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Open Thread: Game 101, AZ (they're still worse than we are) at Milwaukee

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Tonight it's Chris Capuano (11-6, 3.80) against his former team and Brandon Webb (8-7, 4.03).  The Brewers could make it back to .500 if they swept this series (fingers, toes, and calculators crossed).  

I've been tinkering lately with "Win Expectancy" stats, like what the good folks over at the Mariners site Lookout Landing have been doing all season long.  Check out one of their impressive graphs representing a full game by win expectancy, like this one.  

I'm not sure how generally useful these stats are (though they seem to provide tremendous insight into late-inning reliever usage), but they are loads of fun nonetheless.  Try this tool to calculate the probability a team will win at any point throughout the game.  

The big event yesterday (as measured by win probabilities, or by common sense), you might have guessed, was J.J. Hardy's tie-breaking home run off of Tim Worrell.  Going into the bottom of the 7th with the game tied, the home team's chance of winning is 60.9%.  Up one run with no out in the bottom of the 7th?  82.1%.  That's a 21.2% increase with one swing of the bat.  

Perhaps the most impressive pitching achievement was de la Rosa's 8th inning.  Entering the top of the 8th the Crew had a 78% chance of victory, but after retiring the side, dlR had turned that into an 89.9% probability.  That's roughly twice as large an increase as Turnbow's 9th, which got the Brewers from 94.4% to 100%.  (After retiring the last batter and having more runs than the other guys, it's a pretty safe bet you'll win!)  

I was planning on coming up with a graph like the Lookout Landing ones last night, but I'll need to think through the presentation a bit more.  As you might be able to tell from what I've written so far, I'm pretty psyched about the concept, so you'll get a chance to read quite a bit about it.  

Oh, and...Go Brewers!