I read a few days ago that the Twins might be 'targeting' JJ Hardy.  I'm not sure if we could somehow get Kevin Slowey off of them, but if we could, would you do it.  I know I would.

Slowey, coming off a solid age 24 season, could reach Super 2 status in 2009 and be arbitration eligible after the season, but if he doesn't, he'll be pre-arb until after 2010.

Slowey doesn't walk anyone.  His K% are decent (18.8% last season in the majors), but not great, though they would stand to improve in the NL. 

Hardy's coming off seasons with 26 and 24 HRs, plays above average D at a premium position, had his highest walk rate since his rookie year, and will be entering his peak seasons, which still figure to be pretty cheap (he made $2.65m in 2008).

Why would the Twins do this?  Because they think they can win now, and that have the pitching to do so. 

What do you all think?

Regardless of how this season ends up, there's a lot of work to do, a lot of things to think about for next year.  Are we really going to go into the 2009 season with Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, McClung/Villanueva as the rotation.  I don't feel completely comfortable with any of those guys.  Bush probably comes the closest for me because I have reasonable expectations of him: 200 IP of league average ball, and he's pretty much proved that he can do that by now.  Gallardo: great star potential, but if he takes some time to get back to form, we might be off to a slow start.  I'm very happy the team move Parra to the bullpen for the rest of the year, but he's had some health concerns in the past and this has been his biggest workload.  Suppan and McClung -- do I need to explain?  Villanueva is probably the next Aaron Heilman, and that's fine. 

What I've been thinking, and based on what's been bandied about, is that the Brewers are going to give Jack Z a lot of picks in 2009, and the team is pretty good at producing above-average-to-all-star caliber hitters, but pitching is always tricky, unless you are the Braves in the 1990s and early '00s.

My question is, who/what do we put our faith in?  The health of our pitchers and the ability of some of them to take big steps forward?  Jack Z in that we trade guys like Prince and/or JJ for starting pitching and hope that Z will have us restocked in short order?  (In the latter option we'd also be having faith in Gamel and Escobar to step up in regular roles, probably.)  I dunno.

I took a little time to compile the list below of 2008 salaries and projected (or actual, for players already under contract) salaries for 2009. 

A couple of notes:

1. for Sabathia and Durham, I only included the salary that the Brewers have to pay

2. in the "09 Option" column, Arb2, for example, means that the player will be entering his second arbitration year this upcoming offseason; FA is free agent; Club is club option on the 09 Salary listed

3. I'm not sure if the contracts given to guys like Callix Crabbe and Randy Choate count against what we normally consider 'payroll', because they are more veteran minor league deals.  either way, they would only shave $1mm off this years total

4. for guys in arbitration, i estimated the best i could based on what some other players got.  the estimation on Prince's salary could be high or low based on how you look at it.  i think he takes a little hit this season, but he's still a lot younger than Ryan Howard.  for J.J., i used Joe Crede's in his second arb year because he was a comparable player.

Please feel free to correct me or 'weigh in' because i just did my best -- i am no expert.

NAME                POS     08 SALARY         09ProjSal        09 Option
Sheets, Ben        SP     $11,000,000.00      $-                      FA
Sabathia, CC      SP     $4,950,000.00       $-                         FA
Gagne, Eric        RP     $10,000,000.00      $-                       FA
Suppan, Jeff       SP     $8,500,000.00      $12,500,000.00    
Durham, Ray      2B     $2,541,000.00      $-                          FA
Cameron, Mike   CF     $4,980,000.00      $10,000,000.00     Club
Hall, Bill              3B     $4,800,000.00      $6,800,000.00    
Kendall, Jason     C     $5,250,000.00       $4,600,000.00    
Riske, David       RP     $4,000,000.00      $4,250,000.00    
Capuano, Chris    SP     $3,750,000.00      $3,750,000.00    
Mota, Guillermo   RP     $3,200,000.00      $-                           FA
Torres, Salomon  RP     $3,200,000.00      $3,750,000.00     Club
Counsell, Craig    IF     $2,800,000.00      $3,400,000.00     Club
Hardy, J.J.          SS     $2,650,000.00      $4,500,000.00     Arb2
Bush, Dave        SP     $2,550,000.00      $3,750,000.00     Arb2
Shouse, Brian    RP     $2,000,000.00      $-                             FA
Weeks, Rickie    2B     $1,057,000.00      $2,000,000.00      Arb2
Kapler, Gabe       OF     $800,000.00      $-                              FA
McClung, Seth    RP     $750,000.00      $1,000,000.00       Arb2
Braun, Ryan        OF     $455,050.00      $745,000.00    
Fielder, Prince     1B     $670,000.00      $8,500,000.00        Arb1
Branyan, Russell  IF     $400,000.00      $-                              FA
Nix, Laynce         OF     $475,000.00      $-                            Arb2
Hart, Corey          OF     $444,000.00      $2,750,000.00       Arb1
Gallardo, Yovani   SP     $404,000.00      $450,000.00        Pre-Arb
Rivera, Mike          C     $395,000.00       $410,000.00        Pre-Arb
Dillon, Joe            UT     $393,000.00      $-                           FA
Munson, Eric         C     $525,000.00        $-                            FA
Crabbe, Callix       IF     $390,000.00        $-      
Choate, Randy     RP     $500,000.00      $-      
Turnbow, Derrick  RP     $3,200,000.00      $-                        FA
Parra, Manny       SP     $392,000.00       $444,000.00       Pre-Arb
                                    $87,421,050.00      $73,599,000.00     

So, it looks as if we'll have 'freed up' $14mm, but that assumes that Attanasio wants to keep spending that much. 

I would guess that we have to spend a little bit on a SP somewhere, given the nigh departure of our two best pitchers, and the uncertain health of several others.

I also assumed that, at this point, we are set to pick up Cameron's option.  He's exceeded my expectations, I don't know about y'all.