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Who's expendable?

The comments in this thread got me thinking.  In all of the various interviews I've done about the Brewers this season, I'm regularly asked what the Crew might try to acquire before the deadline.  My answer is always the same: there aren't any glaring needs, and there aren't any big-ticket trading chips we're about to part with.  I've occasionally added that I wouldn't be surprised to see Melvin pick up a reliever (maybe get in on the Octavio Dotel sweepstakes?), but that'd be about it.  After all, is there really a weak spot among the starters?

The other recurring discussion in play here is this: Of the several young stars on this team, who's going to stay?  As they hit arbitration and then free agency, there's no way we're going to be able to keep Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Hart, and Hall.  (And I'm not even talking about pitchers right now!)  Hall is locked up for a while, and Braun and Hart are a ways off from getting expensive, so that leaves us with Hardy, Fielder, and Weeks.

Many things can change before these decisions have to be made, but given what we can expect to pay them, and what we've gotten from them so far, who would you keep if you could only keep one of those?  Only two?  Seems to me like the no-brainer of the three is Prince Fielder.  He keeps getting better, he could anchor the lineup for the next decade, and he's a fan favorite already.  He'll be expensive, but great players are expensive.

That leaves Hardy and Weeks.  Before Hardy's hot start, I would've thought he'd come cheap, but now I'm not so sure.  I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Doug try to lock up JJ after the season; if not then, definitely after the following season.  A Bill Hall-like deal, in length and dollar value, seems about right to me.  

So what about Rickie?  There are all sorts of unknowns at play here: to what extent will his wrist injury recur?  When will he start to develop the long-awaited power?  (That's related to the first question, of course.)  Is he a long-term solution at second base, or would he need to move?    If we were to shop Rickie, I'd imagine that other teams would have a huge range of responses.  Some would view him as a flyer, in the vein of B.J. Upton right now, while others would still think of him as a superstar waiting to break out.  If one of the GMs in the "superstar" category was sufficiently interested, I can see a deal getting done.

Another thing to consider is the internal replacements available.  It's possible that a deal involving Rickie or JJ would bring back a middle infielder, but perhaps not.  Callix Crabbe is at Nashville, though he probably isn't a future starter.  Hernan Iribarren and Alcides Escobar are now the double-play combo at Huntsville, and while both have been highly touted at some point or other, both carry serious question marks and are probably not any kind of solution until 2009.  Anybody further off than that doesn't really deserve to be in the conversation.  

I don't think this topic is going to matter much in the short term, but I think it's important (for the team's decision-makers, anyway) to have thought this stuff through.  If, say, Sheets gets hurt in his next start and we lose him for the rest of the season, we might get a whole lot more serious about Mark Buehrle.  Maybe we could get Buehrle and a good prospect (I don't know, Gio Gonzalez?) for Weeks.  Would you do it?  If not, what would it take?  

As nice as it must be for a player to be considered "untouchable," almost no one should be.  It's always a matter of price, even if that price may never be met.

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Weeks
Don't forget he may very well likely qualify as a Super Two player after this season (he'll have 2 years, 131 days of service, right at the borderline).

I would say Weeks is the most expendable of those three, but he very well may be the cheapest based on stats so far. Personally, I don't see the team needing to do anything for a while yet with the young guys; first year arbitration salaries usually aren't a huge jump upwards, so it might even be 2009 by the time it becomes a real issue. By then, perhaps Doug may spin a trade of one of the excess, soon-to-be-expensive starters for a big haul of good, young replacements for the players with escalating salaries.

Like you, I don't think the team really has to make many changes this year. Perhaps add a reliever or two, but that's about it. All the talk about casting off "dead weight" makes no sense to me -- first, I don't think there's a player on the team horrible for the roles they fill, and second, I don't think there's any appreciably better replacements out there.

by TheJay on Jun 25, 2007 12:39 PM CDT   0 recs

I was on hold
all the way to Miller Park and in the parking lot with 620 AM when talking trades yesterday, and if the Brewers will go after someone.

The recent poll suggests shoring up the bullpen, which is something we can do.  How about acquiring next year's closer?  Turnbow's not the answer, and CoCo won't be worth the money he'll make.  Unless Moustache is being sneaky and thinks Villanueva can close, we might be better off looking now.  

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Jun 25, 2007 12:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Potential Closers
I tend to think it would be an offseason deal that would bring in a closer, be it a waiver claim, trade of spare parts, or winter meetings blockbuster. Trading for bullpen help midseason always seems to mean paying through the nose. And hey, even though he melted down, I think Turnbow is a perfect example of how waiver pickups can be effective closers, at least for one year. Really, one season at a time is all you need.

by TheJay on Jun 25, 2007 1:46 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I still think...
that next year's closer just might be in Nashville already (Thatcher, Balfour, maybe Bray). I suspect the season will start with Turnbow, but if he fails the offense should be strong enough that the Crew could afford a month-long closer audition if necessary.

by Zeyes on Jun 25, 2007 11:04 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

As always Jeff great article
Fielder is obviously the guy to hold on to.  But Boras is his agent now.  Would we rather have JJ and Rickie locked up or Prince at maybe a higher price? Also I wonder about the starters.  After Sheets they are all solid but not spectacular.  The playoffs are about a few very good pitchers not many solid ones.  I wonder if trading a good part of the farm for a 1a guy would be a good idea?

by dixieflatline on Jun 25, 2007 12:40 PM CDT   0 recs

My
personal preference for who we keep:
  1. Fielder
  2. Braun
  3. Hall
  4. Hardy
  5. Weeks

by The Prospector on Jun 25, 2007 12:51 PM CDT   0 recs

It's hard to say
what Weeks's value is, or his ceiling.  The ones who think he has a high ceiling tend to be familiar with his minor league career and project from there.  In the majors, though, he's given us brief glimmers of hope, but very little else to indicate that he was (is?) the Crew's most highly touted prospect to come around in a long time.  (Though it's hard to believe, he was more prized than Fielder only a few years ago.)

The thing is, what does his future hold?  The injuries and lackluster statistics would suggest that, if you still think he's our long-term answer at second, he won't be cheaper to lock up than now.  (And as Jeff points out, if he's not, then who is?  Fernando Vina?  Ron Belliard?)

(Maybe my annoyance is misplaced, but did we select his brother in the draft, and he told him to go back to school?)

I'm also curious about what we'll do with Sheets, who turns 30 next summer.

As far as Weeks, Fielder, and Hardy are concerned, I'm not convinced we can't sign all three of them.  Fielder is the only one who will be truly expensive, and rightly so.  Weeks and Hardy are both injury risks, though, in the past and present, and that might put a cap on their salary demands.  To do so would require a payroll upwards of $90 million, but the crowds seem to have really responded to the team.  If we can work out a better TV deal, I can see it.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Jun 25, 2007 12:54 PM CDT   0 recs

TV Deal
Certain previous owners screwed the team in the TV area...the current deal goes through 20-friggin'-12. It's mentioned in the second entry here. Attanasio says it's the lowest in baseball, though every small-market team probably says that so who really knows.

by TheJay on Jun 25, 2007 1:39 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

who can play a full season?
Things are entirely too congenial around here lately, so I feel compelled to lob a grenade at one of my (former) regular targets.  After a hot start through April and May, Hardy fell off in June, and now has been sitting out with an ill-defined back injury.  It's not outside the realm of possibility that he's been trying to play through pain for a while now, and that his injury is more serious than the Brewers have let on (Doug and Ned lie about player health?  Never!)

So, until JJ and Rickie show an ability to play 140+ games per season, I see them as the expendable players.  Fielder has been a consistent (and consistently healthy) star player for the team, and continues to get better.  JJ and Rickie show flashes of huge ability, and then either go into extended slumps or on the DL.  It's a no-brainer for me.

I'd be actively looking to trade one of them now, actually.

by Marty McSuperFly on Jun 25, 2007 12:58 PM CDT   0 recs

That is one thing
We heard about Weeks and Fielder as uber-prospects.  Hardy's ceiling, though, was never well-defined.  I don't think he was touted as the slugger he is now.  I thought his ceiling was more a .300 hitter with 15-20 HR power and a slick glove.

If that's the case, then, yes, trading him might not be a bad idea.

The only problem with selling high is that, like with Weeks, we really don't have adequate backups.  Counsellino on a regular basis won't get us far in the playoffs.  If it were fantasy baseball, selling high on Hardy would make sense; I'm not sure it translates well in real life.

"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Jun 25, 2007 1:08 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Trading Hardy now?
I think that makes little sense. Even if he doesn't really have the power he's shown this year, the team still has a pretty good shortstop being paid the minimum. From a trade standpoint, you might not get as much later as you would now, but economically, it makes sense to hold onto cheap, solid production, especially at SS, for as long as possible. Heck, guys like Counsell and Graffanino get paid five times as much as Hardy because they can play short in a pinch.

by TheJay on Jun 25, 2007 1:42 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

What about the injuries?
JJ Hardy, as a professional baseball player

2001  40 Games
2002  122 Games
2003  114 Games
2004  26 Games
2005  124 Games
2006  35 Games

And now he's feeling some pain in his back, which had also been his knee and his hip.  If someone were to offer a (slightly less) talented young player in return for JJ Hardy and his injury risk, wouldn't that be an easy decision to make?

by Marty McSuperFly on Jun 25, 2007 1:54 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Games
How many games total was he on his team's roster for in 2001 & 2002? That might skew the numbers a little since lower minor leagues don't play as many.

If a team does offer a young player akin to Hardy who seems more durable, then it would make sense to strike a deal. I just don't see any reason to hurry and get rid of him right now.

by TheJay on Jun 25, 2007 2:08 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

agreed
Jeff demanded to know who was expendable, though :)

On the flip side, not expendable:

Fielder
Hart
Villanueva
Gallardo
Hall

by Marty McSuperFly on Jun 25, 2007 2:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Villanueva???
I mean, I really like the guy and want him to be a Brewer for a long time, but one of my points is that it's a very rare player who ought to be truly untouchable.

Carlos V. is nothing like that player.  I certainly hope Doug won't do something rash and trade him for Octavio Dotel or something, but the price at which I would part with Carlos isn't that astronomically high.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 25, 2007 2:21 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Actually
He and Hall were emotional selections for me.  I consider the other three to be as untouchable as any player can be, though.

by Marty McSuperFly on Jun 25, 2007 2:32 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Hart
Fair enough.

I'll dispute Hart, though, too.  Obviously it would take one hell of a package to pry him away, but we're seeing him live up to all of the potential we've hoped for from him right now.  I think he'll keep producing like this for years, but his value might end up being higher right now than at any other point.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 25, 2007 2:39 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

No dice
His value is high because he's producing at a high level, and all indications are that he will continue to produce at a high level.  There's really no downside to Hart.  He's a nice guy, a good teammate, he's producing at a high level, and he presents very little injury risk.  I just don't see a scenario where the team gets better by giving him up.

by Marty McSuperFly on Jun 25, 2007 2:43 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

OK...
here's a scenario: Hart for Homer Bailey and Adam Dunn.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 25, 2007 3:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Seems unlikely
Even if the Reds were willing to offer such a thing, I don't know about that trade.  I think that Hart will be a much better player than Dunn from this point forward (having his prime years ahead of him), and dealing for pitching doesn't improve the team today.  If we can't figure out where to put Gallardo, where will we put Bailey?

The only reason I can think of to trade a young player with low salary is to offload some sort of risk on to another team willing to bear that risk in return for a talent premium in the trade.  Weeks and Hardy are players with some injury risk, and so I'd be receptive to offers for them.  Hart has nothing but upside, and so I'd try to nail him down for arbitration plus a couple years.

I expect the fate of the Brewers is to remain a young team, and not be able to re-sign their free agents past whatever deal carries them through arbitration.  Old players with huge salaries are just not a luxury they can afford.

by Marty McSuperFly on Jun 25, 2007 3:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

...which is fine with me
see Inxie, J
"C'mon, boys, let's get 'em some RUNS!" --- Daron Sutton, pretty much every game of the 2005 season.

by roguejim on Jun 25, 2007 3:23 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

oops
I should mention that I'd be looking for beneficial trades....not actively shopping Weeks and Hardy.  If another team were to make an outstanding offer, the Brewers should pull the trigger, but only for an offer that recognizes the sizeable upside of a healthy Weeks or Hardy.  My intention is simply to offload the injury risk to a team willing to give up comparable talent in return.

by Marty McSuperFly on Jun 25, 2007 1:19 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't see anybody getting traded....
From the major league roster.  We've gotten used to the idea of trading for prospects to become a contending team.

Now we are a contending team.  I would not trade an established starter for a prospect, when the chances of making the playoffs are good.

We could do the opposite and trade a prospect for an established guy, but I don't see a veteran out there that is really any better than what we have.

Jermaine Dye had a phenomenal year in 2006, but aside from that, is he really any better than Jenkins?

The guy I worry most about losing is Carlos V.  

He would be attractive to a lot of teams, and he might be viewed as expendable for the right deal.

by grant76 on Jun 25, 2007 1:47 PM CDT   0 recs

side not
I seen we signed matt laporta today. Not that it is a surprise or anything, just good to get it done.

by Bigdogg2002 on Jun 25, 2007 1:52 PM CDT   0 recs

Maybe it's just me...
But I trust the stache... He's always go something up his sleeve. And look what he's built so far. That is why I don't like to speculate.

But as far as I see it the only holes that need fixing are RP & LF.

Thine Savior is not Sir Braun, but Commander Gallardo.

by CATALYST on Jun 25, 2007 3:44 PM CDT   0 recs

Yes
Trust in stache.  Despite my reservations with the Lee for Mench/Cordero trade, that worked out well.

I have arbitrarily put "no deal" for the team at 90% with the balance committed to a fair offer on a middle reliever.  The key players on the team aren't going anywhere, and if you consider Elmer Dessens in that category, please let me know your home address.

by nmc on Jun 25, 2007 4:39 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Great Thread!
You know one of those guys will go someday...
My list right now:
  1. Prince
  2. Hart
  3. JJ
  4. Rickie
(formerly engbjm06)

by Jamie in LA on Jun 25, 2007 8:18 PM CDT   0 recs

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