Who's expendable?
The comments in this thread got me thinking. In all of the various interviews I've done about the Brewers this season, I'm regularly asked what the Crew might try to acquire before the deadline. My answer is always the same: there aren't any glaring needs, and there aren't any big-ticket trading chips we're about to part with. I've occasionally added that I wouldn't be surprised to see Melvin pick up a reliever (maybe get in on the Octavio Dotel sweepstakes?), but that'd be about it. After all, is there really a weak spot among the starters?
The other recurring discussion in play here is this: Of the several young stars on this team, who's going to stay? As they hit arbitration and then free agency, there's no way we're going to be able to keep Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Hart, and Hall. (And I'm not even talking about pitchers right now!) Hall is locked up for a while, and Braun and Hart are a ways off from getting expensive, so that leaves us with Hardy, Fielder, and Weeks.
Many things can change before these decisions have to be made, but given what we can expect to pay them, and what we've gotten from them so far, who would you keep if you could only keep one of those? Only two? Seems to me like the no-brainer of the three is Prince Fielder. He keeps getting better, he could anchor the lineup for the next decade, and he's a fan favorite already. He'll be expensive, but great players are expensive.
That leaves Hardy and Weeks. Before Hardy's hot start, I would've thought he'd come cheap, but now I'm not so sure. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Doug try to lock up JJ after the season; if not then, definitely after the following season. A Bill Hall-like deal, in length and dollar value, seems about right to me.
So what about Rickie? There are all sorts of unknowns at play here: to what extent will his wrist injury recur? When will he start to develop the long-awaited power? (That's related to the first question, of course.) Is he a long-term solution at second base, or would he need to move? If we were to shop Rickie, I'd imagine that other teams would have a huge range of responses. Some would view him as a flyer, in the vein of B.J. Upton right now, while others would still think of him as a superstar waiting to break out. If one of the GMs in the "superstar" category was sufficiently interested, I can see a deal getting done.
Another thing to consider is the internal replacements available. It's possible that a deal involving Rickie or JJ would bring back a middle infielder, but perhaps not. Callix Crabbe is at Nashville, though he probably isn't a future starter. Hernan Iribarren and Alcides Escobar are now the double-play combo at Huntsville, and while both have been highly touted at some point or other, both carry serious question marks and are probably not any kind of solution until 2009. Anybody further off than that doesn't really deserve to be in the conversation.
I don't think this topic is going to matter much in the short term, but I think it's important (for the team's decision-makers, anyway) to have thought this stuff through. If, say, Sheets gets hurt in his next start and we lose him for the rest of the season, we might get a whole lot more serious about Mark Buehrle. Maybe we could get Buehrle and a good prospect (I don't know, Gio Gonzalez?) for Weeks. Would you do it? If not, what would it take?
As nice as it must be for a player to be considered "untouchable," almost no one should be. It's always a matter of price, even if that price may never be met.
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Weeks
I would say Weeks is the most expendable of those three, but he very well may be the cheapest based on stats so far. Personally, I don't see the team needing to do anything for a while yet with the young guys; first year arbitration salaries usually aren't a huge jump upwards, so it might even be 2009 by the time it becomes a real issue. By then, perhaps Doug may spin a trade of one of the excess, soon-to-be-expensive starters for a big haul of good, young replacements for the players with escalating salaries.
Like you, I don't think the team really has to make many changes this year. Perhaps add a reliever or two, but that's about it. All the talk about casting off "dead weight" makes no sense to me -- first, I don't think there's a player on the team horrible for the roles they fill, and second, I don't think there's any appreciably better replacements out there.
by TheJay on Jun 25, 2007 12:39 PM CDT 0 recs
I was on hold
The recent poll suggests shoring up the bullpen, which is something we can do. How about acquiring next year's closer? Turnbow's not the answer, and CoCo won't be worth the money he'll make. Unless Moustache is being sneaky and thinks Villanueva can close, we might be better off looking now.
by roguejim on
Jun 25, 2007 12:58 PM CDT
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Potential Closers
by TheJay on
Jun 25, 2007 1:46 PM CDT
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I still think...
by Zeyes on
Jun 25, 2007 11:04 PM CDT
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As always Jeff great article
by dixieflatline on Jun 25, 2007 12:40 PM CDT 0 recs
My
- Fielder
- Braun
- Hall
- Hardy
- Weeks
by The Prospector on Jun 25, 2007 12:51 PM CDT 0 recs
It's hard to say
The thing is, what does his future hold? The injuries and lackluster statistics would suggest that, if you still think he's our long-term answer at second, he won't be cheaper to lock up than now. (And as Jeff points out, if he's not, then who is? Fernando Vina? Ron Belliard?)
(Maybe my annoyance is misplaced, but did we select his brother in the draft, and he told him to go back to school?)
I'm also curious about what we'll do with Sheets, who turns 30 next summer.
As far as Weeks, Fielder, and Hardy are concerned, I'm not convinced we can't sign all three of them. Fielder is the only one who will be truly expensive, and rightly so. Weeks and Hardy are both injury risks, though, in the past and present, and that might put a cap on their salary demands. To do so would require a payroll upwards of $90 million, but the crowds seem to have really responded to the team. If we can work out a better TV deal, I can see it.
by roguejim on Jun 25, 2007 12:54 PM CDT 0 recs
TV Deal
by TheJay on
Jun 25, 2007 1:39 PM CDT
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who can play a full season?
So, until JJ and Rickie show an ability to play 140+ games per season, I see them as the expendable players. Fielder has been a consistent (and consistently healthy) star player for the team, and continues to get better. JJ and Rickie show flashes of huge ability, and then either go into extended slumps or on the DL. It's a no-brainer for me.
I'd be actively looking to trade one of them now, actually.
by Marty McSuperFly on Jun 25, 2007 12:58 PM CDT 0 recs
That is one thing
If that's the case, then, yes, trading him might not be a bad idea.
The only problem with selling high is that, like with Weeks, we really don't have adequate backups. Counsellino on a regular basis won't get us far in the playoffs. If it were fantasy baseball, selling high on Hardy would make sense; I'm not sure it translates well in real life.
by roguejim on
Jun 25, 2007 1:08 PM CDT
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Trading Hardy now?
by TheJay on
Jun 25, 2007 1:42 PM CDT
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What about the injuries?
2001 40 Games
2002 122 Games
2003 114 Games
2004 26 Games
2005 124 Games
2006 35 Games
And now he's feeling some pain in his back, which had also been his knee and his hip. If someone were to offer a (slightly less) talented young player in return for JJ Hardy and his injury risk, wouldn't that be an easy decision to make?
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jun 25, 2007 1:54 PM CDT
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Games
If a team does offer a young player akin to Hardy who seems more durable, then it would make sense to strike a deal. I just don't see any reason to hurry and get rid of him right now.
by TheJay on
Jun 25, 2007 2:08 PM CDT
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agreed
On the flip side, not expendable:
Fielder
Hart
Villanueva
Gallardo
Hall
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jun 25, 2007 2:10 PM CDT
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Villanueva???
Carlos V. is nothing like that player. I certainly hope Doug won't do something rash and trade him for Octavio Dotel or something, but the price at which I would part with Carlos isn't that astronomically high.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jun 25, 2007 2:21 PM CDT
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Actually
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jun 25, 2007 2:32 PM CDT
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Hart
I'll dispute Hart, though, too. Obviously it would take one hell of a package to pry him away, but we're seeing him live up to all of the potential we've hoped for from him right now. I think he'll keep producing like this for years, but his value might end up being higher right now than at any other point.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jun 25, 2007 2:39 PM CDT
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No dice
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jun 25, 2007 2:43 PM CDT
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OK...
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jun 25, 2007 3:00 PM CDT
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Seems unlikely
The only reason I can think of to trade a young player with low salary is to offload some sort of risk on to another team willing to bear that risk in return for a talent premium in the trade. Weeks and Hardy are players with some injury risk, and so I'd be receptive to offers for them. Hart has nothing but upside, and so I'd try to nail him down for arbitration plus a couple years.
I expect the fate of the Brewers is to remain a young team, and not be able to re-sign their free agents past whatever deal carries them through arbitration. Old players with huge salaries are just not a luxury they can afford.
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jun 25, 2007 3:18 PM CDT
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...which is fine with me
by roguejim on
Jun 25, 2007 3:23 PM CDT
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oops
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jun 25, 2007 1:19 PM CDT
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I don't see anybody getting traded....
Now we are a contending team. I would not trade an established starter for a prospect, when the chances of making the playoffs are good.
We could do the opposite and trade a prospect for an established guy, but I don't see a veteran out there that is really any better than what we have.
Jermaine Dye had a phenomenal year in 2006, but aside from that, is he really any better than Jenkins?
The guy I worry most about losing is Carlos V.
He would be attractive to a lot of teams, and he might be viewed as expendable for the right deal.
by grant76 on Jun 25, 2007 1:47 PM CDT 0 recs
side not
by Bigdogg2002 on Jun 25, 2007 1:52 PM CDT 0 recs
Maybe it's just me...
But as far as I see it the only holes that need fixing are RP & LF.
by CATALYST on Jun 25, 2007 3:44 PM CDT 0 recs
Yes
I have arbitrarily put "no deal" for the team at 90% with the balance committed to a fair offer on a middle reliever. The key players on the team aren't going anywhere, and if you consider Elmer Dessens in that category, please let me know your home address.
by nmc on
Jun 25, 2007 4:39 PM CDT
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Great Thread!
My list right now:
- Prince
- Hart
- JJ
- Rickie
by Jamie in LA on Jun 25, 2007 8:18 PM CDT 0 recs















