Brewer @ Cubs series preview

by dixieflatline on Aug 28, 2007 7:50 AM CDT Comment 82 comments

I considered not writing a preview for this series as every time I write something the opposite seems to happen in the series. The Cardinals did play good defense in the series at miller park. The Giants offense put up a ton of runs in the last series. But this series is the big one and I felt like I really wanted to break things down and I figured a series preview was the best way to do that. This one will contain a bit more random stuff though. First, just how important is this series to the crew? Very, very, important. With 32 games left to play BP has their chances of winning the division at one in four. If they were to get swept in the series I am calculating that their chances would go down to about 5%. Sweep the Cubs and their chances go up just over 50% depending on what the Cardinals do. That is a huge possible swing in just three days.

So the moral of the story is Nedly needs to pull out all the stops for this series and manage like it was a playoff series. 2-1 and they are in decent position. Anything worse and they are in trouble.

A lot has been written about the Cubs defense this year and how they seem to be getting lucky on balls in play. But as of right now, they are tops in the NL in DEF , plus/minus, and DALG . They are second in the NL in RZR (also at Hardball times) to go along with that. Each one of these statistics uses a different way of calculating defense and I just don't believe that this is all from luck anymore. The Cubs have a very good defense. Maybe they aren't the best in the NL but they are in the top three. The Brewers on the other hand, are probably in the bottom three. DALG suggests that the differential in defense between the two clubs is almost 100 runs so far this season. That is HUGE. If the crew expects to win this series their defense is probably going to have to play much better than they have so far this year.

Earlier in the year I commented that the Cubs were leaning on Ramirez and Lee to carry the offense. In the past few months though they have fallen back a bit but the rest of the offense has picked up the slack. DeRosa, Ward, Soriano, and Jason Kendall have all put up better than league average numbers at their positions. Fontenot and Theriot are playing basically league average and the sinkholes in the lineup have either hit the bench or sent to AAA or traded. Kendall obviously is over his head and maybe so if Ward but Fontenot and Theriot are both 27 now so this probably is real production from them. Suddenly, the Cubs are offering a balanced attack something the Brewers had as a strength a few months ago.

Meanwhile the Crew's offense has become very dependent on Fielder and Braun to carry them. Players like Hart, Hardy, and Estrada have faded leaving the heavy lifting to be done by Braun and Fielder. They are the two best offensive players in the series though and if the Crew can get a few guys on a homer or two could change the complexion of the series quickly.

Speaking of the homers Wrigley field is notorious for changing from a park were balls fly out like mad to a pitchers park in the matter of hours. The Brewers lead the world with 180 dingers but are 14 in the league with just 104. A hot day with the wind blowing out would really help the Crew. Unfortunately, all three games of the series are night games and only Tuesday looks to be hot and humid.

The other thing that could play a vital role in who wins the series is baserunning. The Brewers and the Cubs have been terrible this year at throwing out would be thieves at 16% for the Brewers and 11% for the Cubs. Johnny Estrada hasn't thrown out a runner in his last 22 opportunities. If Hart, Weeks, or Braun can get on base they could give the Brewers some cheap runs. the cubs only have two players with double digit steals and one of them is Soriano who is just coming back from a leg injury. He might not be too active on the base paths but Theriot might with 22 steals on the year.

The Cubs will the throwing Hill, Zambrano, and Lilly and the Brewers will probably go with Suppan, Sheets, and Gallardo. If Sheets can't go then either Parra or Villy will get the start with my money on Manny. Hill has already given up 24 homers on the year and if it is going to be hot Tuesday that could really help the Crew. He has a 5.40 ERA in three starts against us and we have already hit 4 dingers in just 16 2/3 innings against him. He has struck out 16 Brewers though. He features a great curveball but his fastball is low 90's with little movement so I would try to get into fastball counts, guess fastball, and swing really hard.

We all know about Zambrano so I am going to skip to Ted Lilly. Lilly is also a lefty who is having a very similar year to Rich Hill. He has given up 23 homers on the year and 3 to the Crew in three starts lasting just over 12 innings.

The opportunity is somehow still there for a Brewer team that has played just terribly recently to fall from first place. The Cubs are throwing two lefties that we have hit well this year and we hit lefties well in general. If the ball is carrying we could have a big series with the longball. Defensively, we just have to play better and hopefully we can keep them from taking too many bases against Estrada when he is behind the plate.

With Cappy in the pen we kind of have 7 relievers again so with the off day today the pen is rested. Hopefully Ned won't push the starters at all and use mostly the good relievers if the games are close. 5-6 innings and sit down should be good enough. The Cubs pen still is a bit of a weakness though they have been better of late. If the bullpens decide the series though I would be a very happy man.

I will be rooting for 2-1 but if I had to guess I would say 1-2 Cubs. The first game of the series looks to be maybe the best matchup for us pitching wise so hopefully they can win that one and get off to a good start.

Go Crew.

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Sweep Baby!!!

Its about time for this team to show us the capabilities of their talent level.

However, if we sweep the cubs, we had better win the division. Nothing would be worse then a sweep, getting everyone's hopes up, then tanking the rest of the season.

Nevertheless, a sweep would make my week seem oh so sweet.

by Zel123 on Aug 27, 2007 11:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You know

i honestly have no idea what to expect anymore. we take 2/3 from the dbacks, the get swept by the giants pretty much the opposite of what people think. however, since brewers beat the dbacks, and dbacks beat the cubs by the transitive property, or something like that, the brewers must beat the cubs, the laws of math say that must be true. and im sure the jay being a math major will agree with my brilliant analysis....

by DoubleJ235 on Aug 28, 2007 12:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

It's better than the Chewbacca Defense.

Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 28, 2007 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Laughing my supposed ass off

The Chewbacca defense reference is a thing to behold, you are my new hero.....

Personally, I think we got hosed on that one! - Harry Doyle

by reverse24 on Aug 28, 2007 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sadly, I concur

"I will be rooting for 2-1 but if I had to guess I would say 1-2 Cubs."

I wouldn't mind being wrong in a good way though.

Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 28, 2007 12:02 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

please god let me be the only brew fan...

up at this hour (3:52am in la).

and, please god, how about a sweep???

time for bed.

goodnight all.
jamie.

by Jamie in LA on Aug 28, 2007 5:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd be happy

If we at least caused The Little Z to melt down.

by drezdn on Aug 28, 2007 9:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The great unknown

Who really knows what to expect out of this series. Both the Cubs and the Brewers are consistent in their inconsistency. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are laying in the weeds ready to seize the moment. If the Brewers continue to play like garbage and finish out of the playoffs it will be a disappointment. But in my opinion not that big of a disappointment given how relatively young and inexperienced the team really is. If the Cubs finish on the a sour note it will be deeply disappointing because expectations (and pressure to win) is much higher. As it should be for a franchise with a $100 million payroll and a 62 year drought in between World Series appearances. If the bloody Cardinals win it will be simply amazing given the extreme makeover of their starting pitching staff and the decline of Edmonds and Rolen.

by cubbiebrewerfan on Aug 28, 2007 9:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

who are you rooting for in this series?

i am just curious; cause here is a case where you literally have to have a team that you are rooting for. who is it?

by Jamie in LA on Aug 28, 2007 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

One thing I forgot to mention

The Cubs are starting a brutal stretch of 24 games in 23 days. They even have a makeup game against the Cards at home in the middle of a road trip where an off day was supposed to be. If we can climb to within a 1/2 a game this series they might tire down the stretch and let us pass them.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Aug 28, 2007 9:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

dixie

great preview by the way, and apologies for the lameness downthread. cheers!

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

make or break

This series is a little more important for the brewers just for the fact that if the Cubs lose 2 out of 3, they are still a half game ahead of us, where as if the Brewers lose 2 out of 3, they will be 2.5 games back and possibly behind the cards. This series is by far the most important of the year and I think if the Brew Crew is going to stick around they HAVE to win 2 games, anything else and I feel like the season is over, and its time for some football

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 9:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

nope

if the brewers only take 1, they'll fall 2.5 games back and still be right in the race.

there is a lot of baseball left, and the brewers have been playing horrible. if they improve to simply decent baseball they'll leap over the cubs who really aren't as talented as the brewers, this brewers team is a better team.

they have the most potential in the league and can reproduce the hot streaks we've seen earlier. This is what i've predicted anyway, and so far i'm basically correct (if the brewers spit their last 4 games this month they'll be 16-26 post all-star break which is what i predicted.)

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

* 18-28

16-26 now, splitting final 4 games gets them to 18-28 post ASB, with 28 games left.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

hows

that pirates in 2nd and the cubs last working out for ya?

by dylanj on Aug 28, 2007 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you want to blast people on other team's sites

Why not head here instead?

Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 28, 2007 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah totally...

by Jamie in LA on Aug 28, 2007 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you've

obviously never seen a baseball game. it's played by men, on baseball fields, not computers programmed by people like you living in the basements of kin.

seriously, that prediction irked you huh?

maybe you forget a particular stretch of the season where a specific team failed in a particular percentage of their matches thus illustrating the correctness of my prediction. is that it?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ah

dusting off the old your not a real man interent nerd argument eh?

maybe your just a toolbag who made some shitty predictions?

by dylanj on Aug 28, 2007 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

<yawn>

Maybe he is. Maybe you're the type that takes a little too much offense from said predictions? It all evens out, I'm sure.

Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 28, 2007 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

im not offended

by his predictions, just pointing out that they have been proven to be awful in a thread where he was lauding himself for making them.

by dylanj on Aug 28, 2007 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i still dont understand why you read our threads?

im not trying to start anything, honestly. im just curious.

by Jamie in LA on Aug 28, 2007 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

because

jacob is a gem of the interweb, a true artist of the crazy.

if i could have a RSS feed of his posts and comments here and at bleed cubbie blue (a blog which is filled with cub fan jacobs) i would add it to my netvibes page ASAP

by dylanj on Aug 28, 2007 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok.

by Jamie in LA on Aug 28, 2007 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

huh

maybe he is

whaaa? et tu?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haha, no offense intended

I just figure you have to throw some people a bone for them to listen sometimes.

Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 28, 2007 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

no, read past the words

look deeper. it's much better than the "your not a real man interent nerd argument."

can i just take a moment here, and i know i'm guilty of this but it's "you're not" and it is not "your not."

and it's internets (silent s).

right? major pet peeve. whew, glad i got that off my chest.

maybe your just a toolbag who made some shitty predictions?

typical cubs fan. no just kidding, all cub fans are nice, and not ever rude or with the lacking of the knowledge.

i'm trying to read into this one, but i can't... toolbag connects indirectly to making predictions, but if i had tools, the predictions wouldn't be shitty, right?

hm. maybe your insult is as simple as it looks? is it? if it is, lets not do the flame war thing, i can see your (or is it you're) dancing shoes are still on the shelf, and i need partners who are up for the tango.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

hilarious

everytime you get into some confrontation around here you retreat into some nonsensical rambling.

or you accuse some poster here of being a cub fan

good stuff

by dylanj on Aug 28, 2007 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

it seems wierd

to me that you continually make posts on a site where not one person cares what you have to say. but i guess, whatever makes you happy...

by DoubleJ235 on Aug 28, 2007 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

2nd half

one more point, the 2nd half collapse has been because of runs allowed, so pitching and defense. I say the defense has been a huge culprit, but even considering that a .334 babip for the pitchers is unsustainably high and unlucky (.356 in august!), we can expect some bounces to go our way.

it all starts with better advance scouting, and pitching to the other teams weaknesses. part of that turnaround comes with more miller and less estrada.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If only

We could trade for Michael Barrett, just for this series.

That would mess with their minds.

by drezdn on Aug 28, 2007 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

As a Cub fan, I'd love that

Barrett is a trainwreck behind the plate and on the basepads. Plus he is an instigator and a human punching bag. If anything would jack up the Cubs, it would be the presence of Barrett playing for the opponent.

by cubbiebrewerfan on Aug 28, 2007 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It'd be worth it

If we can get him to goad Zambrano into getting himself ejected. :)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Aug 28, 2007 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brewers defense is a problem

The Brewers have a problem behind the plate, at 3rd base, 2nd base, 1st base and center field. In my opinion. Johnny Estrada needs to be jettisoned in deference to a pitcher's friend/defense first catcher. Ryan Bruan needs loads of work at 3rd base. Rickie Weeks looks plain awful at 2nd base. Prince Fielder doesn't have much range and not the smoothest of hands, but he is the least of the defensive problems. Bill Hall has looked confused in center.

Good pitching and defense go hand in hand. A statement of the brilliantly obvious. But hopefully a statement that Doug Melvin and Ned Yost grasp this offseason. I would provide both Braun and Weeks intensive defensive instruction during the winter and spring. And I would seriously consider shifting Braun to the outfield and moving Hall to 3rd base. If Weeks doesn't make marked improvement at 2nd base in 2008, then you have to move him to the outfield. Or out of town.

by cubbiebrewerfan on Aug 28, 2007 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

weeks and hall

Have looked pretty decent this year. sure hall had his problems in center early in the year, and we all expected that, but has looked alot better as of late. Weeks has improved sooo much from last year, if even somewhat continues to improve his d, well then he will be fine. Their problems have been been at the plate, where both of them have really struggled.

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Brewers have actually eliminated that position

They only use video for advance scouting now. I read that on a BP post awhile ago regarding technology and the game.

Ryan Braun is the Ed Hochuli of Third Basemen

by hyattff2003 on Aug 28, 2007 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

who says

they will even play decent baseball, what would lead you to think that all of a sudden they will turn it around, they have looked terrible for so long now. I just don't see it happening if they lose two out of three

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

because it's the odds on favorite to happen

this team is an 85 win team, they've been playing 65 win ball...

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

there is a big

there is a big difference in saying they are an 85 win, and actually winning 85 games. don't get me wrong I would love for them to win 85 games, but i just don't see it happening, I don't see us finishing 8 games over .500. There is no way we go 20-12 to finish the year. I want what you are smoking

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

why

based on what?

There is no way we go 20-12 to finish the year

how about to start the year?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

based

on the way we have been playing, the way we have been pitching, the way we have been playing defense, and the way ned yost manages the game. You can't just snap your finger and say they will play .666 ball the rest of the way. what makes you think THEY WILL go 20-12 to finish?? I have not seen anything that would make many people think that

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok well let's look at this.

based on the way we have been playing

So you think this team is a 65 win team?

You can't just snap your finger and say they will play .666 ball the rest of the way.

No you can't. But I believe, and i'm fairly certain the stats will back me up on this, that this is an 85, maybe 87, win team. If that's their true talent, you could expect them to go 17-15 over the next 32 games. Right? What if they get "hot"? Just three games "hot" and they win 3 they shoulda lost? It's complicated, but i already posted my reasoning for why i think they'll get hot.

If you think the pitching/defense is 6+ runs allowed per game bad, i think you'll be pleasantly surprised with the rest of the season. or at least i hope.

Also, to say they aren't capable of a stretch of baseball they've already outperformed twice this season is silly to me. You say they'll never go 20-12, yet they've played that well twice already for extended periods.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

jacob

I really do hope your right. Its not like I am not a brewers fan and I will be cheering for them every game the rest of the season. I just believe that they will not finish strong (like the last three years) and I don't think 82 victories wins the division. Like i said, I hope I am wrong. We will continue this conversation when the season is over and I really do hope that I have to make an apology to you, but I just don't see it happening

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i hope i'm right too

I just believe that they will not finish strong

This totally makes sense if you think they are as bad as they've played lately. i simply refuse to believe that this team is this bad.

if you think they'll finish with 82 wins that means you think they'll go 17-15 over the balance of the season. That's what an 85 win team would do. I think that's a totally reasonable prediction. I also think 85 wins will win the division and the brewers have the talent to play just a couple games better than your prediction.

What'll really hurt is just missing the playoffs and looking back on all these second half collapses and being able to say, if, just if one of the games...

Either way, no apologies will be called for. This team has the talent to get hot, and they'll need to i think.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I agree that 85 wins will win the division, but the brewers can afford to get to much futher behind. and just to note, I was not trying to be a prick or anything, just wanted someone elses point of view and you gave that to me. I can't wait for the game to start tonight

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

can't afford

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and

if we do only take 1 game from the cubs, that means we would have to finish 19-10, never happen

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

estrada

just going through some gameday stuff of really unfortunate ABs against the brewers in that SF series i noticed something interesting. it appears that after estrada gets a strike he often goes back to the same pitch the very next pitch, and the few times i found where he didn't, he went back to the pitch one pitch later.

it's something to watch for in this series. the problem with going back to a strike is the hitter now has a visual of what is a strike (called) or they are better prepared to hit one they liked the first time (foul, swing and miss).

if estrada is a poor game caller, it's that he's too predictable and other teams have figured this out.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 10:51 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Lacking time

I noted Nate Silver's entry over at BP this morning about how many leads of 3 runs or more the Brewers have blown this year (13, 9 since July 28). I went back and looked at who was pitching when the Brewers gave up the big runs, but I don't think I'll have time to do anything with it today. Maybe the data is useful in this discussion of Estrada. At first glance, I have trouble blaming Estrada because the common links are Vargas, Capuano and the bullpen...although that is just a first impression. If anyone wants to look into the blown leads, I'd be interested to see the conclusions:

7/28 - Cordero
7/29 - Turnbow loads em, Villy gives up more
8/1 - Vargas
8/5 - Cordero
8/7 - Capuano, Villy
8/14 - Capuano, Parra
8/19 - Capuano, Linebrink
8/24 - Vargas, Capuano
8/26 - Bush, Linebrink

I have the play-by-play info for the blowup innings in these games, and I'll post it as a reply to this post.

by Marty McSuperFly on Aug 28, 2007 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Play-by-play

7/29
-------

Bottom of the 8th, Cardinals Batting, Behind 4-5, Derrick Turnbow facing 6-7-8
Derrick Turnbow replaces Scott Linebrink pitching and batting 9th; Skip Schumaker pinch hits for Ryan Franklin batting 6th
--- 2 S Schumaker Single to LF (Ground Ball)
1-- 5 Y Molina Single to CF (Line Drive); Schumaker to 3B
O 1-3 4 A Kennedy Strikeout Swinging
R 1-3 4 S Rolen Single to CF (Ground Ball); Schumaker Scores; Molina to 2B
12- 2 D Eckstein Single to LF (Ground Ball); Molina to 3B; Rolen to 2B
Carlos Villanueva replaces Derrick Turnbow pitching and batting 9th
R 123 7 R Ludwick Walk; Molina Scores; Rolen to 3B; Eckstein to 2B
RRRO 123 3 A Pujols Double to LF (Line Drive); Rolen Scores; Eckstein Scores; Ludwick Scores; Pujols out at 3B/LF-SS-1B
O --- 3 C Duncan Groundout: 1B-P
5 runs, 5 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Brewers 5, Cardinals 9.

8/1
------

Top of the 2nd, Mets Batting, Behind 0-3, Claudio Vargas facing 4-5-6
--- 4 C Delgado Walk
1-- 4 M Alou Single to RF (Line Drive); Delgado to 2B
R 12- 2 M Anderson Single to CF (Ground Ball); Delgado Scores; Alou to 2B
RRR 12- 5 R Castro Home Run (Fly Ball to LF-CF); Alou Scores; Anderson Scores
O --- 6 S Green Groundout: 2B-1B
O --- 1 O Perez Groundout: 3B-1B
O --- 4 J Reyes Lineout: 2B
4 runs, 3 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Mets 4, Brewers 3.

Top of the 3rd, Mets Batting, Behind 4-5, Claudio Vargas facing 2-3-4
--- 4 L Castillo Single to SS (Ground Ball)
1-- 5 D Wright Walk; Castillo to 2B
O 12- 6 C Delgado Strikeout Swinging
O 12- 1 M Alou Groundout: 3B-1B; Castillo to 3B; Wright to 2B
RRR -23 3 M Anderson Home Run (Fly Ball to RF); Castillo Scores; Wright Scores
Manny Parra replaces Claudio Vargas pitching and batting 9th
O --- 5 R Castro Strikeout Swinging
3 runs, 2 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Mets 7, Brewers 5.

8/7
-------

Bottom of the 6th, Rockies Batting, Behind 0-3, Chris Capuano facing 2-3-4
R --- 4 T Tulowitzki Home Run (Fly Ball to CF)
--- 2 M Holliday Single to 2B (Ground Ball)
1-- 3 T Helton Single to RF (Line Drive); Holliday to 3B
R 1-3 1 G Atkins Single to LF (Line Drive); Holliday Scores; Helton to 2B
Carlos Villanueva replaces Chris Capuano pitching and batting 9th
R 12- 7 R Spilborghs Double to LF (Ground Ball); Helton Scores; Atkins to 3B
-23 4 B Hawpe Intentional Walk
O 123 1 Y Torrealba Popfly: 1B
Cory Sullivan pinch hits for Jason Hirsh batting 9th
R 123 2 C Sullivan Single to 1B (Ground Ball); Atkins Scores; Spilborghs to 3B; Hawpe to 2B
RO 123 6 J Carroll Groundout: 3B-2B/Forceout at 2B; Spilborghs Scores; Hawpe to 3B; Carroll to 1B
O 1-3 2 T Tulowitzki Flyball: CF
5 runs, 6 hits, 0 errors, 2 LOB. Brewers 3, Rockies 5.

8/14
--------

Top of the 5th, Cardinals Batting, Behind 2-3, Chris Capuano facing 1-2-3
--- 1 D Eckstein Single to LF (Ground Ball)
O 1-- 7 R Ankiel Strikeout Swinging
1-- A Pujols Wild Pitch; Eckstein to 2B
-2- 8 " " Single to SS (Ground Ball)
12- 4 R Ludwick Hit By Pitch; Eckstein to 3B; Pujols to 2B
RR 123 1 S Rolen Reached on E5/attempted forceout (Ground Ball); Eckstein Scores; Pujols Scores/No RBI; Ludwick to 2B
12- 4 J Edmonds Single to RF (Line Drive); Ludwick to 3B; Rolen to 2B
Manny Parra replaces Chris Capuano pitching and batting 9th
R 123 4 Y Molina Walk; Ludwick Scores/unER; Rolen to 3B; Edmonds to 2B
RR 123 5 K Wells Single to RF (Ground Ball); Rolen Scores; Edmonds Scores; Molina to 3B
1-3 4 B Ryan Walk; Wells to 2B
ROO 123 1 D Eckstein Double Play: Lineout: LF/Sacrifice Fly; Molina Scores/Team unER; Wells out at 3B
6 runs, 4 hits, 1 error, 1 LOB. Cardinals 8, Brewers 3.

8/19
-------

Top of the 6th, Reds Batting, Behind 2-5, Chris Capuano facing 3-4-5
--- 4 J Keppinger Single to LF (Line Drive)
RR 1-- 6 B Phillips Home Run (Fly Ball to CF); Keppinger Scores
--- 2 A Dunn Hit By Pitch
1-- J Conine Wild Pitch; Dunn to 2B
-2- " " Wild Pitch; Dunn to 3B
RO --3 7 " " Flyball: CF/Sacrifice Fly; Dunn Scores
O --- 4 E Encarnacion Strikeout Swinging
O --- 6 R Jorgensen Strikeout Swinging
3 runs, 2 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Reds 5, Brewers 5.

Bottom of the 7th, Brewers Batting, Tied 5-5, Aaron Harang facing 8-9-1
R --- 2 J Hardy Home Run (Fly Ball to LF)
O --- 5 S Linebrink Strikeout Swinging
O --- 4 R Weeks Strikeout Swinging
--- 3 G Gross Double to CF (Fly Ball)
Bill Bray replaces Aaron Harang pitching and batting 9th
O -2- 1 P Fielder Lineout: RF
1 run, 2 hits, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Reds 5, Brewers 6.

Top of the 8th, Reds Batting, Behind 5-6, Scott Linebrink facing 4-5-6
Corey Hart replaces Gabe Gross playing RF batting 2nd
O --- 4 B Phillips Flyball: CF
--- 6 A Dunn Walk
1-- 3 J Conine Single to RF (Ground Ball); Dunn to 2B
12- 1 E Encarnacion Single to LF (Line Drive); Dunn to 3B; Conine to 2B
Javier Valentin pinch hits for Ryan Jorgensen batting 8th
RR 123 7 J Valentin Ground-rule Double (Line Drive to LF-CF); Dunn Scores; Conine Scores; Encarnacion to 3B
Brian Shouse replaces Scott Linebrink pitching and batting 9th; Ken Griffey pinch hits for Bill Bray batting 9th
O -23 5 K Griffey Popfly: SS
-23 4 N Hopper Intentional Walk
O 123 4 J Hamilton Strikeout Swinging
2 runs, 3 hits, 0 errors, 3 LOB. Reds 7, Brewers 6.

8/24
-------

Bottom of the 1st, Giants Batting, Behind 0-3, Claudio Vargas facing 1-2-3
--- 4 D Roberts Single to CF (Ground Ball)
1-- R Durham Roberts Steals 2B
R -2- 4 " " Single to CF (Fly Ball); Roberts Scores
1-- R Winn Durham Steals 2B
-2- 4 " " Hit By Pitch
R 12- 1 B Bonds Single to RF (Line Drive); Durham Scores; Winn to 3B
O 1-3 1 R Klesko Flyball: LF
O 1-3 5 B Molina Strikeout Swinging
1-3 5 P Feliz Walk; Bonds to 2B
RRR 123 7 O Vizquel Double to RF (Line Drive); Winn Scores; Bonds Scores; Feliz Scores
R -2- 1 N Lowry Single to LF (Fly Ball); Vizquel Scores
Matt Wise replaces Claudio Vargas pitching and batting 9th
1-- 1 D Roberts Single to CF (Fly Ball); Lowry to 2B
O 12- 5 R Durham Strikeout Swinging
6 runs, 6 hits, 0 errors, 2 LOB. Brewers 3, Giants 6.

Bottom of the 2nd, Giants Batting, Ahead 6-4, Chris Capuano facing 3-4-5
Chris Capuano replaces David Bush pitching and batting 9th
--- 2 R Winn Double to CF (Fly Ball)
O -2- 5 B Bonds Lineout: RF
O -2- 4 R Klesko Strikeout Looking
O -2- 2 B Molina Groundout: 3B-1B
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Brewers 4, Giants 6.

Top of the 3rd, Brewers Batting, Behind 4-6, Noah Lowry facing 4-5-6
--- 3 B Hall Single to RF (Line Drive)
O 1-- 4 K Mench Lineout: 2B
1-- 3 J Estrada Single to LF (Ground Ball); Hall to 2B
O 12- 3 J Dillon Groundout: 1B-SS/Forceout at 2B; Hall to 3B
R 1-3 4 J Hardy Single to RF (Fly Ball); Hall Scores; Dillon to 3B
R 1-3 2 C Capuano Single to CF (Ground Ball); Dillon Scores; Hardy to 2B
12- 5 R Weeks Walk; Hardy to 3B; Capuano to 2B
O 123 7 C Hart Strikeout Swinging
2 runs, 4 hits, 0 errors, 3 LOB. Brewers 6, Giants 6.

Bottom of the 3rd, Giants Batting, Tied 6-6, Chris Capuano facing 7-8-9
--- 1 P Feliz Single to 2B (Ground Ball)
O 1-- 3 O Vizquel Flyball: RF
RR 1-- 2 N Lowry Home Run (Fly Ball to LF); Feliz Scores
O --- 6 D Roberts Strikeout Swinging
O --- 1 R Durham Groundout: SS-1B
2 runs, 2 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Brewers 6, Giants 8.

8/26
--------

Bottom of the 7th, Giants Batting, Behind 2-4, David Bush facing 5-6-7
Bill Hall moves to CF; Corey Hart moves to RF
--- 5 R Aurilia Single to LF (Line Drive)
O 1-- 5 D Ortmeier Strikeout Swinging
RR 1-- 1 G Rodriguez Home Run (Fly Ball to LF-CF); Aurilia Scores
--- 1 K Frandsen Double to CF (Fly Ball)
Brian Shouse replaces David Bush pitching and batting 9th; Ryan Klesko pinch hits for Jack Taschner batting 9th
O -2- 4 R Klesko Strikeout Swinging
O -2- 3 D Roberts Groundout: 1B-P
2 runs, 3 hits, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Brewers 4, Giants 4.

Top of the 8th, Brewers Batting, Tied 4-4, Steve Kline facing 3-4-5
Steve Kline replaces Ryan Klesko pitching and batting 9th
O --- 2 P Fielder Flyball: RF
--- 5 R Braun Reached on E5 (Ground Ball)
O 1-- 2 G Jenkins Flyball: CF
O 1-- 6 C Hart Groundout: SS-2B/Forceout at 2B
0 runs, 0 hits, 1 error, 1 LOB. Brewers 4, Giants 4.

Bottom of the 8th, Giants Batting, Tied 4-4, Scott Linebrink facing 2-3-4
Scott Linebrink replaces Brian Shouse pitching and batting 9th
--- 1 R Davis Single to LF (Line Drive)
O 1-- R Winn Davis Caught Stealing 2B (C-SS)
O --- 3 " " Strikeout Swinging
--- 3 P Feliz Single to CF (Ground Ball)
R 1-- 3 R Aurilia Single to RF (Fly Ball); Feliz Scores
O 1-- 2 D Ortmeier Flyball: CF
1 run, 3 hits, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Brewers 4, Giants 5.

by Marty McSuperFly on Aug 28, 2007 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Capuano

makes up more than half of that, and just from a glance he seems to be the biggest culprit. Can you imagine if we would've won 4 of the 9 games we lost w/ a 3 run lead? Maybe just win the games that we had a 5 run lead.....we'd be going into Chicago and it'd be the Cubbies who "need" to win 2 of 3 to stay in the race. Lastly, a lot of people have been bagging on Suppan, and it was weird to see that his name was not included in your list Marty.

If A-Rod hits A-Bombs, does Fielder hit F-Bombs? It's dumb I know....

by Adam P on Aug 28, 2007 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Soup

Suppan has pitched pretty poorly as well. Even one of the JSOnline reporters noted that of the top 3 pitchers entering this season (Sheets, Capuano, Suppan), Sheets has the most recent victory, and he's been on the DL for 6 weeks.

I guess we should be grateful that Suppan hasn't imploded as spectacularly as the others?

by Marty McSuperFly on Aug 28, 2007 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm absolutely not

Sticking up for Suppan, in fact in a weird way I was agreeing with your point. It was just weird that as poorly as Sup has pitched, that his name wasn't included in the first list anywhere.

If A-Rod hits A-Bombs, does Fielder hit F-Bombs? It's dumb I know....

by Adam P on Aug 28, 2007 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be Fair

Suppan should have got a win in the last game against the Phillies (up 6-1 in the 9th).

by drezdn on Aug 28, 2007 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

At first glance, I have trouble blaming Estrada because the common links are Vargas, Capuano and the bullpen.

you might be right, nothing stands out for estrada in previous years either, which if he were a "bad game caller" we'd see it last year and the year before as well.

i think it could just be lack of scouting. the brewers bad second half is because other teams figure us out and we don't adjust.

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by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

scouting

That would account for the consistently bad second half numbers for Yost. I know there's a whole scouting department, but when the failure is strategic or tactical, the manager has to be accountable.

by Marty McSuperFly on Aug 28, 2007 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If that's the case Jacob

Then there is probably more blame to put on the orginization starting towards the top (Melvin, Yost) rather than on individual players. Wouldn't you agree?

If A-Rod hits A-Bombs, does Fielder hit F-Bombs? It's dumb I know....

by Adam P on Aug 28, 2007 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

definitely

i'm just speculating based on a couple of things.

the brewers are getting hit, and hit hard
it's happening mostly in the middle of the game which leads to the blown leads.

those two are true.

estrada is not a great game caller
yost is terrible with bullpen management
the organization fails in scouting and opponents

"figure us out"

those three are my own observations that i don't really have "evidence" for, but might help explain 1 & 2.

so yeah, my hunch is that the game calling is the problem, so maybe it's the catchers maybe it's the organization. you look at these guys FIPs and xFIPs and they aren't pitching all that bad.

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by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

for example

you look at these guys FIPs and xFIPs and they aren't pitching all that bad.

If i told you capuano is having his best year this year you'd think i was crazy... but his xFIP (fip with normalized HRs) over the last few years are:

2004 4.58
2005 4.64
2006 4.32
2007 4.28

he's just not getting the big outs.

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by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well part of that is the defense is terrible

He isn't getting the big outs because the defense isn't getting them for him. And he has probably still be hit unlucky on top of that. I do think something has changed though. He is striking out more batters than usual but also walking more. It seems like he is nibbling more and pitching to contact less. I'd love to see how many fastballs/offspeed pitches he has throw this year vs previous years. He also hasn't picked off many runners this year which was a huge help to his cause before when runners did get on base.

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by dixieflatline on Aug 28, 2007 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and the corollary to...

"not getting the big outs" is probably "getting into situations that require a big out to begin with". Or more specifically, cruising along for several innings, then getting hit hard multiple times in a row.

The typical Sheets outing seems to be 7 innings, 3 runs, with those runs spread across two or even three innings. Everybody else on the staff seems to love giving them up in bunches. Makes their FIP look all pretty because their number of base-runners isn't bad overall, but doesn't help their actual production. I wonder if there's a way to measure that...some type of standard deviation of the number of walks+hits given up in each inning, averaged for all starts?

Needless to say, I'd love to believe it's all just bad luck, but...

by Zeyes on Aug 28, 2007 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

FIP tells very little

to have a formula with variables that are HR, BB, HBP, and SO tells very little of a pitcher. I realize they are trying to eliminate defense, but FIP elimates much more than just defense.

by Zel123 on Aug 28, 2007 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So what would you use?

Just wondering what else you'd throw in there. Off the top of my head I'm guessing hits a la WHIP?

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by TheJay on Aug 28, 2007 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What we need is...

A FIP that takes into account line drives, pop ups, and the like. If I had access to data like that I would be all over it in a second. Honestly, I don't understand why the people who do have access to that haven't run those numbers already. It would be like xFIP only it would normalize for every type of ball hit. Surely that would be a better predictor than xFIP, FIP, ERA or whatever. Sigh.

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by dixieflatline on Aug 28, 2007 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm guessing you'd want the raw data

But THT's player profiles (see Capuano's) have percentages for those.

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by TheJay on Aug 28, 2007 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

raw data

is available at fangraphs.com (here's capuano).

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by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow that is awesome

Now I just need to grab all of those files, parse them, and add them to the files I have already and I will be in business. Can anyone think of why this wouldn't be a good idea? Isn't this exactly what THT does with their revised zone rating stuff? Why hasn't someone done that already?

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by dixieflatline on Aug 28, 2007 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

fip

Can anyone think of why this wouldn't be a good idea?

well aside from all the work... :)

if i understand you correctly, you'd essentially normalize to league average FB/LD/GB rates for each pitcher and adjust for the run values of each event to come up with a better stat?

if i have that right, the reason not to do it is because it is believed that FB/LD/GB rates are associated with a pitching skill, or more accurately a pitching style and they correlate pretty well from year to year.

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by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

I thought that is what I was trying to do. Maybe I didn't make myself clear. The problem FIP has is if a pitcher is giving up a ton of line drives that isn't showing up. FIP is kind of assuming league average FB/LD/GB percentages since it doesn't care about balls in play. It is the pitchers fault he is getting hit hard and not giving the defense a chance. So if that is happening then hopefully this new stat would show a higher value than what FIP has to say. I think.

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by dixieflatline on Aug 28, 2007 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

sounds like a good idea to me...

good luck with figuring it out.

by Zel123 on Aug 28, 2007 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok, right.

you might find this interesting

Pitcher Tables

Also, there is somewhere, i think tangotiger put it together, a table of linear weights by batted ball type. (ie. a line drive is worth .2 runs, etc.) but i didn't find it after a quick search.

i think what you are on the trail of is the answer to why Dave Bush has terrific peripherals, but not great results.

so, what you'd want to do is take the batted ball totals, assign each a run value and total that up? it would be the batted ball component of a fip-inclusive stat? it sounds familiar, i'll keep poking...

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by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

here it is

internets are cool, yes?

Batted Ball Breakdown

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by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the links

That is exactly what I wanted to do and of course Tom has done it already. But has he gone the last step and calculated a revised ERA with those numbers? That last step kind of turns the theory into practice and might answer questions like, are the cubs pitchers getting hit lucky or the Bush question you asked.

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by dixieflatline on Aug 28, 2007 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont know what to add...

Sometimes a think watching the game can tell the story of a pitcher. You can tell when a pitcher gets into jams but can himself out (vargas early on). You can tell when a guy keeps getting rockets hit off of him, but they are caught. I think you just get a feel on how the pitcher is by watching them.

You can watch brandon webb pitch and see why he is a great pitcher, his heavy sinker.

I can watch Zambrano and see why he walks so many guys, but it is also the reason he is great. All of his pitches move all over the place including his 4 seam fastball, which is rare when thrown at 95.

Baseball is a great sport for numbers and statistics. In fact, out of the major sports, stats in baseball are by far the most important. However, sometimes I think the stats are stretched to the limit when formulas like FIP are used.

Sometimes the games need to just be watched to truly understand what makes players great or average.

by Zel123 on Aug 28, 2007 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not saying it's wrong

But what do the 13 games with blown leads have to do with Estrada's game calling? Is the implication he gets lax in the later innings or has no idea how to handle the guys in the bullpen? Why not argue the team's 48-46 in his starts?

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by TheJay on Aug 28, 2007 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nothing direct

I just happened to be looking at 9 recent games where the Brewers held a reasonable lead, and some terrible pitching squandered the opportunity. Since CATALYST had posted some data about Estrada's handling of the bullpen, I figured someone with more time than me might be able to make use of the data.

I'm not even defending Estrada. I just saw a run of games that indicated Vargas and Capuano have plenty of success blowing games on their own :)

by Marty McSuperFly on Aug 28, 2007 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ned Yost

In all of this not once was a mention of firing Ned Yost. I will say not making the playoffs probably ends Yost's tenure as a Brewer manager, why not make the change now and throw a little curveball into this whole thing. The Brewer's marketing team has been riding the '82 coat tails and granted a little later in the season we can fire Yost like Buck Rodgers was fired. Then the ghost of Harvey Kuenn can take over or his wife whatever is more avaliable at the time.

by kjbsam on Aug 28, 2007 11:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

well

There's a whole web site devoted to that proposition.

by Marty McSuperFly on Aug 28, 2007 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

BTW Jacob (and everyone else)

Whew those replies are just barely at the end of the page. Maybe we can start from the left hand side again. What I am currently doing besides running some intentional walk charts is hammering MLBs servers for the pitchF/X data. I have been reading up on it and it looks like a gold mine of information. The biggest problem right now seems to be the variation of the system between two parks. This is painful but something I think I can normalize out. I would love to use it to see just how many curves in the dirt Jenkins has swung at this year and if Fielder/Braun are mostly hitting out fastballs, as it seems to my eye, or if they are taking offspeed stuff deep as well. It is going to take some work as I am going to have to write another parser for the files and then clump the data together in a usable way but hopefully I will be making pretty pictures sometime next week.

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by dixieflatline on Aug 28, 2007 4:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ah... What a good memory...

Your message gave me...

I remember the slow slider that Prince hit out the 1st series in Wrigley, where he didn't even stride into it...

All in the wrists.

Let's hope we see a few of those this week!

Hey Ned! Ever heard of small ball? Or are your balls too small?

by CATALYST on Aug 28, 2007 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why we'll go 20-12

Why can't we go 20-12? No one's mentioned yet that Sheets is coming back. Say what you will of his importance, but the staff ERAs before and after his injury are more than one earned run apart. And I think he will have a positive effect that will ripple through the entire staff -- you can bump Vargas or Cappy to the pen and save thea arms of Cordero, et al. In addition, the Brewers could really benefit from an extra arm or two in that tired pen and will have them from Sept 1st onward. In addtion, Weeks is starting to hit again (.450+ in the last week). He hit around .200 and/or was in the minors prior to that.

If they can bump their pitching up a notch, I think the Crew has the bats to stay in it. Not saying they're going to win it, but have as good of a shot as the Cards or Cubs.

Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....

by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Aug 28, 2007 4:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Series is important for momentum I guess

but even if we lose all three, all we would have to do is play slightly better than .500 for the remainder of the season to pass the Cubs easily. The division is close enough (and mediocre enough) that a decent winning streak will probably take it.

by stevie ray Braun on Aug 28, 2007 5:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	91	71	.561	0	Lost 6
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	83	78	.515	7.5	Lost 1
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	80	82	.493	11	Won 3
Cincinnati Red Reporter	78	84	.481	13	Won 2
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	74	88	.456	17	Lost 3
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	62	99	.385	28.5	Lost 2