FanPost

FIP for Brewers Pitchers

First of all, these are calculated using 3.2 as the constant, so they will be off by a little bit (something like 0.02 or 0.03) from The Hardball Times' numbers.

Here's the numbers for the starters (relief innings by guys like Bush & Capuano not included):

                                           Milwaukee Brewers
        Name         Starts    IP      HR      BB       K     HBP     FIP    IP/GS  Outs/GS
  Yovani Gallardo      17    101.0      8      35      93      2      3.49    5.94     18
    Manny Parra         2      9.0      0       5       6      1      3.87    4.50     14
     Ben Sheets        24    141.3     17      37     106      1      4.07    5.89     18
   Chris Capuano       25    135.0     15      51     121      8      4.16    5.40     16
    Jeff Suppan        34    206.7     18      68     114     11      4.38    6.08     18
     Dave Bush         31    183.3     27      42     133     11      4.53    5.91     18
 Carlos Villanueva      6     35.0      4      17      25      0      4.71    5.83     18
   Claudio Vargas      23    121.7     22      52      99      2      5.25    5.29     16
    Total Starts      162    933.0    111     307     697     36      4.36    5.76     17

The average NL starter had an FIP of 4.61, so only Carlos Villanueva and Claudio Vargas were below average for the league. The average starter also lasted 5.73 innings per start, so for all we heard about the starters not lasting long enough, they were right at league average. Using the league average FIP and the league average IP/GS, a league average start would be something like 5.2 IP, 0 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 0 HBP (among others, 5.2-1-3-7-0 also works). The quintessential league average start this season was made by Chad Billingsley on September 23.

Anyway, back to the topic of Brewers starters. I think this table shows just how good Yovani Gallardo was. It's hard to replace Ben Sheets and actually be an improvement, no? Speaking of Sheets, it's surprising how close he was to the rest of the pack. It's been covered how the back half of the rotation is better than what their ERA's show, so I won't get into that beyond saying this table is confirmation.

Here's the numbers for guys coming out of the pen:

Milwaukee Brewers
       Name        Games     IP     HR      BB      K      HBP     FIP
 Yovani Gallardo      3      9.3     0       2       8      0      2.13
Francisco Cordero    66     63.3     4      18      86      1      2.21
   Brian Shouse      73     47.7     0      14      32      2      2.86
   Seth McClung      14     12.0     0       5      11      1      2.87
   Manny Parra        7     17.3     1       7      20      1      3.03
  Claudio Vargas      6     12.7     1       2       8      0      3.44
 Derrick Turnbow     77     68.0     4      46      84      2      3.61
    Matt Wise        56     53.7     5      17      43      1      3.81
  Mitch Stetter       6      5.0     0       2       4      2      4.00
 Scott Linebrink     27     25.3     3      11      25      0      4.07
   Greg Aquino       15     14.0     2       5      12      0      4.41
    Dave Bush         2      3.0     0       2       1      0      4.53
     Ray King        12      6.0     1       3       7      0      4.53
  Chris Spurling     49     50.0     6      14      28      2      4.60
Carlos Villanueva    53     79.3    12      36      74      3      4.78
  Elmer Dessens      12     15.0     3       3      12      0      4.80
  Jose Capellan       7     12.0     2       6       8      0      5.53
  Chris Capuano       4     15.0     5       3      11      0      6.67
  Grant Balfour       3      2.7     1       4       3      1     11.45
   Total Relief     159    511.3    50     200     477     16      3.87

Wow, Grant Balfour sucked. He wasn't quite as bad as Dan Serafini, though, what with his 30.27 FIP. Regardless, Gallardo appears at the top of this list, too, though he only had a few relief innings. Overall, the Brewers bullpen was excellent, easily outpacing the NL average of 4.20 and trailing only San Diego (3.67) and Los Angeles (3.70). The only other team under 4.00 was the Cubs, at 3.88 almost identical to the Brewers.

A big deal is made about the roles played by each reliever, whether it's a closer or setup guy or "6th inning guy." I decided to look at Brewers relievers by FIP after entering in a certain inning. What this means is if Chris Spurling enters in the sixth inning and pitches two innings, he gets a total of two innings in the sixth inning column simply because his "role" was to come into the game in the sixth inning in that situation.

The bullpen FIP in each inning is simply the sum of each reliever's innings pitched after entering in a certain inning time his season FIP divided by the bullpen's total innings pitched after entering in that inning. The bullpen FIP after entering is given by the bullpen FIP in each inning times the bullpen innings after entering in that inning summed up and then divided by the sum of all innings thrown by the pen, excluding those by pitchers entering in extra innings. I sum all innings since once a reliever comes in, it's up to the bullpen to finish the game, obviously. I exclude extra innings because you can only expect to go nine innings.

Here's how the Brewers ended up:

  • 1st-4th inning: 46.3 IP, 4.46 FIP in inning, 3.87 after entering in inning.
  • 5th inning: 26.0 IP, 4.28, 3.80
  • 6th inning: 50.0 IP, 4.04, 3.77
  • 7th inning: 131.7 IP, 4.07, 3.74
  • 8th inning: 134.0 IP, 3.92, 3.55
  • 9th inning: 98.0 IP, 3.05, 3.05
  • Extra innings: 25.3 IP, 3.99, 3.99
  • If you don't like the way that's formatted, here's a table of each reliever and their "usage pattern," i.e., what innings they were usually called upon.

                     Innings Pitched After Entering In Inning
           Name         FIP     0-4      5       6       7       8       9      10+
     Yovani Gallardo    2.13    7.3     0.0     0.0     2.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
    Francisco Cordero   2.21    0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     4.0    56.3     3.0
       Brian Shouse     2.86    0.0     0.0    11.3    19.0    13.3     3.0     1.0
       Seth McClung     2.87    0.0     0.0     3.0     7.3     1.0     0.7     0.0
       Manny Parra      3.03    9.3     4.7     0.0     0.0     2.3     0.0     1.0
      Claudio Vargas    3.44    4.0     2.0     1.7     4.0     0.0     0.0     1.0
     Derrick Turnbow    3.61    0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0    57.3     7.7     3.0
        Matt Wise       3.81    2.0     4.0     7.7    23.3    12.0     2.7     2.0
      Mitch Stetter     4.00    0.0     2.0     0.0     1.0     0.3     1.3     0.3
     Scott Linebrink    4.07    0.0     0.0     0.0    15.7     7.7     2.0     0.0
       Greg Aquino      4.41    0.0     0.0     1.0     1.7     4.3     5.0     2.0
        Dave Bush       4.53    0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     3.0
         Ray King       4.53    0.0     0.0     0.0     1.0     3.0     2.0     0.0
      Chris Spurling    4.60    0.0     0.0     4.7    15.0    12.0    13.3     5.0
    Carlos Villanueva   4.78    7.7     7.0    18.7    36.3     6.7     1.0     2.0
      Elmer Dessens     4.80    1.0     2.0     0.0     3.0     6.0     2.0     1.0
      Jose Capellan     5.53    0.0     4.3     2.0     1.7     2.0     1.0     1.0
      Chris Capuano     6.67   15.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
      Grant Balfour    11.45    0.0     0.0     0.0     0.7     2.0     0.0     0.0
       Total Relief     3.87   46.3    26.0    50.0   131.7   134.0    98.0    25.3
    Relief FIP in inning       4.46    4.28    4.04    4.07    3.92    3.05    3.99
    Relief FIP afterward       3.87    3.80    3.77    3.74    3.55    3.05    3.99

    The guys you would expect (long relievers/starters) entered the game before the fifth usually. A mixture of guys entered in the fifth, but surprisingly not often. Shouse, Wise and Villanueva combined for the sixth. Villanueva, Wise, Shouse, and Linebrink were the main culprits in the seventh. Turnbow got the eighth and Cordero was the ninth - but that's nothing you don't already know.

    Here's the NL average for each inning, both in the inning and after entering in the inning:

    1st-4th inning: 4.78 in inning, 4.18 after entering in inning
    5th inning: 4.54, 4.13
    6th inning: 4.35, 4.10
    7th inning: 4.20, 4.05
    8th inning: 4.04, 3.98
    9th inning: 3.91, 3.91
    Extra innings: 4.15, 4.15

    This means the Brewers were better across the board.

    Whew, that's a lot of numbers.