Here is an interesting article at Fangraphs which touches on all of the subjects in the title of this post.  The author demonstrates that line drive rates and Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) vary by ballpark.   The article questions the validity of  comparing the "Line Drive % + .12"  rule of thumb to BABIP rates.   However, in the course of doing so, the article identifies significant differences in line drive rates by ballpark.

This, in itself, is intriguing.  And Minute Maid Park is at ground zero of this phenomona.  As stated in the article:

Four of the lowest six LD rates belong to Michael Bourn, Geoff Blum, Ty Wigginton and Hunter Pence, and Minute Maid Park has the second lowest LD park factor at 0.82. This is not saying that Houston batters hit fewer line drives - it’s that Houston and it opponents both have 18% fewer balls scored as liners in Houston than they do on the road.

Why?  Well that is the intrigue I mentioned.  Could this amount to human bias in the coding of batted balls as line drive, flyball, etc. ?   Are factors like the batting background, atmospheric conditions, foul territory, and the like causing differences among ballparks?

In some previous posts regarding Hunter Pence, I expressed concern about his seemingly depressed line drive rate this year.  Now I see that maybe this has as much to do with the ballpark as it does Pence's skill.

The article derives a simple linear equation using line drive, flyball, and groundball rates as variables which proves to be very accurate at predicting hitters' BABIP.  However, when the formula is turned around to predict pitchers' BABIP, he finds that certain pitchers consistently beat the prediction:

Even so, some pitchers consistently defy the estimates. Roger Clemens, Brian Bannister, Chien-Ming Wang, Carlos Zambrano, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Chris Young and Greg Maddux all do at least .020 better than estimated. On the other end, Zach Duke, Sidney Ponson and Glendon Rusch all under perform by at least .020. Is it the ballpark? Is it their defense? The batters they faced? Or is it their own skill or lack of it?

The author of this article seems to be finding that the normally accepted precepts of DIPS are more nuanced than it is often presented.  He hopes to present more detailed research in the future which disaggregates batted ball types and fielding conditons by ballpark in more detail.

This may or may not totally bore you.  The article is somewat dense to read.  But I have to say that this article seems to be challenging accepted views on BABIP and DIPS in an interesting way.

 MLB television network has been launched.  Unfortunately, my cable company, Grande Communications, doesn't  carry it.  I would love to have seen the historic footage of the Don Larson perfect game which was shown in one of the initial MLB network broadcasts.   If you get tired of ESPN's Baseball Tonight, the MLB Network may become a good alternative.  You can put your zip code into the MLB Network web site "channel locator" to determine if you have access to the network.

If that process shows that your cable provider doesn't carry the network, you can choose to have the web site send a letter to the provider requesting that it carry the network.  I did that for Grande (and if any other Austin/San Marcos subscribers feel the same, please go throough the same process).

I don't usually link to other message boards, but I think this post by Bob Hulsey at the Astrosdaily message board about the circumstances behind the Larson perfect game footage was intriguing.

As you probably know, Tejada previously decided to end his long tradition of playing in Dominican winter games, and said he would stay in Florida, preparing for the regular season.  However, now Tejada has second thoughts because his winter league team is down 0-3 in the playoffs, and he may play in the Dominican games.  Maybe this isn't that big a deal, but I was hoping that Tejada might improve his MLB performance next season if he rested in the off-season.  Dying Quail previously showed that rest games during the season helped Tejada's performance.  It makes sense that off-season rest may help him too.  Few ML stars play winter league games when they reach his age.

so there goes another utility infield candidate.  I think Quail and I both pointed to MIles as one of the better choices from a fairly weak field of free agent utility infielders. 

Reportedly this signing was made in order to allow the Cubs to trade DeRosa to the Indians for multiple young pitchers.  If that is true, combined with the trade of Marquis to the Rockies, the Cubs appear to be positioning themselves for another run at Peavy.  The Cubs also are rumored to pick up Milton Bradley for their outfield.  That isn't a bad choice, if it happens, but it is a tad risky.  One wonders if we will see some kind of blow up in the dugout between Piniella and Bradley.  Dugout fisticuffs are known to happen in Cubbie land.

You can head on down to MLBTR if you want to see the source of some of these tidbits.

As for the Astros' search for a utility  infielder...how about Craig Counsell?  Is he a cinch to re-sign with the Brewers or something?  (Maybe Ol' Pete will give us some insight.)  Counsell is a good defensive player, puts up a good OBP, though with little power.  He seems like a nice Loretta-like player.  (OK, maybe better defensively than Loretta, but not as consistent offensively...however, you get the idea.)  A recent article at beyond the boxscore looked at the weak crop of FA utility infielders and concluded that Counsell is probably the best.

In a post a month or so ago, I threw out the idea that the current economic recession might provide an opportunity for a significant number of baseball teams to collude in an effort to push down salary levels.  McLane's abrupt limitation on Wade's budgeting, Bud Selig preaching to owners about cutting costs in light of the recession, and rumors that many teams would wait until late to sign free agents, all seemed to point toward my pure speculation on this matter.

Murray Chass, the ex-New York Times baseball columnist had a blog entry which discusses the history of payroll cap talk and mentions that some agents are also suspicious of collusion.  An excerpt:

“There are a lot of rumblings that all the teams know exactly what everyone is doing with free agents,” one prominent agent said.

But a union lawyer said the union didn’t have any evidence of information sharing, and Rob Manfred, the owners’ chief labor executive, denied the existence of any sharing operation.

“I don’t know how an agent would have any information about that,” Manfred said. “There is no formal notification about information. Given all the information that’s out there publicly, it would be difficult not to know what teams have offered.”

Whether or not the clubs are sharing offers, there’s no question that the market is moving slower than usual and except for some of the big contracts, free agents are signing for or being offered less than in past years.

But agents acknowledge that the clubs have a ready-made excuse, or cover, for not acting as they have in previous years: the economy.

“There’s continuing pressure for teams to cut their budgets,” an agent said. “Teams that intended to be aggressive had to cut back because budgets have been lowered.”

Commissioner Bud Selig has warned clubs about watching what they spend because of the depressed state of the economy. Most teams seem to be heeding the warning. The Yankees aren’t in that group.

2009 Projection   703  runs

2008 Actual   712 runs

That's the implication of this article at fangraphs.  The author compares Lidge's performance in 2007 for the Astros and 2008 for the Phillies, and concludes that the gap in performance wasn't very much, meaning that he was just unluckier with the Astros in 2007.  The author states:

While Lidge was somewhat better in 2008, this comparison serves to show how there really wasn’t that wide of a difference between “head case” Lidge in ‘07 and “World Series champ” Lidge in ‘08. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times (which evaluates pitchers based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run/flyball rate), we find that ‘07 Lidge (3.42) was a little worse than ‘08 Lidge (3.06), but not by as much as one might initially think. What led to the big gap in perception?

The big difference between 07 and 09 was the percentage of flyballs which went out of the park.  To some extent this is a factor which is driven by luck.  The fact that Lidge had a HR/fly rate much higher than his norm in 2007 and much lower than his norm in 2008, according to the author, lends credence to the idea that he just hit bad luck in 07 and rebounded with good luck in 08. 

This argument is at odds with the frequently stated views that "Lidge needed a change of scenery" and "Lidge would have sucked again if he had stayed in Houston."

The Rule 5 draft occurs next Thursday as the winter meeting takes place in Las Vegas. Ah, Las Vegas seems particularly appropriate for a discussion of the Rule 5 draft !  In many ways, the Rule 5 draft is like spinning the Wheel of Fortune.  Even with the best scouting, the Rule 5 draft is a crap shoot. 

The Rule 5 dratt probably gets more attention than it deserves from baseball obsessed fans.  After all, many teams don't pick anybody; in fact, some teams can't pick anybody because their 40 man roster is full.  And the vast majority of Rule 5 picks are soon forgotten.  But I think fans like the Rule 5 draft for the same reason that the Lotto and Lottery scratch off games are popular.  The possibility exists, as remote as it may be, that a Rule 5 draft choice could change the fortunes of a franchise---like Roberto Clemente or Johan Santana.  Also, everybody likes free stuff; and the $50,000 cost is virtually free, in major league baseball terms anyway.

In this article, I will focus on the major league Rule 5 draft.  I haven't seen these players, but I can glean a little bit from their stats.  All teams will also rely on their scouting reports in making Rule 5 choices.  Last year, Wesley Wright was chosen largely because newly hired, ex-Dodgers scout Clarence Johns knew him and originally signed him.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Astros' choice  depends on whether any of their scouts know particular players and are pushing to draft them.

I don't know of any overall published list of Rule 5 eligible draftees (the listing would entail 400-500 names). Most minor leaguers drafted in the 2005 and 2004 amateur draft will be eligible for the Rule 5, unless they have been protected.  However, I have relied heavily on two web sites for lists of Rule 5 candidates.  BaseballAnalysts.com has an article on hitters here and pitchers here.  BaseballThinkFactory has an article here.  As you look at the BTF article, an additional listing is shown in comment number 3.  If you want to look at comprehensive listings and do your own research, check out those links.  An interesting research web site for minor leaguers is minorleaguesplits.com, which shows every conceivable split and even clutch stats.  This site also has a feature to convert a player's minor league stats to "major league equivalents" (MLE). 

Because the Rule 5 draftees are raw, and in some sense "rejects,"  who must stay on a major league roster all season, certain roles tend to get the most attention.  Many relief pitchers are chosen, because they are easier to "hide" in the back of a bullpen.  Players who are good bench candidates as defensive substitutes, pinch runners and pinch hitters have a better chance of making the roster.  It isn't likely that you will get a pitcher for the starting rotation from the Rule 5 draft, at least immediately.  Johan Santana was drafted out of the Astros' system, and a relatively weak Twins team was able to find a spot for Santana in the bullpen.  This allowed Santana to adjust to the major leagues as a reliever; a couple of years later he was a mainstay in the Twins' rotation.  Also, left / right handedness may be important in determining whether a role can be found for the Rule 5 draftee.

From the Astros perspective, I emphasize the following roles:

(1) utility infielder.  With the likely losses of Loretta and Newhan, it would be helpful to find a young, cheap utility infielder.

(2) outfielder. Ideally, a RHB centerfielder to share time with Bourn would be most useful.  Realizing that Erstad can cover CF, a young corner infielder might compete with Abercrombie for the 5th outfielder spot.

(3) 3d base.  If the Astros are seriously considering trading Wigginton, a young RHB third baseman who platoons with Blum would be useful.

(4) catcher.  If J.R. Towles starts out in Round Rock, is it possible to find a decent young catcher instead of paying for a free agent?  If nothing else, the Astros need catchers in spring training to be receivers for the large number of pitchers.

(5) relief pitcher. You can never have enough relief pitchers.  Just ask Ed Wade. Chris Sampson is coming back from surgery, just one example of why you need depth. A decent LOOGY might be able to replace Byrdak more cheaply.  A young hard thrower might start in the mop up role and  (if all goes well) advance to a late inning role later.

Ok, here are some names I have picked as possibilities (after the jump).

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