Here it is, the one you've all been waiting for. Now that we've gotten lame units like the starting rotation, the starting lineup, and the bench out of the way, we can focus on where the action really is: the bullpen.
The bullpen: where games are won and lost.
The last line of defense against the infidel hordes.
The garbagemen. The heroes. The garbageman heroes.
Francisco Cordero:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 3.30 | 3.58 | 58.0 | 50 | 26 | 63 | 6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 9.8 | 0.9 |
| ZiPS | 3.33 | 3.58 | 73.0 | 61 | 31 | 77 | 5 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 9.5 | 0.6 |
| CHONE | 3.15 | 3.38 | 72.0 | 60 | 30 | 87 | 6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 10.9 | 0.7 |
Outstanding stuff, natch. Check out that K-rate in the CHONE projection. His walk rates look high for the success he's had, but they match his career rates; I thought it was interesting last year how he seemed to strategically walk people, like in the game against Colorado in which Tony Gwynn misplayed a Todd Helton flyball into a leadoff triple in the bottom of the ninth with the Brewers protecting a 1-0 lead. Cordero alternated strikeouts and walks to end the game, and it seemed purposeful.
Derrick Turnbow:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 4.35 | 4.77 | 62.7 | 65 | 55 | 50 | 10 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 1.4 |
| ZiPS | 5.12 | 5.54 | 65.0 | 60 | 41 | 58 | 9 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 1.2 |
| CHONE | 3.86 | 4.22 | 64.0 | 57 | 36 | 69 | 6 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 0.8 |
Holy crap. That PECOTA projection is...amazing. I don't think it's possible to post a 4.35 ERA while walking eight men per nine innings. I mean, even last year he was only at 6.2. PECOTA also thinks his K-rate will fall almost four K/9, from 11 to 7.2, and yet projects his ERA to drop 2.5 ER/9. I don't know if that says more about the ERA statistic or PECOTA. I think we'd all take that CHONE projection in a heartbeat.
Jose Capellan:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 4.10 | 4.45 | 59.7 | 55 | 26 | 50 | 8 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 1.2 |
| ZiPS | 4.16 | 4.55 | 93.0 | 89 | 40 | 69 | 9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 0.9 |
| CHONE | 3.88 | 4.27 | 97.0 | 91 | 45 | 85 | 10 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 7.9 | 0.9 |
Hmmm. If the innings look high on the latter two projections, it's because ZiPS projects him to start nine games and CHONE evidently does as well (it doesn't list GS). Well, you never know, but I doubt it. I've always been bothered by Jose's lack of K's. He was touted as a 100 mph-throwing beast when he came over from the Braves, but instead works in the low- to mid-90s and is dominant only rarely.
Matt Wise:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 4.22 | 4.61 | 44.0 | 44 | 16 | 29 | 5 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 1.0 |
| ZiPS | 3.51 | 3.81 | 59.0 | 54 | 20 | 42 | 6 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 1.0 |
| CHONE | 4.02 | 4.34 | 56.0 | 56 | 19 | 41 | 7 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 1.1 |
Looks like '05 was a mirage for "Wiser" (kill me). Still a useful reliever. If the team plane ever crashes in the Andes, I doubt he'll be of much use though, except maybe as a snowboard.
Greg Aquino:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 4.20 | 4.58 | 48.7 | 45 | 24 | 46 | 6 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 8.5 | 1.1 |
| ZiPS | 4.98 | 5.46 | 56.0 | 52 | 28 | 53 | 7 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 1.1 |
| CHONE | 4.03 | 4.41 | 51.0 | 48 | 24 | 52 | 6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 9.2 | 1.1 |
Very consistent projections, despite the ERA range of almost a run. It's nice to get another pseudo-power arm in the Original Diamondback, but I can't help but look enviously at the Braves. Atlanta acquired Rafael Soriano for essentially nothing (there was going to be another funny image here, but do a Google image search for Horatio Ramirez and you'll get an even funnier joke) and Mike Gonzalez for a replaceable part and got a great SS prospect to boot. Aquino has a live arm, but Soriano and Gonzalez are elite relievers.
Brian Shouse:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 4.17 | 4.60 | 32.0 | 33 | 14 | 18 | 3 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 0.8 |
| ZiPS | 4.40 | 4.79 | 47.0 | 46 | 20 | 32 | 5 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 1.0 |
| CHONE | 5.16 | 5.51 | 49.0 | 58 | 22 | 27 | 6 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 1.1 |
Hopefully you can throw these crappy numbers right out the window. I say that because someone by now should have shown Ned Yost Shouse's splits from last year and his career and Ned will realize that there's no earthly reason that Shouse should be throwing almost as many innings against righties as against lefties. Then again, unless Brady Clark or Geoff Jenkins is moved, the Brewers may be forced to go with the dreaded 11-man staff, which means increased roles for everyone.
Dennis Sarfate:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 5.38 | 5.80 | 73.3 | 75 | 47 | 60 | 10 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 1.2 |
| ZiPS | 5.87 | 6.46 | 138.0 | 144 | 93 | 97 | 18 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 1.2 |
| CHONE | 4.69 | 5.15 | 131.0 | 129 | 88 | 112 | 14 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 1.0 |
All of these projections including a healthy amount of starts: PECOTA has him at 29 G/9 GS, ZiPS at 33/23, and CHONE looks to be similar to ZiPS given the innings. As a reliever, all of his ratios will improve. If he doesn't make the team out of spring training, I have to think he's got next (unless they want a long man, in which case it will be Villanueva or Jackson).
Grant Balfour:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZiPS | 4.34 | 4.66 | 29.0 | 25 | 16 | 32 | 3 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 0.9 |
Apparently, only ZiPS had the temerity to project Grant Balfour. He's a good dark horse candidate, but he has to prove he's recovered from TJ surgery and shoulder soreness.
Steve Bray:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZiPS | 4.28 | 4.61 | 82.0 | 85 | 19 | 65 | 13 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 7.1 | 1.4 |
| CHONE | 4.09 | 4.42 | 59 | 60 | 19 | 50 | 8 | 9.2 | 2.9 | 7.6 | 1.2 |
Here's my real dark horse for next year. Bray has good ratios, and how can you not root for a AAA Rule 5 guy? The Brewers appear to like him too, since they sent him to the Arizona Fall League.
Chris Spurling:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZiPS | 5.04 | 5.46 | 84.0 | 91 | 24 | 38 | 12 | 9.7 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 |
| CHONE | 4.47 | 4.89 | 46.0 | 51 | 13 | 20 | 6 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 |
No.
RA Dickey:
| Proj | ERA | RA | IP | H | BB | K | HR | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | 5.94 | 6.55 | 77.0 | 100 | 29 | 32 | 14 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| ZiPS | 6.70 | 7.36 | 137.0 | 173 | 54 | 62 | 31 | 11.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 |
| CHONE | 5.62 | 6.11 | 134.0 | 166 | 54 | 58 | 23 | 11.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
I stuck Dickey here because, while he isn't likely to pitch for the Brewers at all, I figure he's more likely to break into the pen than the rotation. All of his projections are as a starter, and PECOTA and CHONE are still calibrated with him as a Ranger, so you'd probably see a slight drop in his stats in Milwaukee. Then again, ZiPS has him as a Brewer, so maybe not. 31 homers in 137 innings? That's almost heroic, in a Toxic Avengers sort of way.