Link to the NYTimes article here.

Okay, so if I grasp the concept correctly, this very smart man who is paid to do very smart things decided to represent the managers of baseball through faces with features that change according to the manager's tendencies. Chernoff faces, as they are apparently called by people in the know.

(click the picture for the big version)

No, the scientists behind the whole thing don't think they're revolutionizing baseball analysis -- from what I understand, the purpose of the experiment is to see if there are similarities that jump out from statistical data when it is portrayed in a way that is more easily related to. Yes, the managerial tendencies here depicted are often heavily dependent on player quality. Just put away the cynic for a second.

Here's what the article has to say about LaRussa:

The St. Louis Cardinals’ Tony La Russa, known as a constant tinkerer, had his National League-leading 150 different batting orders (in 162 games) translate into an elongated head and wider eyes.

First of all, holy crap, that's a lot of different batting orders. Talk about your mixing and matching. Yikes.

Second, I love that Tony just ended up with a gigantic head. I'm not one of the huge TLR detractors, but the guy does clearly think highly of himself (or is extremely confident in his decisions -- however you want to spin it) and him having an enormous dome cracks me up. If you don't want to spin it that way, then at least admit that TLR is a big personality and he deserves to have a giant Chernoff face.

The article also points out Pinella's scowl, Torre's serene expression, and Bochy's realistically cartoonish head shape as amusing results, for what it's worth (I think Torre looks a little too jolly myself). And personally, I think that one of the coolest aspects of the whole article was this:

"People think of managers as ‘good’ or ‘bad,’ but there’s little evidence usually about what these guys actually do and what their styles may be," said Dr. Wang, 37, who wrote his master’s thesis at the University of Chicago on Markov models of baseball lineups. "And in numerical form it’s pretty overwhelming. You’re not sure what the standards are, which numbers are high or low."

That's a man who knows how to enjoy his education. Funny, they don't let me write very many papers on baseball in school...

Just  a little fun. You can turn that inner cynic back on now.

No, the title isn’t a typo. Just a little fun with the Cardinals roster (and non-roster invitees) and a history book. Okay, Baseball-Reference.com – who uses books these days?

This shows the results the Cardinals would garner if each player below produced the stats they produced in 2004.

THE 2004 2008 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

C: Jason LaRue – .251/.334/.431, 14 HR

1B: Albert Pujols – .331/.415/.657, 46 HR

2B: Adam Kennedy – .278/.351/.406, 10 HR

3B: Troy Glaus – .251/.355/.575, 18 HR (207 AB)

SS: Cesar Izturis – .288/.330/.381, 4 HR (and a gold glove)

LF: Juan Gonzalez – .276/.326/.441, 5 HR (127 AB)

CF: Um…

RF: Juan Encarnacion – .236/.299/.405, 16 HR (rough year...RIP Juan)

B: Yadier Molina – .267/.329/.356, 2 HR (135 AB, rookie)

B: D’Angelo  Jimenez – .270/.364/.394, 12 HR (563 AB)

B: Josh Phelps – .251/.304/.450, 17 HR (371 AB)

B: Ryan Ludwick – .220/.278/.380, 2 HR (50 AB)

B: Aaron Miles – .293/.32/.368, 6 HR (522 AB)

SP: Chris Carpenter – 15-5, 3.46 ERA, 152 K (28 GS)

SP: Matt Clement – 9-13, 3.68 ERA, 190 K (30 GS)

SP: Mark Mulder – 17-8, 4.43 ERA, 140 K (33 GS)

SP: Joel Piniero – 6-11, 4.67 ERA, 111 K (21 GS)

SP: Ryan Franklin – 4-16, 4.90 ERA, 104 K (32 GS)

SP: Kyle Lohse – 9-13, 5.34 ERA, 111 K (34 GS)

SP: Dewon Brazelton –  6-8, 4.77 ERA, 64 K (21 GS)

LH: Ron Villone – 56 G, 4.08 ERA (10 GS)

LH: Randy Flores – 9 G, 1.93 ERA

RH: Cliff Politte – 54 G, 4.38 ERA

RH: Todd Wellemeyer – 20 G, 5.92 ERA

RH: Russ Springer – 16 G, 2.63 ERA

CL: Braden Looper – 71 G, 2.70 ERA, 29 SV

CL: Jason Isringhausen – 74 G, 2.87 ERA, 47 SV

That’s a downright solid infield, if we pretend that Glaus didn’t miss more than half the year. And hell, Iz2ris and Kennedy were useful players back then. LaRue could even hit a little bit. And that Pujols guy, he was decent.

The outfield tails off hard, however – Juan Encarnacion (who I feel I can use, since the Cardinals are still paying the guy) had a downright awful year even by his standards. Juan Gonzalez was in the twilight of the twilight of his career…I guess he’s in the next morning now. I could stick Ankiel’s .500 OBP (1 AB) or Ludwick’s 50 ABs in CF, but I don’t really see the point. Schumaker would make his debut in 2005 along with Chris Duncan, so neither of those guys can slot into the outfield. Who’s still unsigned today that the 2004 2008 Cardinals could grab? Lofton? The actual 2004 Cards had Sanders, Edmonds, and Walker.

Pretty good bench, too – Jimenez could rotate in at both 2B and SS and hit as well or better than both of the other guys. Phelps had pop even back then and was still doing a little catching, not that this team would need it. Molina was making his debut as a 21 year old. I threw Ludwick on there just for the hell of it. Aaron Miles got 500+ AB in his rookie year…and did exactly what he always does. Again, this team needs some outfield help; darn those young OFs on the 2008 Cards, they’re screwing up my team.

Pretty strong (and healthy) rotation. Hilariously healthy, actually, compared to now. This experiment landed right on Mulder’s bad year in Oakland, unfortunately. There are also just a lot of candidates when you add Franklin back to a starting role and throw flame-out-extraordinaire Brazelton into the mix…and I didn’t even use John Wasdin, who made 10 starts in 2004. That helps the shallowness of the bullpen a bit, since not all of those guys could be starters. Note: I really only threw W/L records in there because it’s fun to see how good (or not) players’ teams were – check out Piniero and Franklin’s records over in Seattle. Clement got no help in Chicago, while Mulder won 17 games with a middling year in Oakland. Yet more evidence to the worthlessness of W/L.

The bullpen isn’t bad – talk about a closing duo in Loop and Izzy. Springer and Flores were both good, but in limited time. Villone was a solid and durable lefty, and his ERA would likely have stayed under 4.00 if he hadn’t been thrust into the Mariners rotation every once in a while. Politte was good for the White Sox that year, if not amazing. Wellemeyer was atrocious for the Cubs, just terrible. Hard to argue with the back of that bullpen, though.

If it weren’t for the lack of a serviceable outfield, I’d wonder if this team wasn’t better than the actual 2008 Cardinals. I’m not sure just how sad I should be at that revelation. 

For those slogans we were trying to think of for this year’s Cardinals, I have an idea:

“Party like it’s 2004!”

Kennedy: Kennedy shrugged off LaRussa's public comments saying they'd talked about it and there were no hard feelings (taking notes, Rolen?). He also said that over the winter he made the effort to train more, be in better overall shape, and to retool his swing. Interestingly, he also had Lasik surgery recently.

Glaus: Grew up loving Ozzie Smith (he was a SS at the time). Um...that's literally all he said.

Schumaker: Spieled some typical athlete speak about being more confident, wanting to take jobs, making the most of opportunities, and his training (worked out hard with Edmonds and Reyes with that guy with LA SWAT).

Mulder: Says he's not limited on exercises, throwing 120-150 feet or further. Says he "just didn't feel right" last year. Admits that he hasn't been right the whole time in St. Louis, but that he finally feels right this spring. Can't wait to get out on the mound and prove that he can be the pitcher he was.

Spiezio: HIS GOATEE ISN'T DYED RED!

And just for fun, the impressions I got of everyone: Mulder comes off as very frank and honest, Schumaker is clearly just saying all the stuff you're supposed to say, and Kennedy seemed humbled and optimistic.

It was also noted that Anthony Reyes appears to be in excellent shape, thanks to his training with the SWAT guy who Kennedy said "had a screw loose." To some extent this is all just media fodder, I know, but it's nice to hear good things from/about Kennedy, Reyes, and Mulder. It was also cool to see Matheny in camp. Can't wait to finally see some baseball.

Baseball Prospectus Article
Future Redbirds Article

Subscriber material, so I can't post most of the article, but since you can see it anyway without being a member, here's the rankings:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus, CF
Four-Star Prospects
2. Chris Perez, RHP
3. Bryan Anderson, C
Three-Star Prospects
4. Adam Ottavino, RHP
5. Jaime Garcia, LHP
6. Tyler Herron, RHP
7. Jose Martinez, SS
8. Peter Kozma, SS
9. Clayton Mortensen, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
10. Joe Mather, OF
11. Jarrett Hoffpauir, 2B

Just Missing: David Freese, 3B; David Kopp, RHP; Jess Todd, RHP

I find myself somewhat surprised by low rankings for Garcia and Kozma (I expected Garcia to be a four-star and Kozma to be ranked higher based on potential), but otherwise I think this is fairly in line with what I expected. I'll be exciting to see how some of these very guys (Rasmus most importantly, of course) perform in spring training.

A one year deal worth $3.5 million.

This frees up the Cubs to maybe swing one of their young pitchers in a trade, maybe get whatever they can for Marquis, maybe move Dempster back to closer (PLEASE!), or whatever. The rotation will probably be Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Lieber, and Marquis/Dempster.

I see this as a cheap, league-averageish, stopgap option missed by the Cardinals. I would've liked to have seen him in Cardinal red -- the Clement/Mulder duo scares the living crap out of me, and $3.5 million is pretty cheap these days for a guy of Lieber's quality. Oh well.

So my friend (a fellow VEB'er) and I were looking at the shirts for sale on the site yesterday and we decided that they are pretty much the ugliest things ever. No offense to whoever designed them -- but they're pretty blocky. Enough that it would actually discourage myself and possibly my friend from buying one when we otherwise might. Not good business, I would say.

So we took it upon ourselves (well, my friend did most of the real work, but I'll leech some credit here) to redesign the shirts to be a little more sleek. Obviously we couldn't use any copyrighted Cardinals logos, so we more or less stuck with the bird in the top-left corner of the site's main page.

Here are some designs we came up with -- we only bothered doing one color on the back, but obviously you can see how they would all be similar. We also thought about changing the catch phrase on the back of the shirt, but decided that we couldn't think of anything better than the current one -- if anyone has any comically genius ideas, feel free to post them...changing the text is easy peasy.

Without further ado, a few of the front designs:

And the design for the back:

Feedback appreciated. We're not exactly wizards with Photoshop, so the images aren't as crisp as they could be, but you get the idea. I don't know exactly how the t-shirt sales work on here, but I think (as humbly as possible) that these are at least an upgrade from the previous installments.

Another possibility is, of course, adding more colors -- I think a gray or white with the fully-animated Cardinal head would be pretty easy to mock up. Again, I don't know what the limitations are on the t-shirt store or the connections it has with SB Nation. That's lboros' territory.

So yeah, feel free to tell us what you think/offer suggestions/ridicule mercilessly. All comments and so forth appreciated.

-mojowo11 and friend

The Boston Herald reported on Monday night that the right-hander and the Red Sox are close to reaching agreement on a one-year, incentive-laden deal. Citing a person familiar with the talks, The Associated Press reported that a deal could be reached within a few days.

Schilling told the newspaper that things "gathered momentum and if they continued to progress like they did [on Sunday] something could potentially get done."

Sources told the Herald that the final hurdle in the deal may be the 40-year-old Schilling passing a physical.

Schilling, who is not represented by an agent, went 9-8 with a 3.87 ERA last season. He won three games in the postseason, including Game 2 of the World Series on the way to Boston's sweep of the Colorado Rockies.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3096549

-------------------------------

From 38pitches.com (his official blog)

"Talks with the Red Sox are moving. Theo and I have spoken multiple times daily over the past week and given the current situation I am feeling very confident that we will be able to finalize a 1 year contract to allow us a chance to finish our career as members of the Red Sox organization.

"There are some things to iron out and details that must be finalized for both sides but barring something unforseen or outrageously odd happening I feel very comfortable that I will finish my career here."

---------------------------

Sounds like it's going to get done. There goes one of the possibilities for the Cardinals rotation.

I was typing up the Cardinals injuries for another forum, and then I decided to try out the projected Opening Day lineup for the 2007 Cardinals and see how everyone was doing health-wise (note: this isn't the actual Opening Day lineup, since people were already injured by then...go Cards!).

As you can probably guess, it's almost comically abysmal...and this doesn't even include the guys who are hurt that weren't supposed to start, the death of Josh Hancock, and so on. We all sort of know this, but it's ridiculous to see it laid out in a list. We've only got 2 of our projected starters left, for chrissake.

---------------------------------------------

C: Yadier Molina - INJURED. Recently had season-ending knee surgery.

1B: Albert Pujols - PLAYING HURT. Albert is sort of always playing hurt, but his legs/feet seem to have affected him more this year than before. Albert has just returned to the lineup after not starting for about a week. He wants his 100 runs and 100 RBIs, and ain't nobody gonna stop him.

2B: Adam Kennedy - INJURED. After sucking something awful (279 AB, .572 OPS) for the first half of the year or so, Kennedy had season-ending surgery for a torn meniscus in his knee. Kennedy making room for Ryan may have been the offensive turning point of the season, but he's injured regardless.

3B: Scott Rolen - INJURED. Recently had season-ending shoulder surgery. Nobody was surprised.

SS: David Eckstein - HEALTHY! Hoo-freaking-ray.

LF: Chris Duncan - INJURED. Had season-ending surgery for a sports hernia that he dealt with throughout the entire second half of the season, a period during which he saw his numbers (power and average) decrease markedly.

CF: Jim Edmonds - INJURED. Seemingly limited to pinch-hitting for the remainder of the season thanks to a groin injury. Last started almost two weeks ago. Not that he was outhitting anyone.

RF: Juan Encarnacion - INJURED. Smashed in the face with a foul ball. Recently had surgery to correct some orbital damage. Career in jeopardy. Sigh.

SP: Chris Carpenter - INJURED. Tommy John #2. Good thing he signed that extension.