Community Projections 2008: JJ Hardy

by jacob on Feb 26, 2008 6:54 PM CST in Statistical Analysis Comment 17 comments

James Jerry Hardy is 25 years old and entering his 4th season in the major leagues. He's in his first year of arbitration and went to the wire before settling near the midpoint at 2.65 million dollars for one year. An all-star last year, Hardy was actually leading the NL in homeruns at points in the first half. Seriously, that really happened. April and May last year were similar to his September of 2005. He slugged over .520 in all three of those months. A line drive pull hitter who works the count well we haven't really seen him put it all together for more than a third of a season. On June 1st last year Hardy was looking at his line in the newspaper and it sparkled back .304/.350/.567. From that day to the end of the season he cooled to post a .277/.323/.463 that line still bolstered his career stats to .263/.321/.429

Community Projection
Use any methods you want to make projections. Please submit them in the comments to the appropriate projection thread as a single line of comma separated values. For the hitters we'd like to project pa,ab,h,1b,2b,3b,hr,bb,avg,obp,slg,ops.

For Example:
player,pa,ab,h,1b,2b,3b,hr,bb,avg,obp,slg,ops
NLAverageHitter,650,585,153,102,31,3,17,65,.262,.335,.412,.747

I've created a player projection tool to help simplify the process. Fill out the values for Plate Appearances (pa), Singles (1b), Doubles (2b), Triples (3b), Homeruns (hr), and Walks (bb) and the rest will be calculated for you and outputted below in a comma separated string perfectly formatted for submission. Copy and paste that line to a comment. You are, of course, free and welcome to submit any projections you want in any format and we'll try to accommodate.

Voting is still open for Bill Hall and JJ Hardy and both could use a little love!

Results are posted for Jason Kendall, Prince Fielder, and Rickie Weeks.

0 recs | Comment 17 comments

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Comments

JimJerry

I think his slugging percentage will drop because some of his homers will turn into doubles, but he'll still be an about average shortstop. He'll probably have a few at-bats stolen by Craig Counsell because Ned will want to "keep everyone fresh" and (hopefully) won't displace Hall or Weeks.

Hardy,517,476,128,83,27,1,17,41,0.269,0.327,0.437,0.764

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 26, 2008 8:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

HARDY

Hardy,585,540,153,101,34,2,16,45,0.283,0.338,0.443,0.781

Homers will definitely drop because pitchers won't challenge him inside as much. His average should be better than what we've seen so far- his BABIB was around .275 last year and that will probably go up a bit.

by Jordan M on Feb 26, 2008 8:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

pretty good for a slick-fielding shortstop!

Hardy,555,507,147,94,32,0,21,48,0.290,0.351,0.477,0.828

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 27, 2008 7:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I wonder

(breaking the projection stream we have going)

What would JJ be worth on the free agent market now?

Or, more to the point, what would our payroll be if we were paying market value for our players? Maybe double our current payroll?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 27, 2008 8:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'd say more than double

If you are strictly talking market value, Prince and Braun would be making huge amounts of money. Probably both around 20 million a year. Corey Hart would probably be around 10 million.

by brewfan2 on Feb 27, 2008 8:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

Teams are pretty profligate with money, but I doubt they'd spend $20 million per year on a guy with a little less than one full season under his belt, no matter how good it was.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 27, 2008 8:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Good Point

I just believe that the market value for him would be huge. It wouldn't be like a pitcher who is much more apt to get injured (knock on wood).

by brewfan2 on Feb 27, 2008 11:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i think you're right

if braun were a free agent, i would be surprised if someone didn't offer him 7/140 or something along those lines.

yes he has less than a season under his belt, but couple that success with his success in the minors and while it is a gamble it's one that a team with a large payroll will take. you should, as a franchise, theoretically be able to leverage that lack of experience against the player, too, and still get a bargain.

i don't know, i like the current system, but it's unfortunate we don't get a chance to see how market value changes for experience since there are very few free agents without 6 years in the majors.

However, even in the current system there is a reason we don't see too many long term deals like Tulowitzki's. I guess it's hard to say from our perspective whether that is the franchise taking advantage of the risk protection inherent in the system, or player's holding out and looking to break the bank. If tulo continues to play at current and projected levels, he signed a horrible deal for him market-wise. just horrible. But putting your name to a contract that guarantees you are going to be a multi-millionaire when you are currently not one, is worth, for some, the difference in perceived value and market value.

This is the relative value of dollars.

Interestingly, this concept is exactly something that those who post tax tables and complain about high tax rates on the uber-wealthy don't understand. The 'casual economists' i guess you'd call them.

Like you say brewfan2, pitchers would be extremely interesting, a whole other story entirely. What would gallardo or liriano or even ian kennedy fetch right now?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 27, 2008 12:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Whoops!

Didn't mean to hijack the thread. I'll post a diary.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 27, 2008 1:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

free agent

6.625 million/year.

Because he's still in the improvement phase of his career, if he were a free agent, you'd offer him something like 3/21.

i think yes, our payroll would be double. Prince and Braun are each worth 20-25 times what they will be making this year, Gallardo and Hart and Weeks 10-15 times...

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 27, 2008 9:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

so, RJ...

got a projection for hardy?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 27, 2008 9:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hardy has little power on anything

that is not pitched inside. The league figured that out last year. If he learns to better hit outside pitches he'll be fine, and I think he has the potential to. If not, well, at least he's pretty.

by Braunstalker on Feb 27, 2008 9:54 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

if not

a little indiscriminate in whom he warms up with.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 27, 2008 10:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't want to enter a subject

Hardy,590,541,147,97,32,2,16,44,0.272,0.332,0.427,0.759

Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.

by shooty babitt on Feb 27, 2008 6:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

hardy

Hardy,580,537,146,100,28,1,17,43,0.272,0.326,0.423,0.749

by MadJimiBrewha on Feb 27, 2008 7:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

JJ

Hardy,575,517,140,91,25,1,23,58,0.271,0.344,0.456,0.800

Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."

by DaleCoop14 on Mar 3, 2008 9:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

hardy

Hardy,578,534,145,94,21,5,25,44,0.272,0.327,0.470,0.797

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Mar 4, 2008 10:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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