A Rare Saturday Frosty Mug

by KLSnow on Mar 22, 2008 9:02 AM CDT in News

So this is the 5th of 7 straight weekends on the road for me, but I'm home on Saturday morning, so here's a Frosty Mug:

The Yahoo Sports Blog rated Maryvale as their favorite spring training location yesterday, and have a wealth of pictures and park-related notes to go with it.

While they were there, they also traded vegetarian recipes with Prince Fielder.

Vinny Rottino: #1 catcher someday? It's an interesting possibility.

On the field, the day in pictures:

Fist pounds all around!
These are the kinds of defensive pictures I like to see.

The Baseball Analysts decided to ignore all the other bloggers in the NL Central and just invite a Cubs fan to help them preview the division. Shockingly, they predict a Cub win.

Manny Parra made Jayson Stark's list of eye-popping spring players.

Alphabetical injury reports in one line or less:

Reds P Matt Belisle has tightness in his forearm and his return date is unknown.
Adrian Beltre has been playing with a torn ligament in his thumb since June, and will continue to do so.
Mets C Robinson Cancel will have knee surgery, leaving the door open for Raul Casanova to make the Mets.
Marlins OF Jeremy Hermida may miss opening day with a sore hamstring.
Kevin Millar needed stitches on his pinky finger after being hit by a pitch, but should be ok.
John Smoltz has been scratched from his start with shoulder soreness.

A's Nation wants to know who's staying up to watch the A's open their season in Japan (at 3 AM west coast time). How many of you would stay up for it? That's the new poll on your right.

Bugs and Cranks is running a season preview WhatIfSports league, and the Brewers are a division leader...in the AL. There's not many '08 Brewers on their roster.

Lou Pinella isn't done trying out crazy ideas for the Cubs lineup, although batting Fukudome leadoff could work.

Two interesting stat notes this morning:

Beyond the Box Score looks at TB/IP as an alternative to WHIP, and finds some interesting results.
New favorite read Saber-Scouting looks at AB/BB and their relationship to league difficulty.

Finally, DRaysBay has a Matt Garza wallpaper. I'm not particularly interested in that, but if someone made a Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Carlos Villanueva, or even a Seth McClung, I'd certainly use it. Hint, hint.

Drink up. I'm off for Easter but back Monday.

0 recs | Comment 18 comments

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Baseball Analysts Preview

They write off the Brewer bullpen by saying that Gagne isn't that good anymore and Turnbow isn't reliable. They didn't even mention the fact that Riske and Torres are also available.

They also spelled "offense" o-f-f-e-n-c-e and "defense" d-e-f-e-n-c-e multiple times. Not that it matters, but it is pretty funny when they make mistakes like that.

by jihad on Mar 22, 2008 10:14 AM CDT 0 recs

Re: Baseball Analysts Preview

The Cubs blogger also stated that the Cubs would win barring a "miracle year by Milwaukee." So, essentially, the Cubs are a lock to win the division. I mean, they aren't even far and away the best team- they could very well be the best team, but it's damn close. It's not going to take a miracle to win the division.

I suppose that if we win, he can console himself at night that it wasn't the Cubs fault, but that Milwaukee miraculously won the division. Preemptively making excuses, I guess.

Come check out the Cardinal and White Chronicles for the latest in Badgers sports news!

by The Prospector on Mar 22, 2008 10:52 AM CDT up 0 recs

That miracle remark

struck me as well. Its one thing to say I think my team is better and will win but to say that it would take a miracle?

Then later he says this:

The Brewers can hit. And hit, and hit, and hit.

by ol Pete on Mar 22, 2008 11:42 AM CDT up 0 recs

standard procedure

Always assume bad things about teams and guys you don't like or are your competition and assume good things about the reverse.

I wish I saved every gloomy and dire prediction about Kendall. Or Cameron. Or the prediction that Fielder, Braun and Hart will regress based on the logic that they were really good.

And maybe their copy editor is a Brit? Oh wait, there is no copy editor. Could their spellcheck allow British spelling?

by ol Pete on Mar 22, 2008 11:48 AM CDT up 0 recs

One guy was from Canada

He mentioned watching Glaus hobble around a lot the past couple years, so he must be from around Toronto. That's how offense and defense are spelled in Canada.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Mar 22, 2008 1:55 PM CDT up 0 recs

I thought I was missing something

Excellent detective work. It seemed strange that you could spell those words wrong that many times in one article.

by jihad on Mar 22, 2008 3:05 PM CDT up 0 recs

More of the Baseball Analysts Preview

Al (Cubs blogger) also mentions that the Cubs starting rotation ("one of the better in the ones in the National League" last year) is coming back nearly intact, and they even have a rare problem; too much pitching, with Jon Lieber, Ryan Dempster, and Jason Marquis battling for two spots. What he forgot to mention is that just because you have extra pitchers, that doesn't mean good news. Jon Lieber is mediocre, Marquis kinda sucks, and Dempster really sucks.

Come check out the Cardinal and White Chronicles for the latest in Badgers sports news!

by The Prospector on Mar 22, 2008 10:56 AM CDT 0 recs

Jeez- more Baseball Analysts Shenanigans

One of the guys also said this: "Hands down, Chicago has the best and deepest starting rotation in the division... if not the league." They mention Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marshall, and Gallagher as the best I guess. Smartly, they leave off the Lieber/Marquis/Dempster triumvirate, because then people might actually think "Wait a minute- that's not that great of a rotation." I can't see how Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marshall, Gallagher, Lieber, Marquis, Dempster makes them deeper than Sheets, Suppan, Gallardo, Bush, Vargas, Capuano, Parra, Villanueva. I'd take our guys any day.

Come check out the Cardinal and White Chronicles for the latest in Badgers sports news!

by The Prospector on Mar 22, 2008 11:02 AM CDT 0 recs

Last Baseball Analysts post for me

Sully seems to be the voice of reason over there, mentioning the Brewers SP depth, as well as being the only one who picks the Brewers over the Cubs. Good to see there is some sanity left in this world.

Come check out the Cardinal and White Chronicles for the latest in Badgers sports news!

by The Prospector on Mar 22, 2008 11:08 AM CDT 0 recs

Ok, one more

I also find it kind of funny that they're talking sabermetrics stats (like ERA+, BABIP, etc.) with Al, who is a professed non-believer of those stats:

"What you won't find here are Win Shares, VORPs, PECOTAs (and all I can think of when I see that is Bill Pecota, the former infielder for the Mets, Braves and Royals) -- if you want those, there are plenty of places in the Cubs Blog Army, conveniently located on the right sidebar, to find those. Not to say that I won't quote stats when I feel the urge to, because statistics are part of baseball history and lore, and I do have my complete collection of Baseball Registers and Baseball Encyclopedias and Total Baseballs to pore through.

But as I have said often in my other space, there are things that win baseball games that cannot be measured on a stat sheet."

(I don't know how to do the quote in a box thing on here).

Must be awkward for Al to be agreeing that his team is better based on stats he thinks have little to no value.

Come check out the Cardinal and White Chronicles for the latest in Badgers sports news!

by The Prospector on Mar 22, 2008 11:14 AM CDT up 0 recs

Craig Counsell

I wonder what the team BA will be this year. I know ST can provide a distorted performance, but it seems just about everybody is whacking the ball around. Counsell, Munson, Cameron, Kendall, Gwynn as well as the usual suspects.

But check out the picture in this quickie on the Gritster's change in stance:

http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2008/03/21/here-lies-craig-counsells-stance/

by ol Pete on Mar 22, 2008 11:55 AM CDT 0 recs

Didn't notice this before

Robinson Cancel??? I wasn't aware he was still in any team's system, much less that he had a good chance to make an Opening Day roster.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Mar 22, 2008 5:47 PM CDT 0 recs

Seth McClung background

My amazing photoshop skills were put to the test.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v430/Col_Hogan/SethKlingonMcCulng.jpg

by Trent Durrington on Mar 23, 2008 11:26 AM CDT 0 recs

Regarding tbe BTB Post

Why can't we do something similar for hitting stats? Frankly, OBP makes a Homer worth the same as a walk, and SLG doesn't take into account walks. It's kinda frustrating in all honesty to get a true value of a plate appearance.

I saw the overcrowded marketplase that is the brewers blogs and said, "Me Too!" The Chubber Lang Report

by hyattff2003 on Mar 23, 2008 1:53 PM CDT 0 recs

When I've got a moment...

Maybe we can have a deeper conversation about it...but in the short term, here's a stat I developed as an independent study in college to deal with a similar issue: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/the_snow_index_project_part_1/

by KLSnow on Mar 23, 2008 4:33 PM CDT up 0 recs

You can use OPS

then you get the best of slugging and obp

by brewfan2 on Mar 23, 2008 7:27 PM CDT up 0 recs

perhaps

but it's the adding of the fractions that bothers me. OBP is H+BB/AB+BB (in simple form) where SLG is TB/AB. The denominator is figuring AB twice, and is a little... I dont know... arbitrary for me. I would rather get something to the effect of TB/AB+BB in simple terms, and then figure SB, HBP, CS, and GIDP figured in there as well.

I saw the overcrowded marketplase that is the brewers blogs and said, "Me Too!" The Chubber Lang Report

by hyattff2003 on Mar 24, 2008 11:47 AM CDT up 0 recs

insightful.

nice catch on mixing denominators. if you've not read this dan fox article, run estimation for the masses, i recommend it.

Critics of OPS generally concede that while OPS is simple, it adds two values with different denominators and therefore is mixing apples and oranges. It turns out that this mixing is what allows OPS to correlate so well with run production. Some also argue that OPS, being a sum of two values, actually conceals information. I would counter that while I can learn more about a player from his batting line in the form .280/.305/.425 than I can from the number 730, our classifying and pattern-seeking species loves to reduce what we analyze to solitary numbers, and OPS does a wonderful job of representing a player's offensive contribution while remaining simple to calculate.

what i think you are looking for is linear weights, where each batting event has its own value (in terms of runs) and they are added together.

For a "simple" version of linear weights look at The Book's wOBA.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Mar 24, 2008 4:59 PM CDT up 0 recs

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