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More on the Linebrink / Inman Trade

There are good discussions of this and other potential trades going on all over the site, but I wanted to put all of my thoughts in one place.  As you probably know, I can get a little long-winded sometimes.  Let's go to the bullet points:

  • Let's be honest here: no matter how much there is to like about Linebrink, his home run numbers, especially his struggles away from home, are something to be concerned about.  There are murmurs that he may be hurt, and whether or not that's true, something hasn't quite been right this year.  The fact that the Padres would dump him when they're in the middle of the pennant race themselves indicates that he may not be an elite late-inning guy, though it also reflects their relief depth and Kevin Towers's willingness to give opportunities to guys who aren't big names.  (Think Cla Meredith.)

  • That said, there's a lot to like about Linebrink.  For one thing, as I pointed out elsewhere, this isn't a matter of replacing Turnbow with Linebrink, even if Linebrink takes over in the 8th inning.  Everybody moves down one notch, perhaps D-Bow to the 7th, Villy to the 6th, etc., and ultimately having another late-inning guy means fewer innings (and fewer important innings) for the likes of Spurling and Balfour.  That is unquestionably good, even if Linebrink turns out to be more like Matt Wise than Coco Cordero.

  • The price was high, but not as high as it seems.  For one thing, the entire current rotation (six guys counting Gallardo) is locked in through '08, which means Inman probably wouldn't crack the rotation until '09 at the earliest.  But even at that point, he could be very low on the depth chart, possibly behind guys like Parra, Villanueva, and Jackson, perhaps with Jeffress, Pascual, and Braddock charging up behind him.  You can never have enough pitching depth, of course, but understanding that Inman was never projected as a top-rotation guy, we have a lot of competition for that #4 slot from 2009-2015.

  • Not only that, but we can continue to draft more.  We won't have a high pick (top 15) next year, but we will likely have several in the first two rounds.  Between our pick and what we get from Cordero and Linebrink (presuming that they leave), we'll have plenty of opportunities to draft low-risk, low-upside college pitchers if we really do need to replace Inman and Garrison in the system (which we probably don't).

  • A couple of you sound concerned that giving up Thatcher is going to come back and bite us.  I do wish that we'd seen Thatcher in the bigs at some point this year, but the fact that we haven't, combined with the fact that he's a 26-year-old indy league product, tells me he's not going to make Melvin lose any sleep.  He may end up pitching in the back of San Diego's bullpen for a while, but remember, Melvin is the king of finding guys like that, and he'll continue to find more.  Quite simply, we don't need him, for much of the same reason we'll live without Inman.

  • Steve Garrison is young, but he's not worth losing sleep over, either.  He's better than your typical throw-in, sure, but anybody who ranks outside of the org's top 20 prospects--and doesn't fill an obvious need--is exactly who you should be willing to part with to get what you do need.

  • One last thing about Inman.  A few of you have brought up the adage TINSTAAPP--There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect.  In a BP article this spring, Gary Huckabay provided some very useful clarification of that concept.  Sure, young pitchers flame out, get injured, stall, all the time.  Brewers fans know that as well as anybody.  But the idea is that you can't trust the proverbial "live arms" to become pitchers.  In other words, Jeremy Jeffress or Mark Rogers is a very, very risky proposition.  TINSTAAPP does NOT, on the other hand, refer to guys who already ARE pitchers.  This could've been said of Gallardo when he was in the FSL last year: he may not quite have been ready for the bigs, but the dude could pitch.  (As opposed to just throw hard, like Rogers.)  Inman is the same way.  Much has been made of Inman's small stature and supposedly low ceiling, and some of it is probably true.  But the fact that he has succeeded as a control guy so far indicates that he is not a pitching prospect, he is a pitcher.  His stuff may end up capping his development at Triple-A, or with a few Gary Glover-like years in the bigs, but it won't be because TINSTAAPP is right.  The adage doesn't apply in this case.
And that, my friends, is all I have to say about that.  

Update [2007-7-26 11:29:34 by Jeff]: I lied. I have one more thing to add. While we won't know until August 1st (if ever) who was really on the block, and how much they would cost us, it's possible that Linebrink will end up being the best reliever to switch teams this month. Sure, it'd be nice to get Gagne, but the bidding for him must be crazy. It would've been nicer to get a healthy Otsuka, but he's too much of a question mark right now. As I wrote yesterday, the most obvious place to upgrade this team is the bullpen, and it may turn out that Melvin got the best available guy for our most glaring need. "Best available" is a secondary concern--after all, the best available second baseman may be Mark Loretta--but it is worth keeping in mind.

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nicely done
Very good analysis.
Missin' Bob Betts- Best Public Address Announcer Ever!

by Hot dog and Diet Coke on Jul 26, 2007 9:55 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well Said...
Of course I want to see the Brewers win every trade, like they seem to do, but when you're not %100 in favor of a trade, then the trade is pretty fair for both teams.  This seems to be one of those type of trades.  

On the plus side, Trevor Hoffman and Jake Peavy are both furious that they traded him.  I don't remember the exact adjectives they both used, but they were indeed pissed, which is a good thing for us.

Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Jul 26, 2007 9:56 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

linebrink & inman
no matter how much there is to like about Linebrink, his home run numbers, especially his struggles away from home, are something to be concerned about.

His "luck stats" don't bode well for things to just even out either. he's leaving guys on base and balls in play aren't falling in for an abnormal number of hits. The only thing you can take solace in here is that his HR/FB rate is too high. Linebrink's decline is due entirely to his lost ability to strike guys out. Hopefully he'll rediscover that here.

His stuff may end up capping his development at Triple-A

This is what I would expect to happen. In fact, I expect that he's capped at AA and the struggles he's having there are just due to a lack of stuff.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 26, 2007 9:58 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Thatcher.
Funny thing about Thatch.  Most articles have said he's 25 years old, Jeff said he was 27.  He's 26. :-)

The only reason I wouldn't like this trade is because it does provide a clear cut upgrade, especially since we don't know what Thatcher could have done.  It's like getting Jermaine Dye.  Maybe if we got Gagne, Lidge, or if the Twins became sellers and put Joe Nathan on the block.  Those are unlikely, but perhaps the only real upgrades.  I mean Linebrink over Spurling is probably a no brainer, but . . .  

Is this the only deal Melvin will make?  Or are we still going to make a run at Jarrod Saltamacchia? ;-)

by baumann on Jul 26, 2007 10:20 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Age
That is funny.  I could've sworn I read 27 just a bit ago.  You'd think with my master database of 12,000 minor leaguers with their birthdate, I could get it right :).
Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 26, 2007 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

salty
brewers dont really have anything of value that they'd be willing to part with to get Salty.  In fact, I just read that he may be traded to texas for teixeira.
Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Jul 26, 2007 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

right now
I'd try to sign linebrink.

by baseballdan1092 on Jul 26, 2007 10:29 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

until
we have to sign fielder and everybody else, yes.

by baseballdan1092 on Jul 26, 2007 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow
That there was a bold trade by the Milwaukee Brewers.  While Scott Linebrink has historically been a stud, it seems to me the Brewers gave up a ton for a pitcher who has struggled AND will be a free agent at the end of the season.  You can bet the ranch there will be a ridiculous bidding war for Linebrink, just like there is for all good relief pitchers.  Does Milwaukee have a legitimate shot to keep him?!?  I'm guessing not.  Plus I don't see the bullpen as a big problem area for the Brewers, assuming Ben Sheets comes back and Gallardo moves back to the pen.  Or David Bush or Jeff Suppan given their eternal struggles.  

But I give Doug Melvin credit.  He is apparently going for it.  Suppan needs to start earning his money, and Sheets needs to come back healthy.  And it wouldn't hurt if this team added a proven veteran bat ala Jermaine Dye.  

by cubbiebrewerfan on Jul 26, 2007 10:37 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

dye sucks this year...
so "proven" gets like a 268 OBP and 450 SLUG...we needed help in the pen and what's wrong with suring it up?
frankly, I don't care what a cub fan thinks about the trade :)
Brewers in 07!

by Michael M on Jul 26, 2007 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well...
The Brewers gave up a ton (i.e., Inman) for a guy who has struggled and is most likely only going to be a 2 month rental.  Jermaine Dye has been on a tear the past few weeks.  In my opinion, it is too much to ask Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun to carry the offensive load down the stretch.  Geoff Jenkins is basically useless, J.J. Hardy has cooled off majorly, and Bill Hall is injured and had his career year last year.  The Brewers need another stick.  A run producer.  Dye is a consummate professional and a proven big game player too.  I hate the White Sox, but have great respect for Dye.  He is going to make a nice 2 month rental for some playoff contending team.  

by cubbiebrewerfan on Jul 26, 2007 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

question is then...
who do the whitesox want and who would the brewers be willing to give up? i heard that williams wanted turnbow or parra to which melvin refused on...and i can't imagine the brewers giving up much for dye..maybe mench and...<fill in the name>.
while i'd like to see someone like suppan (or what he was signed here to be) in the lineup, we should be ok.
Brewers in 07!

by Michael M on Jul 26, 2007 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well...
I think Kenny Williams' asking price for Jermaine Dye is a lot.  So that probably precludes a deal with the Brewers.  Or the Cubs.  But I do think the Brewers are making a big mistake if they don't add a proven run producing bat to that lineup.  Are the Brewers trying to win a pennant, or appease Geoff Jenkins and his sensitive feelings?  If Melvin is hesitant to make a move for fear of pissing off Jenkins, then the cart is before the horse in Milwaukee.  Jenkins hasn't earned his big salary for a few seasons.  He should shut up and accept whatever role he is fortunate enough to have.  Eric Byrnes?  I'd take a pass if I were both the Cubs and Brewers.  

by cubbiebrewerfan on Jul 26, 2007 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

umm...
did you read somewhere that jenkins was pissed recently (aside from the spring training thing) Jenkins hasn't complained to my knowledge. also the problem isn't with melvin liking jenkins too much, it's yost, but even with that assertion the platoon of jenkins/mench hasn't been poor. and it leaves the question of who else to play?
Brewers in 07!

by Michael M on Jul 26, 2007 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And another thing
I'm guessing Scott Linebrink will become the personal project of Mike Maddux.  I like Maddux as a pitching coach a ton.  I know Bud Black is great at working with pitchers, but I'm guessin' Doug Melvin thinks Maddux will have a positive impact on Linebrink.  

by cubbiebrewerfan on Jul 26, 2007 10:41 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

my biggest issue with point 2
Don't you think the Brewers could have gotten a lot more for Inman??
I have seen the coming of the Lord. Savior, thy name is Gallardo.

by ESK on Jul 26, 2007 11:53 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

another positive
thought of another positive: even if linebrink is only a minor upgrade think of how huge an upgrade linebrink would've been for the cubs.
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 26, 2007 12:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Cubs bullpen is fine
Ryan Dempster is back throwing well.  Carlos Marmol has been lights out and is a future closer in making.  Bob Howry has righted the ship.  And Kerry Wood is throwing 95 MPH on a consistent basis on his 253rd rehab assignment.  In fact, Wood is slated to join the Cub bullpen early next week.  Bullpen is a strength of the Cubs right now.  

by cubbiebrewerfan on Jul 26, 2007 1:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Bullpen is a strength of the Cubs right now.
you have only 3 players and a ghost in your bullpen? who's the worst pitcher in the bullpen right now?
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 26, 2007 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

it is their strength
since their hot run, its been the pen that's been most consistent.
Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Jul 26, 2007 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

consistent
what do you mean consistent?
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 26, 2007 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

consistently good
I love the brew, but i can actually admit that the cubs bullpen has been outstanding on their hot streak.
Ned for Prez!! Seriously, he needs a new job.

by Zel123 on Jul 26, 2007 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent Trade
This trade is going to help the Brewers a lot down the stretch, and nice analysis up top Jeff.

The trade looks questionable if you just stare at the numbers, but thats a terrible way to run a team and Melvin knows it.  Obviously the Brewers have some of the best actual scouting in the major leagues, just look at our current crop of young talent or Cordero last year.  It's not an accident that this quantity of young players ends up in one place, and I trust Melvin on this trade as well.  I think you have to look at the trade from two angles, long-term and short-term.  

Long-term, the Brewers have a ton of young pitching prospects who could mature into major league players.  Inman had some good early numbers in High A, but obviously scouts saw diminishing potential as he began to advance.  He still may have made it to the majors, but its not as if trading him depletes our entire system of future pitchers.  If the Brewers are trying to build for the future, they can do a very good job with or without these three players, especially considering the additional draft picks we might get next year from Cordero/Linebrink.

Short-term, Linebrink is going to be a huge help to a Brewers team that is facing the post-season for the first time in years.  As Melvin mentioned talking to Uecker during last night's game, its nice to build a team for the future, but you also have to be realistic and recognize an opportunity for the World Series that doesn't happen very often in this organization.  I like the idea of trading away a little bit of our future in Inman (who's a question mark anyways) to help ensure this season ends well, because a winning Brewers team might not come together again for a while, we have to seize the opportunity while it's here.

As for how Linebrink is going to help this team, there are a lot of ways.  He is a good set-up man even if he doesn't return to his dominating stuff of 2-3 years ago (and if the trade brings him to life again like it did Cordero, all the better).  Having a realiable guy like Linebrink is huge for our bullpen and the extra option will only help stabilize guys like Turnbow or Villanueva.  Furthermore, Linebrook has some post-season experience (which is rare on this team) and from all accounts is an excellent teammate and leader.  Our current veteran leadership is rather shakey, and it will help a lot to have Linebrink step into the role.  With the young talent that the Brewers have, the only things that can sideline them will be their inexperience or our bullpen.  Our offense is going to return to form sooner or later, and Linebrink will be the guy to solve both those problems.

by stevie ray Braun on Jul 26, 2007 3:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It occurs to me
That a Cordero/Linebrink late-inning could be referred to as Coldrink, though you have to go back and forth between the names to get it to work.

Otherwise, you're stuck with the much more pedestrian Linero.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 26, 2007 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

how about
cordbrink
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 26, 2007 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes!
Bryan Clutterbuck.

by Jamie in LA on Jul 27, 2007 3:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Otsuka
I've read some reports that Otsuka isn't recovering as well as expected and might need Tommy John surgery.  Looks like Melvin assessed that situation well.

by stevie ray Braun on Jul 26, 2007 6:34 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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