Is It Really This Easy?
If you had told me in October that Mike Cameron could be had for a $5MM, one-year deal, I would've been spared an awful lot of thinking. Given the free-agent/trade options, this is the best possible outcome for the Brewers, and it isn't even close.
First of all, I should say that I'm really surprised Doug Melvin opted for the Braun-to-LF, Hall-to-3B scenario. If this was Strat-o-Matic, that would be obviously the right move, but even a hardcore stathead like me can see that it might not be the best idea to move Billy for the second year in a row, and to give Braun something else to think about in his first full season in the bigs.
Now that it's done, though, I think it'll be ok. Of course Hall has played plenty of third base in his life, and--knock on wood--I can't see his bat suffering any more than it did last year. I'm a bit more worried about Braun, but LF is probably the easiest position on the diamond, and he's an athletic guy. What's more, he's got three and a half months until Opening Day to get after it.
On to the good part. Mike Cameron is quite possibly the best defensive center fielder in baseball. This move improves our defensive substantially at two positions--3B and CF--and it probably makes Braun less of a liability in that regard.
Better still, Cameron is a solid offensive contributor. His unadjusted stats--242/328/431--are not too inspiring for 2007 in Petco, but taking the park into account, that's an above-average offensive player at a premium defensive position. And it's the worst he's hit since 1998. While Menchkins was (were? I'm not up to speed on the grammar of platoon names) decent last year, their park-adjusted stats were not as good.
In addition to having two position players switch spots, there is a negative: Cameron's 25-game suspension to open the season. It's certainly not ideal, but if that's what meant we could get him for $5MM instead of $10MM (which is probably what he's worth on a one-year deal), it's a small price to pay. Either Gwynn will hold down the fort for a few weeks, or Hart will play center and Gross, etc. will cover right. Not a huge loss either way.
There's one more negative: LaPorta is now blocked. If Braun is in left, I think it's safe to assume that he's not going back to third anytime soon. I'm not sure how big of a deal this is. There was speculation from draft day on that LaPorta was drafted as trade bait for the 2008 or '09 club. Maybe that'll still happen. Or maybe Corey Hart will go on the block, with Braun moving to right. Whatever happens, it probably won't happen this year, and the current alignment of the team gives us many more reasons to be excited about 2008 than anything beyond that.
One more interesting aspect here. I assumed all along that however we filled the 3B/LF/CF gap, it would involve trading Capuano. It certainly looked that way when the Rolen trade was on the table. While Cappy is no more than a 4th starter right now, he's still quite useful. A rotation of Sheets/Gallardo/Suppan/Cappy/Bush projects a whole lot better than anything involving Vargas, and it means Villanueva can either contribute from the pen, or be the #6 guy, as (inevitably) need be. It also gives us the chance to deal Cappy at the deadline for whatever we need then--maybe he'll bounce back in the first half and we'll get more value for him in July than we would right now.
If you can't tell, I'm ecstatic. Signing Cameron for five million bucks erases all the stupidity of the Estrada/Mota/Wise disaster, and more.
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No, sir
It's not a big deal, though. I think Cameron will perform at a level we could have had from Gwynn, but maybe the big name makes it easier for Braun to accept the move.
The bigger problem I have with this article is that you have Cappy as the 4th starter? No sir, until he can earn his way back into the rotation, that spot belongs to Carlos V. Cappy sucked his way into long relief, and he's still stuck there.
It's kinda refreshing to disagree with you, Jeff. Maybe someone else hacked your account.....jacob, maybe? :)
by Marty McSuperFly on Jan 14, 2008 12:24 PM CST 0 recs
decline
I think it's ridiculous to compare Gwynn to Cameron ... maybe they are similar defensively, but while Cameron is an average-ish MLB hitter, Gwynn is barely better than average for AAA.
If Cappy's on the team on April 1st, he'll be in the rotation. I don't know that I'm behind that decision, but that's what the decision will be, I'm almost positive. I don't really care whether we call him #3, #4, or #5. It probably doesn't matter much -- someone will get hurt or traded and Villy will get plenty of starts this year.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jan 14, 2008 2:08 PM CST
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If you say so
It's too early for me to start playing the actual rotation game. I'm sure you're right, that Cappy will be in there, but it shouldn't be at the expense of Villanueva. Either Bush or Cappy need to give way to Carlos this year.
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jan 14, 2008 2:48 PM CST
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Over the last 4-5?
Even last year when his hitting percentages slumped a bit, he still had decent production. With the giant bonus to team defense, he's certainly worth what we're going to pay him.
by stevie ray Braun on
Jan 14, 2008 6:31 PM CST
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That's it
I'm not actively against Cameron, I just don't feel the excitement. He seems to me to be a guy on the downside of his career, and not likely to provide much that we didn't already have available. His defense is good, but I don't know that Hall needed to be replaced in center, either. I wanted for Melvin to get an actual power-hitting left-fielder, and instead he shuffled the pieces around so that we don't know what we're getting in 2008. Hopefully, Billy takes back to third in a hurry, Cameron returns from his suspension in shape to start playing this awesome defense I hear so much about, and Braun doesn't sail a lot of balls over the head of the cutoff man. I guess there's no arguing that we have a power-hitting left fielder, though.
To be clear, I don't think Cameron is the big mound of suck that Kendall is, but I fail to see anything to be excited about. It just looks like a lot of players being shuffled around because Melvin couldn't make a better deal.
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jan 14, 2008 7:47 PM CST
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Re: platoon grammar
by newguy on Jan 14, 2008 2:16 PM CST 0 recs
Pretty much agree
People tend to underappreciate Cameron offensively because of his poor home parks for basically his entire career. Cameron in his "bad" year last season hit .254/.341/.449 on the road and I'd say that's about what he'll put up next year.
I think he'll have a solid to great year with the Brewers and the defensive changes they made will make the entire team look better. They're replacing two of the worst defensive players in baseball at their positions (Hall in CF, Braun at 3B) with a guy who should be well-above average (Cameron in CF) and a guy who should be about league average (Hall at 3B). There will likely be a bit of defensive downgrade in LF but defense is much less of a premium at that position.
by kingcharlesxii on Jan 14, 2008 2:17 PM CST 0 recs
Career
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jan 14, 2008 2:50 PM CST
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Yep
by kingcharlesxii on
Jan 14, 2008 4:06 PM CST
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Hart
A Braun/Hart/LaPorta outfield would be stacked if the pieces could somehow fit together.
by thekid2point0 on Jan 14, 2008 5:55 PM CST 0 recs
i agree, kid.
by baumann on
Jan 14, 2008 6:49 PM CST
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Someone has to say it
by TheJay on
Jan 14, 2008 7:17 PM CST
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Short deals
by molitorfan on Jan 14, 2008 8:08 PM CST 0 recs
Optimism
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jan 14, 2008 10:28 PM CST
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Offense
The only player I can remember it being a problem for is Bill Hall. Maybe it's just Bill Hall.
What if Melvin said we are moving Hardy to 3B and Hall back to SS? Would Hall still have a problem with moving positions? I think Hall feels he should be the SS on this team and that's the real problem.
by HH26 on Jan 15, 2008 7:38 AM CST 0 recs
Hall may not be wrong
by HH26 on
Jan 15, 2008 9:34 AM CST
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However
On a side note, what are the odds Hall will actually end up at short at some point during the season, when Hardy goes down with another injury? I would think Hall would play a better short than Counsell, so does Yost risk pissing off Hall more, by another move mid-season?
by MadJimiBrewha on
Jan 15, 2008 10:53 AM CST
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Not A Cameron fan.
A more radical idea would be to trade Hardy -- his trade value may never be higher. If you could land, say, Erik Bedard for Hardy and move Hall to SS, that would go increase our chances quite a bit for a postseason appearance.
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 15, 2008 3:33 PM CST 0 recs
Why are so many people here so down on Cameron?
Enough with the platoon shit, and salary shit. THERE IS NO SALARY CAP IN MLB. Let Mark A and his cohorts spend what they want. This team is clearly better than any team we've had since probably the '80s.
We have TWO LEGIT MVP CANDIDATES, For godsakes!
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Jan 15, 2008 3:59 PM CST 0 recs
I don't hate Cameron, but...
MC's numbers pre-2007 aren't terrific, he still was a strikeout machine with a low OBP and he's older now.
Hope his ideas on when to swing the bat or how to enhance performance via supplements isn't part of the vet wisdom he's going to impart on the youngsters!
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 15, 2008 4:07 PM CST 0 recs
No lift?
From 1997 (his first full season or his career minus his first 56 plate appearances) to 2007, Cameron had an OPS of .789 and an OPS+ of 107. Let's look at all the players who had 2000 or more plate appearances in that span and who spent at least 50% of their games in center field.
First, in terms of just OPS, Cameron is fifteenth, right behind Torii Hunter and tied with an aging Brady Anderson. Kenny Lofton is right below him at .786, so what Lofton gives you in on base percentage is what Cameron gives you in slugging percentage. As an aside, it's kind of interesting that Dave Roberts has the same OPS as Corey Patterson.
Here's the list using OPS+, which takes into account park and league and all that fun stuff. Cameron then moves up to eleventh. Lofton is fifteenth with 103 now, but still behind Cameron.
This doesn't even take into account defense. It'd be nice if Cameron got on base more, sure, but his defense is much better than that of the other free agent options (I'm thinking mostly of Lofton). Given that Cameron's a better offensive and defensive player and younger (doesn't mean much, since they're both on the downside of their careers), I think it's hard to say Lofton would be a better signing.
I'm not sure what higher-OBP, cheaper options there are without trading a whole bunch of players for them. I think a relatively cheap (heck, LOOGYs get $2 million now) one-year commitment to an aging but still good overall (especially defensively) player is worth it.
Finally, and this may be taking your point too far, I don't get the rally-killing strikeouts point as it relates to Hall and Jenkins. Even if we very loosely define a rally-killing strikeout as one with at least one runner somewhere beyond first base (i.e., in scoring position), Hall struck out 27 times in 135 chances (20.0%). That's actually less often than he struck out overall (128 K in 503 PA comes to 25.4%). In his career, he has struck out 22.8% of the time he come to bat with RISP as opposed to 24.4% of the time overall. If anything, he's slightly less likely to strike out in a rally situation. In his career, Jenkins has struck out in 22.7% of his plate appearances. With runners in scoring position, it's 22.7% again. Compared to Prince Fielder (18.9% overall vs. 20.5% with RISP), guys that keep their K rate steady or even lower it with RISP are valuable. :) (yes, yes, Fielder still strikes out less than either of those two, but still...)
I guess I figure with regular players getting between 125-175 PA with RISP during the year, you'd expect almost anyone on the roster to strike out 25-35 times in my rally-killing scenario (I know that everyone has their own idea of when a rally is killed, which is a problem as well). Psychologically it stings more when it's someone like Hall or Jenkins because they're not the golden-boy uberprospects and they strike out a lot anyway, but the difference between them and another player on the roster is minimal. On the other extreme is a player like Johnny Estrada who didn't strike out but didn't have much luck with avoiding DPs. Who knows, maybe Cameron will continue to rake with RISP (.266/.371/.472 in his career), occasional ill-timed strikeouts or not.
I agree that a high-OBP, cheap player would be the best but I think the front office did okay without having to pay through the nose (especially since at best the starter de jour of the Diftosynn bunch would probably at best give you Cameron's equal offensively without the same defense). Alright, I'm done rambling on and on now. :)
by TheJay on
Jan 15, 2008 10:02 PM CST
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#24
The year was 1992, July, against the ChiSox and Chris Bosio and Charlie Hough had a duel going that had both teams going into the ninth scoreless. The Sox get some guys on in the top of the ninth and a shot is hit to DH and he throws the guy out at home to end the inning.
In the bottom of the ninth, Scott Fletcher, yes him, comes up with two guys on and sneaks one around the left field foul pole into that weird alley that they had there at the old park and the Crew wins over the evil Southsiders.
Greatest. Game. Ever. For me at least. And I was at the Series in '82.
by Jwillie67 on
Jan 17, 2008 11:12 PM CST
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On the issue of strikeouts
Obviously these are just basic statistics, but to compare the seasons of Cameron and Jenkins (who he's essentially replacing), as well as Estrada (who's absence will at the very least neutralize Cameron's pitfalls) it appears on the surface as if Cameron is a better hitter as well as much better fielder than we had:
In 2007 (a down year for Cameron) he had an OBS of .328 and a GDP percentage of .016 (9 in 571 AB)
In 2007 Geoff Jenkins had an OBS of .319 and a GDP percentage of .022, while Johnny Estrada had a dismal .296 OBP and an even worse .036 GDP percentage.
Head to head with Jenkins, Cameron is a much better option for next season. He had a higher OBP % and lower GDP %, and is a reasonably better fielder at his position. Even if he strikes out more, he costs us less outs overall. Add in the fact that signing Cameron drastically improves not only CF, but 3B as well, and Cameron gives us an even bigger defensive upgrade. Furthermore, Jenkins is going to cost more next season.
As for Estrada, we're already getting a significant improvement in these two stats from Kendall (not very impressive .301 OBP last year, along with a .017 GDP percentage, but better than Estrada). So even if Cameron made the team hit into more double plays or get on base less, which he isn't, we still wouldn't be worse offensively than last year, while simultaneously getting a bonus in defense and salary room.
by stevie ray Braun on Jan 15, 2008 7:50 PM CST 0 recs
I still don't believe...
by CATALYST on Jan 15, 2008 7:56 PM CST 0 recs
Speaking of things being easy
by hyattff2003 on Jan 15, 2008 8:24 PM CST 0 recs
Braun Speaks on Position Switch
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/16/brewers-ryan-bruan-tired-of-talk-ready-to-play/
by ET90210 on Jan 16, 2008 8:37 AM CST 0 recs
If this were Strat-O-Matic
by Bertwerst on Jan 16, 2008 2:21 PM CST 0 recs
Melvin
With Cappy and Bush, I would like to trade on of them, and definitely get rid of Vargas (who now is being paid $3.6M for some unknown reason) for some prospects to help replenish our farm system. We only need 6 starters on the team, and all three are going to be getting a pay raise. Yost said that Parra will get every shot to make the starting rotation...and I see the rotation being:
Sheets
Suppan
Gallardo
Villanueva
Parra
Bush - long relief
This would allow us to trade two pitchers that are being paid a good amount of money for higher-tier prospects. We'd at least be getting rid of their salaries and their high pitch-counts.
by jimmyb1799 on Jan 17, 2008 8:48 PM CST 0 recs
Don't trade 2
By the way, i love Parra, but i see him going down to triple A just based on a numbers crunch. I think he'd produce better than Cappy/Vargas/Bush (maybe not cappy but who knows), but he's one of the few with options left.
Trade cappy for an up and coming catcher.
by marty22 on
Jan 18, 2008 12:26 AM CST
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Lofton
I like the Cameron move a lot, he gets a bad rap because he played in pitcher parks most of his career. Yeah he K's too much but no more than Jenkins did so it isn't like we are gaining extra K's from the move, just replacing old K's.
by Ender on Jan 19, 2008 12:31 PM CST 0 recs



















