but reading the play-by-play wrecked my night anyway. Bringing Shouse in to face righties is dumb, but that's already been said. One problem with bringing Cordero in to pitch an inning-plus tonight is that I have the feeling that if he pitched again tomorrow people would be calling for Yost's head if it was a save situation Wednesday and he wasn't put in. I'm sure I'm overestimating but it seems like the ideal bullpen usage for this site would see something like 25+ games for Wise, Turnbow and Cordero already which would put them on pace for a staggering number of games.

Could Yost's bullpen usage be better in some games? Definitely yes, but you can't say anyone's been overworked to this point.

by TheJay on May 14, 2007 10:55 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

the conspiracy theorist in me...
sees this wreckage as the precursor to the return of the 13-man staff. Gawd, I hope not.

by Zeyes on May 15, 2007 5:08 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

BTW...
Capellan hasn't been looking so hot lately, with 6 ER, 5 BB and 2 K in his last six outings spanning 6.0 IP...

by Zeyes on May 15, 2007 5:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Something I'd likt to stress
I wish I had a sports blog instead of a poker blog sometimes  LOL.

While everyone is all over Yost I think they are missing something.  

We watch Yost every game but do not see that ALL managers make mistakes.  It's not JUST Yost that sometimes pulls a bonehead blunder. ALL coach's have these things happen and the fans get upset.

Managers make mistakes all the time.  People think that all other managers are perfect, but except for the very very elite, they are all just pulling cards out of a hat and learning as they go.

I think what lost last nights game was success!  When something works over and over and over, when it does not work you do not have the experience to know exactly when to change.

HOPEFULLY, this was a learning game.

by Grinder12000 on May 15, 2007 6:21 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Deliberately missing the point
There is nothing in your comment that applies to our anger over yesterday's game.
  1.  Just because many managers suck, doesn't mean we have to grin and bear it when Yost sucks.  This is the same stupid argument that people use with politicians.  If managers get heat when they do something stupid, maybe the day will come that an owner hires someone that actually understands the value of statistical analysis, and doesn't throw games away based on unwritten baseball rules.
  2.  This isn't a victim of success.  It has never been successful for Shouse to come out as a regular reliever against right-handed batting.  This blunder led directly to runners on 2nd and 3rd for Turnbow, and Turnbow does not handle pressure at all.  That's why he's not a closer any more.  The 8th inning pitching cockups are entirely Ned's fault, because there was nothing surprising about it.
  3.  Ned won't learn.  Check out my article over at FNY.  He already said he wouldn't do anything differently.  It is this arrogance and lack of self-reflection that drives many of us up a wall.  It means that not only did he fuck it up yesterday, he'll also fuck it up if he gets a chance today.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 15, 2007 7:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i agree...
it is ESPECIALLY annoying when he says that he wouldn't do anything differently... so dumb.

by engbjm06 on May 15, 2007 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Channelling GWB?
So is Ned The Decider?

by DC Brewer on May 15, 2007 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm
Doesn't that sound a little lile Jinxie last season and his broken swing?
"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on May 15, 2007 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I watched Heroes
at =9PM eastern.  So I missed the meltdown.  I'm just  gonna say that any combination of pitchers should have been able to hold a lead that big.

Shouse does have some nasty left/right splits though.  Turnbow will have days like this I think.  As long as they are few and far between I'm ok with it.

And I also would not care is Cordero pitched 1 and 1/3 for once.

I still out this one on the pitchers though.

by grant76 on May 15, 2007 7:48 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Holy grammatics Batman
We really need an edit option

by grant76 on May 15, 2007 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm glad
... I was at the library studying foreign subsidiary consolidations through foreign currency, that seems a heck of a lot more fun than what you guys saw.

Yost certainly uses Shouse curiously, doesn't he?  The baserunning (again) didn't lose the game, but it did contribute to the loss ... you can't account for a complete Turnbow meltdown or Yost's refusal to use the stellar closer who hasn't pitched since last Wednesday.  

Besides sitting here and bitching about the manager, is there a way to measure the manager's performance besides the ultimate W-L?  Perhaps a rating on baserunning ("extra bases" and "outs on the basepaths," assigning partial blame to the player or manager, kind of like a "win share"), bullpen usage, etc?  Just spouting off things here.

by nmc on May 15, 2007 8:48 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yost
I didn't think it was all that terrible. He tried to steal an inning from Shouse, and when it didn't work he pulled him immediately. It was nice not to see Spurling or Dessens start that inning, and saving Villanueva makes sense.

Turnbow just didn't get the job done. Shouse didn't lose that game, Turnbow did. And Turnbow is the guy i want on the mound in that situation.

We got beat with our best out there. Blaming this one on Yost is wrong. He managed a pretty good game.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 15, 2007 9:01 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

And here we have the problem
Shouse should never pitch an inning!  His only use is to get out a left-handed batter in a key situation.  Any other use of Shouse is wrong.

Obviously, Turnbow shoulders most of the blame for his performance, but Yost is the one that sent him out there with runners on 2nd and 3rd and no outs.  Turnbow CANNOT handle pressure.  He has thrived in a role where he can come in and work without pressure.

Shouse in the 8th is the prototypical Yostian move.  He sent a guy out there to succeed against substantial odds.  He gambled and lost, and doesn;t have the decency to admit it was a mistake.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 15, 2007 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

disagree
i don't think this is right:

Shouse should never pitch an inning!.

What about a low leverage situation, or when other pitchers are unavailable. The best use of Shouse is v. LHB, but that doesn't mean it's wrong to use him against RHB. Some situations call for it, I think this was one of them...

So you are saying that Spurling was the no-brainer call for the 8th, and Shouse was the horrible mistake by Yost? Even though Shouse didn't lose the game, that horrible decision by Yost did cost the Brewers the game? If Turnbow had pitched anywhere near where he is capable of they'd have won the game. Turnbow blew it, he was the right pitcher for the situation.

Also Turnbow can and does succeed in pressure situations. He needs to succeed in pressure situations, protecting him against high leverage situations is stupid and would cost the brewers many of the wins they have this season already.

All you guys are wrong on the Shouse call. It's a coin flip there Spurling v. Shouse with a LI of 0.68

Yost managed well, Turnbow lost the game.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 15, 2007 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just have to disagree, then
If it weren't for his ability get get lefties out, Shouse would be back at AAA, as far as I'm concerned.  He should never face major league right-handed batters.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 15, 2007 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

so spurling?
Spurling then? was that the right move to start the 8th?
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 15, 2007 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No
Actually, he should have started the 8th with Turnbow.  Not only would he have gotten started without runners on 2nd and 3rd, but he surely would have given Rowand a harder time out of the gate.  Turnbow's success is entirely based on confidence, and he got hamstrung by the situation he was in last night.

However, Spurling would have been a better choice, too.  It's actually a coin flip for me whether Gross would have been a better choice than Shouse.

The Brewers snagged Shouse out of the Rangers minor league system, and somehow turned him into a useful major league pitcher by taking advantage of one thing he is good at.  He is not, by any stretch of the imagination, an effective major league pitcher outside of that situation.

Incidentally, when the score went to 6-3 on the wild pitch with no outs and the bases loaded, the Leverage Index hit 2.98 and it was too late to close the barn door on Turnbow.  Cordero needed to come in and slam the door, and then he needed to come in again when it went 6-5 with runners on 2nd and 3rd and a LI of 3.84.

At every point of the 8th inning, Ned had options, and at every point he chose the option with the least probability of success.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 15, 2007 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

.68
So pitch Turnbow everyday? You cannot bring Turnbow into games with such a low leverage index. he'd be pitching everyday. EVERYDAY! that's ridiculous.

You have an argument for bringing in Cordero at any point after the wild pitch, most notably at 6-5 with runners at 2-3 and one out. that move would have been defensible.

Shouse can get righties out, granted not very well (60%). And, I think Spurling might have been the better choice, but given how long its been since Brain's House pitched bringing him in there is defensible. Bringing in Turnbow to start the 8th would not have been defensible.

But Yost did not let Shouse lose the game. He let Turnbow lose the game, and that's good managing.

Turnbow is a good enough pitcher to pitch in those situations... at least until he's not, after a two more games like yesterday then, yes, go to Cordero with only 1 out in the 8th and try to get a 5 out save from him... But Turnbow has been pitching so well that he deserved the shot to close out the 8th.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 15, 2007 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We're not going to agree
I think we can find some common ground on 2 points:
  1. Spurling is a better bet than Shouse to start the 8th.  Still not a guy you want out there, but better than Shouse.
  2. Cordero had to come in to bail Turnbow out either after the wild pitch at 6-3, or after the next 2 runs scored.
The rest can be hashed out in future games, since Ned clearly thinks he's got the right game plan, and so we'll see these situations again.

Incidentally, it won't be long before we have to start bringing some pressure on Melvin to improve the bullpen.  If Vargas struggles today, there's a good chance that Ned will have to use Spurling or Dessens tonight, and that's a bad situation to be in.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 15, 2007 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hate the concept of a save.
And I hate the concept of a closer. Those two things ruined what would've gotten the Brewers out of that game.

Yost should not call Cordero his closer. He should call him his best pitcher out of the bullpen. Then he should use him in the most important situation.

Last night, that would've been the eighth inning with two guys on. So pitch Cordero there. Starting the ninth with nobody on the bases -- that would be the next-toughest spot. So pitch Turnbow there.

Oh no! But then a man who is not dubbed the "closer" might actually get a "save." And then Yost has to explain to the team's one beat writer why someone besides Cordero is finishing the game.

It's a lot easier to lose behaving like every other manager in the league than be second-guessed for doing something actually more logical.

by mitch on May 15, 2007 9:25 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

In his last 5 outings
he had given up one hit and no ER since Apr. 24, and has settled in to the 8th inning role nicely this year, so why should we expect Ned to not go to him in that situation?  Bringing in Shouse was questionable, yes, but there were 2 runners on w/ a four-run lead.  No need to rush to get Cordero in that situation.  Turnbow just didn't get it done last night, that's it.

by Dutch on May 15, 2007 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

my thoughts
getting in kind of late, i realize, but i feel i have to say something:

is yost going to get blamed for every close loss? seriously. after every 1-3 run loss (and others, too), i read about how it's yost's fault. now bear in mind, yost deserves some blame for last night. but more than turnbow who - hello! - was the guy on the mound that got rocked? sure, there's always something the manager could have tried differently that may or may not have worked, but it's pretty f*ckin' easy to sit back after the game and rip him.

fellas, it's one game. yeah, it really, really sucked last night. it was a game that the brewers never should have lost. but just because the bullpen completely imploded doesn't mean it all rests on yost, like i've read a lot here.

and jesus christ, cut the guy some slack. even after blowout victories i'll read here the most nitpicky criticism of ned's management of the game. do you realize that even after losing the last 3 of 4 the brewers still have a 7 game lead in their division and one of the best records in baseball? does yost not get any of the credit for that?

by Griswald on May 15, 2007 9:29 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Blame
Over at FNY, we've actually tracked the losses we blame directly on Yost.  I think you'll find that we don't blame him for "every close loss."

by Marty McSuperFly on May 15, 2007 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

T-Bow
Late to the party, but it really feels like this one is on T-Bow, more than on Ned. Blame Ned for the baserunning mistakes (although he threw Craig under the bus for the caught stealing from second); blame him for putting Shouse in in the first place, but ultimately your second best reliever is on the mound and got obliterated. I hope he gets another chance this series to redeem himself, because we're going to need him the rest of the season. We can't expect to have Coco pitch two innings of relief in every tight situation.

As for the big picture, I still think they take 2-out-of-3 and come home with a 3-4 record on the trip. Not great, but not end of the world. I hope I'm right and I hope that T-bow doesn't repeat his meltdown from last year.

by DC Brewer on May 15, 2007 11:01 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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