Carlos Quentin and Cubs Odds

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 7, 2007 12:18 PM CDT in Milwaukee Brewers News

The two things in the headline have nothing to do with each other. It's just that neither of them merit their own post.

First, the recent Cubs slide has made it a little more likely that the Wild Card is not coming out of the central. No shock there. That means that my favorite toy, the Postseason Odds Report, has pushed the Cubs odds back down under 50%. The Brewers are still hanging in there at 61%. What's been sad lately is how the third-order winning percentages have sagged as well; Cubs and Brewers are both under .520, while both were around .530 not long ago, and both have seen the bright side of .550 at some point this year.

Second, the D-Backs signed Eric Byrnes to a three-year extension. That basically locks in their outfield as Byrnes, Chris Young, and Justin Upton through 2010. With first base occupied by Conor Jackson, that makes Carlos Quentin expendable. Quentin struggled in the bigs this year, and has had some injury problems, but he's a quality player. He's no Quad-A guy -- he's shown the talent at the big-league level. And look at these minor league OBPs. Wow.

The price may be high, but I'd love for Doug Melvin to get into those trade discussions this offseason. If it's decided that Bill Hall is going to stick in center, that leaves left field as the obvious gap next year. I'd much rather find someone like Quentin than sign some middle-tier free agent to a $24MM/3 year deal.

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Heh

You know this team needs another Wisconsin home-grown product: Eric Hinske's going to be a free agent this offseason.

But anyway, here's the list of potential free agent outfielders, from Cot's Baseball Contracts:

Bobby Abreu * NYY
Moises Alou * NYM
Milton Bradley SD
Eric Byrnes ARZ
Mike Cameron SD
Brady Clark BOS
Jeff DaVanon ARZ
Adam Dunn * CIN
Jermaine Dye CWS
Darin Erstad * CWS
Kosuke Fukudome, Chunichi, Japan
Luis Gonzalez LAD
Shawn Green* NYM
Eric Hinske BOS
Torii Hunter MIN
Geoff Jenkins * MIL
Andruw Jones ATL
Bobby Kielty OAK
Rob Mackowiak * SD
Orlando Palmeiro HOU
Corey Patterson BAL
Aaron Rowand PHI
Reggie Sanders KC
Brad Wilkerson TEX

Asterisks mean there's a 2008 option of some sort. Ick, that's not a pretty list.

Cubs catchers since 6/20: 160 PA, 24 H, 38 TB, .167/.258/.264
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.

by TheJay on Aug 7, 2007 12:26 PM CDT reply actions

Aaron Rowand

I like how he plays and hits. Put up the money doug.

Ned's comments on his altercation with JJ: "I think I did that with every intention of having somebody stand up. Its part of trying to get a team going."

by Zel123 on Aug 7, 2007 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions

I'd much much rather

blow our free agent wad on Dunn

All Hail The Razor!!! Braun is The Savior!!!

by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions

How much is our free agent wad?

by MunichBrats on Aug 7, 2007 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions

11.9 if you get rid of menchkins

by getting rid of Jenkins and Mench you would have 11.9 million freed up in left field alone.

another 9.7 million if you get rid of

Graffanino
Vargas
Wise
and Miller. all in last year of their deal.

for a grand total of 21.6 million

Fire Ned, Hire Joe Girardi

by WSB Chris on Aug 7, 2007 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm pretty sure

that 16 of that 21 million will get Dunn

All Hail The Razor!!! Braun is The Savior!!!

by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Yep

and 16 of our millions for 09...
and 16 of our millions for 10...
and 16 of our millions for 11...
and 16 of our millions for 12.

(That's an $80MM/5y deal, which may end up pretty low -- do you really think Dunn deserves less than Caballo got?)

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 7, 2007 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions

But Ugh he hit little white ball so hard

I love Dunn and ESK has shown me his numbers are better than people think and I would love to see him put the little white ball into the 300 club lol. I lived with Carlos Lee in left I can live with Dunn's defense

But I am scared to death because not many Brewers big signings have done all that well in the past.

So what would make me think another big signing would work out.

I would rather start locking up young guys. But I would not be all that upset if Dunn became a Brewer.

Fire Ned, Hire Joe Girardi

by WSB Chris on Aug 7, 2007 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions

considering our success with scrap heapers

I'm pretty sure that keeping the payroll at around 70 mil can include Dunn. How can Milwaukee not love a bigger hitting Rob Deer Clone

All Hail The Razor!!! Braun is The Savior!!!

by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions

actually

this is something else TheJay did a good job analyzing in a comment somewhere...

given all the arbitration guys we have, like Capuano and Estrada, plus some of the young guys hitting arby for the first time, we may have very little extra money. $20MM doesn't get you very far when you're bleeding a $2M raise here, another there.

And while scrap heap guys are great, scrap heap guys aren't free. Almost impossible to get a backup catcher for less than $800k, can't get a decent one for much less than Damian's making. And I doubt Doug is going to fill the bullpen with $400k guys, though he wouldn't make a big splash.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 7, 2007 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Frickin Arbys

Their food sucks, and it's going to cost us Dunn.

All Hail The Razor!!! Braun is The Savior!!!

by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions

heck...

I think even Chad Moeller was making 800k or thereabouts, and "backup catcher" was a very charitable description for the guy. I did like him as a person though, always seemed to be pretty thoughtful in his interviews...Brewers skipper circa 2022? :) Heck, try him at Rock's job in case Cirillo isn't available and I'll be happy.

Anyway, I wouldn't mind keeping Damian on at his current salary if he continues to put up lines like '04 to '07. I recall the player option he's on for this year is already cheaper than the main portion of his contract was, so he's more or less in "decent backup" territory already as far as the money goes.

by Zeyes on Aug 7, 2007 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Preseason odds

How many people thought Washington had a reasonable shot to finish in fourth place in the NL East coming into the season?

Cubs catchers since 6/20: 160 PA, 24 H, 38 TB, .167/.258/.264
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.

by TheJay on Aug 7, 2007 12:30 PM CDT reply actions

well

i did :)

Nats and Brew Crew are where it's at

by IronBMike on Aug 7, 2007 12:37 PM CDT reply actions

09 Left Fielder

I do believe one Brooks Kieschnick can play some outfield, bet it wouldn't cost a lot to get him out of retirement.

I have seen the coming of the Lord. Savior, thy name is Gallardo.

by ESK on Aug 7, 2007 12:53 PM CDT reply actions

whoops

clearly that should read 08...hell, he can have the spot whenever he wants it.

I have seen the coming of the Lord. Savior, thy name is Gallardo.

by ESK on Aug 7, 2007 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions

The elephant in the corner....

Is LaPorta. If he is going to be in the majors soon, why sign anyone else?

Maybe platoon Mench and Gwynn next year and bring up Laporta after that.

I think I'd rather spend the money on a #2 starter.

by grant76 on Aug 7, 2007 12:55 PM CDT reply actions

Quentin

From Rotowire:
Quentin (hamstring) is finding it difficult to avoid being tagged as injury-prone, MLB.com reports.

"I've dealt with some things and I'll deal with this and get back," Quentin said after being placed on the 15-day DL Thursday with a
strained right hamstring. He required ligament replacement surgery on his throwing elbow after being drafted in the first round of the 2003
First Year Player Draft, then suffered a shoulder injury in spring training that forced him to start this season on the disabled list. "Obviously luck has not gone his way," Arizona general manager Josh Byrnes observed. Quentin's ability to remain healthy will be
instrumental in defining his future with the Diamondbacks.

From the Arizona Republic:
"Outfielder Carlos Quentin, who entered Wednesday hitting .375 (12 for 32) in 10 games since being sent to Triple-A, said this week in Tucson that he would likely undergo surgery after the season to repair a left labrum tear he suffered during spring training."

If you want to take an injury risk, sure, Quentin could be great. Based on his major league numbers and his injury problems, I would not want to rely on him in LF with Hall in CF. I don't think it was just by chance that the Diamondbacks signed Byrnes to a 3 year contract and Quentin went on the DL all in one week. I think Quentin is more of a project and we already are dealing with Weeks.

by MunichBrats on Aug 7, 2007 1:12 PM CDT reply actions

'08 OF

LF Bill Hall
CF Torii Hunter
RF Corey Hart

by SunglassesAtNight on Aug 7, 2007 4:13 PM CDT reply actions

In our drooling dreams...

...

Watching Yovani pitch probably compares to driving a Lamborghini Gallardo.

by TAPmoney on Aug 7, 2007 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions

I beg to differ...

Adam Miller at Lone Star Ball broke down Torii very well:

Torii Hunter is not a premier centerfielder. He's an overrated defender with a career .270/.324/.470 line in a hitter's park who turns 33 next season. He doesn't hit for a great average, doesn't walk, and has never hit 30 homers. He's 7th in the A.L. (out of 11 qualifiers) in Zone Rating among centerfielders, and was 7th out of 10 qualifiers last season.

He's having his best season with the bat right now, leading some folks to say that he's not as big a risk to decline in his 30s...but the reality is, he simply got off to a hot start. His OPS by month:

April -- 1003
May -- 884
June -- 828
July -- 769

He's not an elite player, and he's likely to be a not particularly good player in the next few years. BP's PECOTA/MORP system -- which has been criticized for wildly overvaluing what players are worth in the free agent market -- says that Hunter's likely 2008-11 production is worth about $8 million per season. It is likely going to cost twice that to sign him.

Torii Hunter is likely to be average, at best, and quite possibly a 4th outfielder, over the life of the contract he's going to get this offseason...

Torii Hunter is not an elite player. Bringing him to Texas and paying him like an elite player would, based on what I've been reading, get fans and the media fired up and provide "proof" that Tom Hicks is committed to winning.

But what it would really do is provide another budgetary drain for a guy who would be vastly overpaid to provide middling performance.

All Hail The Razor!!! Braun is The Savior!!!

by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions

morp

actually, i think MORP is low compared to what free agents should be expected to get.

what free agents are "worth" is another story, but there are only so many ways to improve your team, and there are 29 other organizations competing for the same scarce assets.

but, your point is correct regardless: spending $15MM per for Torii would be disastrous for us. Maybe the Yankees could stomach it, but no way we can spend 20% of our payroll on someone who is overrated.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 7, 2007 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree on Torii

With our without the gray box thingie, this nails down Torri Hunter pretty well. I would scream, puke, then scream again if the Brewers signed him to a long term deal.

I'm a little concerned about the Hall, Gwynn, Hart outfield though. Hall's defense has really improved in CF, and I think his bat doesn't justify a corner OF spot. I'd like to see him stick in CF.

I know I may be banned from the site for saying this, but does Melvin just pick up Jenkins' option? It would be for one year and cost about half as much as what Hunter, Jones, etc. will want. His half of the platoon has been pretty good this year. If Melvin could find a warm body not named Mench to plug in as the other half, possibly trading Nix, Gross, and/or Gwynn to get him, the Crew might be able to hold serve until '09. Then maybe the free agent market has something better or (pause to pray) LaPorta arrives on the scene.

I'll be quiet while you all hurl rotten e-vegetables.

Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.

by shooty babitt on Aug 8, 2007 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions

Menchkins

As far as I know, Mench is still eligible for arbitration, so the entire platoon could conceivably be back next year.

Cubs catchers since 6/20: 164 PA, 24 H, 38 TB, .163/.258/.259
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.

by TheJay on Aug 8, 2007 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions

IF

(and it's a big if)

Jinxie were making, say $4-5 mil a season

and IF

Neddy ballgame treated it as a strict platoon

then

I'd be pretty ok with Menchkins in 2009.

Still, I'd rather have our leftfielder take up one roster spot instead of two, though it doesn't sound like there are many decent options out there. (Sure, there's Dunn, but his L/R splits are awful too, and he'd be too expensive.)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Aug 8, 2007 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions

I gotta learn how to do the gray box thingie

Anyway, considering how horrible the pitching market is going to be with Zambrano, and then guys either too old (starters Schilling, Rogers, Lieber, etc. and relievers Wickman, Isringhausen, etc) , or way too fragile (starters Freddy Garcia, Jarret Wright, John Thompson, etc. and relievers Benitez, Wood, Julio, etc.), The best way for the crew to add on would be a trade. Unfortunately, since Linebrink cost us Inman, and no other sure fire prospects in our system, we have no bullets. It may have to be Gwynn for center, Hall in left, and Corey in Right with Gross and TBD coming off the bench.

All Hail The Razor!!! Braun is The Savior!!!

by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 5:19 PM CDT reply actions

grey box thingy

<div class="blockquote">stuff in grey box</div>

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 7, 2007 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Sounds like

a link to go under "useful links" on the front page! (Along with our Magic Number.)

Does BCB allow strikethrough? Considering how sarcasm and mockery are mainstays of this site, strikethrough would be a handy tool.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Aug 7, 2007 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't think so

I looked into it one day, and couldn't find it. The software that this site runs on has really complicated rules governing what html tags are allowed, for what users, and so on. Seems like overkill to me.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 7, 2007 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions

tryin it out

hey, it works

All Hail The Razor!!! Braun is The Savior!!!

by hyattff2003 on Aug 7, 2007 5:59 PM CDT up reply actions

Nope

It didn't work. You should try it again.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Aug 7, 2007 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions

Holy crap!

Eric Byrnes's contract extension is for 3 years, $30 mil, according to Yahoo!. Plus, he's 31 already.

That's a heck of a lot of money for hustle.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Aug 7, 2007 8:37 PM CDT reply actions

I guess hustle is worth

$5 million per year. Da Meat Hook got 2 years at $10 million and he turns 34 in October.

by molitorfan on Aug 7, 2007 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions

Hustle plus:

a .303 average, 17 hrs, 64 rbi's, 68 runs, and 28 stolen bases. I would take his 10 million dollar contract over Suppan anyday.

Ned's comments on his altercation with JJ: "I think I did that with every intention of having somebody stand up. Its part of trying to get a team going."

by Zel123 on Aug 7, 2007 11:39 PM CDT up reply actions

then I'm glad you don't run the Brewers

is he having a good year? yes, of course.

but it's a career year, coming at age 31, no less. and even in his career year he's not much above average for a left fielder. the career OBP of .329 doesn't bode well for his age 32-34 seasons.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 8, 2007 6:27 AM CDT up reply actions

Im making the point...

that Suppan is WAY overpayed and I believe that Byrnes would have been a better addition. All I know is the diamondbacks have a better record than us, and we have more talent. So they must be doing something right. Im not going to criticize their moves, except for maybe Randy Johnson. Maybe Byrnes is hitting his stride late in his career,alla, Barry Bonds, wink,wink. Back to Suppan, he's 32 years old, with a career 4.62 era, and a horrible 1.42 whip, and we didnt even sign him after having a career year. All im saying is the Brewers could have found a righty pitcher with 2 good pitches, who can't even hit 90mph, at a much cheaper price.

Ned's comments on his altercation with JJ: "I think I did that with every intention of having somebody stand up. Its part of trying to get a team going."

by Zel123 on Aug 8, 2007 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions

It's even better when you compare him to Mench

Mench vs. LHP, career: .304/.362/.556
Byrnes vs. LHP, career: .296/.359/.528

Mench vs. RHP, career: .256/.311/.423
Byrnes vs. RHP, career: .255/.315/.424

Mench is younger, too. But...I've said all that before.

Cubs catchers since 6/20: 164 PA, 24 H, 38 TB, .163/.258/.259
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.

by TheJay on Aug 8, 2007 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions

Here's the problem

You guys fail to look at intangibles. Im not taking anything away from you guys, cause I think you're all very smart,borderline genius', but sometimes stats don't tell the whole story.

Some of you guys criticized Al's article at the other BCB, about theriot and his hustle. Well Byrnes brings his hustle, and though it may not seem like much, some of the Brewers could take a note from the way brynes plays. Maybe he's great in the clubhouse with the younger players, that goes a long way too, much like Linebrink in San Deigo.

You guys know that Brynes brings much more to the table than Mench ever could. Did you guys watch how many bases Brynes stole on the Brewers alone in their last series? He manufactures runs by himself. He hustles, he plays dirty,in terms of his uniform , and he plays the game like it should be. He's the type of guy that doesnt start Spring Training crying about playing time. He plays hard and he'll seem to do most anything to help his team win. He brings intangibles that we desperately lack.

Ned's comments on his altercation with JJ: "I think I did that with every intention of having somebody stand up. Its part of trying to get a team going."

by Zel123 on Aug 8, 2007 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions

Like I've said before

It's great he hustles and plays the game the "right way." It's just unfortunate he's no more valuable with the bat than Kevin Mench is. Say Mench gets $4.2 million in arbitration this year (a little bigger raise than last year). Is Byrnes' ability to play CF, presumably better defense, and hustling intangibles worth $5.8 million all by themselves? Might a team like the Brewers be better off to cache that 5 or 6 million away either for the future or upgrades to the rest of the team?

Cubs catchers since 6/20: 164 PA, 24 H, 38 TB, .163/.258/.259
"There are freaking geeks out there who get ... off on this kind of stuff," Melvin said.

by TheJay on Aug 8, 2007 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions

I would have wanted the brewers to trade

for byrnes more than sign him for that money, but my original point was that Suppan is WAY overpayed, probably more than byrnes.

Im just hoping that Attanasio starts forking over more money,epecially if the team makes the playoffs.

Ned's comments on his altercation with JJ: "I think I did that with every intention of having somebody stand up. Its part of trying to get a team going."

by Zel123 on Aug 8, 2007 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions

err...

You make it sound as though Attanasio has been ignoring the payroll these last few years.

by Zeyes on Aug 8, 2007 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions

Don't get me wrong...

Attanasio was a huge upgrade from the Selig's, and he has consistently put money into the team. My only hope is that if they make the playoffs, he really starts shelling out money.

I realize we are a small market team, but that only goes so far. If we sell out the stadium like we've been doing and new fans will start following the team, then the payroll should go up significantly.

Currently we have the 19th highest payroll, i wouldnt mind getting it around 12th, but only if we make the playoffs.

Ned's comments on his altercation with JJ: "I think I did that with every intention of having somebody stand up. Its part of trying to get a team going."

by Zel123 on Aug 8, 2007 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Not me

Although I'd like it more if he pitched a little better, I don't mind the Suppan deal that much. Before this season, he hasn't had an ERA higher than 4.16 in any of the past 4 years.

It's a gamble, but a worthwhile one, IMHO.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Aug 8, 2007 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions

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	PCT	STRK
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	.000	Lost 0
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