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Game 105 Recap

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Now that's more like it! The Brewers we love to see--Lee, Jenkins, Overbay hitting the ball hard, putting together some rallies, and best-pinch-hitter-in-baseball Wes Helms crushing yet another one.

Perhaps the most encouraging thing from tonight's game, though, is the complete-game effort from Ben Sheets. He's been a bit shaky all year, despite a number of good outings. Now we're seeing the Ben Sheets who is unquestionably worth every dime the Brewers are paying him: 8 K's, 0 BB's, one run in nine innings. True, San Fran doesn't offer him the most powerful lineup in baseball as a challenge, but it's a heck of a good outing.

Now, to the chart:

Ben Sheets had a net increase of 34.4% throughout the game--mostly in little bits, as he kept the Brewers in a tie or close game for quite a while. Here are the offensive stats:

  • Clark, +6.3%
  • Weeks, +4.6%
  • Overbay, -5.1%
  • Lee, +0.2%
  • Jenkins, +19.1%
  • Hall, -2.8%
  • Branyan, -3.6%
  • Moeller, +0.7%
  • Sheets, -7.2%
  • Helms, +1.8%

The big hit of the game, of course, was Jenkins's 3-run double to break the tie in the 6th--that increased the win probability from 71.4% to 94.1%. Brady Clark's RBI double in the 3rd made a big impact, as well, increasing the likelihood of winning by 13.8%.

Sheets's most important pitch of the game was strike 3 on Jason Schmidt in the 2nd. With runners on second and third and a one-run lead, the Giants were one swing of the bat away from blowing the game wide open. Instead, Sheets kept the game close and gave the Crew the chance to get back in it, fast. I should note--many of you are probably thinking this--this is a flaw of the system I'm using, as it doesn't distinguish between good and bad hitters. Realistically, there wasn't a very good chance that Schmidt was going to blow the game open--though I should take care when saying that sort of thing after losing the game on a Brad Hennessey HR the other night. Had Alfonzo pinch-hit at that point, it would've been an entirely different scenario. Either way, it was an important jam to escape, increasing the Crew's win probability by 6.1%.

Now, to send the Giants home with a split and get back within 2 games of .500. The first pitch is less than 16 hours away...