The news is all good: Doug Melvin didn't trade Prince Fielder for a situational lefty; Ned Yost didn't order sac bunts with no one on base; and, most of all, Chris Capuano just pitched one heck of a ballgame.
Cappy earned his 12th win against only 6 losses with eight innings of 2-hit, 1-run baseball. He only struck out 3, while Giants starter Lowry K'd 8, but with only 4 baserunners--only one of which before the 6th inning--you can get the outs whatever way is easiest.
The offense didn't exactly come through so much as they just didn't get out of the way fast enough. Somewhat shockingly, Lowry and Kevin Correia combined for three hit batsmen in the 6th inning. Joined with three walks and a Bill Hall single, that's a recipe for disaster, and it turned what was a very clean pitcher's duel into an ugly inning that all but put the game away for the Crew. Not quite as much fun as a 3-run double from Jenks or a pinch-hit HR from Helms--or even an extra-inning scoreless tie--but the Brewers are back within 2 of .500 and 6.5 games behind the Astros for the wildcard.
I don't think the wildcard is a realistic hope for this team, but then again, the Astros can't really keep this up, and their main competition, the Nationals, are falling out of contention as fast as they can lose games.
Now, to the win probability graph:
Brewers contributions for tonight:
- Clark, -7.7%
- Weeks, +6.4%
- Overbay, -0.4%
- Lee, +2.7%
- Jenkins +10.2%
- Hall, +6.4%
- Miller, -0.6%
- Hardy, -3.6%
- Capuano, -6.2%
- Capuano, +40.5%
- Turnbow +1.5%
The biggest offensive boost for the Crew was the 11.7% impact of the Geoff Jenkins HBP that drove in the go-ahead run. The biggest pitch from Capuano was the Deivi Cruz groundout to end the top of the 6th with a runner on 2nd, increasing the Crew's chances of winning by 5.3%.
I think we're ready to take on the Mets now, don't you? Even Pedro doesn't scare me! (Okay, maybe a little.)