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Projecting the Bench

After looking at the rotation and starting position players, today I'll see how a bunch of possible bench players project.

The rest of the projections and conclusions are after the jump.

Damian Miller:

Proj AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PECOTA 226 57 15 1 5 23 54 2 0 0 .253 .327 .396
ZiPS 295 73 21 0 5 28 74 4 0 1 .247 .319 .369
CHONE 344 83 21 1 7 35 85 3 0 0 .242 .319 .372

Mike Rivera:

Proj AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PECOTA 264 64 13 1 9 15 52 3 1 1 .242 .289 .401
ZiPS 255 62 12 0 10 15 49 2 2 1 .243 .288 .408
CHONE 318 79 15 1 12 19 63 4 2 2 .248 .299 .416

JD Closser:

Proj AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PECOTA 282 70 16 1 7 33 55 2 4 2 .249 .330 .392
ZiPS 329 80 17 1 8 36 62 3 3 1 .243 .321 .374
CHONE 300 73 15 1 8 35 60 2 3 2 .242 .325 .377

It's creepy how similar Miller's and Closser's projections are. Obviously, Miller is going to be the backup, at least until he gets injured in mid-April, but at least the Brewers have two other relatively capable backups.

Ryan Braun:

Proj AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PECOTA 518 147 35 5 23 42 115 6 19 7 .283 .341 .504
ZiPS 427 112 27 2 15 33 101 5 16 5 .262 .321 .440
CHONE 379 98 23 2 13 27 90 4 15 3 .257 .314 .433

If he can hit anything like these projections, in particular the PECOTA one, he should be playing over Tony Graffanino right now. I'm starting to notice a trend of PECOTA regularly provided the highest--and, in cases like Braun and Corey Hart, far and away the highest--projection.

Corey Koskie:

Proj AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PECOTA 264 68 16 1 11 33 60 3 3 1 .258 .345 .455
ZiPS 297 73 19 0 12 37 69 7 2 1 .246 .340 .431
CHONE 343 82 18 1 14 43 86 6 4 2 .238 .333 .416

Who knows at this point? His health would be the most important question to the team were it not for Braun looming on the horizon.

Vinny Rottino:

Proj AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PECOTA 430 109 22 2 8 29 75 3 7 3 .253 .304 .372
ZiPS 427 113 20 2 6 33 79 4 4 4 .265 .321 .363
CHONE 431 111 21 2 7 34 80 3 7 4 .256 .315 .363

I've only included Vinny's projections because it is somewhat conceivable that he'll make the team as a backup corner infielder if Koskie isn't ready, Braun goes to AAA and the team isn't comfortable with either Counsell backing up three positions or Hall possibly moving back to the infield in the event of an injury to Graffanino.

Craig Counsell:

Proj AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PECOTA 269 69 12 3 2 29 38 4 10 4 .258 .339 .355
ZiPS 459 115 23 3 4 56 65 7 18 5 .251 .338 .340
CHONE 433 107 21 3 5 48 64 7 14 6 .247 .332 .343

Callix Crabbe:
Proj AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PECOTA 474 122 23 4 3 54 61 4 27 8 .257 .337 .342
ZiPS 462 107 21 1 4 57 67 5 15 10 .232 .320 .307
CHONE 451 105 20 3 4 55 69 4 22 8 .232 .320 .313

There's a reason Callix Crabbe, erstwhile middle infield prospect, won't be backing up for the Brewers for a few hundred grand this year while Craig Counsell will be and will make three million doing it, but I'm not sure what that reason is. You may argue that Counsell plays solid defense, which is true, but Crabbe also appears to be a good defender.

Okay, I know: no team in baseball would designate a guy like Crabbe, who hasn't even played at AAA, as their backup infielder, especially behind two fragile starters like Hardy and Weeks. But, uh, Craig Counsell is not good.

Brady Clark:

Proj AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PECOTA 285 77 13 1 6 29 39 5 4 3 .270 .346 .386
ZiPS 368 100 16 1 5 37 50 18 5 5 .272 .364 .361
CHONE 460 119 20 2 8 48 64 13 7 6 .259 .345 .360

Gabe Gross:

Proj AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PECOTA 184 48 11 1 7 26 44 2 3 1 .263 .357 .448
ZiPS 418 111 27 2 10 51 100 4 7 2 .266 .348 .411
CHONE 371 94 22 2 10 51 90 2 5 2 .253 .347 .401

Tony Gwynn Jr:

Proj AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PECOTA 462 118 21 6 5 43 81 3 22 8 .255 .320 .355
ZiPS 553 136 24 4 3 50 104 4 26 14 .246 .310 .320
CHONE 245 63 12 3 2 26 42 2 13 6 .259 .336 .352

Laynce Nix:

Proj AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PECOTA 420 109 23 4 16 26 116 4 4 2 .260 .307 .449
ZiPS 370 92 17 2 13 21 121 6 2 1 .249 .298 .411
CHONE 379 96 18 2 14 21 103 4 3 1 .253 .299 .428

Gabe Gross, as the only corner outfielder in the bunch, will obviously make the team. Tony Gwynn just doesn't look a whole lot like a ML-quality hitter, though his defense mitigates that somewhat. I'd still like to see him get a shot, but with Brady Clark--the Craig Counsell of the outfield--on this team, he won't. It's tough to know what the team thinks of Laynce Nix. Melvin obviously wanted him and he performed well in AAA, then sucked in Milwaukee and got hurt.

Center field is a pretty interesting situation for the Brewers. Regardless of how they view Nix, if there's not room for Gwynn, there's not room for him either. So do they both get sent to Nashville? Who starts? At least Dave Krynzel is gone.

Okay, so who makes the team? It depends on if Koskie is healthy and how many pitchers the team decides to carry. If they go with a 12-man pitching staff, that leaves 5 bench spots. Miller will be the backup catcher, Counsell the backup middle infielder, and Gross the backup corner outfielder regardless. Here's where it gets interesting: if Koskie is healthy, Graffanino takes a bench spot, leaving only one remaining spot for Mench/Jenkins and Clark.

Based on that, I forecast an 11-man pitching staff, in order to shoehorn both the Bench Brothers and their sidekick onto the roster. I'll look at the rest of that pitching staff tomorrow.