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Brewer @ Cubs series preview

Tiny by dixieflatline on

I considered not writing a preview for this series as every time I write something the opposite seems to happen in the series.  The Cardinals did play good defense in the series at miller park.  The Giants offense put up a ton of runs in the last series.  But this series is the big one and I felt like I really wanted to break things down and I figured a series preview was the best way to do that.  This one will contain a bit more random stuff though. First, just how important is this series to the crew?  Very, very, important.  With 32 games left to play BP has their chances of winning the division at one in four.  If they were to get swept in the series I am calculating that their chances would go down to about 5%.  Sweep the Cubs and their chances go up just over 50% depending on what the Cardinals do.  That is a huge possible swing in just three days.

So the moral of the story is Nedly needs to pull out all the stops for this series and manage like it was a playoff series.  2-1 and they are in decent position.  Anything worse and they are in trouble.

A lot has been written about the Cubs defense this year and how they seem to be getting lucky on balls in play.  But as of right now, they are tops in the NL in DEF , plus/minus, and DALG .  They are second in the NL in RZR (also at Hardball times) to go along with that.  Each one of these statistics uses a different way of calculating defense and I just don't believe that this is all from luck anymore.  The Cubs have a very good defense.  Maybe they aren't the best in the NL but they are in the top three.  The Brewers on the other hand, are probably in the bottom three.  DALG suggests that the differential in defense between the two clubs is almost 100 runs so far this season.  That is HUGE.  If the crew expects to win this series their defense is probably going to have to play much better than they have so far this year.

Earlier in the year I commented that the Cubs were leaning on Ramirez and Lee to carry the offense.  In the past few months though they have fallen back a bit but the rest of the offense has picked up the slack.  DeRosa, Ward, Soriano, and Jason Kendall have all put up better than league average numbers at their positions.  Fontenot and Theriot are playing basically league average and the sinkholes in the lineup have either hit the bench or sent to AAA or traded.  Kendall obviously is over his head and maybe so if Ward but Fontenot and Theriot are both 27 now so this probably is real production from them.  Suddenly, the Cubs are offering a balanced attack something the Brewers had as a strength a few months ago.

Meanwhile the Crew's offense has become very dependent on Fielder and Braun to carry them.  Players like Hart, Hardy, and Estrada have faded leaving the heavy lifting to be done by Braun and Fielder.  They are the two best offensive players in the series though and if the Crew can get a few guys on a homer or two could change the complexion of the series quickly.

Speaking of the homers Wrigley field is notorious for changing from a park were balls fly out like mad to a pitchers park in the matter of hours.  The Brewers lead the world with 180 dingers but are 14 in the league with just 104.  A hot day with the wind blowing out would really help the Crew.  Unfortunately, all three games of the series are night games and only Tuesday looks to be hot and humid.

The other thing that could play a vital role in who wins the series is baserunning.  The Brewers and the Cubs have been terrible this year at throwing out would be thieves at 16% for the Brewers and 11% for the Cubs.  Johnny Estrada hasn't thrown out a runner in his last 22 opportunities.  If Hart, Weeks, or Braun can get on base they could give the Brewers some cheap runs.  the cubs only have two players with double digit steals and one of them is Soriano who is just coming back from a leg injury.  He might not be too active on the base paths but Theriot might with 22 steals on the year.

The Cubs will the throwing Hill, Zambrano, and Lilly and the Brewers will probably go with Suppan, Sheets, and Gallardo.  If Sheets can't go then either Parra or Villy will get the start with my money on Manny.  Hill has already given up 24 homers on the year and if it is going to be hot Tuesday that could really help the Crew.  He has a 5.40 ERA in three starts against us and we have already hit 4 dingers in just 16 2/3 innings against him.  He has struck out 16 Brewers though.  He features a great curveball but his fastball is low 90's with little movement so I would try to get into fastball counts, guess fastball, and swing really hard.

We all know about Zambrano so I am going to skip to Ted Lilly.  Lilly is also a lefty who is having a very similar year to Rich Hill.  He has given up 23 homers on the year and 3 to the Crew in three starts lasting just over 12 innings.

The opportunity is somehow still there for a Brewer team that has played just terribly recently to fall from first place.  The Cubs are throwing two lefties that we have hit well this year and we hit lefties well in general.  If the ball is carrying we could have a big series with the longball.  Defensively, we just have to play better and hopefully we can keep them from taking too many bases against Estrada when he is behind the plate.

With Cappy in the pen we kind of have 7 relievers again so with the off day today the pen is rested.  Hopefully Ned won't push the starters at all and use mostly the good relievers if the games are close.  5-6 innings and sit down should be good enough.  The Cubs pen still is a bit of a weakness though they have been better of late.  If the bullpens decide the series though I would be a very happy man.

I will be rooting for 2-1 but if I had to guess I would say 1-2 Cubs.  The first game of the series looks to be maybe the best matchup for us pitching wise so hopefully they can win that one and get off to a good start.

Go Crew.

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Sweep Baby!!!
Its about time for this team to show us the capabilities of their talent level.

However, if we sweep the cubs, we had better win the division. Nothing would be worse then a sweep, getting everyone's hopes up, then tanking the rest of the season.

Nevertheless, a sweep would make my week seem oh so sweet.

by Zel123 on Aug 27, 2007 11:03 PM CDT   0 recs

You know
i honestly have no idea what to expect anymore. we take 2/3 from the dbacks, the get swept by the giants pretty much the opposite of what people think. however, since brewers beat the dbacks, and dbacks beat the cubs by the transitive property, or something like that, the brewers must beat the cubs, the laws of math say that must be true. and im sure the jay being a math major will agree with my brilliant analysis....

by DoubleJ235 on Aug 28, 2007 12:06 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Well
It's better than the Chewbacca Defense.
Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 28, 2007 12:21 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Laughing my supposed ass off
The Chewbacca defense reference is a thing to behold, you are my new hero.....
Personally, I think we got hosed on that one! - Harry Doyle

by reverse24 on Aug 28, 2007 2:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Sadly, I concur
"I will be rooting for 2-1 but if I had to guess I would say 1-2 Cubs."

I wouldn't mind being wrong in a good way though.

Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 28, 2007 12:02 AM CDT   0 recs

please god let me be the only brew fan...
up at this hour (3:52am in la).

and, please god,  how about a sweep???

time for bed.

goodnight all.
jamie.

by Jamie in LA on Aug 28, 2007 5:54 AM CDT   0 recs

I'd be happy
If we at least caused The Little Z to melt down.

by drezdn on Aug 28, 2007 9:07 AM CDT   0 recs

The great unknown
Who really knows what to expect out of this series.  Both the Cubs and the Brewers are consistent in their inconsistency.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals are laying in the weeds ready to seize the moment.  If the Brewers continue to play like garbage and finish out of the playoffs it will be a disappointment.  But in my opinion not that big of a disappointment given how relatively young and inexperienced the team really is.  If the Cubs finish on the a sour note it will be deeply disappointing because expectations (and pressure to win) is much higher.  As it should be for a franchise with a $100 million payroll and a 62 year drought in between World Series appearances.  If the bloody Cardinals win it will be simply amazing given the extreme makeover of their starting pitching staff and the decline of Edmonds and Rolen.    

by cubbiebrewerfan on Aug 28, 2007 9:39 AM CDT   0 recs

who are you rooting for in this series?
i am just curious; cause here is a case where you literally have to have a team that you are rooting for.  who is it?

by Jamie in LA on Aug 28, 2007 12:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

One thing I forgot to mention
The Cubs are starting a brutal stretch of 24 games in 23 days.  They even have a makeup game against the Cards at home in the middle of a road trip where an off day was supposed to be.  If we can climb to within a 1/2 a game this series they might tire down the stretch and let us pass them.
Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Aug 28, 2007 9:53 AM CDT   0 recs

dixie
great preview by the way, and apologies for the lameness downthread. cheers!
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 1:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

make or break
This series is a little more important for the brewers just for the fact that if the Cubs lose 2 out of 3, they are still a half game ahead of us, where as if the Brewers lose 2 out of 3, they will be 2.5 games back and possibly behind the cards. This series is by far the most important of the year and I think if the Brew Crew is going to stick around they HAVE to win 2 games, anything else and I feel like the season is over, and its time for some football

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 9:56 AM CDT   0 recs

nope
if the brewers only take 1, they'll fall 2.5 games back and still be right in the race.

there is a lot of baseball left, and the brewers have been playing horrible. if they improve to simply decent baseball they'll leap over the cubs who really aren't as talented as the brewers, this brewers team is a better team.

they have the most potential in the league and can reproduce the hot streaks we've seen earlier. This is what i've predicted anyway, and so far i'm basically correct (if the brewers spit their last 4 games this month they'll be 16-26 post all-star break which is what i predicted.)

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 10:05 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

* 18-28
16-26 now, splitting final 4 games gets them to 18-28 post ASB, with 28 games left.
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 10:07 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

hows
that pirates in 2nd and the cubs last working out for ya?

by dylanj on Aug 28, 2007 12:30 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If you want to blast people on other team's sites
Why not head here instead?
Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 28, 2007 12:41 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

you've
obviously never seen a baseball game. it's played by men, on baseball fields, not computers programmed by people like you living in the basements of kin.

seriously, that prediction irked you huh?

maybe you forget a particular stretch of the season where a specific team failed in a particular percentage of their matches thus illustrating the correctness of my prediction. is that it?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 12:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ah
dusting off the old your not a real man interent nerd argument eh?

maybe your just a toolbag who made some shitty predictions?

by dylanj on Aug 28, 2007 12:56 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

<yawn>
Maybe he is. Maybe you're the type that takes a little too much offense from said predictions? It all evens out, I'm sure.
Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 28, 2007 12:59 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

im not offended
by his predictions, just pointing out that they have been proven to be awful in a thread where he was lauding himself for making them.

by dylanj on Aug 28, 2007 1:01 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i still dont understand why you read our threads?
im not trying to start anything, honestly. im just curious.

by Jamie in LA on Aug 28, 2007 1:04 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

because
jacob is a gem of the interweb, a true artist of the crazy.

if i could have a RSS feed of his posts and comments here and at bleed cubbie blue (a blog which is filled with cub fan jacobs) i would add it to my netvibes page ASAP

by dylanj on Aug 28, 2007 1:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

huh
maybe he is

whaaa? et tu?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 1:04 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Haha, no offense intended
I just figure you have to throw some people a bone for them to listen sometimes.
Daily Ryan Braun leaderboard watch and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 28, 2007 1:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

no, read past the words
look deeper. it's much better than the "your not a real man interent nerd argument."

can i just take a moment here, and i know i'm guilty of this but it's "you're not" and it is not "your not."

and it's internets (silent s).

right? major pet peeve. whew, glad i got that off my chest.

maybe your just a toolbag who made some shitty predictions?

typical cubs fan. no just kidding, all cub fans are nice, and not ever rude or with the lacking of the knowledge.

i'm trying to read into this one, but i can't... toolbag connects indirectly to making predictions, but if i had tools, the predictions wouldn't be shitty, right?

hm. maybe your insult is as simple as it looks?  is it? if it is, lets not do the flame war thing, i can see your (or is it you're) dancing shoes are still on the shelf, and i need partners who are up for the tango.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 1:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

hilarious
everytime you get into some confrontation around here you retreat into some nonsensical rambling.

or you accuse some poster here of being a cub fan

good stuff

by dylanj on Aug 28, 2007 1:05 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

it seems wierd
to me that you continually make posts on a site where not one person cares what you have to say. but i guess, whatever makes you happy...

by DoubleJ235 on Aug 28, 2007 1:26 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

2nd half
one more point, the 2nd half collapse has been because of runs allowed, so pitching and defense. I say the defense has been a huge culprit, but even considering that a .334 babip for the pitchers is unsustainably high and unlucky (.356 in august!), we can expect some bounces to go our way.

it all starts with better advance scouting, and pitching to the other teams weaknesses. part of that turnaround comes with more miller and less estrada.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 10:11 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If only
We could trade for Michael Barrett, just for this series.

That would mess with their minds.

by drezdn on Aug 28, 2007 10:35 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

As a Cub fan, I'd love that
Barrett is a trainwreck behind the plate and on the basepads.  Plus he is an instigator and a human punching bag.  If anything would jack up the Cubs, it would be the presence of Barrett playing for the opponent.  

by cubbiebrewerfan on Aug 28, 2007 10:41 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It'd be worth it
If we can get him to goad Zambrano into getting himself ejected. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Aug 28, 2007 1:06 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Brewers defense is a problem
The Brewers have a problem behind the plate, at 3rd base, 2nd base, 1st base and center field.  In my opinion.  Johnny Estrada needs to be jettisoned in deference to a pitcher's friend/defense first catcher.  Ryan Bruan needs loads of work at 3rd base.  Rickie Weeks looks plain awful at 2nd base.  Prince Fielder doesn't have much range and not the smoothest of hands, but he is the least of the defensive problems.  Bill Hall has looked confused in center.  

Good pitching and defense go hand in hand.  A statement of the brilliantly obvious.  But hopefully a statement that Doug Melvin and Ned Yost grasp this offseason.  I would provide both Braun and Weeks intensive defensive instruction during the winter and spring.  And I would seriously consider shifting Braun to the outfield and moving Hall to 3rd base.  If Weeks doesn't make marked improvement at 2nd base in 2008, then you have to move him to the outfield.  Or out of town.  

by cubbiebrewerfan on Aug 28, 2007 10:39 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

weeks and hall
Have looked pretty decent this year. sure hall had his problems in center early in the year, and we all expected that, but has looked alot better as of late. Weeks has improved sooo much from last year, if even somewhat continues to improve his d, well then he will be fine. Their problems have been been at the plate, where both of them have really struggled.

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 10:47 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The Brewers have actually eliminated that position
They only use video for advance scouting now.  I read that on a BP post awhile ago regarding technology and the game.
Ryan Braun is the Ed Hochuli of Third Basemen

by hyattff2003 on Aug 28, 2007 11:17 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

who says
they will even play decent baseball, what would lead you to think that all of a sudden they will turn it around, they have looked terrible for so long now. I just don't see it happening if they lose two out of three

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 10:43 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

because it's the odds on favorite to happen
this team is an 85 win team, they've been playing 65 win ball...
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 10:45 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

there is a big
there is a big difference in saying they are an 85 win, and actually winning 85 games. don't get me wrong I would love for them to win 85 games, but i just don't see it happening, I don't see us finishing 8 games over .500. There is no way we go 20-12 to finish the year. I want what you are smoking

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 10:52 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

why
based on what?

There is no way we go 20-12 to finish the year

how about to start the year?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 11:01 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

based
on the way we have been playing, the way we have been pitching, the way we have been playing defense, and the way ned yost manages the game. You can't just snap your finger and say they will play .666 ball the rest of the  way. what makes you think THEY WILL go 20-12 to finish?? I have not seen anything that would make many people think that

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 11:24 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ok well let's look at this.
based on the way we have been playing

So you think this team is a 65 win team?

You can't just snap your finger and say they will play .666 ball the rest of the  way.

No you can't. But I believe, and i'm fairly certain the stats will back me up on this, that this is an 85, maybe 87, win team. If that's their true talent, you could expect them to go 17-15 over the next 32 games. Right? What if they get "hot"? Just three games "hot" and they win 3 they shoulda lost? It's complicated, but i already posted my reasoning for why i think they'll get hot.

If you think the pitching/defense is 6+ runs allowed per game bad, i think you'll be pleasantly surprised with the rest of the season. or at least i hope.

Also, to say they aren't capable of a stretch of baseball they've already outperformed twice this season is silly to me. You say they'll never go 20-12, yet they've played that well twice already for extended periods.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 11:42 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

jacob
I really do hope your right. Its not like I am not a brewers fan and I will be cheering for them every game the rest of the season. I just believe that they will not finish strong (like the last three years) and I don't think 82 victories wins the division. Like i said, I hope I am wrong. We will continue this conversation when the season is over and I really do hope that I have to make an apology to you, but I just don't see it happening

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 12:23 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i hope i'm right too
I just believe that they will not finish strong

This totally makes sense if you think they are as bad as they've played lately. i simply refuse to believe that this team is this bad.

if you think they'll finish with 82 wins that means you think they'll go 17-15 over the balance of the season. That's what an 85 win team would do. I think that's a totally reasonable prediction. I also think 85 wins will win the division and the brewers have the talent to play just a couple games better than your prediction.

What'll really hurt is just missing the playoffs and looking back on all these second half collapses and being able to say, if, just if one of the games...

Either way, no apologies will be called for. This team has the talent to get hot, and they'll need to i think.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 12:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah
I agree that 85 wins will win the division, but the brewers can afford to get to much futher behind. and just to note, I was not trying to be a prick or anything, just wanted someone elses point of view and you gave that to me. I can't wait for the game to start tonight

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 1:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

and
if we do only take 1 game from the cubs, that means we would have to finish 19-10, never happen

by Bigdogg2002 on Aug 28, 2007 10:57 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

estrada
just going through some gameday stuff of really unfortunate ABs against the brewers in that SF series i noticed something interesting. it appears that after estrada gets a strike he often goes back to the same pitch the very next pitch, and the few times i found where he didn't, he went back to the pitch one pitch later.

it's something to watch for in this series. the problem with going back to a strike is the hitter now has a visual of what is a strike (called) or they are better prepared to hit one they liked the first time (foul, swing and miss).

if estrada is a poor game caller, it's that he's too predictable and other teams have figured this out.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 10:51 AM CDT   0 recs

Lacking time
I noted Nate Silver's entry over at BP this morning about how many leads of 3 runs or more the Brewers have blown this year (13, 9 since July 28).  I went back and looked at who was pitching when the Brewers gave up the big runs, but I don't think I'll have time to do anything with it today.  Maybe the data is useful in this discussion of Estrada.  At first glance, I have trouble blaming Estrada because the common links are Vargas, Capuano and the bullpen...although that is just a first impression.  If anyone wants to look into the blown leads, I'd be interested to see the conclusions:

7/28 - Cordero
7/29 - Turnbow loads em, Villy gives up more
8/1  - Vargas
8/5  - Cordero
8/7  - Capuano, Villy
8/14 - Capuano, Parra
8/19 - Capuano, Linebrink
8/24 - Vargas, Capuano
8/26 - Bush, Linebrink

I have the play-by-play info for the blowup innings in these games, and I'll post it as a reply to this post.

by Marty McSuperFly on Aug 28, 2007 11:23 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Play-by-play
7/29
-------

Bottom of the 8th, Cardinals Batting, Behind 4-5, Derrick Turnbow facing 6-7-8
Derrick Turnbow replaces Scott Linebrink pitching and batting 9th; Skip Schumaker pinch hits for Ryan Franklin batting 6th
          ---  2  S Schumaker     Single to LF (Ground Ball)
          1--  5  Y Molina        Single to CF (Line Drive); Schumaker to 3B
   O      1-3  4  A Kennedy       Strikeout Swinging
   R      1-3  4  S Rolen         Single to CF (Ground Ball); Schumaker Scores; Molina to 2B
          12-  2  D Eckstein      Single to LF (Ground Ball); Molina to 3B; Rolen to 2B
                  Carlos Villanueva replaces Derrick Turnbow pitching and batting 9th
   R      123  7  R Ludwick       Walk; Molina Scores; Rolen to 3B; Eckstein to 2B
   RRRO   123  3  A Pujols        Double to LF (Line Drive); Rolen Scores; Eckstein Scores; Ludwick Scores; Pujols out at 3B/LF-SS-1B
   O      ---  3  C Duncan        Groundout: 1B-P
                  5 runs, 5 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Brewers 5, Cardinals 9.

8/1
------

Top of the 2nd, Mets Batting, Behind 0-3, Claudio Vargas facing 4-5-6
          ---  4  C Delgado       Walk
          1--  4  M Alou          Single to RF (Line Drive); Delgado to 2B
   R      12-  2  M Anderson      Single to CF (Ground Ball); Delgado Scores; Alou to 2B
   RRR    12-  5  R Castro        Home Run (Fly Ball to LF-CF); Alou Scores; Anderson Scores
   O      ---  6  S Green         Groundout: 2B-1B
   O      ---  1  O Perez         Groundout: 3B-1B
   O      ---  4  J Reyes         Lineout: 2B
                  4 runs, 3 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Mets 4, Brewers 3.

Top of the 3rd, Mets Batting, Behind 4-5, Claudio Vargas facing 2-3-4
          ---  4  L Castillo      Single to SS (Ground Ball)
          1--  5  D Wright        Walk; Castillo to 2B
   O      12-  6  C Delgado       Strikeout Swinging
   O      12-  1  M Alou          Groundout: 3B-1B; Castillo to 3B; Wright to 2B
   RRR    -23  3  M Anderson      Home Run (Fly Ball to RF); Castillo Scores; Wright Scores
                  Manny Parra replaces Claudio Vargas pitching and batting 9th
   O      ---  5  R Castro        Strikeout Swinging
                  3 runs, 2 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Mets 7, Brewers 5.

8/7
-------

Bottom of the 6th, Rockies Batting, Behind 0-3, Chris Capuano facing 2-3-4
   R      ---  4  T Tulowitzki    Home Run (Fly Ball to CF)
          ---  2  M Holliday      Single to 2B (Ground Ball)
          1--  3  T Helton        Single to RF (Line Drive); Holliday to 3B
   R      1-3  1  G Atkins        Single to LF (Line Drive); Holliday Scores; Helton to 2B
                  Carlos Villanueva replaces Chris Capuano pitching and batting 9th
   R      12-  7  R Spilborghs    Double to LF (Ground Ball); Helton Scores; Atkins to 3B
          -23  4  B Hawpe         Intentional Walk
   O      123  1  Y Torrealba     Popfly: 1B
                  Cory Sullivan pinch hits for Jason Hirsh batting 9th
   R      123  2  C Sullivan      Single to 1B (Ground Ball); Atkins Scores; Spilborghs to 3B; Hawpe to 2B
   RO     123  6  J Carroll       Groundout: 3B-2B/Forceout at 2B; Spilborghs Scores; Hawpe to 3B; Carroll to 1B
   O      1-3  2  T Tulowitzki    Flyball: CF
                  5 runs, 6 hits, 0 errors, 2 LOB. Brewers 3, Rockies 5.

8/14
--------

Top of the 5th, Cardinals Batting, Behind 2-3, Chris Capuano facing 1-2-3
          ---  1  D Eckstein      Single to LF (Ground Ball)
   O      1--  7  R Ankiel        Strikeout Swinging
          1--     A Pujols        Wild Pitch; Eckstein to 2B
          -2-  8  " "             Single to SS (Ground Ball)
          12-  4  R Ludwick       Hit By Pitch; Eckstein to 3B; Pujols to 2B
   RR     123  1  S Rolen         Reached on E5/attempted forceout (Ground Ball); Eckstein Scores; Pujols Scores/No RBI; Ludwick to 2B
          12-  4  J Edmonds       Single to RF (Line Drive); Ludwick to 3B; Rolen to 2B
                  Manny Parra replaces Chris Capuano pitching and batting 9th
   R      123  4  Y Molina        Walk; Ludwick Scores/unER; Rolen to 3B; Edmonds to 2B
   RR     123  5  K Wells         Single to RF (Ground Ball); Rolen Scores; Edmonds Scores; Molina to 3B
          1-3  4  B Ryan          Walk; Wells to 2B
   ROO    123  1  D Eckstein      Double Play: Lineout: LF/Sacrifice Fly; Molina Scores/Team unER; Wells out at 3B
                  6 runs, 4 hits, 1 error, 1 LOB. Cardinals 8, Brewers 3.

8/19
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Top of the 6th, Reds Batting, Behind 2-5, Chris Capuano facing 3-4-5
          ---  4  J Keppinger     Single to LF (Line Drive)
   RR     1--  6  B Phillips      Home Run (Fly Ball to CF); Keppinger Scores
          ---  2  A Dunn          Hit By Pitch
          1--     J Conine        Wild Pitch; Dunn to 2B
          -2-     " "             Wild Pitch; Dunn to 3B
   RO     --3  7  " "             Flyball: CF/Sacrifice Fly; Dunn Scores
   O      ---  4  E Encarnacion   Strikeout Swinging
   O      ---  6  R Jorgensen     Strikeout Swinging
                  3 runs, 2 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Reds 5, Brewers 5.

Bottom of the 7th, Brewers Batting, Tied 5-5, Aaron Harang facing 8-9-1
   R      ---  2  J Hardy         Home Run (Fly Ball to LF)
   O      ---  5  S Linebrink     Strikeout Swinging
   O      ---  4  R Weeks         Strikeout Swinging
          ---  3  G Gross         Double to CF (Fly Ball)
                  Bill Bray replaces Aaron Harang pitching and batting 9th
   O      -2-  1  P Fielder       Lineout: RF
                  1 run, 2 hits, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Reds 5, Brewers 6.

Top of the 8th, Reds Batting, Behind 5-6, Scott Linebrink facing 4-5-6
                  Corey Hart replaces Gabe Gross playing RF batting 2nd
   O      ---  4  B Phillips      Flyball: CF
          ---  6  A Dunn          Walk
          1--  3  J Conine        Single to RF (Ground Ball); Dunn to 2B
          12-  1  E Encarnacion   Single to LF (Line Drive); Dunn to 3B; Conine to 2B
                  Javier Valentin pinch hits for Ryan Jorgensen batting 8th
   RR     123  7  J Valentin      Ground-rule Double (Line Drive to LF-CF); Dunn Scores; Conine Scores; Encarnacion to 3B
                  Brian Shouse replaces Scott Linebrink pitching and batting 9th; Ken Griffey pinch hits for Bill Bray batting 9th
   O      -23  5  K Griffey       Popfly: SS
          -23  4  N Hopper        Intentional Walk
   O      123  4  J Hamilton      Strikeout Swinging
                  2 runs, 3 hits, 0 errors, 3 LOB. Reds 7, Brewers 6.

8/24
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Bottom of the 1st, Giants Batting, Behind 0-3, Claudio Vargas facing 1-2-3
          ---  4  D Roberts       Single to CF (Ground Ball)
          1--     R Durham        Roberts Steals 2B
   R      -2-  4  " "             Single to CF (Fly Ball); Roberts Scores
          1--     R Winn          Durham Steals 2B
          -2-  4  " "             Hit By Pitch
   R      12-  1  B Bonds         Single to RF (Line Drive); Durham Scores; Winn to 3B
   O      1-3  1  R Klesko        Flyball: LF
   O      1-3  5  B Molina        Strikeout Swinging
          1-3  5  P Feliz         Walk; Bonds to 2B
   RRR    123  7  O Vizquel       Double to RF (Line Drive); Winn Scores; Bonds Scores; Feliz Scores
   R      -2-  1  N Lowry         Single to LF (Fly Ball); Vizquel Scores
                  Matt Wise replaces Claudio Vargas pitching and batting 9th
          1--  1  D Roberts       Single to CF (Fly Ball); Lowry to 2B
   O      12-  5  R Durham        Strikeout Swinging
                  6 runs, 6 hits, 0 errors, 2 LOB. Brewers 3, Giants 6.

Bottom of the 2nd, Giants Batting, Ahead 6-4, Chris Capuano facing 3-4-5
                  Chris Capuano replaces David Bush pitching and batting 9th
          ---  2  R Winn          Double to CF (Fly Ball)
   O      -2-  5  B Bonds         Lineout: RF
   O      -2-  4  R Klesko        Strikeout Looking
   O      -2-  2  B Molina        Groundout: 3B-1B
                  0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Brewers 4, Giants 6.

Top of the 3rd, Brewers Batting, Behind 4-6, Noah Lowry facing 4-5-6
          ---  3  B Hall          Single to RF (Line Drive)
   O      1--  4  K Mench         Lineout: 2B
          1--  3  J Estrada       Single to LF (Ground Ball); Hall to 2B
   O      12-  3  J Dillon        Groundout: 1B-SS/Forceout at 2B; Hall to 3B
   R      1-3  4  J Hardy         Single to RF (Fly Ball); Hall Scores; Dillon to 3B
   R      1-3  2  C Capuano       Single to CF (Ground Ball); Dillon Scores; Hardy to 2B
          12-  5  R Weeks         Walk; Hardy to 3B; Capuano to 2B
   O      123  7  C Hart          Strikeout Swinging
                  2 runs, 4 hits, 0 errors, 3 LOB. Brewers 6, Giants 6.

Bottom of the 3rd, Giants Batting, Tied 6-6, Chris Capuano facing 7-8-9
          ---  1  P Feliz         Single to 2B (Ground Ball)
   O      1--  3  O Vizquel       Flyball: RF
   RR     1--  2  N Lowry         Home Run (Fly Ball to LF); Feliz Scores
   O      ---  6  D Roberts       Strikeout Swinging
   O      ---  1  R Durham        Groundout: SS-1B
                  2 runs, 2 hits, 0 errors, 0 LOB. Brewers 6, Giants 8.

8/26
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Bottom of the 7th, Giants Batting, Behind 2-4, David Bush facing 5-6-7
                  Bill Hall moves to CF; Corey Hart moves to RF
          ---  5  R Aurilia       Single to LF (Line Drive)
   O      1--  5  D Ortmeier      Strikeout Swinging
   RR     1--  1  G Rodriguez     Home Run (Fly Ball to LF-CF); Aurilia Scores
          ---  1  K Frandsen      Double to CF (Fly Ball)
                  Brian Shouse replaces David Bush pitching and batting 9th; Ryan Klesko pinch hits for Jack Taschner batting 9th
   O      -2-  4  R Klesko        Strikeout Swinging
   O      -2-  3  D Roberts       Groundout: 1B-P
                  2 runs, 3 hits, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Brewers 4, Giants 4.

Top of the 8th, Brewers Batting, Tied 4-4, Steve Kline facing 3-4-5
                  Steve Kline replaces Ryan Klesko pitching and batting 9th
   O      ---  2  P Fielder       Flyball: RF
          ---  5  R Braun         Reached on E5 (Ground Ball)
   O      1--  2  G Jenkins       Flyball: CF
   O      1--  6  C Hart          Groundout: SS-2B/Forceout at 2B
                  0 runs, 0 hits, 1 error, 1 LOB. Brewers 4, Giants 4.

Bottom of the 8th, Giants Batting, Tied 4-4, Scott Linebrink facing 2-3-4
                  Scott Linebrink replaces Brian Shouse pitching and batting 9th
          ---  1  R Davis         Single to LF (Line Drive)
   O      1--     R Winn          Davis Caught Stealing 2B (C-SS)
   O      ---  3  " "             Strikeout Swinging
          ---  3  P Feliz         Single to CF (Ground Ball)
   R      1--  3  R Aurilia       Single to RF (Fly Ball); Feliz Scores
   O      1--  2  D Ortmeier      Flyball: CF
                  1 run, 3 hits, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Brewers 4, Giants 5.

by Marty McSuperFly on Aug 28, 2007 11:26 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Capuano
makes up more than half of that, and just from a glance he seems to be the biggest culprit.  Can you imagine if we would've won 4 of the 9 games we lost w/ a 3 run lead?  Maybe just win the games that we had a 5 run lead.....we'd be going into Chicago and it'd be the Cubbies who "need" to win 2 of 3 to stay in the race.  Lastly, a lot of people have been bagging on Suppan, and it was weird to see that his name was not included in your list Marty.  
If A-Rod hits A-Bombs, does Fielder hit F-Bombs? It's dumb I know....

by Adam P on Aug 28, 2007 11:35 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Soup
Suppan has pitched pretty poorly as well.  Even one of the JSOnline reporters noted that of the top 3 pitchers entering this season (Sheets, Capuano, Suppan), Sheets has the most recent victory, and he's been on the DL for 6 weeks.

I guess we should be grateful that Suppan hasn't imploded as spectacularly as the others?

by Marty McSuperFly on Aug 28, 2007 12:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm absolutely not
Sticking up for Suppan, in fact in a weird way I was agreeing with your point.  It was just weird that as poorly as Sup has pitched, that his name wasn't included in the first list anywhere.  
If A-Rod hits A-Bombs, does Fielder hit F-Bombs? It's dumb I know....

by Adam P on Aug 28, 2007 12:23 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

To be Fair
Suppan should have got a win in the last game against the Phillies (up 6-1 in the 9th).

by drezdn on Aug 28, 2007 2:06 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah
At first glance, I have trouble blaming Estrada because the common links are Vargas, Capuano and the bullpen.

you might be right, nothing stands out for estrada in previous years either, which if he were a "bad game caller" we'd see it last year and the year before as well.

i think it could just be lack of scouting. the brewers bad second half is because other teams figure us out and we don't adjust.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2007 11:44 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

scouting
That would account for the consistently bad second half numbers for Yost.  I know there's a whole scouting department, but when the failure is strategic or tactical, the manager has to be accountable.

by Marty McSuperFly on Aug 28, 2007 11:48 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If that's the case Jacob
Then there is probably more blame to put on the orginization starting towards the top (Melvin, Yost) rather than on individual players.  Wouldn't you agree?  
If A-Rod hits A-Bombs, does Fielder hit F-Bombs? It's dumb I know....

by Adam P on Aug 28, 2007 11:50 AM CDT