Carlos Quentin and Cubs Odds
by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 7, 2007 12:18 PM CDT
in News
43 comments
The two things in the headline have nothing to do with each other. It's just that neither of them merit their own post.
First, the recent Cubs slide has made it a little more likely that the Wild Card is not coming out of the central. No shock there. That means that my favorite toy, the Postseason Odds Report, has pushed the Cubs odds back down under 50%. The Brewers are still hanging in there at 61%. What's been sad lately is how the third-order winning percentages have sagged as well; Cubs and Brewers are both under .520, while both were around .530 not long ago, and both have seen the bright side of .550 at some point this year.
Second, the D-Backs signed Eric Byrnes to a three-year extension. That basically locks in their outfield as Byrnes, Chris Young, and Justin Upton through 2010. With first base occupied by Conor Jackson, that makes Carlos Quentin expendable. Quentin struggled in the bigs this year, and has had some injury problems, but he's a quality player. He's no Quad-A guy -- he's shown the talent at the big-league level. And look at these minor league OBPs. Wow.
The price may be high, but I'd love for Doug Melvin to get into those trade discussions this offseason. If it's decided that Bill Hall is going to stick in center, that leaves left field as the obvious gap next year. I'd much rather find someone like Quentin than sign some middle-tier free agent to a $24MM/3 year deal.
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Heh
But anyway, here's the list of potential free agent outfielders, from Cot's Baseball Contracts:
Bobby Abreu * NYY
Moises Alou * NYM
Milton Bradley SD
Eric Byrnes ARZ
Mike Cameron SD
Brady Clark BOS
Jeff DaVanon ARZ
Adam Dunn * CIN
Jermaine Dye CWS
Darin Erstad * CWS
Kosuke Fukudome, Chunichi, Japan
Luis Gonzalez LAD
Shawn Green* NYM
Eric Hinske BOS
Torii Hunter MIN
Geoff Jenkins * MIL
Andruw Jones ATL
Bobby Kielty OAK
Rob Mackowiak * SD
Orlando Palmeiro HOU
Corey Patterson BAL
Aaron Rowand PHI
Reggie Sanders KC
Brad Wilkerson TEX
Asterisks mean there's a 2008 option of some sort. Ick, that's not a pretty list.
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.
Aaron Rowand
by Zel123 on Aug 7, 2007 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd much much rather
by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions
11.9 if you get rid of menchkins
another 9.7 million if you get rid of
Graffanino
Vargas
Wise
and Miller. all in last year of their deal.
for a grand total of 21.6 million
I'm pretty sure
by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Yep
and 16 of our millions for 10...
and 16 of our millions for 11...
and 16 of our millions for 12.
(That's an $80MM/5y deal, which may end up pretty low -- do you really think Dunn deserves less than Caballo got?)
by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 7, 2007 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions
But Ugh he hit little white ball so hard
But I am scared to death because not many Brewers big signings have done all that well in the past.
So what would make me think another big signing would work out.
I would rather start locking up young guys. But I would not be all that upset if Dunn became a Brewer.
considering our success with scrap heapers
by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions
actually
given all the arbitration guys we have, like Capuano and Estrada, plus some of the young guys hitting arby for the first time, we may have very little extra money. $20MM doesn't get you very far when you're bleeding a $2M raise here, another there.
And while scrap heap guys are great, scrap heap guys aren't free. Almost impossible to get a backup catcher for less than $800k, can't get a decent one for much less than Damian's making. And I doubt Doug is going to fill the bullpen with $400k guys, though he wouldn't make a big splash.
by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 7, 2007 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Frickin Arbys
by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions
heck...
Anyway, I wouldn't mind keeping Damian on at his current salary if he continues to put up lines like '04 to '07. I recall the player option he's on for this year is already cheaper than the main portion of his contract was, so he's more or less in "decent backup" territory already as far as the money goes.
Preseason odds
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.
well
by IronBMike on Aug 7, 2007 12:37 PM CDT reply actions
09 Left Fielder
The elephant in the corner....
Maybe platoon Mench and Gwynn next year and bring up Laporta after that.
I think I'd rather spend the money on a #2 starter.
Quentin
Quentin (hamstring) is finding it difficult to avoid being tagged as injury-prone, MLB.com reports.
"I've dealt with some things and I'll deal with this and get back," Quentin said after being placed on the 15-day DL Thursday with a
strained right hamstring. He required ligament replacement surgery on his throwing elbow after being drafted in the first round of the 2003
First Year Player Draft, then suffered a shoulder injury in spring training that forced him to start this season on the disabled list. "Obviously luck has not gone his way," Arizona general manager Josh Byrnes observed. Quentin's ability to remain healthy will be
instrumental in defining his future with the Diamondbacks.
From the Arizona Republic:
"Outfielder Carlos Quentin, who entered Wednesday hitting .375 (12 for 32) in 10 games since being sent to Triple-A, said this week in Tucson that he would likely undergo surgery after the season to repair a left labrum tear he suffered during spring training."
If you want to take an injury risk, sure, Quentin could be great. Based on his major league numbers and his injury problems, I would not want to rely on him in LF with Hall in CF. I don't think it was just by chance that the Diamondbacks signed Byrnes to a 3 year contract and Quentin went on the DL all in one week. I think Quentin is more of a project and we already are dealing with Weeks.
by MunichBrats on Aug 7, 2007 1:12 PM CDT reply actions
'08 OF
CF Torii Hunter
RF Corey Hart
by SunglassesAtNight on Aug 7, 2007 4:13 PM CDT reply actions
In our drooling dreams...
I beg to differ...
Torii Hunter is not a premier centerfielder. He's an overrated defender with a career .270/.324/.470 line in a hitter's park who turns 33 next season. He doesn't hit for a great average, doesn't walk, and has never hit 30 homers. He's 7th in the A.L. (out of 11 qualifiers) in Zone Rating among centerfielders, and was 7th out of 10 qualifiers last season.
He's having his best season with the bat right now, leading some folks to say that he's not as big a risk to decline in his 30s...but the reality is, he simply got off to a hot start. His OPS by month:
April -- 1003
May -- 884
June -- 828
July -- 769
He's not an elite player, and he's likely to be a not particularly good player in the next few years. BP's PECOTA/MORP system -- which has been criticized for wildly overvaluing what players are worth in the free agent market -- says that Hunter's likely 2008-11 production is worth about $8 million per season. It is likely going to cost twice that to sign him.
Torii Hunter is likely to be average, at best, and quite possibly a 4th outfielder, over the life of the contract he's going to get this offseason...
Torii Hunter is not an elite player. Bringing him to Texas and paying him like an elite player would, based on what I've been reading, get fans and the media fired up and provide "proof" that Tom Hicks is committed to winning.
But what it would really do is provide another budgetary drain for a guy who would be vastly overpaid to provide middling performance.
by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions
morp
what free agents are "worth" is another story, but there are only so many ways to improve your team, and there are 29 other organizations competing for the same scarce assets.
but, your point is correct regardless: spending $15MM per for Torii would be disastrous for us. Maybe the Yankees could stomach it, but no way we can spend 20% of our payroll on someone who is overrated.
by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 7, 2007 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree on Torii
I'm a little concerned about the Hall, Gwynn, Hart outfield though. Hall's defense has really improved in CF, and I think his bat doesn't justify a corner OF spot. I'd like to see him stick in CF.
I know I may be banned from the site for saying this, but does Melvin just pick up Jenkins' option? It would be for one year and cost about half as much as what Hunter, Jones, etc. will want. His half of the platoon has been pretty good this year. If Melvin could find a warm body not named Mench to plug in as the other half, possibly trading Nix, Gross, and/or Gwynn to get him, the Crew might be able to hold serve until '09. Then maybe the free agent market has something better or (pause to pray) LaPorta arrives on the scene.
I'll be quiet while you all hurl rotten e-vegetables.
by shooty babitt on Aug 8, 2007 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Menchkins
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.
IF
Jinxie were making, say $4-5 mil a season
and IF
Neddy ballgame treated it as a strict platoon
then
I'd be pretty ok with Menchkins in 2009.
Still, I'd rather have our leftfielder take up one roster spot instead of two, though it doesn't sound like there are many decent options out there. (Sure, there's Dunn, but his L/R splits are awful too, and he'd be too expensive.)
I gotta learn how to do the gray box thingie
by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 5:19 PM CDT reply actions
grey box thingy
by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 7, 2007 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Sounds like
Does BCB allow strikethrough? Considering how sarcasm and mockery are mainstays of this site, strikethrough would be a handy tool.
I don't think so
by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 7, 2007 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions
tryin it out
by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 5:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Holy crap!
That's a heck of a lot of money for hustle.
I guess hustle is worth
Hustle plus:
by Zel123 on Aug 7, 2007 11:39 PM CDT up reply actions
then I'm glad you don't run the Brewers
but it's a career year, coming at age 31, no less. and even in his career year he's not much above average for a left fielder. the career OBP of .329 doesn't bode well for his age 32-34 seasons.
by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 8, 2007 6:27 AM CDT up reply actions
Im making the point...
by Zel123 on Aug 8, 2007 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions
It's even better when you compare him to Mench
Byrnes vs. LHP, career: .296/.359/.528
Mench vs. RHP, career: .256/.311/.423
Byrnes vs. RHP, career: .255/.315/.424
Mench is younger, too. But...I've said all that before.
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.
Here's the problem
Some of you guys criticized Al's article at the other BCB, about theriot and his hustle. Well Byrnes brings his hustle, and though it may not seem like much, some of the Brewers could take a note from the way brynes plays. Maybe he's great in the clubhouse with the younger players, that goes a long way too, much like Linebrink in San Deigo.
You guys know that Brynes brings much more to the table than Mench ever could. Did you guys watch how many bases Brynes stole on the Brewers alone in their last series? He manufactures runs by himself. He hustles, he plays dirty,in terms of his uniform , and he plays the game like it should be. He's the type of guy that doesnt start Spring Training crying about playing time. He plays hard and he'll seem to do most anything to help his team win. He brings intangibles that we desperately lack.
by Zel123 on Aug 8, 2007 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Like I've said before
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.
I would have wanted the brewers to trade
Im just hoping that Attanasio starts forking over more money,epecially if the team makes the playoffs.
by Zel123 on Aug 8, 2007 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Don't get me wrong...
I realize we are a small market team, but that only goes so far. If we sell out the stadium like we've been doing and new fans will start following the team, then the payroll should go up significantly.
Currently we have the 19th highest payroll, i wouldnt mind getting it around 12th, but only if we make the playoffs.
by Zel123 on Aug 8, 2007 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Not me
It's a gamble, but a worthwhile one, IMHO.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 55 | .586 | 0 | Won 4 |
|
St. Louis
|
69 | 62 | .526 | 8 | Lost 5 |
|
Houston
|
62 | 71 | .466 | 16 | Won 3 |
|
Milwaukee
|
62 | 71 | .466 | 16 | Lost 3 |
|
Chicago
|
57 | 77 | .425 | 21.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
44 | 89 | .330 | 34 | Lost 1 |
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