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Gallardo Madness

I realize not everyone here has a Baseball Prospectus subscription, but if only for Nate Silver and Will Carroll, you should get one.  Hell, you should pony up for either one of them.

Today, Nate takes on righty pitching prospects.  Yovani Gallardo ranks fourth overall--that's behind Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Lincecum, and Philip Hughes.  That's it.  Matsuzaka is a special case, and Lincecum merits a couple of paragraphs from Nate because of the very limited sample thus far.  However you slice it, the stats like Yo just as much as the scouts do.

More so, in fact.  You may note that Homer Bailey isn't among those who rank higher.  He's down at #7, behind--get this!--Will Inman.  The Brewers only have two guys among the top 66 (compare that to the Devil Rays, who seem to have about half all by themselves), but both in the top six.  Wow.  Here's what Nate has to say about Inman:

There are three other players that make up what amounts to PECOTA's top tier of right-handed pitching prospects. One of these--the Twins' Matt Garza--is no surprise, while Will Inman and Jeremy Hellickson are regarded quite a bit more favorably by PECOTA than they are by scouts. Inman and Hellickson have similar profiles; both were dominant last year in spite of being very young for their leagues, but get merely decent grades for their stuff. They also both get compared to Roy Oswalt since they're a little bit undersized, though of course that is a best-case scenario. Baseball America damned Inman with faint praise, describing his "best case" outcome as Joel Pineiro, while Hellickson doesn't crack their Top 100 at all (nor did Hellickson make Kevin Goldstein's list). As is usually the case, PECOTA probably goes too far to the other extreme, and the truth lies somewhere in between.

Really interesting stuff, as always.  And I would say that even if the system didn't like Gallardo and Inman so much.