From Deadspin

OK, let's do a little test of the Internets today: In the last hour, we have been forwarded a list of players mentioned in the Mitchell Report by about 25 different people. Is this list substantiated? No. Is it from an MLB official? No. Do we have any reason to believe it's anything but random bunk? No. But it's what's making the rounds today, and we're less than three hours away, and if the list is wrong, we'll know real soon.

But, if you're curious, here's the list of players supposedly mentioned in the report, according to just about every email we've received. It could very likely be one of those Web urban legends that somehow got around, like when everyone thought Scott Baio was dead. It probably is, actually. (We mean, come on: The list has Rich Garces on it.) We'll know soon enough, but, for now, for "fun" ... After the jump.

(UPDATE: A source inside baseball says this list is "not entirely accurate." Emphasis ours.)

(SECOND UPDATE: WNBC apparently has the same list, some names of which have been disputed by baseball. But not all. And less than two hours to go!)

Brady Anderson
Manny Alexander
Rick Ankiel
Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Aaron Boone
Rafael Bettancourt
Bret Boone
Milton Bradley
David Bell
Dante Bichette
Albert Belle
Paul Byrd
Wil Cordero
Ken Caminiti
Mike Cameron
Ramon Castro
Jose and Ozzie Canseco
Roger Clemens
Paxton Crawford
Wilson Delgado
Lenny Dykstra
Johnny Damon
Carl Everett
Kyle Farnsworth
Ryan Franklin
Troy Glaus
Rich Garces
Jason Grimsley
Troy Glaus
Juan Gonzalez
Eric Gagne
Nomar Garciaparra
Jason Giambi
Jeremy Giambi
Jose Guillen
Jay Gibbons
Juan Gonzalez
Clay Hensley
Jerry Hairston
Felix Heredia, Jr.
Darren Holmes
Wally Joyner
Darryl Kile
Matt Lawton
Raul Mondesi
Mark McGwire
Guillermo Mota
Robert Machado
Damian Moss
Abraham Nunez
Trot Nixon
Jose Offerman
Andy Pettitte
Mark Prior
Neifi Perez
Rafael Palmiero
Albert Pujols
Brian Roberts
Juan Rincon
John Rocker
Pudge Rodriguez
Sammy Sosa
Scott Schoenweiis
David Segui
Alex Sanchez
Gary Sheffield
Miguel Tejada
Julian Tavarez
Fernando Tatis
Mo Vaughn
Jason Varitek
Ismael Valdes
Matt Williams
Kerry Wood.

Continue reading this post »

10 Really bad losses.  You pick the worst.

Continue reading this post »

On days when Turnbow has had at least a day of rest:

33 games
30 innings
19 hits
7 ER
13 BB
37 K
0 HR
2.10 ERA

On days when Turnbow has had no rest:

19 games
16 innings
16 hits
15 ER
9 BB
21 K
4 HR
8.44 ERA

Ned talked about getting Linebrink to get some rest for Turnbow.  The numbers seem to back up the theory that Turnbow pitches better with at least a day off between appearances.

Hunter Pence has hit the DL for 4 - 6 weeks with an injured wrist.  

Now I know that everyone here is familiar with Ryan Braun.  But I bet if you asked the average fan, they would be split at 50-50 between Pence and Braun for ROY.

Just a recap:

Braun     Pence

51 G          73 G
206 AB       312 AB
43 R          42  R
71 H          103 H
16 HR        12  HR
43 RBI       45  RBI
16 BB        10  BB
48 K          60  K
8  SB         8 SB   
.392 OBP      .355 OBP    
.670 SLG      .564 SLG   
.345 AVG      .330 AVG

1.062 OPS  .919 OPS

One reason that some people lean toward Pence is because he has played an extra month.  Now Braun will catch up in playing time and as long as he keeps ups the gaudy numbers, he should be a lock for best rookie.  

His HR numbers will clinch it.

81 games down 81 to go.  What are you happy about? Not so happy about?  I'll go first.

-- Happy --

Hart and Hardy (sounds like a soup).   These are the hitters that surprised me.  I know others have been high on Hart, but I had not been bullish on someone that projected to be a .280 20/20 guy.

The Uber Prospects  I know its early and that they may occasionally struggle, but Braun can rake.  And Yovani can mow.

Sheets  Kind of taken for granted, and hasn't been flashy, but the healthy ace has been very good.

The Closers  Turnow and Cordero have been very solid

-- Not So Happy --

Middle relief  Dessens and Aquino have highlighted some shaky middle relievers.

Weeks His window for taking the next big step is closing

Starters not named Sheets  A whole lot of average.

Outfield depth  If Jenkins could hit lefties, Mench might never play.  Gross is just a guy.

I got the Sporting News magazine in the mail today and the writer (Stan McNeal) listed who he thought would be on the rosters.  He listed Fielder as a starter and Hardy and Cordero, but no Sheets.

Pros
8-3 3.19 ERA
Winning team
Name recognition

Cons
Started a little slowly
Strikeouts are down.  Hasn't been real dominant.
Every team needs to be represented.
Might have 3 other Brewers on the team.

I'm guessing he sneaks in with an ERA of 2.98. Story is online as well http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=225733

Its tough to decide because they don't have any glaring needs.  The infield appears to be set for years.  The rotation has a lot of depth.

I guess catcher is a possibility.  Outfield maybe.

I'm guessing they just go with the best available.

I'm afraid of another power arm (like Parker).  I might go with a position player because we apparently ave a knack for grabbing quality position players.

Whereas our pitching draft history has been spotty at best.

There are a few items that I would like to look at today, challenging conventional Bill Hall wisdom.

1) Bill is trying too much to hit the opposite way.

Billy has always pulled ground balls to left and has been a spray fly ball hitter.  That is also the case this year.  His hitting chart shows that his past hitting patterns are still in effect

2) Bill is not walking as much.  

This is true.  Though if he were to walk at last year's rate he would only have 4 more walks and his OBP would be only about .010 points higher.

In fact, though his walks ans K's are down, his BB/K% is still a bit below average and largely consistent as seen here

3)  Bill is grounding out more. This is very true, and this is probably affecting his slugging because his HR/FB rate has also dropped.

You can see that his FB% is down to 41% from last year's 48%.  His HR's per FB is down from 19.4% to 10.9%.  It is this combination of things that is killing his slugging percentage, and to a lesser extent his OBP.

134 balls in play.
55 fly balls
6 HR

Using last years percentages he would have
134 balls in play
64 fly balls
12 HR

If Hall had the same FB% and same HR/FB% as last year his SLG% would be at about .560, and his OPS would be about .900.

4)  Hall was due to regress a bit.

Sadly this also appears to be true.

Last year Hall hit .270/35HR/85RBI/.899OPS

Projected Bill James .268/24HR/71RB/.815OPS
Projected CHONE .265/26HR/86RBI/.820OPS
Projected Marcel .276/23HR/73RBI/.836OPS
Projected ZiPS  .268/24HR/72RBI/.830OPS

On pace 2007  .256/20HR/67RBI/.743OPS

Here is my guess.  And its only a guess.  The smart guys that project this stuff thought that the HR's were an aberration.  The HR/FB% of 19.4% put him in company with some heavy hitters.

He was projected to keep the rest of his numbers constant (adjusted for having about 10 fewer home runs), and even have fewer walks and strikeouts.  So basically he is just a little worse than projected by the experts.

Sheets  2-1 3.15 ERA  4BB  18K in 3 starts
Suppan  1-3 5.40 ERA 12BB  10K in 4 starts
Vargas  0-1 7.04 ERA  7BB   8K in 3 starts
Capuano 0-4 7.08 ERA  8BB  14K in 4 starts
Bush    0-2 7.13 ERA  4BB  12K in 3 starts

Yes folks, that is a sparkling 5.86 ERA among the 5 of them.

Anybody got Yovani's number?

Graffanino.

I'm done talking about how unlucky Dave Bush is.  For now.  I'm moving on.  Let someone else talk about it.

Today I'm going to talk about whether Graffanino is unlucky.  First lets look at his historic OBP:

What you see is a very capable hitter who reached base at the league average or above for 8 straight  years, before dropping off badly this year.

You would think that platooning would give him a bump up, but in truth, aside from 2003, he hits lefties and righties pretty equally as seen here:

There are two big dropoffs. The first is that his BABIP is a paltry .213 which is pretty incredibly low.  At first glance it appears that Tony must be just hitting the ball right at guys.

Now we know that he typically exceeds the average BABIP So he is either very unlucky, or has had an ability drop off which brings us to his LD/GB/FB%

In the past two years his line drive percentage has dropped from 22% to 11%.  Of the 91 balls put in play, only 10 have been line drives.

So, is he unlucky in that his BABIP is so low, or is the 35 year old in a permanent decline?