Tag: lineup optimization

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Production By Batting Order Position on the 2010 Royals

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The 2010 Royals hit their best hitter #3 most of the time, which is right in line with standard baseball thinking. Other than that... Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS ▾ ...

Optimizing the Phillies and Yankees Lineups

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I wrote two posts yesterday at ESPN's saber blog, optimizing the batting orders of the best AL and NL lineups according to The Book's rules of thumb. Here's what they looked like, against right-handers: Yankees 1. Nick Johnson (L) 2. Mark Teixeira (S) 3. Curtis Granderson (L) 4. Alex Rodriguez (R) 5. Robinson Cano (L) 6. Derek Jeter (R) 7. Nick Swisher (S) 8. Jorge Posada (S) 9. Brett Gardner (L) Phillies 1. Victorino (S) 2. Utley (L) 3. Werth (R) 4. Howard (L) 5. Ibanez (L) 6. Rollins (S) 7. Polanco (R) 8. Pitcher 9. Ruiz (R) Given that these posts were 500 words each, lots information was simplified or skipped altogether. The comments section for each had some good (and not so good*) discussion. The more interesting things to consider are: - Nick Johnson's platoon split. He's had a lower AVG against righties than lefties over his career, making his OBP about 30 points lower against them (with a higher SLG). But it's only 800 career PAs, and I believe its been shown you need at least 2000 PAs (3000?) to regress 50% towards the typical player's platoon split. So, given Johnson's ZiPS projection of .275/.418/.433, what would we expect his line against righties to look like? - I've got Jeter in the sixth spot and Johnson's leading off (Zomg crazy!) Jeter's one advantage is baserunning. How much of an advantage is that, and how many runs would the Yankees gain just due to baserunning by flipping that order? - The Book's heuristics are certainly better than the traditional heuristics, but lineups are so complicated that we really need a simulator to get results we're confident in. Anyone want to take a stab? Via Dan Szymborski, this one appears to be pretty good: lineupsimulator.com. - For the Phillies, might there be a better leadoff option than Shane Victorino, who is, at best, the fifth best hitter on the team. Other options present the challenge of finding appropriate hitters for spots 2-5 without putting three lefties in a row. Ideas? Other thoughts? * The not so good: "Numbers can do a lot - but they can’t think. So people who rely on stats ... aren’t thinking."

Bat Pujols Second

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Shameless self share. Lineup optimization by The Book, or at least my attempt at it.

Thinking About My Lack of Thoughts Regarding the Eric Wedge Firing

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The Cleveland Indians announced that Eric Wedge and his coaching staff will not return next season. It's an understandable move, but let's not fool ourselves into thinking that Wedge was one of the...

Lousy Lineup Optimizer: San Francisco Giants

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Yet another installment in an intermittent series of articles optimizing the batting orders or teams with bad offenses. This article takes on the revamped lineup of the San Francisco Giants as they...

Lousy Lineup Optimizer: Pittsburgh Pirates

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An optimized batting order only gains a team 5 to 15 runs a year, but to buy those marginal runs on the current free agent market usually costs a team from two to seven million dollars. This is the...

Optimizing the Padres' Batting Order

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I didn't see if this had been done on this blog, but in any case, I'm doing an occasional series at Driveline Mechanics using the principles from The Book optimizing the batting orders of some teams whose offenses at least project to be... less than great. This iteration discusses the Padres. I think some might find it interesting. Or irritating. Or something.

Lousy Lineup Optimizer: San Diego Padres

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An optimized batting order only gains a team 5 to 15 runs a year, but to buy those marginal runs on the current free agent market usually costs a team from two to seven million dollars. This is the...

Lousy Lineup Optimizer: Kansas City Royals

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An optimized batting order only gains a team 5 to 15 runs a year, but the teams with some the worst offenses in baseball need all the help the can get. This is the first post in an occasional...

Lineup Optimization Hub

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Looking for the optimal lineup for your favorite team? Here are links to all the analysis you could want.

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