BP released their PECOTA projections (subscriber only) today. Over the next couple days, I'd like to compare some of the more notable/interesting ones with their ZiPS and CHONE counterparts, starting today with the pitchers. You can see how those projection systems stacked up against each other and few others last year here.
Ben Sheets:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 3.36 | 3.66 | 177.7 | 161 | 30 | 170 | 22 | 8.2 | 1.5 | 8.6 | 1.1 |
| ZiPS | 2.88 | 3.14 | 172.0 | 152 | 24 | 174 | 19 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 9.1 | 1.0 |
| CHONE | 3.01 | 3.25 | 155.0 | 139 | 27 | 167 | 16 | 8.1 | 1.6 | 9.7 | 0.9 |
Pretty unbefreakingly awesome across the board, but you knew that already.
Chris Capuano:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 4.43 | 4.77 | 185.7 | 193 | 54 | 144 | 27 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 7.0 | 1.3 |
| ZiPS | 4.11 | 4.50 | 206.0 | 207 | 59 | 154 | 28 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 6.7 | 1.2 |
| CHONE | 3.92 | 4.25 | 195.0 | 194 | 56 | 163 | 26 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 7.5 | 1.2 |
Dave Bush:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 4.14 | 4.51 | 179.7 | 186 | 44 | 128 | 22 | 9.3 | 2.2 | 6.4 | 1.1 |
| ZiPS | 3.79 | 4.14 | 202.0 | 198 | 43 | 146 | 23 | 8.8 | 1.9 | 6.5 | 1.0 |
| CHONE | 3.68 | 4.02 | 197.0 | 194 | 42 | 156 | 23 | 8.9 | 1.9 | 7.1 | 1.1 |
Bush actually projects to be a bit better than Capuano, a result of less walks and a few less home runs allowed. That said, I think Cappy's walk rates are projected a bit high; he made outstanding strides with his control last year (1.9 BB/9 in '06 vs. 3.7 in '04-'05), and even when he was struggling, it was because of hits and home runs, not walks. They'll be a fantastic 2-3 punch behind Sheets next year.
Jeff Suppan:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 4.96 | 5.38 | 147.7 | 166 | 54 | 86 | 20 | 10.1 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 1.2 |
| ZiPS | 4.37 | 4.78 | 177.0 | 191 | 59 | 95 | 23 | 9.7 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 |
| CHONE | 4.77 | 5.18 | 191.0 | 218 | 68 | 111 | 24 | 10.3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 1.1 |
Oof (hat tip to Al). It's interesting how much worse Suppan's control is than starters #1-3, considering his distinct lack of stuff. I guess that's why we're paying his as a fourth starter. Oh wait.
Claudio Vargas:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 4.86 | 5.22 | 128.3 | 135 | 44 | 97 | 20 | 9.5 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 1.4 |
| ZiPS | 5.03 | 5.49 | 154.0 | 159 | 53 | 122 | 26 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 7.1 | 1.5 |
| CHONE | 4.44 | 4.82 | 155.0 | 160 | 56 | 122 | 24 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 7.1 | 1.4 |
Carlos Villanueva:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 4.62 | 4.97 | 148.0 | 145 | 50 | 113 | 25 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 6.9 | 1.5 |
| ZiPS | 4.59 | 5.04 | 157.0 | 159 | 54 | 115 | 25 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 1.4 |
| CHONE | 4.30 | 4.68 | 148.0 | 147 | 58 | 119 | 22 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 1.3 |
In addition to having the same initials, Carlos Villanueva and Claudio Vargas also have very similar stats. Though I don't entirely buy Carlos' projections, both pitchers are projected to have significantly better peripherals than Jeff Suppan. Of course, these are just projections, but it's still pretty disappointing. Also disappointing is the fact that, barring injury, neither has a prayer of unseating Suppan for the #4 spot in the rotation.
Zach Jackson:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZiPS | 5.15 | 5.66 | 159 | 177 | 62 | 86 | 21 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 1.2 |
| CHONE | 4.71 | 5.10 | 120 | 132 | 50 | 70 | 14 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 1.0 |
PECOTA, somewhat inexplicably, doesn't have a projection for Zach Jack, but you don't really need a fancy projection system to tell you he's the Brewers' seventh-best starter.
Overall, I think the Brewers look to have a pretty great starting rotation. Suppan might get too many starts considering his performance relative to the two CVs', but it's hard not to be excited about Sheets, Capuano, and Bush. I'll try to write up something similar for the starting lineup and get it posted tomorrow.
Update [2007-1-17 2:12:4 by battlekow]: Forgot to include Yo:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 4.00 | 4.37 | 140.7 | 125 | 67 | 134 | 14 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 0.9 |
| ZiPS | 4.80 | 5.23 | 148.0 | 150 | 66 | 111 | 19 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 1.2 |
| CHONE | 4.45 | 4.84 | 106.0 | 105 | 58 | 94 | 12 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 1.0 |
Whoa. PECOTA absolutely loves him, but all of them are pretty damn good, considering he's pitched all of a half season above A-ball. The evidence against the Suppan signing mounts.
I considering posting Ben Hendrickson's numbers but...nah.