So maybe you're concerned about the Rays holding onto their division lead now that the trade deadline has come and gone. Personally I'm not because for one thing I don't consider the situation to be very dire anyway, I don't think that the acquisitions of Rodriguez and Bay, which are upgrades over the players they replaced, are going to make a significant difference over just two months of the season. I also know for a fact that the Rays recent troubles with RISP hitting won't continue because it's basically impossible for that to happen, it would defy any sort of logic and intelligent thought if it did so. There are also upgrades available in the minors, such as Salas or Price as relievers or Ruggiano to bat against lefties. The Rays remain just as good, if not better, of a team going forward as they were the first four months of the season.

The other reason I'm confident in the Rays having a good shot at winning the division is that a three and four game lead with two months to go is larger than you may think.

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The stadium news coming down today seems to be the logical course of action. This has seemed rushed from the beginning, trying to go from intial plans and presentation to having everything basically finalized within a year. That's a pretty short time considering the various approvals needed to go forward with it and the brief timeframe plays into the hands of groups like POWW using fear-mongering tactics to sway people to their side while presenting little in the way of actual facts. I'm also pleased on a personal level because this means that the heated stadium discussions will probably die down soon and this will cease to be a distraction to the great year the team on the field is having. It would be great to just enjoy the success the organization is finally having and not have anything else going on but instead we have this non-baseball stuff demanding lots of news time as well.

What I mainly wanted to bring up today though was the seemingly widespread perception (at least among Tampa residents) that having the stadium on that side of the bay would greatly increase attendance and that the stadium's current location is the reason the turnout is disappointing to some people (it isn't to me but that's a separate issue altogether). This is, in my opinion, bunk.

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During the previous homestand I made an entry about my views on the Rays as contenders. My conclusion was that if they continued to play well on that homestand (which they certainly did, going 8-2 overall) and had a decent road trip in three tough places to go then I'd let all my reservations go. They went 3-6 on that road trip including another sweep in Boston, falling short of my stated goal of 4-5. With their good performance in Texas and maybe only losing the finale in Anaheim because of abysmally incompetent umpiring at a crucial time in the game I felt a little better about the rest of the season but I feel that they haven't completely gotten over the hump yet because of one potentially damaging weakness.

That weakness is 3/5 of the rotation. Kazmir and Shields are fine, if they're healthy nobody should worry about them at all. In fact they're a great 1-2 punch to throw at teams (personally I couldn't care less about Shields' road performance this year, HFA has been somewhat out of whack so far anyway and he was fine on the road in 2007, there's nothing to worry about in my eyes). The problem is with the other guys.

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I'm generally what you would consider an optimist on the Rays, often expecting good things to come about even when I might be reaching a bit because I want it to be true. I also like to think of myself as a realist though and therefore before the season started I said that the Rays would be at or above .500 but I thought any playoff talk was stretching reality a bit. I maintained that all spring and so far throughout this season, saying that I liked what was happening but the playoffs were something for next season. In my opinion that's the right course to take, usually when people make conclusions based on a month or two of play that contradict what they believed before the season they end up being wrong, a single month of baseball can be more than enough to return things to their proper place, hopes to be dashed, or disappointment turned into satisfaction.

However, after 49 games the Rays are tied for the second best record in baseball and that can't be ignored. I was interested when they swept Boston but didn't change my opinion. Once they swept the Angels I had to admit that I was wavering on my previous stance. Now they went .500 on a rather tough road trip and really could have won four or five of those games instead of just three, the two losses in St. Louis were rather unusual for this season with them losing the games themselves instead of simply getting beat by a team that played better than them that day. Now, after a brutal series finale in Oakland, they've had two convincing wins over Baltimore with a good chance at the sweep this afternoon. Evidence in their favor just keeps mounting.

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That would boost his slugging percentage over .400 and put him in the not particularly prestigious but at least interesting .200/.300/.400 club with Longoria, Pena, and Gomes. The requirements for this club are of course having a batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage at or above those numbers but not much higher. They stand at this after today's game:

Pena: .209/.313/.403
Longoria: .211/.311/.400
Gomes: .209/.316/.418
Gross: .205/.319/.385

This isn't just statistical trivia though, it's a good jumping off point for analysis. Setting aside the low batting averages for a moment all four of these players have two important things you want from a hitter: around 100 points difference between his BA and OBP (IsoD) and around 200 points between BA and SLG (IsoP). With Pena, a slugging first baseman, you'd like to see more like .250 or higher in IsoP but .200 is a good start at least and along with the high IsoD provides a good platform for valuable production even if the power didn't go up (I'm positive it will but that's not relevant at the moment). That means that all four of these players have an obvious ability to contribute to the team more if only those BAs would stop hanging out with Mario Mendoza.

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While having more pitchers available than you can fit into the rotation is usually considered a good problem to have it is still a problem that must be sorted out. The first step was taken yesterday with Jeff Niemann being returned to the Durham Bulls; although it was a shame that he only was able to make two starts he was the obvious choice due to him originally being up to replace Garza and also because the other three pitchers in contention for the rotation spots were ahead of him in line for evaluation. Another good start might have forced the Rays to make a harder decision but that just wasn't to be; he may have been going back down anyway no matter what he did.

That leaves the trio of Jason Hammel, Edwin Jackson, and Andy Sonnanstine left for the two spots that will remain available after Kazmir's return at the beginning of May. Before I say anything else I should make my potential bias clear though I will do my best to be utterly objective in my analysis: I'm no Jackson fan, I didn't like him starting last season in the rotation, didn't like him staying there all year, and am not exactly thrilled that he's still in there. He hasn't been worth anything in the past four seasons at any level and in my opinion isn't close to suddenly becoming good. I am a Sonnanstine believer, I think that given time in the majors to adjust he can be an averagish innings muncher though his upside is limited due to his low velocity. As for Hammel, I've believed in him for years and haven't stopped believing in him at any point, though I'm one of a very small minority that felt good about him being in the rotation to start the season.

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