Dayn Perry Doesn't Have What It Takes...
by Jeff Sackmann on Jan 6, 2008 4:07 PM CST
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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Print...and neither do the Cubs.
Perry wrote this article yesterday, claiming the Cubs are the better team headed into 2008. I think it's probably too early to make any such claim, especially since the Brewers are at least one (reasonably big) move away from finalizing the starting rotation and opening-day lineup.
Even once that move is made, the Cubs and Brewers will look awfully close on paper. Let's take a look at how Perry came to his half-baked conclusion.
First, he looks at the starting lineups, position-by-position. He gives the nod to the Brewers at 5 of the 8 spots--all except LF (Soriano vs. LaGrynn), catcher, and RF, which he calls a push. If I disagree at all, it's that this lame method doesn't do justice to the Cubs. Soriano is WAY better than whoever the Brewers will throw out there in LF, while Fielder and Braun aren't overwhelmingly superior to D-Lee and A-Ram. There's an awful lot of close calls here, and finishing your analysis with "5-2-1" is an easy, but misleading, way to get your column done.
I do agree up to this point, though: the Crew has the edge on offense. It isn't a big one, though.
Next, the starting rotations. Perry doesn't break it down spot by spot, instead just giving this summary:
If not, then...what? Let's take a closer look.
- Zambrano vs. Sheets: Give the edge to Carlos for durability reasons. This is a tough one to call, because, as Perry notes, is Sheets is healthy, he could very well be the better of the two.
- Gallardo vs. Hill: Another tough call: Gallardo has the potential to be more dominant, but we haven't seen him over the course of a season. Call it a push.
- Suppan vs. Lilly: A push. A Cubs fan will show up and strongly dispute this, despite not understanding the idea of FIP, in 3, 2, 1...
- Bush vs. Marquis: last year, Marquis was better; the year before, it was Bush; Bush is younger; I'd say this is a push.
- Dempster vs. Capuano: Capuano is probably the better pitcher, despite his struggles last year. If Cappy is traded and Vargas gets this spot, it's a push or a slight edge to the Cubs.
- Vargas/Villanueva/Parra vs. Marshall/???: Big edge to the Brewers. It's a safe bet that both of these teams will need 20+ starts from guys outside of their front 5, and the Brewers have at least one guy who would crack a whole lot of MLB rotations.
This is definitely not a big edge to the Cubs. Nearly everyone routinely underestimates the importance of rotation depth. Doug Melvin does not. Sheets's fragility is a problem, but I don't know that there are any teams is baseball better prepared to deal with the loss of their ace than the Brewers.
It's impossible to give a final verdict here until Melvin makes a move with the pitching staff, but if Capuano stays, I give the edge to the Crew.
Finally, the bullpen. Again, Perry sticks with a one-paragraph summary:
I know Dayn is a smart guy, but smart people write stupid paragraphs sometimes. Please, please tell me why Gagne is "less than a known quantity going forward" and Wood is "the dominating, shutdown closer they've lacked for so long." I understand that Gagne isn't a sure thing, but if we're questioning him, I'd say Wood deserves just as much skepticism. At the very least, Kerry is no guarantee for six months of health.
The Cubs did, in fact, have a more effective pen than the Crew did last year, but there are few comparisons less appropriate to the subject at hand. Marmol/Wuertz/Howry/Eyre is a nice group, sure, but the Brewers pen they'll stack up against this year is (duh!) barely related to their colleagues last year. I'd say Riske = Howry, Shouse > Eyre, Wuertz = either Torres or Mota, and Marmol is a clear win over Turnbow. If Marmol stays the closer, I'd say he's even with Gagne, and Wood is much less likely to be a clear win over Turnbow.
The wild card is dependent on the Brewers rotation--if Mota gets canned to make room for both Villanueva and Parra, that's an unusually deep pen for us. If Mota doesn't get canned, that probably means he's pitching pretty well.
All in all, I'm willing to concede a slight advantage to the Cubs bullpen, but I wouldn't put money on it.
All the other details are just quibbling. Defense is important, and the Cubs are better at it, but I think most of the offensive position comparisons stand even considering defense. (Maybe Braun loses to A-Ram, maybe Fielder vs. Lee is a push.) The bench isn't going to make much of a difference. I'm disappointed that Perry dignified managers with as many paragraphs as the starting rotation.
Long story short, these are two pretty evenly-matched teams. The Brewers have the higher upside, with the possibility of a full season from Sheets, a few promising young pitchers, and a younger offense. With that higher upside comes a little more risk, though the team is reasonably well-equipped to withstand a loss or two in the rotation.
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Dayn Perry
Unless, of course
by The Prospector on Jan 6, 2008 9:29 PM CST up reply actions
i like that currently...
we can all agree that more cubs fans have read this silly article.
He sounds understated
As to starting rotation, Big Z seems like a 50/50 prospect every time he goes out. Lilly pretty good. Marshall seems dependent on that high fastball. Will the league and especially the Brewcrew learn to lay off that thing? Marquis not very good, but the kind of guy the Brewers struggle against. Who was their fifth? That sure doesn't sound so awesome to me.
When I think of the bullpen, it doesn't seem like a lot of talent, but sweet Lou is pretty good at handling it. Maybe I just like him because he reminds me of some guy who would be drinking at the old National Liquor Bar. Marmol was exceptional, but he looked totally shocked when he got hit hard - I mean shocked. Will he melt down if some of those sliders start getting golfed out?
And Soriano doesn't seem like he can be counted on for a full season. He's got that great quick, accurate throw to get runners but he ain't much at fielding IIRC.
Fukudome better do well or he'll rue the day he signed a four year contract. I'm sure the drunk fans in right field will learn how to refer to inadequate male parts in Japanese if he struggles and the media will go on and on. They're wailing at the "bust" Ben Wallace for the Bulls.
you beat me to it
Gagne might wind up as "effective"
by stevie ray Braun on Jan 7, 2008 10:37 PM CST reply actions
Sorry I'm late.
Lilly, xFIP & FIP: 4.39, 4.16
Suppan, xFIP & FIP: 4.85, 4.30
So, even if we do understand DIPS, a case could be made that Lilly is better than Suppan. It's not even hard. Okay, but not by a whole heck of a lot. But Suppan is still a low-strikeout, groundball pitcher in front of a pretty miserable infield defense. Looking at TotalZone (I happened to have it open anyway), the only Brewers infielder above average is JJ Hardy, at +3 runs. Everyone else is either dead last or one above it.
As far as rotation depth - eh. The Cubs have Sean Gallagher and Kevin Hart on the back end, both with good track records at AAA last season. Either of them have at least the potential to match up with Villanueva or Vargas. Whether or not the Cubs organization will give them sufficent chances or not is really the question.
One season for the FIP thing?
I'm guessing that the DH and the AL...
I'm just amazed
by hyattff2003 on Jan 9, 2008 3:45 PM CST up reply actions
Hyattff
by newguy @ Brew Crew Ball on Jan 10, 2008 10:04 AM CST up reply actions
Always with the stats...
Good job at getting that dig in on defensive statistics. I can't believe how many people believe attempts at estimates, which is what you are using, are akin to a DNA match. The Cubs aren't without their defensive problems. Soriano, Theriot, your 2nd base crew or the mystery players who will play when Soriano, Lee and Ramirez are injured.
And the Cubs have potential all over the place, from Pie to Soto to your BP prospects and Marmol. Hell, even Fukudome is "potential." What that is, is a lot of "ifs." If Zell or whoever is doing the Gordon Gekko routine on the Cubs succeeds, it could mean the end to Yankee payrolls. If...
Ummm
Either of them have at least the potential to match up with Villanueva or Vargas.
If the Cubs could put Vargas as their #5, I think they Wood. As for Villanueva, I would be surprised if he didn't outpitch any Cub starter not named Zambrano. OK, maybe Hill. Maybe. But I think he'll push Suppan down to our #4 starter by the break.
I think that'll be asking a lot of your AAA guys. Heck, WE have AAA guys with good stats...
Hey now.
I don't know about Vargas - his last ERA+ over 100 was in 2003, coincidentally his first and only such year. I wouldn't even call him an innings eater type. Granted in this case he's matching up with Dempster (I guess - the Cubs have backed off on some of those comments, saying he'll get a chance to compete with Hart/Gallagher/Marshall for the 5 spot, and go back to the bullpen if he can't outpitch them).
thoughts
Not so sure about this...
People tend to forget how dominatant Hill was in the minors. Gallardo had better overall minor league numbers than Hill, but not significantly so, especially if you only look at Hill's last few years in the minors.
I also think that you overvalue the Brewers bullpen and undervalue the Cubs bullpen, as well as undervaluing Marshall. Don't forget that Eyre pitched very, very well in the second half of the season. He is a bit of an unknown, but it wouldn't surprise me if he pitches as well, if not better, than Shouse.
But I do think you are right... the teams are relatively even.
by cubfan on Jan 8, 2008 9:39 AM CST reply actions
I think it's a lot safer to say that Eyre...
As for Gallardo - he pitched 187.6 innings last year, well over his previous career high of 155. The Brewers are going to have to be careful about not overextending that young arm of his. Hill, on the other hand, has hit just under 200 innings the past two seasons, and is actually six years older than Gallardo, which means his shoulder should be a bit better developed to handle a full season. That means a lot of different things long term. But for next season I think you can reasonably expect more quality innings out of Hill, while Gallardo is probably going to hit a wall at some point.
A 37 inning increase from one year to the next
The damage, if there is any, is done. At 187 innings pitched last year, he's in position to hit 200 innings without much more stretching. That's all they'll expect from him anyway. There's still the risk of catastrophic injury, as there is with any pitcher, but as far as the over-use type of health problems I think he'll be fine if he gets out of spring training with a live arm.
Hitting the wall at some point next year is a possibility and I think he had a couple of terrible outings when he neared the 150 inning mark last season, but he collected himself and did well towards the end of the season. I don't see any reason to suspect he would "hit the wall" before 200 innings, when it becomes a possibility with virtually any pitcher.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 8, 2008 1:17 PM CST up reply actions
Oops. 32 innings.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 8, 2008 5:39 PM CST up reply actions
Signings
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/07/brewers-sign-five-players-to-major-league-deals/
more upside
With that said, Lilly and Marquis performed much better than I thought they would. Marmol and Wood will be tough at the end of the bullpen, as well.
It will not be fun to play the Cubbies, but they have their weak links. We have ours too, obviously, but neither teams are done making moves. Sounds like the Cubs are on Brian Roberts' trail...that wouldn't be the best news for the Crew...
Marcels, Suppan v. Lilly
. Year Rel. ERA IP Hit K BB HR WHIP K/G BB/G HR/G
Lilly 2008 0.81 4.20 182.0 173 151 66 25 1.31 7.5 3.3 1.20
Suppan 2008 0.82 4.62 182.0 206 107 64 19 1.48 5.3 3.2 0.90
It's funny, but i think if i'm the cubs i'd rather have suppan for the HR & GB rates, and if I'm the brewers i'd rather have Lilly for the K rates.
For me, comparing the rotations, while the brewers are far deeper, it's the top of the rotation where the biggest difference is made. I'd take 2008 sheets, and 2008 gallardo both over zambrano. i'd go like this:
- sheets
- gallardo
- zambrano
- hill
- lilly
- suppan
- bush
- capuano
- villanueva
- vargas
- marquis
- parra
- gallagher
- marshall
- dempster
- glendon rusch
- hart
i think villanueva is the wildcard who can put the brewers over the top, and i think the cream city crusher rotation is underrated because people don't realize yet that gallardo is an ace.
also, bold prediction here, i think sheets and gallardo both pitch more innings than zambrano this year. it's a pretty rare feat to pitch 200+ innings in 5 straight years, and his mechanics were all over the place last year, not only start to start, but pitch to pitch. of course, if he's healthy, he's primed to post his career season, he is still only 27.
zips ERA projections
gallardo 3.66
sheets 3.72
parra 4.31
villanueva 4.46
capuano 4.48
bush 4.64
suppan 4.76
vargas 4.99
zambrano 3.70
hill 3.88
lilly 4.24
gallagher 4.91
marshall 4.97
marquis 5.06
veal 5.72
hart 5.73
Rich Hill?
by stevie ray Braun on Jan 9, 2008 12:35 PM CST reply actions
consistent
also, the year before the cubs wouldn't let him pitch up in the zone, which is the bread to his curveball butter.
he's got more upside than lilly and suppan. i think he'll have a better '08 than both of them.
Mike Cameron
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/09/brewers-interested-in-mike-cameron/
Cameron
Not to mention Cameron is suspended for the first 25 games of the season. Here's to hoping they sign Lofton over Cameron!
more free agent news
Green, Wilkerson, Feliz????
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/10/more-brewers-rumors-add-green-wilkerson-feliz-to-of3b-mix/
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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