Organizational Prospects

by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 10:31 AM CDT in News

Here's something to chew on during the long bus ride to Cincinnati.

It seems to me that with the call-up of Manny Parra, we're pretty much done promoting our ready-for-prime-time players from Nashville. It's quite the extensive list, too:

we have Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Hardy, Hall, and Hart pretty much entrenched as our regulars for the next several years, with Gwynn kind of riding the fence between starter and bench player. Of the eight non-pitching positions, only catcher and left field have not been filled by a legitimate prospect from our system; if Gwynn is the real deal and we can move Hall to left, it would only leave catcher. (Not to knock our Estrada/Miller combo, but there's something to be said for a home-grown product whose salary you control and who hasn't hit 25 yet, not to mention 30.)
our pitching prospects had been decimated with injuries over the years, but Gallardo looks like he could be an ace, and Villanueva might round into form as a #2-3 starter, if that's how we use him. It's too early to say what we have in Parra, though I bet he'll be in the running for a rotation spot next spring. He hasn't pitched much for us yet, but what we've seen is encouraging.

But what of our guys at AAA? Follow me over the flip, won't you?

In looking at our players in Nashville, I don't really see anyone who is breaking down the door to be let in, exactly. Instead, I see guys who could be useful in short stints in the majors, but who probably have found a home in AAA. (And to be honest, if we still had Nelson Cruz, that might be an accurate description for him.)

So that's Question #1:

Do you see anyone at AAA who you think warrants starting on the Brewers in the next year or two?

There are some I'm on the fence about --- for example, I coud see Laynce Nix being called up, though not really as a regular. The same with Vinny Rotino: I'm not sure he can hit enough to project into an above-average major-league starter. (Which isn't to say he wouldn't be useful to the club as a utility guy, mind you.) Even one of my favorites, Zach Action Jackson, isn't pitching as well as I expected, and I'm not sure at all if he'll make the jump to the majors, even as an end-of-the-rotation guy. (Hey, remember when Brad Nelson was an up-and-comer? Me neither.) Dennis Sarfate doesn't count either.

Looking outside of Nashville leads us to Question #2:

Throughout all levels in the Brewers' minor-league system, whom do you think we should be keeping an eye on?

The easy answer is Matt LaPorta, whom I'm guessing we'll first see as a September callup in 2009. I think Jeremy Jeffress might be our next big pitcher, though Mike Jones is pitching well. (Isn't he another of our oft-injured pitchers?) How about position players? We all heard Ryan Braun's name well before he arrived: is that because of the hole we had at third base, or because he was a much better prospect than, say, Mat Gamel? Is Angel Salome a legitimate catching prospect? Do we have another Ryan Braun lurking in our system? If not, do we have another Corey Hart in our system, someone who isn't as highy touted but might very well turn out to be above-average for his position?

I guess that's my problem: I don't get a sense that we have a position player or pitcher in our system that everyone is excited about. I have no sense if Lorenzo Cain is an actual prospect or someone who will either flame out in AAA or turn into Lyle Mouton.

What do you all think? The first wave of prospects have arrived, and we won't be able to re-sign them all. Who do you think we have in our minor-league system to take their place?

0 recs | Comment 59 comments

Story-email Email | Print |

Comments

be patient, not greedy

We have been so fortunate to accumulate so much talent from the minors. We probably will never do that again. Its been an exciting year with call ups but im sure someone young gun will emerge in the future, much like gallardo.

Keep in mind, just look at our minor league teams records, and dont forget that whatever developmental program these guys have been put on, have been pretty successful.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 10:46 AM CDT 0 recs

Well

It's certainly worth some time to look and see what we have. Part of the small-market plan is to replenish from within, so at some point you have to look and see if your minor leaguers will be up to the task.

What to make of the fact that our minor league teams are winning is a topic for another day. Is winning indicative of them playing well as a team, or of individual ability, or both? I guess although having the AA and A teams perform well is always a good thing, I don't know if that's necessarily an indication that we have future ML starters in there. It could be a team full of Nixes and Sarfates.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 10:58 AM CDT up 0 recs

Hmmm.

"We probably will never do that again."

I'm not sure what you mean. Do you mean all in a short amount of time? That's probably true: lots of high draft picks will do that (ahem, eventually). However, over the long haul, we'll have to be good at drafting/acquiring minor league talent to restock our major-league club. I assume that's the second half of The Plan: to maintain a quality team by having our minor-league system produce instead of relying on Jeffrey Hammonds-type FA signings. (It seems to me big FA signings are just as likely to cripple a team as help, and we'll never have the payroll to afford big-ticket mistakes.)

Anyway, that's where I'm at: what players are people here looking at as future break-out players? Who will we see starting in Miller Park in 2010?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 11:06 AM CDT up 0 recs

What i meant...

Do you forsee 2 legitimate MVP candidates coming up within the span of a year and a half of eachother in one organization. I dont see that happening for a long time in this organization. By 2 i mean braun and Prince. Thats not even taking into consideration hart,hardy,rickie, gallardo, and Villy.

Im not saying we will never have a star come up through the minors, but i doubt we'll have this many at this same rate.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 12:25 PM CDT up 0 recs

oh sure

and that's exactly my point: ~do~ we have a star waiting in the wings in our minor leagues? What are we projecting from Cain, Gamel, et al.?

I know our minor league teams are good, but I'm asking abot the individual players to see who, if any, has major-league starter potential, and who will be playing at Miller Park in 2011.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 1:07 PM CDT up 0 recs

live in the now bro

I dont know if you realize this, but the milwaukee teams make the world series every 25 years exactly. This just so happens to be 25 years from the last. So, enjoy this team now, cause it could be another 25.

My point is, dont worry about the farm system when this team is so young and good. It may not look like there is a lot of stars, but they can come out of nowhere. so relax and enjoy the rest of the season.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 1:23 PM CDT up 0 recs

Well, there's the now

and there's the soon after. I don't want to have to wait for another 25 years, you know?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 1:42 PM CDT up 0 recs

Hmm

I dont know if you realize this, but the milwaukee teams make the world series every 25 years exactly.

Except 1957 and 1958 are one year apart. The 1957-1982-2007 thing is nice for marketing and all, but not for planning a team's future. If it was, you probably could buy Super Bowl LXI tickets on the Packers website. :)

Joe Borchard 2007 watch: 194 PA, 57 K, 55 TB, .199/.294/.322 -- "There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.

by TheJay on Jul 23, 2007 2:32 PM CDT up 0 recs

listen...

the brewers are good now. Almost there entire team is young. We dont know exactly how attanasio will pay these guys, but its safe to assume that if we start making the playoffs he's going to dole out the money. Lets just say that he pays them all. Lets also assume that they are all going to be good (probably wont happen but you never know). That means we can have prince, jj, braun, and rickie locked up until 2007 and all the guys would be 33-35. So we dont need any infield studs for 10 years. We'll also say corey will be here for 10 years, and bill hall for 5. so in the next five years, all we need is a left fielder. Who's that i hear, ah... Matt Laporta. So all we need is a catcher...Angel?

Of course its not going to happen, but if you think about it that way, then the minors doesnt look so bleak.

Like i said earlier, if we win and make the playoffs, more money is coming in and more money can be payed to keep these guys.

On a totally separate note, does anyone ever think how American our team is? This could truly be America's team for the future. Our entire starting lineup is American. Sheets, Suppan,bush, Cappy, and Gallardo (moved to america when he was 3, i think) all American. Really only Coco, vargas,balfour, and Villy are foreign. THis seems rare to me, this also seems like an assignment for TheJay.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 3:13 PM CDT up 0 recs

Whoa there

So the plan is that all of our current "core" will remain good and largely free from injury, and we will be able to sign them all until their mid-30s?

"Of course its not going to happen, but if you think about it that way, then the minors doesnt look so bleak."

As TheJay would say, uhh, what? If you know it's not going to happen that way, why would you look at our minors from that perspective? That's the kind of attitude that will get you to the playoffs only once in a generation.

I wouldn't say our minor league system now is bleak, either, though I don't have many names to point to right now to suggest otherwise. Middle infield seems like a big concern to me: neither Rickie nor JJ is playing superfantastically right now, nor is either a model for staying free from injury. To expect 10 years of injury-free production from both of them seems like a long shot right now.

For your other point, I think I heard somewhere that we do have a lot (the most?) American-born players. It's interesting, isn't it? Some of that, though, might be due to the fact that we've only recently started to establish a system of looking at and signing players from outside the US, which is to our detriment. We're behind several teams in that regard.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 3:27 PM CDT up 0 recs

weird

Our entire starting lineup is American.

That's a negative, not a positive. if you are drawing from a smaller talent pool, you put yourself at a disadvantage. Also, celebrating a lack of diversity smacks of small-mindedness. Especially one year removed from the celebration of major league baseball for it's international diversity.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 23, 2007 3:43 PM CDT up 0 recs

are you guys reading what i write?

I never said it was positive or negative, i only made the comment about it. Also, we have the best record in the national league. So it doesnt seem to be hurting us that much.

As for the minors, im going to revert to my original point,stop being greedy. As it looks now, the last two years of callups for the brewers could be one of the best in recent history. Look at these guys who keep coming up and producing. Every team in the majors would like to be in the brewers position, in regards to their young talent.

If you want our minors to be super talented again, we could always send parra, gallardo, and braun back down. Is this what you want, probably not.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 3:52 PM CDT up 0 recs

Hey take it easy

I don't think anyone is criticizing you. It is interesting that we have so many American players, though it's probably to our detriment. It sounds like we're all in (relative) agreement there.

As for me, I don't think I'm being greedy, exactly. I'm not demanding that we have Ryan Brauns at every position in our minor leagues, though that would be nice. I'm just trying to get a bead on what the feeling is on the talent we have coming up. Do any of these guys project to be makor-league starters? If so, who? If not, that's going to be something we'll need to address over the next few years, as we lose players to injury, free agency, what have you. Now that we've built up a pretty good major-league team, it's time to start building up the minors to supplement it.

Really, this is all stemming from the Minor League Notes that John puts out every day. When you see R. A. Dickey have a good game, my first thought is if he is someone who can help the big-league club in time, or not? There are people here who knows these players more than I do, so I wanted to see what the consensus was. Are there players in our minors who stand out?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 4:02 PM CDT up 0 recs

are you reading what you write?

you think this would be cool, right? at least that's the implication:

This could truly be America's team for the future.

Your reasoning, unless you are intentionally writing in non-sequiturs (if so let us know so we can stop reading) is this:

Our entire starting lineup is American.

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what you are saying there, which is having american born baseball players to root for is preferable for americans.

I'm only trying to do you a favor here... So take this as a friendly tip. I wouldn't go around advertising that this is what you truly think.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 23, 2007 4:11 PM CDT up 0 recs

with america's team quote

im trying to make a point that maybe america could really embrace this team if they make the playoffs. The more attention they get,the more money comes in to re-sign these guys.

Its not like its racist to say that americans want to root for americans. This is why people watch the olympics. It may be nationalistic, but not in any way detrimental.

Thanks for the friendly tip though. People are proud to be americans and they want to root for them. The funny thing about this argument is, is that without knowing any of you personally, i can correctly assume that i am probably one of the most liberal people on this site. In other words, I dont mind diversity, i just understand realism.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 4:29 PM CDT up 0 recs

if you want to be wisconsin's team

you're probably right.

But at a national level, remember that players like David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, etc. are embraced, BIG TIME, by people of their ethnicity. (Same, obviously, with Japanese players.)

If you really want to have "America's Team," it'd consist of a couple of big-name white players (check), a couple of big-name afro-americans (check), a dominican (nope), a venezuelan (nope), and a japanese (nope). No team is ever going to purposefully aim for that, but it's interesting to note that the Yankees and Mets are often close.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 23, 2007 5:08 PM CDT up 0 recs

purposefully

I dont think the brewers purposefully aimed for this and i wouldnt want them to. I just thought it was ironic and if they make the playoffs, i can see a broadcaster making a comment about it.

By the way, Villenuevea is from the dominican republic.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Jul 23, 2007 10:39 PM CDT up 0 recs

laporta

i'll wager that laporta is a september '07 callup and sticks with the club out of spring training '08. :)

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 23, 2007 11:14 AM CDT 0 recs

As much as that would be awesome...

..for him to be major league ready and mentally ready for the pennant chase in his first year of pro-ball (much less completely healthy), I imagine the earliest Laporta will have learned to play the outfield and get a September call up would be next year.

by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 23, 2007 12:00 PM CDT 0 recs

I've been waiting for this...

thread to ask questions about some of our guys. Who is Drew Anderson and why is he on our 40-man? Who's Calixe Crabbe and when did we get him? Who from among Cain/Fermaint/Gillespie/Errecart will take a step up? My money's on Cole Gillespie...

I think we can stick a fork in Brad Nelson... Other than that I'm excited about some of the young outfielders...

by balldeagle on Jul 23, 2007 12:29 PM CDT 0 recs

Exactly

I have no idea who Drew Anderson is either. I get the feeling that he's more Lyle Mouton than Bill Hall, but I really don't know.

I'm pulling for Callix Crabbe though. If he makes it to the major-league club, I guearantee you I'm buying a jersey.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 1:09 PM CDT up 0 recs

Anderson

He was a September call-up last year, wasn't he? I thought he was one of those center fielders with speed but no bat type players, but I could be wrong.

Joe Borchard 2007 watch: 194 PA, 57 K, 55 TB, .199/.294/.322 -- "There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.

by TheJay on Jul 23, 2007 1:40 PM CDT up 0 recs

Parra

We'll know more of what we have in Parra this weekend. He is scheduled to start one of the double header games in STL on Sunday. I agree...Laporta won't be called up until next year. He is the only star player that I can see in our minor league system right now...and he hasn't even played a game yet?

Watching Yovani pitch probably compares to driving a Lamborghini Gallardo.

by TAPmoney on Jul 23, 2007 12:30 PM CDT 0 recs

Jonathan LuCroy

I know nothing about his defensive skills, but he's a catcher and our second round pick.

by grant76 on Jul 23, 2007 1:00 PM CDT 0 recs

I don't know much either

but he seems so far like Lou Palmisano redux.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 23, 2007 1:37 PM CDT up 0 recs

Brewers Minor league System

Our Farm talent has been chiefly raised by the genius of Jack Zduriencik, Brewers Scouting Director and Doug Melvin. There have been rumors that Zduriencik is wanted by Pittsbugh(his hometown) to be their next GM.

For the crew to maintain a healthy set of Future stars we need to keep Jack. His ability to draft well and help Melvin pull young talent from other teams says it all.

by Hot dog and Diet Coke on Jul 23, 2007 1:04 PM CDT 0 recs

Amen brother!

But, if he's offered the opportunity to become his own GM, what (besides more money and maybe the title-assistant GM) can we offer to keep him?

by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 23, 2007 1:10 PM CDT up 0 recs

I would think so too

But is Jack Z. more important to us than Moustache? Would we be willing to make him our GM to keep him, if it came to that?

Also, it's worth noting that although Jack Z. turned out franchise around from our drafts, he did so with the "luxury" of high draft picks. The true test will be seeing what he can do with the 20th overall pick instead of the 3rd.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 1:13 PM CDT up 0 recs

there's no way i'd make that trade...

are jack and doug equally important to eachothers success? i think so.
however, i have no clue how jack would make trades and whatnot.
just remember, dean taylor hired jack z and while they had good drafts together...dean had no clue how to run a major league ball club. i wouldn't want to see him go, but i'd rather have doug than jack if given the choice. and hope that doug could find another coup in the scouting world or perhaps hire someone from within already.

Brewers in 07!

by Michael M on Jul 23, 2007 1:23 PM CDT up 0 recs

Good point

But, it is amazing the number of high draft picks who flame out because of character issues, etc. that Z has managed to avoid...aside from Krenzel (sp?).

Also, would we want an untested GM forging out and trying to make trades on a pennant-contending team For my money - and since I live in Oakland, CA I can't spend much money on the Crew at ball games :( - I think it is better to have an experienced and successful GM like Moustache.

by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 23, 2007 1:25 PM CDT up 0 recs

Doug > Zduriencik

I would keep Melvin and Ash together before I sacrificed one (or both) of them to keep Zduriencik. If you have a GM that's capable of making solid trades for useful pieces, it's much easier to make up for the loss in quality (if any) of a different scouting director.

Maybe Zduriencik will end up as a trade guru. Maybe no team does actually want him as GM and this is all academic. In my view, the good thing the Brewers have going in Melvin & Ash is worth more than keeping Zduriencik.

I'm confident that organizational pieces will develop either from the players we have in the low minors (who, I don't know) or through trades of players we won't want to or can't afford to sign after they are done with arbitration in the future (Capuano? Bush? Estrada next season?).

Joe Borchard 2007 watch: 194 PA, 57 K, 55 TB, .199/.294/.322 -- "There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.

by TheJay on Jul 23, 2007 1:54 PM CDT up 0 recs

high draft picks

Obviously it's great to have the series of really high picks that we've had, but I wouldn't get too worried about having to draft in the 20s for a while. First, and obviously, high picks can flame out -- even Rickie Weeks, the cant-miss-iest of the current group (at draft time, anyway), is floundering.

Contrast that to some late 1st and supplemental picks like David Wright, Phil Hughes, Saltalamacchia ...heck LaPorta might have been available at #25 this year had Milwaukee not gone for him at #7.

Of course it's easier to have success with #5 than with #25, but I suspect that a really good guy running the draft (especially if he's got the money to go over-slot, as the Yankees and Mets always can) is more important than where you draft.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 23, 2007 1:40 PM CDT 0 recs

Mike Jones

Did someone say Mike Jones is pitching well? All I see is this:

28.1 IP in 6 starts
34 hits allowed
21 runs allowed
and a 16/12 K/BB rate

Am I missing something?

by mikeynaked on Jul 23, 2007 1:59 PM CDT 0 recs

I was looking

here, which doesn't include this season's stats. Through 2006, though, his numbers look pretty good.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 2:14 PM CDT up 0 recs

At least he is pitching!

Considering the injuries he's had, simply pitching in and of itself is a huge deal. Hopefully he can stay healthy and start to work off the rust so that he be productive next year. After that, we can assess whether Jones can return to prospect status.

by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 23, 2007 4:14 PM CDT up 0 recs

Not pitching so much...

He's actually out for the season with another injury. I want to say Tommy John, but I'm not 100% on that.

by bretsky07 on Jul 23, 2007 6:17 PM CDT up 0 recs

Talk of the Brewers prospects

and no mention of Will Inman? Did everyone just forget about him since he's been promoted to AA and struggled a little bit?

On another note, does anyone know what happened to Zach Braddock? He was lights out at West Virginia until he went on the DL for a reason I can't find. Also, Jeffress seems to be pitching quite well for the Power, but he is obviously some time away, even if he were to stay healthy.

Of our position player prospects, I am most excited about Angel Salome and Brent Brewer, although both of them are quite a ways off as well.

by cappad0nna on Jul 23, 2007 3:26 PM CDT 0 recs

Maxim

Anybody know what happened to catcher Maxim St. Pierre that came over from KC in exchange for Ben Hendrickson?

by Hot dog and Diet Coke on Jul 23, 2007 3:37 PM CDT 0 recs

I don't

though I was also wondering about the other Cordero we received in the Mench/Caballo trade.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 3:40 PM CDT up 0 recs

He was released in April

but he decided to try to convert to pitching, and is (last I heard) in extended spring training with the Brewers doing just that.

He was never a prospect, though, just org filler.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 23, 2007 4:07 PM CDT up 0 recs

on a related note

have you seen what hendrickson has done in AAA this year? starting to look like a fine trade for us.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 23, 2007 4:16 PM CDT up 0 recs

Maxim

I love the name Maxim St. Pierre! If I ever try to revive my career as a porn star, I'm going touse the name Maxim St. Pierre as my stage name.

by Jwillie67 on Jul 23, 2007 5:00 PM CDT up 0 recs

you'd think

a name like J Willie would be OK too.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 5:27 PM CDT up 0 recs

Returning the original question..

What can we expect of Angel Salome? He's young, and it would be great to have a decent catching prospect in the system.

Have sabermetrics or traditional scouting methods given a sense of what we can project from him in the future?

by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 23, 2007 4:41 PM CDT 0 recs

We do seem

to have a lot of catchers. Surely one of them is, well, good, maybe.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 23, 2007 4:42 PM CDT up 0 recs

He's small for a catcher

at 5'7" 190, so "traditional" scouts don't necesarilly think he will make it, but most catchers his size don't make it as far as he already has.

You can find his PECOTA profile (from 2/28) here : http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/SALOME19860608A.php

by cappad0nna on Jul 23, 2007 5:49 PM CDT up 0 recs

Thanks...

It will be interesting to watch how he progresses (or doesn't) and if his size really becomes a hindrance.

by oaklandbrewerfan on Jul 23, 2007 6:06 PM CDT up 0 recs

I, for one,

appreciate a thread like this and the minor league notes everyday. I haven't been following the minors for years, like many here have, so I enjoy the insights that those folks have to offer.

Since the Brewers will likely never have a payroll much over 80 mil, if that, Melvin will obviously not be able to keep all these guys who will hit free agency within a couple years of each other. Besides, with the arby years approaching(and hopefully a early-arby lockup or two like Bill Halls), they will start to get expensive before that. Melvin won't be able to have 10 mil invested in a LF platoon. With 10 mil tied up in our 3rd or 4th starter there will players that have to be let go.(Sheets, for example - hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.)

I see no problem in theorizing what the front office needs to consider for the future, prognosticating prospects, or lamenting certain free agent signings. Hell, isn't half the game thread devoted to second guessing managerial decisions?

Call me greedy, but with the competence Melvin has shown during his tenure here, I expect to remain competitive past the 2010 season. If the Twins, Indians and A's can do it, why can't we? How do we get there? I don't know, but it sure is fun to contemplate. Maybe I'm just a freakin' geek who gets off on this sort of stuff. :)

by throughhyperspace on Jul 23, 2007 5:25 PM CDT 0 recs

There will be breathing room

Koskie won't be back next year- 6.75 mil
Unless Jenks goes crazy with bat the rest of the way I don't see his club option being renewed- 7.33 mil
I doubt Graffy will stay- 3.25 mil

That's about 14.33 million clearing the books.

Maybe/Maybe not's...

Cordero will be a free agent. Will he re- sign?
currently costs-5.425 mil
Dessens- 1.7 mil
Mench- 3.4 mil
D Miller- 2.25

another potential- 12.775 million

After increases in Sheets/Suppan/Hall/Others contracts, there should still be a lot of extra cash. Not to mention brisk sales at Miller Park, Added market revenue, etc.

I have full confidence that the Brewers financial picture should be able to weather signing most of these kids.

by Hot dog and Diet Coke on Jul 23, 2007 10:45 PM CDT up 0 recs

I counted $17+ million in that first group.

Its a good point that some money will be off the books, and only a couple of guys that need to be taken care of.

My guess is that Cordero will be gone. I think someone will throw crazy money at him. Most of the teams with money have closers, but if the Yankees get in the bidding he could leverage the Brewers.

The Brewers will need to do something with Sheets next year. I think they will try to sign him to an extension in the offseason, but he may want to prove he can stay healthy and then test the market. If Suppan is worth $10 million, I think we will probably spend about $12 mill for 4 years to extend him beyond next year (signed in advance, hometown discount, injuries).

by grant76 on Jul 24, 2007 10:46 AM CDT up 0 recs

That will be an interesting conversation

as to whether we should try ro re-sign Sheets. He's going to get crazy money despite the injuries. If he thinks he gets criticism now, wat until he starts making $15 mil/season and goes on the DL for a stubbed toe.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 24, 2007 11:17 AM CDT up 0 recs

Heres what I found

My source for players contract status is http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/

Off the books:
Brady Clark - 2.1mil
Koskie - 2 mil (Blue Jays responsible for other 3.75
Cordero - 5.4 mil (Unfortunately, he's probably unaffordable)
Graffanino - 3.2 mil (If Rickie doesn't prove he's healthy/productive, do you consider resigning him? Give the job to Rottino? Find another Graf-type?)
Dressens - Kansas City is paying his salary this year. So, $0.
Jenkins - 7 mil

Total - 19.7 mil

Increases:
Sheets - 1 mil
Suppan - 2 mil
Hall - 1.8 mil
Turnbow - 1 mil
Jenkins and Koskie buyouts - .75 mil

Total - 6.55 mil

Arbitration notes:

Estrada and Mench are going into their last year of arbitration, they averaged a 1.5 mil raise each last year.
Cappy and Vargas are in the same position Estrada and Mench were last year. 2(1.5 mil)?
Weeks' draft day contract runs out. He made 1.32 mil this year. Is he a super two at 2.131 yrs service time? If so, I'd imagine at least a 2 mil increase.
Hardy hits arbitration for the first time. Made .4 mil in '07. 3 mil in 08?
Bush hits arbitration for the first time. Cappy got a 3 mil raise when he did so this year.
Wise and Shouse are due raises.
While Balfour and Aquino are arby eligible, I'm not counting them. Who knows if they'll still be here.

Guesstimate - Approx 10 mil? I'll have to ge study some comps for that to mean much. Although I may have estimated low.

The following year Hart and Fielder hit arbitration. Obviously some huge increases there.

Miller - With Rivera's numbers this year, I would like to keep him. At what price? I don't know.

Free agent signings?

As for the revenue from Miller Park, last year the payroll was about 58 mil and Attanasio said they made about 2 mil, if memory serves. Now its at 71 mil. All that increased revenue isn't going to make up much more than that difference. But with our new owner's business acumen, hopefully we can keep the payroll at or above 70m most years without losing money. When they can get a new TV contract, maybe more. I think thats quite a few years away though.

In summary, between contract increases and arbitration, my very rough estimate leaves us +3 mil w/o any free agents. Not exactly the geatest breathing room to sign Sheets, JJ and Rickie then Hart and Fielder followed by CV with Braun and Gallardo shortly afterwards. Thankfully they are spaced apart over 4-5 years, but it still seems like only 3 or 4 of them will be affordable long term.

by throughhyperspace on Jul 24, 2007 11:12 AM CDT 0 recs

Future buying power

Sorry, my initial number addition was wrong above. Throughhyperspace thanks for the intel and website on mlb contracts.

I guess my hopes are the added revenue. In concert with the marginal ticket/concession and parking increases, the attendance is on pace to be ahead 20-25% over 2006.

Also, Nielsen was severely underreporting FSN ratings for the Brewers. Hopefully that will mean future TV dollar increases for the club.

And to another degree, team merchandise sales are up considerably. Every little bit helps.

It won't be easy and we won't keep everyone, But I think we can keep most. And with MOUSTACHE in charge to fill in the gaps...They should remain powerful.

Missin' Bob Betts- Best Public Address Announcer Ever!

by Hot dog and Diet Coke on Jul 24, 2007 3:32 PM CDT 0 recs

Quick aside

My pops, step ma(both retired), ex-sister-in-law and step sister's husband(step-brother-in-law?) are all mil county deps(if thats what your handle means).. small world :)

Warcheck(phonetically correct, but intentionally misspelled)

by throughhyperspace on Jul 24, 2007 3:52 PM CDT up 0 recs

10-3

I am also a Milwaukee County Sheriff Deputy. I miss the days of working Miller Park. Unfortunately, the powers that be lost our contract to Milwaukee PD.

Missin' Bob Betts- Best Public Address Announcer Ever!

by Hot dog and Diet Coke on Jul 24, 2007 3:57 PM CDT 0 recs

Hmmm

Shhhh...ixnay on the alpingscay. :)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 24, 2007 4:04 PM CDT up 0 recs