I know it isn't a foregone conclusion that Francisco Cordero isn't coming back, but I have to assume that'll be the case. He'll be massively expensive. Either he'll be the best closer on the market, in which case he'll get BJ Ryan money, adjusted upwards for inflation, or he'll be the second-best closer on the market, and the Yankees will get in on the bidding.
Neither one of those scenarios says "home-town discount."
So, armed with my piles of projection databases, I thought we could take a look at who's out there. The list below features, first, the top 100 relievers (defined as pitchers projected for 90 or fewer innings), ranked by ERA.
After the blank line, I included a handful of players who didn't make the cut, but whose names have, or will, come up.
One important note about these: they are as neutral as I can make them. That means, not adjusted for park, not adjusted for league (so guys who have been pitching the AL look better compared to their NL counterparts), and not adjusted for team defense. My system has a lot of steps to eliminate factors like that, and then I add them in before producing the final projections (as in the Shouse, Jenkins, and Gross numbers I've published recently).
In other words, these guys are all on an equal playing field. No benefits for Petco, for the NL Central, or for pitching in front of Orlando Hudson. Or demerits for being a groundball pitcher in Milwaukee.
Finally, I'm confident in my projection of rate stats, but the IP...well, who really cares. In most cases, they are plausible, but the projections are mostly meant to generate rates. And if the ages look weird, that's because I use Jan. 1 as a cutoff instead of July 1.
And yes, feel free to mock me or my system for the Grant Balfour projection. Remember that a large part of what we have to go on for him was his absolute domination in AA and AAA last year. Even adjusted to the majors, those lines make for impressive numbers. Something similar applies to John Bale--I didn't make any effort to adjust or include his Japanese stats.
First Last Age IP Hits HR BB K ERA BAA Joe Nathan 34 74 58 7 20 85 2.98 0.215 J.J. Putz 31 75 61 7 18 81 3.05 0.222 FranciscRodriguez 26 74 56 7 29 93 3.13 0.203 Huston LStreet 25 67 57 6 17 68 3.14 0.228 Bobby Jenks 27 72 60 5 24 72 3.19 0.223 Heath Bell 31 85 75 6 26 79 3.21 0.235 Joakim Soria 24 59 50 5 17 58 3.25 0.226 Takashi Saito 38 66 52 6 19 68 3.28 0.221 JonathanPapelbon 28 73 58 7 20 77 3.28 0.218 Mariano Rivera 39 74 67 6 16 66 3.28 0.239 JonathanBroxton 24 86 72 7 33 90 3.35 0.223 Rafael Betancourt 33 75 69 9 15 72 3.44 0.245 Billy Wagner 37 73 65 7 23 73 3.47 0.239 Scot Shields 33 81 70 7 28 79 3.48 0.232 George Sherrill 31 55 45 5 22 59 3.49 0.222 Cla Meredith 25 82 81 6 19 58 3.50 0.254 Edwar Ramirez 27 59 49 5 26 67 3.51 0.224 FranciscCordero 33 71 63 7 26 76 3.52 0.232 Grant Balfour 31 52 47 4 23 53 3.55 0.236 Pat Neshek 28 77 65 9 24 82 3.56 0.230 John Bale 34 47 44 4 16 42 3.60 0.234 Rich Harden 27 74 66 7 27 72 3.62 0.242 Scott Downs 32 74 72 6 24 62 3.63 0.254 Mike MacDougal 31 58 55 4 24 52 3.65 0.243 Justin Miller 31 62 57 6 23 61 3.65 0.238 Jason Frasor 31 68 62 6 26 65 3.67 0.239 Manuel Corpas 26 76 68 6 20 54 3.67 0.236 Juan Rincon 29 71 68 6 25 64 3.68 0.249 Akinori Otsuka 36 53 51 4 18 41 3.71 0.254 Eric Gagne 32 49 48 5 17 46 3.75 0.249 Hideki Okajima 33 57 51 6 16 48 3.78 0.241 Brad Lidge 32 73 66 8 31 83 3.79 0.237 C.J. Wilson 28 73 66 6 27 63 3.82 0.238 Manny Delcarmen 26 73 63 6 31 66 3.82 0.224 FernandoCabrera 27 62 59 7 26 65 3.83 0.249 Joaquin Benoit 31 82 75 9 31 82 3.83 0.240 Jeremy Accardo 27 73 71 7 23 57 3.87 0.254 Mike Wuertz 30 77 70 8 33 77 3.88 0.239 FernandoRodney 31 63 58 6 24 59 3.90 0.244 Kiko Calero 33 56 55 6 21 52 3.91 0.253 Chad Bradford 34 66 69 5 17 39 3.91 0.266 Scott Atchison 32 69 75 7 21 54 3.91 0.277 Jose Valverde 29 70 65 8 28 72 3.91 0.243 Winston Abreu 31 75 64 8 30 72 3.91 0.225 Jim Hoey 26 59 51 5 26 53 3.93 0.225 Joel Zumaya 24 64 51 6 31 65 3.93 0.215 Pedro Feliciano 32 64 61 5 26 52 3.95 0.252 SantiagoCasilla 28 67 54 7 30 67 3.95 0.208 Rafael Soriano 29 69 62 9 19 64 3.95 0.243 Dan Wheeler 31 76 73 9 24 69 3.95 0.252 Mike Zagurski 25 49 44 4 22 42 3.96 0.232 Frank Francisco 29 58 53 5 26 51 3.96 0.240 Kyle Farnsworth 32 68 66 8 26 67 3.99 0.252 Dennys Reyes 31 52 49 4 23 41 4.01 0.247 Chris Ray 26 61 55 7 21 55 4.02 0.242 Todd Jones 40 67 72 6 19 41 4.04 0.276 Casey Janssen 27 87 87 8 21 52 4.06 0.259 Aaron Heilman 30 88 84 9 27 67 4.06 0.258 Tom Gordon 41 57 58 6 21 47 4.08 0.267 Joel Peralta 32 82 85 10 22 65 4.08 0.269 Justin Speier 35 62 57 8 19 56 4.09 0.242 Javier Lopez 31 63 56 4 27 43 4.09 0.234 Matt Thornton 32 64 62 7 27 59 4.09 0.252 Eric O'Flaherty 23 66 56 5 26 48 4.09 0.220 Matt Capps 25 79 78 10 16 57 4.09 0.259 Matt Guerrier 30 84 84 9 23 60 4.09 0.263 Chad Qualls 30 84 82 8 27 61 4.09 0.263 Boone Logan 24 62 60 6 24 53 4.10 0.246 Tom Mastny 27 68 60 6 30 58 4.10 0.229 Alan Embree 38 67 72 8 20 53 4.11 0.274 Ryan Rowland-Smi25 73 67 7 34 66 4.12 0.233 Jensen DLewis 24 74 64 8 27 63 4.12 0.225 Doug Slaten 28 54 47 5 23 43 4.14 0.227 Andrew Brown 27 77 74 7 36 68 4.14 0.254 Jay Marshall 25 51 51 4 17 30 4.16 0.258 Joe Smith 24 51 49 4 23 42 4.16 0.243 Shawn Camp 33 69 75 7 21 50 4.16 0.269 A.J. Murray 26 72 67 7 29 56 4.16 0.240 Damaso Marte 33 58 53 6 27 56 4.17 0.244 Tim Byrdak 35 61 60 6 30 56 4.17 0.259 Bob Howry 35 79 79 10 21 61 4.17 0.263 Ryan Braun 28 66 60 6 30 53 4.18 0.234 Angel Guzman 27 72 74 7 31 61 4.19 0.263 Kevin Gregg 30 86 85 10 32 75 4.19 0.258 Wes Littleton 26 77 71 7 25 49 4.20 0.242 Ron Mahay 37 72 69 7 33 60 4.21 0.248 Jason Davis 28 73 75 6 29 50 4.21 0.257 Sean Green 29 77 72 5 36 52 4.21 0.247 Lee Gardner 33 77 77 8 23 49 4.21 0.261 Kyle Snyder 31 78 78 8 26 56 4.21 0.252 JonathanSanchez 26 79 68 8 38 75 4.21 0.224 Will Ohman 31 58 56 6 27 53 4.22 0.247 Geoff Geary 32 86 92 8 25 53 4.22 0.275 Randy Flores 33 60 67 7 21 49 4.23 0.277 Kerry Wood 31 45 44 5 19 39 4.24 0.254 Jorge Julio 29 70 72 8 31 65 4.24 0.259 Derrick Turnbow 30 71 64 7 39 70 4.24 0.241 Chris Schroder 30 74 67 8 35 72 4.24 0.235 Al Reyes 38 56 53 8 19 54 4.25 0.250 Bob Wickman 39 59 64 6 20 41 4.25 0.272 Octavio Dotel 35 41 43 5 17 39 4.27 0.261 Scott Linebrink 32 75 78 9 25 57 4.28 0.273 Ryan Dempster 31 75 74 7 35 60 4.29 0.259 Jon Rauch 30 84 82 11 27 66 4.33 0.259 Brian Fuentes 33 69 63 8 28 63 4.36 0.245 Troy Percival 39 48 43 6 17 37 4.41 0.242 Chad Cordero 26 79 77 11 25 62 4.47 0.256 Tony Pena 26 86 82 10 28 54 4.57 0.251 Matt Wise 33 61 62 8 22 45 4.61 0.263 Armando Benitez 36 55 58 8 28 45 5.04 0.272