war Stories - Brew Crew Ball
Day After Thanksgiving 40-Man WAR
What if tomorrow were Opening Day? Jose Reyes wouldn't be leading off, R.A. Dickey would probably be the starting pitcher (we'll see about Johan Santana) and one of Manny Acosta or Bobby Parnell would be closer. Not even the most sunny "The Mets have a chance this year!" blog post could be terribly...
WAR (huh) What Is It Good For? Player Valuation.
The jokes they are aplenty. "Player Valuation" actually fits the rhythm of the song, too. The basic idea of WAR is to combine batter offensive run production and defensive run prevention and roll them into one complete number based on what a AAA player, a "replacement player", would provide. Our...
February WAR Projection
Let's get right to it -- here is a WAR projection, using the projected roster posted this past weekend as a starting point: Depending on the replacement level win total used, this looks like a 79-85 win team. It's slightly more optimistic than Vegas and probably pessimistic compared to those...
Lance vs. Larry: Imitation is Flattery
Since crafting my previous graphic analyzing how Lance Berkman's performance at Minute Maid Park would translate to Busch Stadium, I've had a pesky thought stuck in my mind: is Lance Berkman the next Larry Walker? Check out the graphic below, and read the analysis after the jump. wWAR...
The Johnny Cueto Contract
The Reds reportedly have agreed to a four year, $27 million contract with 24-year old RHP Johnny Cueto. This would be the third major extension the club has offered a young player, and the fourth multi-year extension of the offseason. Cueto was signed as an international free agent in 2004, and...
The Joey Votto Extension
Today Joey Votto signed an extension like we all hoped he would. Unfortunately, it was only for three years. I think this extension is fascinating in terms of the motivations driving each party. From Votto's perspective, he was a property of the Reds for three more years no matter what. Signing...
WAR on the Move: Gaining and Losing Via Trade
Please see a note on methodology and opportunities for improvement after the jump. - ed. For some reason, I decided to spend the last 10 days digging through MORE trade data. I think it's some sick, self-destructive disorder I have, because it was in no way fun. But, what I ended up with is a...
The Bruce contract extension: another look
Now that we've worked up the Arroyo extension, let's turn our attention to Jay Bruce's new...
Food Coma 40-Man WAR
Alternative title: How many wins in 2011 if Moneyball East stands pat? Using only the current 40-man roster, I put together my preferred 2011 Mets team and estimated their wins above replacement (WAR). Non-40's, such as Mike O'Connor, are ignored. Also, John Maine will likely be non-tendered, so he...
Tuesday Rockpile: The Not-All-Star Team
WE HAVE OVERFILLED THE ROCKPILE AGAIN SO GO DISCUSS THINGS HERE Oh, look, I'm doing a Rockpile! Andrew T. Fisher is having internet issues, but the other Andrew gave me an suggestion for this Rockpile: the Not-All-Star Team. I'll just be making one team, and this is based on WAR. You'll find it...
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