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Where We Are

You know, after today's 4-3 extra inning loss to the Braves, I wonder if Bobby Cox is still going to give Ned Yost his Manager of the Year vote.  In spite of having positional players bunt with two strikes (never mind the fact that they couldn't get the bunt down originally), I think he does.  With these guys, it's all about loyalty, and not what your lying eyes show you.

On a not unrelated note, anyone want to look up our record when we pull Braun for a defensive replacement?  I'm not saying it would have helped today, or that I know what the result would be --- I just have suspicions.

Anyway, where we are.

  • The Flubs.  The Cubs are 82-73.  They have a game in Wrigley against the Rats tomorrow, a day off to contemplate their inevitable Buc loss, and then two three-game road series against the Marlins and Reds to close out the season.
  • The Cream City Crushers.  We are 79-75.  We have Capuano pitching tomorrow to finish off the Braves series (not to mention the Braves' chances of making the playoffs --- that's right, I'm calling for a Cappy win tomorrow), and we have 7 at Miller Park, three against the Cardinals and 4 against the Padres.
The Cubs' magic number is 6.

The Cubs are a .500-ish team on the road (most road wins in the NL Central).  Let's say they win 4 out of the next 7.  They'd finish the season at 86-76, 10 games over .500.

For us to finish the season at 86-76 (and necessitate a tiebreaker in Wrigley), we need to go 7-1 over the final 8 games.  (Man, losing today's game hurts.)  The most likely scenario (to me) is winning tomorrow, sweeping the Cards, and only dropping one to the Padres.

If the Cubs finish 5-2, we have to win out, starting tomorrow.  If they finish 6-1, then we're out.

I don't think they are going to go 6-1.  In that sense, although the Cubs control their own destiny, I think if we win out, we'll force an extra game, if not win the division outright. Even if we lose one more game, it's reasonable to hope that the Cubs split their 6 final road games.  If we win 6 or fewer of the final 8, then we need to Cubs to finish the season in a sub-.500 swoon --- not at all out of the question for this beleaguered franchise, but not very likely with their recent play.

Go Brewers!