Organizational Prospects
by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 10:31 AM CDT
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintHere's something to chew on during the long bus ride to Cincinnati.
It seems to me that with the call-up of Manny Parra, we're pretty much done promoting our ready-for-prime-time players from Nashville. It's quite the extensive list, too:
- we have Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Hardy, Hall, and Hart pretty much entrenched as our regulars for the next several years, with Gwynn kind of riding the fence between starter and bench player. Of the eight non-pitching positions, only catcher and left field have not been filled by a legitimate prospect from our system; if Gwynn is the real deal and we can move Hall to left, it would only leave catcher. (Not to knock our Estrada/Miller combo, but there's something to be said for a home-grown product whose salary you control and who hasn't hit 25 yet, not to mention 30.)
- our pitching prospects had been decimated with injuries over the years, but Gallardo looks like he could be an ace, and Villanueva might round into form as a #2-3 starter, if that's how we use him. It's too early to say what we have in Parra, though I bet he'll be in the running for a rotation spot next spring. He hasn't pitched much for us yet, but what we've seen is encouraging.
In looking at our players in Nashville, I don't really see anyone who is breaking down the door to be let in, exactly. Instead, I see guys who could be useful in short stints in the majors, but who probably have found a home in AAA. (And to be honest, if we still had Nelson Cruz, that might be an accurate description for him.)
So that's Question #1:
Looking outside of Nashville leads us to Question #2:
The easy answer is Matt LaPorta, whom I'm guessing we'll first see as a September callup in 2009. I think Jeremy Jeffress might be our next big pitcher, though Mike Jones is pitching well. (Isn't he another of our oft-injured pitchers?) How about position players? We all heard Ryan Braun's name well before he arrived: is that because of the hole we had at third base, or because he was a much better prospect than, say, Mat Gamel? Is Angel Salome a legitimate catching prospect? Do we have another Ryan Braun lurking in our system? If not, do we have another Corey Hart in our system, someone who isn't as highy touted but might very well turn out to be above-average for his position?
I guess that's my problem: I don't get a sense that we have a position player or pitcher in our system that everyone is excited about. I have no sense if Lorenzo Cain is an actual prospect or someone who will either flame out in AAA or turn into Lyle Mouton.
What do you all think? The first wave of prospects have arrived, and we won't be able to re-sign them all. Who do you think we have in our minor-league system to take their place?
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be patient, not greedy
Keep in mind, just look at our minor league teams records, and dont forget that whatever developmental program these guys have been put on, have been pretty successful.
by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 10:46 AM CDT reply actions
Well
What to make of the fact that our minor league teams are winning is a topic for another day. Is winning indicative of them playing well as a team, or of individual ability, or both? I guess although having the AA and A teams perform well is always a good thing, I don't know if that's necessarily an indication that we have future ML starters in there. It could be a team full of Nixes and Sarfates.
Hmmm.
I'm not sure what you mean. Do you mean all in a short amount of time? That's probably true: lots of high draft picks will do that (ahem, eventually). However, over the long haul, we'll have to be good at drafting/acquiring minor league talent to restock our major-league club. I assume that's the second half of The Plan: to maintain a quality team by having our minor-league system produce instead of relying on Jeffrey Hammonds-type FA signings. (It seems to me big FA signings are just as likely to cripple a team as help, and we'll never have the payroll to afford big-ticket mistakes.)
Anyway, that's where I'm at: what players are people here looking at as future break-out players? Who will we see starting in Miller Park in 2010?
What i meant...
Im not saying we will never have a star come up through the minors, but i doubt we'll have this many at this same rate.
by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
oh sure
I know our minor league teams are good, but I'm asking abot the individual players to see who, if any, has major-league starter potential, and who will be playing at Miller Park in 2011.
live in the now bro
My point is, dont worry about the farm system when this team is so young and good. It may not look like there is a lot of stars, but they can come out of nowhere. so relax and enjoy the rest of the season.
by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, there's the now
Hmm
Except 1957 and 1958 are one year apart. The 1957-1982-2007 thing is nice for marketing and all, but not for planning a team's future. If it was, you probably could buy Super Bowl LXI tickets on the Packers website. :)
listen...
Of course its not going to happen, but if you think about it that way, then the minors doesnt look so bleak.
Like i said earlier, if we win and make the playoffs, more money is coming in and more money can be payed to keep these guys.
On a totally separate note, does anyone ever think how American our team is? This could truly be America's team for the future. Our entire starting lineup is American. Sheets, Suppan,bush, Cappy, and Gallardo (moved to america when he was 3, i think) all American. Really only Coco, vargas,balfour, and Villy are foreign. THis seems rare to me, this also seems like an assignment for TheJay.
by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Whoa there
"Of course its not going to happen, but if you think about it that way, then the minors doesnt look so bleak."
As TheJay would say, uhh, what? If you know it's not going to happen that way, why would you look at our minors from that perspective? That's the kind of attitude that will get you to the playoffs only once in a generation.
I wouldn't say our minor league system now is bleak, either, though I don't have many names to point to right now to suggest otherwise. Middle infield seems like a big concern to me: neither Rickie nor JJ is playing superfantastically right now, nor is either a model for staying free from injury. To expect 10 years of injury-free production from both of them seems like a long shot right now.
For your other point, I think I heard somewhere that we do have a lot (the most?) American-born players. It's interesting, isn't it? Some of that, though, might be due to the fact that we've only recently started to establish a system of looking at and signing players from outside the US, which is to our detriment. We're behind several teams in that regard.
weird
That's a negative, not a positive. if you are drawing from a smaller talent pool, you put yourself at a disadvantage. Also, celebrating a lack of diversity smacks of small-mindedness. Especially one year removed from the celebration of major league baseball for it's international diversity.
are you guys reading what i write?
As for the minors, im going to revert to my original point,stop being greedy. As it looks now, the last two years of callups for the brewers could be one of the best in recent history. Look at these guys who keep coming up and producing. Every team in the majors would like to be in the brewers position, in regards to their young talent.
If you want our minors to be super talented again, we could always send parra, gallardo, and braun back down. Is this what you want, probably not.
by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Hey take it easy
As for me, I don't think I'm being greedy, exactly. I'm not demanding that we have Ryan Brauns at every position in our minor leagues, though that would be nice. I'm just trying to get a bead on what the feeling is on the talent we have coming up. Do any of these guys project to be makor-league starters? If so, who? If not, that's going to be something we'll need to address over the next few years, as we lose players to injury, free agency, what have you. Now that we've built up a pretty good major-league team, it's time to start building up the minors to supplement it.
Really, this is all stemming from the Minor League Notes that John puts out every day. When you see R. A. Dickey have a good game, my first thought is if he is someone who can help the big-league club in time, or not? There are people here who knows these players more than I do, so I wanted to see what the consensus was. Are there players in our minors who stand out?
are you reading what you write?
This could truly be America's team for the future.
Your reasoning, unless you are intentionally writing in non-sequiturs (if so let us know so we can stop reading) is this:
Our entire starting lineup is American.
Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what you are saying there, which is having american born baseball players to root for is preferable for americans.
I'm only trying to do you a favor here... So take this as a friendly tip. I wouldn't go around advertising that this is what you truly think.
with america's team quote
Its not like its racist to say that americans want to root for americans. This is why people watch the olympics. It may be nationalistic, but not in any way detrimental.
Thanks for the friendly tip though. People are proud to be americans and they want to root for them. The funny thing about this argument is, is that without knowing any of you personally, i can correctly assume that i am probably one of the most liberal people on this site. In other words, I dont mind diversity, i just understand realism.
by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions
if you want to be wisconsin's team
But at a national level, remember that players like David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, etc. are embraced, BIG TIME, by people of their ethnicity. (Same, obviously, with Japanese players.)
If you really want to have "America's Team," it'd consist of a couple of big-name white players (check), a couple of big-name afro-americans (check), a dominican (nope), a venezuelan (nope), and a japanese (nope). No team is ever going to purposefully aim for that, but it's interesting to note that the Yankees and Mets are often close.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 23, 2007 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions
purposefully
By the way, Villenuevea is from the dominican republic.
by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions
laporta
As much as that would be awesome...
by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 23, 2007 12:00 PM CDT reply actions
I've been waiting for this...
I think we can stick a fork in Brad Nelson... Other than that I'm excited about some of the young outfielders...
Exactly
I'm pulling for Callix Crabbe though. If he makes it to the major-league club, I guearantee you I'm buying a jersey.
Anderson
Parra
Jonathan LuCroy
I don't know much either
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 23, 2007 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Brewers Minor league System
For the crew to maintain a healthy set of Future stars we need to keep Jack. His ability to draft well and help Melvin pull young talent from other teams says it all.
by Hot dog and Diet Coke on Jul 23, 2007 1:04 PM CDT reply actions
Amen brother!
by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 23, 2007 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I would think so too
Also, it's worth noting that although Jack Z. turned out franchise around from our drafts, he did so with the "luxury" of high draft picks. The true test will be seeing what he can do with the 20th overall pick instead of the 3rd.
there's no way i'd make that trade...
however, i have no clue how jack would make trades and whatnot.
just remember, dean taylor hired jack z and while they had good drafts together...dean had no clue how to run a major league ball club. i wouldn't want to see him go, but i'd rather have doug than jack if given the choice. and hope that doug could find another coup in the scouting world or perhaps hire someone from within already.
Good point
Also, would we want an untested GM forging out and trying to make trades on a pennant-contending team For my money - and since I live in Oakland, CA I can't spend much money on the Crew at ball games :( - I think it is better to have an experienced and successful GM like Moustache.
by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 23, 2007 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Doug > Zduriencik
Maybe Zduriencik will end up as a trade guru. Maybe no team does actually want him as GM and this is all academic. In my view, the good thing the Brewers have going in Melvin & Ash is worth more than keeping Zduriencik.
I'm confident that organizational pieces will develop either from the players we have in the low minors (who, I don't know) or through trades of players we won't want to or can't afford to sign after they are done with arbitration in the future (Capuano? Bush? Estrada next season?).
high draft picks
Contrast that to some late 1st and supplemental picks like David Wright, Phil Hughes, Saltalamacchia ...heck LaPorta might have been available at #25 this year had Milwaukee not gone for him at #7.
Of course it's easier to have success with #5 than with #25, but I suspect that a really good guy running the draft (especially if he's got the money to go over-slot, as the Yankees and Mets always can) is more important than where you draft.
Mike Jones
28.1 IP in 6 starts
34 hits allowed
21 runs allowed
and a 16/12 K/BB rate
Am I missing something?
I was looking
At least he is pitching!
by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 23, 2007 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Not pitching so much...
Talk of the Brewers prospects
On another note, does anyone know what happened to Zach Braddock? He was lights out at West Virginia until he went on the DL for a reason I can't find. Also, Jeffress seems to be pitching quite well for the Power, but he is obviously some time away, even if he were to stay healthy.
Of our position player prospects, I am most excited about Angel Salome and Brent Brewer, although both of them are quite a ways off as well.
Maxim
by Hot dog and Diet Coke on Jul 23, 2007 3:37 PM CDT reply actions
I don't
He was released in April
He was never a prospect, though, just org filler.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 23, 2007 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions
on a related note
Maxim
by Jwillie67 on Jul 23, 2007 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions
you'd think
Returning the original question..
Have sabermetrics or traditional scouting methods given a sense of what we can project from him in the future?
by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 23, 2007 4:41 PM CDT reply actions
We do seem
He's small for a catcher
You can find his PECOTA profile (from 2/28) here : http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/SALOME19860608A.php
Thanks...
by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 23, 2007 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I, for one,
Since the Brewers will likely never have a payroll much over 80 mil, if that, Melvin will obviously not be able to keep all these guys who will hit free agency within a couple years of each other. Besides, with the arby years approaching(and hopefully a early-arby lockup or two like Bill Halls), they will start to get expensive before that. Melvin won't be able to have 10 mil invested in a LF platoon. With 10 mil tied up in our 3rd or 4th starter there will players that have to be let go.(Sheets, for example - hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.)
I see no problem in theorizing what the front office needs to consider for the future, prognosticating prospects, or lamenting certain free agent signings. Hell, isn't half the game thread devoted to second guessing managerial decisions?
Call me greedy, but with the competence Melvin has shown during his tenure here, I expect to remain competitive past the 2010 season. If the Twins, Indians and A's can do it, why can't we? How do we get there? I don't know, but it sure is fun to contemplate. Maybe I'm just a freakin' geek who gets off on this sort of stuff. :)
by throughhyperspace on Jul 23, 2007 5:25 PM CDT reply actions
There will be breathing room
Unless Jenks goes crazy with bat the rest of the way I don't see his club option being renewed- 7.33 mil
I doubt Graffy will stay- 3.25 mil
That's about 14.33 million clearing the books.
Maybe/Maybe not's...
Cordero will be a free agent. Will he re- sign?
currently costs-5.425 mil
Dessens- 1.7 mil
Mench- 3.4 mil
D Miller- 2.25
another potential- 12.775 million
After increases in Sheets/Suppan/Hall/Others contracts, there should still be a lot of extra cash. Not to mention brisk sales at Miller Park, Added market revenue, etc.
I have full confidence that the Brewers financial picture should be able to weather signing most of these kids.
by Hot dog and Diet Coke on Jul 23, 2007 10:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I counted $17+ million in that first group.
My guess is that Cordero will be gone. I think someone will throw crazy money at him. Most of the teams with money have closers, but if the Yankees get in the bidding he could leverage the Brewers.
The Brewers will need to do something with Sheets next year. I think they will try to sign him to an extension in the offseason, but he may want to prove he can stay healthy and then test the market. If Suppan is worth $10 million, I think we will probably spend about $12 mill for 4 years to extend him beyond next year (signed in advance, hometown discount, injuries).
That will be an interesting conversation
Heres what I found
Off the books:
Brady Clark - 2.1mil
Koskie - 2 mil (Blue Jays responsible for other 3.75
Cordero - 5.4 mil (Unfortunately, he's probably unaffordable)
Graffanino - 3.2 mil (If Rickie doesn't prove he's healthy/productive, do you consider resigning him? Give the job to Rottino? Find another Graf-type?)
Dressens - Kansas City is paying his salary this year. So, $0.
Jenkins - 7 mil
Total - 19.7 mil
Increases:
Sheets - 1 mil
Suppan - 2 mil
Hall - 1.8 mil
Turnbow - 1 mil
Jenkins and Koskie buyouts - .75 mil
Total - 6.55 mil
Arbitration notes:
- Estrada and Mench are going into their last year of arbitration, they averaged a 1.5 mil raise each last year.
- Cappy and Vargas are in the same position Estrada and Mench were last year. 2(1.5 mil)?
- Weeks' draft day contract runs out. He made 1.32 mil this year. Is he a super two at 2.131 yrs service time? If so, I'd imagine at least a 2 mil increase.
- Hardy hits arbitration for the first time. Made .4 mil in '07. 3 mil in 08?
- Bush hits arbitration for the first time. Cappy got a 3 mil raise when he did so this year.
- Wise and Shouse are due raises.
- While Balfour and Aquino are arby eligible, I'm not counting them. Who knows if they'll still be here.
The following year Hart and Fielder hit arbitration. Obviously some huge increases there.
Miller - With Rivera's numbers this year, I would like to keep him. At what price? I don't know.
Free agent signings?
As for the revenue from Miller Park, last year the payroll was about 58 mil and Attanasio said they made about 2 mil, if memory serves. Now its at 71 mil. All that increased revenue isn't going to make up much more than that difference. But with our new owner's business acumen, hopefully we can keep the payroll at or above 70m most years without losing money. When they can get a new TV contract, maybe more. I think thats quite a few years away though.
In summary, between contract increases and arbitration, my very rough estimate leaves us +3 mil w/o any free agents. Not exactly the geatest breathing room to sign Sheets, JJ and Rickie then Hart and Fielder followed by CV with Braun and Gallardo shortly afterwards. Thankfully they are spaced apart over 4-5 years, but it still seems like only 3 or 4 of them will be affordable long term.
by throughhyperspace on Jul 24, 2007 11:12 AM CDT reply actions
Future buying power
I guess my hopes are the added revenue. In concert with the marginal ticket/concession and parking increases, the attendance is on pace to be ahead 20-25% over 2006.
Also, Nielsen was severely underreporting FSN ratings for the Brewers. Hopefully that will mean future TV dollar increases for the club.
And to another degree, team merchandise sales are up considerably. Every little bit helps.
It won't be easy and we won't keep everyone, But I think we can keep most. And with MOUSTACHE in charge to fill in the gaps...They should remain powerful.
by Hot dog and Diet Coke on Jul 24, 2007 3:32 PM CDT reply actions
Quick aside
Warcheck(phonetically correct, but intentionally misspelled)
by throughhyperspace on Jul 24, 2007 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions
10-3
by Hot dog and Diet Coke on Jul 24, 2007 3:57 PM CDT reply actions
Warichak
by Hot dog and Diet Coke on Jul 24, 2007 3:58 PM CDT reply actions
Wait no...
by Hot dog and Diet Coke on Jul 24, 2007 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions
lol
by throughhyperspace on Jul 24, 2007 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions
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Cincinnati
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Houston
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