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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

We're Getting Spoiled

I know that my perspective as a fan has changed when a 3-1 win over the Nats that seals a series sweep and a 9-1 homestead is just...expected.  You know we could've done better, and really we could've crushed those guys.

But, of course, when they tally up the wins at the end of the year, it doesn't matter whether you win 3-1 or 11-3, they all count the same way.  Even the ones against Washington.  Claudio Vargas was mysteriously effective again, both with the bases empty and occupied, and a little bit (okay, a lot) of luck helped push across the go-ahead runs in the 8th.

Now things get a little trickier.  We're 24-10, comfortably the best performing team in baseball, and for at least another several hours, seven games up on the second-place Cubs.  As I noted in my Hardball Times column today, reinforcements are coming soon, so this team could get better before it gets worse.  But then again, we're going to face some real major league teams now.

As people have been warning us for weeks now, 13 of the next 16 games are on the road, and most of those are against good teams.  (I suppose it depends what you think about the Phillies.)  It will be an interesting test: if the Brewers can win at least half of those games, I think it's safe to say we're for real.  But consider this: if the Crew hits a horrible skid (which isn't going to happen) and loses all 16, we'd still be 24-26.  That's what crushing the bad teams does for you.  I'd much rather be 32-18 with some nice wins against the Mets and Twins, but no matter what happens for the remainder of the month, we're still going to be right in the race on June 1st.

Enjoy it while it lasts: we've got more than 48 hours until the first pitch at Shea on Friday, and it better not rain, because I've got tickets!

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Saturday's game
Jeff - are you going to that one as well? I'm going with the crew from Kettle of Fish (we'll be tailgating as well).

by DC Brewer on May 9, 2007 3:08 PM CDT reply actions  

oh cool
The Saturday one is the one I'm not sure of ...but if I go, I'll definitely track down you guys.  Can you send me an e-mail about it?  jeffsackmann@gmail.com

by Jeff Sackmann on May 9, 2007 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

Awesome!
I love the guys from the Kettle of Fish.  Just saw them on my trip to NYC last month.  The best bar in the world.  

Went on the first Brewers Kettle trip to Shea Stadium, when the game got rained out and we ended up tailgating underneath the freeway overpass.

I be there with you guys in spirit.  Say hi to
Patrick, Adrian, Steve, and Rob for me!

Jamie in LA...

by engbjm06 on May 9, 2007 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

This game REALLY worried me
I was not at all relaxed going into the game and I thought this was the one the Brewers were going to lose!

I wish I would not have thought that!  LOL

by Grinder12000 on May 9, 2007 3:36 PM CDT reply actions  

Braun has wrist problem
I thought I heard Jim Powell say. Any response or additional info on this?

by heybatterbatter on May 9, 2007 4:11 PM CDT reply actions  

corey hart and ryan were...well...
exercising together

didn't we decide that was the real issue with hart's wrist in an earlier discission?

Brewers in 07!

by Michael M on May 9, 2007 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah
I heard that braun had wirst and maybe hamstrings problems, but are not considered serious, i think they said they migth sit him for a day or two

by Bigdogg2002 on May 9, 2007 4:22 PM CDT reply actions  

Magic # is...
now 124 (dependent on what the cubs do tonight)

So now Cordero and d-Bow will get a day off, and Wise can heal for another day.  And we go into Shea to face a truly tough lineup.  After that we travel down to face a Braves team that is currently #1 in their division.  It just is a little nerve racking that our first 12 series featured just 3 teams at or above .500, and our next 11 feature just 3 teams at or below .500.

That's not the Chirizo, It's Enrico Polazzo!

by hyattff2003 on May 9, 2007 4:33 PM CDT reply actions  

yeah I know
not braves yet
That's not the Chirizo, It's Enrico Polazzo!

by hyattff2003 on May 9, 2007 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

Don't forget...
that the Crew is a big reason for several of those teams being under .500 now:

Houston 15-17, 2-4 against Brewers
Pittsburgh 14-17, 1-5 against Brewers
St. Louis 14-18, 1-4 against Brewers

Maybe the reason our upcoming opponents are above .500 is that they haven't played the Crew yet. ;) BTW, the second leg of the upcoming trip is against the Phillies, not the Braves. Not quite so fearsome...

by Zeyes on May 9, 2007 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

nevermind...
just figured out that's what your "not Braves yet" followup was about.

by Zeyes on May 9, 2007 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

bring on the mets!
now we find out if this team is for real. i think it is and i think the nation will find out about it. the brewers are extremely fortunate to have their top 3 pitchers going this weekend. as a brewers fan, you have to feel confident about taking 2 out of 3 at shea.

as for this game, i'm not one to bitch about a sweep. i have and always be of the school of thought that a win is a win, i don't care how or why it happened. so the 3 games were probably closer than they should have been? who cares.

by Griswald on May 9, 2007 4:55 PM CDT reply actions  

overrated
clap, clap, clapclapclap

the nl central is 13-9 v. nl east.

the nl central is 8-12 v. nl west

the nl east is 13-19 v. the nl west.

seems to me that so far the divisions rank:

  1. west
  2. central
  3. east
and if you say its cause of the nationals, look at this:

the nationals are 9-25, 8-13 in the east, 1-12 against all other opponents.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 9, 2007 5:56 PM CDT reply actions  

huh...
when I saw your headline, my first thought was that it was a cubs or mets troll :).

that's really interesting, and flies right in the face of conventional wisdom.  could there be an article topic in there? :)

by Jeff Sackmann on May 9, 2007 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

two ways to...
interpret that Nats records...on the one hand it might indicate they're having the easiest time against the East division opponents, but on the other hand it also makes the East look worse in the inter-divisional records.

Without Washington:
Central vs. East: 7-9
Central vs. West: 8-12
East vs. West: 16-13 (not sure, but you seem to miss several East wins above)

by Zeyes on May 9, 2007 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

right
but the nats would be bringing the east down if there east division record matched there non-east record.

it's not even close. they are playing poorly in the east, and beyond horrific against the west and central. which means... the east is weak.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 10, 2007 8:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

Zeyes gets my vote
Remove the Nats and the Central doesn't look nearly as impressive -- we have a losing record against both other divisions.  Is it so surprising that the Cubs and Brewers were able to thump a bad team like the Nationals on the road?  All but four of the Nats' non-divisional games have been on the road, and they've all been against decent-to-good teams.

I'll also give a shout-out to small sample size here.  Wait a month or two before drawing any meaningful conclusions.  

by jackie t on May 10, 2007 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

1-12, or 8-13?
which is the true level of talent of the expos?

are they a 1-12 team or an 8-13 team?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 10, 2007 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hey Kettle of Fish guy
Are you going to the game on Sunday? I'd love to stop by the tailgate - I'll be there Friday but likely running to the game b/c of work.

Any other Brewer fans at Shea let me know where you are at, I'm the really handsome guy with the Brewers hat.  

by jax and rajah on May 9, 2007 7:58 PM CDT reply actions  

Trip is Saturday
I'll post details when I'm back at work tomorrow. Bus is full, but you can still meet up for t'gating.

by DC Brewer on May 9, 2007 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

DC Brewer...
I talked to Patrick, the owner of the Kettle, and he wanted me to pass along...

"indeed all are welcome but to be fair to the people who have paid, anyone meeting up with us should bring some food for the community table. Thanks."

Have a great time!  Wish I could be there.
Jamie in LA.

by engbjm06 on May 10, 2007 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

anyone watching the cubs
jason freaking marquis has a no no
I have seen the coming of the Lord. Savior, thy name is Gallardo.

by ESK on May 9, 2007 8:10 PM CDT reply actions  

Series of the Week
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6781758

According to Dayn Perry at FOXSports.com, the Brewers @ Mets is the series of the week.

by craigholl on May 9, 2007 9:23 PM CDT reply actions  

Eldred
Remember what happened the last time the Brewers let a stud pitching prospect burn it up in the minors for too long?

Yep, finished four games behind the Blue Jays in the Crew's last winning season.

I'm not sayin' bring him up, I'm just sayin' ... I don't know what I'm sayin'. But, I think Melvin will know the right time.

by HobokenCrew on May 10, 2007 5:24 PM CDT reply actions  

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