It's not as big of a story now that the Brewers are no longer on pace for 116 victories, but we're still two games better than our run differential would suggest. However, as we've discussed for the last month, there may be legitimate reasons for that...causes that don't necessarily mean that it'll all even out in the end.
David Gassko looks at some of those factors today, and here's what he finds:
Each "leveraged win" will add .48 games per season above what is expected. For 95% of all teams, the impact of this category will be within 2.67 wins.
For each 1,000 games managed, the manager adds 0.25 wins per season above what is expected of the team. For 95% of all teams, the impact of this category will be within 0.61 wins.
Balanced lineup? Check. (Just imagine when Ryan Braun arrives!) The leveraged win business basically measures how effectively the most highly leveraged relievers (usually closers) have performed, so...leveraged wins? Check. Manager experience? Itty bitty check.
It's worth reading the whole thing to understand what the heck he's talking about, but the short version is that there are some statistical reasons why the Brewers should be outperforming their run differential, and unless Coco Cordero starts melting down, those reasons aren't going to go away anytime soon.