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Travis G

Apr 12, 2008 Jan 07, 2009 114 483

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Ex-Yankees stay in AL

Jason Giambi signed a one-year deal with his old team, the Oakland A's, for $5.25 million with a team option for 2010.

- Carl Pavano signed a $1.5 million, one-year deal with Cleveland. It could reach $6.8 million if he reaches certain performance bonuses (like make 18 starts).

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How good is Teixeira's defense?

During a recent conversation with my (huge Yankee fan) father-in-law, I extolled the virtues of Mark Teixeria, especially his defense, citing how poor Jason Giambi was in that area. Not only will Tex hit about as well as Giambi, but he'll make more plays in the field as well. I said Tex is probably our best defensive first-baseman since at least Tino Martinez (not counting the stop-gaps of Travis Lee, Tony Clark and Doug Mxyzptlk). As it turns out, he's our best since Don Mattingly.

The only defensive stats that go back to the 1980s are Range Factor and FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), courtesy of BRef and BPro.

Mattingly saved 33 runs above average during his career, with his top year being 1992 (8 FRAA).

Tex is four runs below average for his career, but he may have turned a corner in 2008, saving nine runs, which is more than Donnie ever did.

Range Factor basically tells us the number of plays (e.g. outs) made per game.

Jason Giambi was not horrible, just below average. With the Yankees, he's been anywhere from average to safely below. For his total career he's been an average defensive first-baseman (mostly due to how good he was in Oakland).

Tino Martinez was well above average for most of his Yankee tenure, usually making 2-3 more plays per game than an average first-baseman. For his major league career, he made about 1 1/2 more plays per game.

Mark Teixeira has ranged from above average to phenomenal in his career (especially in 2006, when he made about 3 1/2 more plays per game than average). Overall, he makes about two more plays per game than average.

Donnie never had a single defensive year as great as Tex's '06, but was consistently well above average for all 14 seasons of his career. For his career, he made about two more plays per game than average.

The newest statistical measurements also shine brightly on Teixeira's defense. UZR (ultimate zone rating) had Tex as the third best defensive first-baseman in MLB in 2008, behind only Lance Berkman and Albert Pujols.

As Jeter and Arod age, and their defense suffers, the acquisition of Teixeira will alleviate a significant portion of their declining defensive abilities.

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Phil Hughes thoughts

I've been a fan of Hughes' since seeing some youtube video of him in the summer of 2006. That was his best year as a pro: he quickly ascended to Trenton and destroyed the Eastern League as a 20-year-old. He was better than Clay Buchholz at a younger age. He's given up just eight home-runs in 310 minor league innings with a .92 WHIP and only six hits/9 innings.

We've also seen flashes of brilliance in the majors, namely 5/1/07 in Texas8/10/07 in Cleveland9/27/07 in Tampa, 10/7/07 in New York, and 9/24/08 in Toronto.

His fastball velocity has been closer to 90-92 than the 95 we were often told about. His velocity has been debated to death, almost as much as Joba's role. I believe when he's 'right', Hughes sits 92-94, which is corroborated by several sources, most importantly Hughes himself. That he hasn't been in that range consistently could be due to one major reason: his injuries. Not only have they robbed him of velocity (most notably the broken rib in early 2008), but they've robbed him of those hot mid-summer games when pitchers typically throw hardest. In 2007 he pulled his hamstring in May and didn't return until August. In 2008 he went out with a broken rib in April and didn't return until September.

Partly because of that, one recurring thought I've had is that he, not Joba, may be the eventual successor to Mariano. Here are the reasons why it could happen:

1. He seems to lose his velocity rather quickly. While he may reach 95 in the 1st inning, he's often down to 92 in the 4th, and 90 in the 6th. I could easily see him throwing 96 for 1-2 innings.

2. He has just two plus pitches (at the moment). His changeup is still about average, but his curve is plus-plus and his fastball (despite the belief of some) is plus - both in terms of velocity and command. To remain a starter, he needs to improve the changeup.

3. He's succumbed to more and longer injuries than Joba. Maybe a move to the pen would keep him healthier.

I'm not saying I want it to happen, just that it might.

 

Anyway, what are your thoughts on Hughes regarding 2009 and the long-term?

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Once again, The Joba Debate

Brought to you by Justin Sablich of the Times -

If you don't know my position, it's thus: Joba has to be given a fair chance to succeed as a starter before Cash and Co. even think about putting him in the pen. That means at least through the 2010 season.

Justin feels Joba should be a reliever. I vehemently disagree. So let's refute each point one by one:

A Chamberlain bridge would make life easier for Rivera, who turned 39 in November and may not be able to crank out a two-inning save with as much ease as in the past.

If Justin didn't notice, the Yanks' bullpen was actually great last year (4th in all MLB) without Joba for five months; Rivera pitched his fewest innings since his injujry shortened 2002 and had his best ERA+ ever. Maybe now that Torre has gone to Hollywood, our relievers won't be abused.

His numbers as a starter last season (2.75 ERA and 10.3 K/9) were almost identical to his stats as a reliever (2.31 ERA and 11.1 K/9). But his shoulder injury came about as a starter, and fewer innings could only help him keep his shoulder strong.

Yes, it's possible Joba would remain healthier as a reliever, but we have far too little information to base that on. One injury on a 100-degree night in Texas (when a pitcher is more susceptible to tendinitis) doesn't mean he's incapable of shouldering (no pun intended) a starter's workload.

A popular argument for having Chamberlain start is that you should not waste a player with such ability as a reliever because the more innings he can pitch the better. Wouldn’t you rather have 230 innings of Chamberlain rather than 90?

The problem with that argument is that you can say the same thing about Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon or a number of other great relievers. Are the Red Sox wasting Papelbon’s talent by limiting his innings and not converting him back to a starter?

Again, yes, you would definitely rather have 230 innings than 90 (which is overly optimistic for a reliever).

Regarding the Papelbon argument, the reason he doesn't start is that he doesn't have the repertoire or pedigree of Joba, and has already proven he can't handle the workload.

If the Yankees used Chamberlain to shorten games to six innings, is that really a waste of talent? It sounds more like an incredible advantage to me.

Yes, it's a waste of talent. First off, this argument has two huge holes because it assumes that 1) the starter is good enough to pitch six innings and the Yankees have a lead, and 2) that Joba can pitch two innings that often.

Anyway, it's fun to debate.

 

- Elsewhere, the Yankees are sending five instructional coaches to Taiwan to teach high-schoolers the basics of baseball. They have a huge following there thanks to Chien Ming-Wang.

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How much for (Hanley) Ramirez?

As I sit here on New Year's Eve, trying to get through Mamma Mia with my relatives, I thought I'd start a debate -

 

The Red Sox recently tried to trade for the Marlins' Hanley Ramirez. Ironically, he was originally a top Boston prospect - he was eventually part of the package that netted Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. Florida wanted some combination of Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz and other prospects, but a trade was never finalized.

My question is: what would you give up from the Yankees' system to acquire Hanley? His numbers are just sick (career 135 OPS+, 137 SB), especially considering he's a shortstop and just turned 25. His defense is often criticized, but it's more reputation than fact - he was three runs above average this year (by comparison, Derek Jeter was four runs below average.)

Where might he play? If Robbie Cano is part of the package, problem solved. If not, he could probably make a decent transition to center-field.

The only player I wouldn't give up is Joba. Cano, Phil Hughes, Jesus Montero and Austin Jackson are all available for a player of Hanley's quality. He's an established perennial All-Star at 25, and is more valuable than another (recent) Marlin, Miguel Cabrera, because he plays defense, runs, and seems to be in shape.

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Sickels' top 20 Yankee prospects

No big surprises. I'm inclined to go higher on Montero and Ajax.

comment 12 days ago Tiny Travis G comment 2 comments 0 recs

We still need Andy

The offer of $10 million for Andy Pettitte is still 'on the table', but a Yankee official says there's only about a 50% chance that he takes it. Otherwise, it will be Phil Hughes in the five spot. I'm anxious to see Hughes over the course of a whole season (knock on wood), but we still need Andy for several reasons -

1. Injuries will happen

A.J. Burnett doesn't exactly have a healthy track record, and Chien Ming-Wang, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes are coming off a season in which they all missed time with injuries.

2. Innings limits

Joba and Hughes still have limits on how many innings they can go. Neither can pitch 200 innings next year, so we can only count on Wang, Burnett and Sabathia to pitch full seasons (if they remain healthy). Pettitte has gone at least 200 innings each of the last four years.

3. Pettitte wasn't that bad

2008 was his worst season in terms of ERA+ and W-L record, but going deeper into his stats shows a different story. His K/BB was its best since 2005, as was his FIP ERA. His BABIP was also at its highest since 2001, so luck clearly had a part in his disappointing year. Therefore, we can reasonably expect him to bounce back in 2009, just like Mussina this year.

68 comments | 0 recs | Digg!

Are the Yankees evil, or is it everyone else?

Food for thought from baseball guru Dan Szymborski -

... the strongest advocates of a salary cap, the ones ranting about salaries in light of the economy, are full of hot air. And something else, but the site nanny won't let me say it.

MLB's revenues have been exploding since 2003 and player salaries have simply not matched this increase in revenues. In 2003, players in baseball made 63% of league revenues. In 2008, that number appears to be 52% of league revenues, or less than any of the other major professional leagues in the US, which all have salary caps.

For decades, wonks, wags, and wigs have told us that player salaries drive upward ticket prices and that arguments about supply and demand are theoretical constructs for an imaginary world. But in the real world, during a time in which the player's slice of the pie has dropped tremendously (a $400 million loss of the pie in 2008 alone, relative to 2003), ticket prices have continued to gone up unabated. Just as expected, savings from limiting the salaries of those mean old players have been filtered directly into the pockets of owners. Owners who cry poverty and get welfare stadiums. Republicans talked about welfare queens 15 years ago, but it would take thousands of so-called queens driving around in taxpayer Cadillacs to match some of the true members of that category. Take Jeff Loria, who pockets revenue-sharing money and then turns around and gets an additional honeypot in the form of an apparently imminent fancy-new stadium. If MLB owners were in charge of the TARP funds, the $700 billion would already be completely gone and the sycophantic media, ever-hungry for prestige, quotes, and free pastrami on rye, would blame it on pay raises for local janitorial staff.

Now, to the Yankees. I've been stalling on saying nice things about the team, but I guess I've got to bite the bullet and get it over with. The Yankees have a mindset that is good for baseball and the US would be better off if more companies possessed the Yankee mindset.

The Yankees do spend more money than other teams in MLB, but the differences would be less drastic if the payrolls of many teams had been rising up to the waves of new cash that have entered baseball in recent years. Going by the NFL formula, very generous considering the MLBPA is far more powerful an entity than any other union in sports, the payroll floor for 2009 would almost certainly be in the $100 million range. 58% of league revenue, as the players in NFL get, would be, in baseball, an average team payroll of a hair under $120 million. It's pretty clear that while the Yankees are outspending everyone comfortably, the rest of baseball has just as much to do with the payroll disparity as the Yankees do.

Now, what about the Yankee mindset? The Steinbrenners aren't anywhere near as rich or as liquid as some other owners in baseball such as Carl Pohlad of the Twins. The difference is that the Steinbrenners have always invested in their team, always striven to put the best product possible out on the field. The Yankees have certainly made some terrible trades, especially when King George was hands-on the most, but they were done with the motive of making the team better. Yes, the Yankees got a huge, undeserved payday from the locals for their stadium, like most teams in baseball did, but it's a mitigating factor that they're actually plowing those funds back into the on-field product. And the team never threatened to not compete until they got their sweet check. Perhaps a small difference, but I see it as a good bit more ethical than Kevin McClatchy demanding taxpayer moneys to help the Pirates compete and then turn around and use all the money to fund his failing media empire.

 

He follows it up with projections for Teixeira through the remainder of his contract. His best year is supposed to be 2010.

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How the negotiations went down

Good stuff from Kat O'Brien -

The Yankees made a substantially lower offer to Teixeira before the winter meetings, an offer that quickly was pulled once Boras informed the Yankees how much he was seeking. The Red Sox, Nationals, Angels and Orioles bid on Teixeira in the next few weeks, with the Yankees not making another contract offer until late Monday.

Even Tuesday, hours before Teixeira agreed to terms, the Yankees were pessimistic about getting the 28-year-old slugger, the source said. Boras told the Yankees they needed a 10-year deal, with the last two years as player options. That got an absolute no from the Yankees, who had offered eight years and $180 million ($22.5 million per year).

Around midday Tuesday, Boras said Teixeira would agree to an eight-year contract, but only if the average annual value was $24 million per year, making the total contract value $192 million. The Yankees conferred, then told Boras no, that they had made a fair yet firm offer and would stand pat, the source said. Boras responded by saying that Teixeira likely would be a Red Sox.

The Yankees refused to budge from their offer, and 20 minutes later, Boras called back and said Teixeira would take their eight-year, $180-million offer.

 

- The Times might sell its share of the Red Sox. They always (as in the last few years) seem to have a slight Boston slant.

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This is Your Life: CC Sabathia

Carsten Charles 'CC' (or C.C. if you prefer) Sabathia was born in Vallejo, California (in the Oakland area) on July 21, 1980. He stands 6'7", and is listed at 290 pounds, which would make him the second heaviest pitcher in Yankee history.

He graduated from Vallejo High School where he was a three sport star (baseball, basketball and football), compiling sick stats as a pitcher: 46.2 ip, 14 h, 82 k, 0.77 ERA. He also played first-base and left-field.

He nearly pursued football (as a tight end), receiving scholarships from USC and Hawaii (where he actually signed a letter of intent to).

Sabathia entered the amateur draft after high school and was selected 20th overall by the Indians, getting a $1.3 million signing bonus. (A year in which the first overall pick was Pat Burrell and the Yankees selected outfielder Andy Brown.) He was assigned to the Burlington (North Carolina) Indians at age 17 and pitched 18 innings, striking out 35.

Sabathia made his major league debut on April 8, 2001 (starting against Baltimore: 5.2 ip, 3 er), and was the first player born in the 80's to play in the majors. He had a very solid rookie season: 180.1 ip, 4.39 era, and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting (to Ichiro).

He made his first All-Star team in 2003 at the age of 22.

He's been on the disabled list twice in his career, once in 2005 and again in 2006 (15-day each time, both with a strained oblique).

Sabathia won the Cy Young Award in 2007, finishing with a 19-7 record, 241 ip, 209 k, 3.21 ERA and a 1.14 whip. He would have won the award again if he hadn't been traded mid-season, having an even better year: 17-10, 253 ip, 251 k, 2.70 ERA, 1.12 whip. He's probably the best free agent pitcher since Randy Johnson in 1998.

The best game of his career was on August 31 of this year, when he threw a complete game, one hitter against Pittsburgh.

However, he has not fared well in the playoffs, earning a 7.92 ERA in (an admittedly small sample of) 25 innings. As if that wasn't bad enough, he's fared progressively worse each year.

Sabathia married his wife (and high school sweetheart) Amber Williams in 2003, and has three children: CC the third, a daughter, Jaeden Arie, and a newborn. In the offseason he resides in Fairfield, California, near Vallejo.

His favorite New York restaurant is Tao (located on East 58 St.), a great place if I don't say so myself. Get the lunch special though.

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