Granted, PECOTA doesn't have much of a sample size to work with, but check this out:
- Cole Gillespie: 263/342/419
Fun comparison: the guy right above him in the PECOTA spreadsheet:
- Marcus Giles: 262/342/408
Some other comparisons to gain perspective, which I offer sans comment:
- Gabe Gross: 263/357/448
- Geoff Jenkins: 268/345/452
- Shawn Green: 273/343/424
- Shea Hillenbrand: 281/326/434
If Gillespie matches his projected line (or, rather, the equivalent of that at whatever level he starts in this year), he will get a promotion. Really, really fast. Based on my rough calculation, that projection translates to 301/396/511 in the Southern League, which is a really, really tough league to hit in. (Ryan Braun tore it up in his half-season there, and hit 303/367/589.)
Given the sample size, we can all but throw away that projection. But before we do that, let's let loose with an evil laugh, then dump Jenkins's contract.
(By the way, if you're trying to get something done, stay away from the PECOTA spreadsheet. I was looking for Felix Pie's projection, searched for "pie," found Gillespie, and a half-hour later, here I am. Consider yourself warned.)